2018-19 team win projection contest

[eminence]

Finished up tonight, I'll give the Wolves tomorrow and if they don't make a move will probably put my projections up on Saturday.

[eminence]

Some feel just a bit wonky, but here goes, got to get something on the table.

Raptors 60
Celtics 57
Pacers 51
Sixers 50
Bucks 49
Wizards 44
Heat 42
Hornets 39
Pistons 38
Cavaliers 34
Nets 30
Magic 27
Hawks 26
Knicks 24
Bulls 23

Rockets 60
Warriors 57
Jazz 54
Pelicans 51
Nuggets 50
Thunder 46
Lakers 44
Blazers 42
Clippers 40
Wolves 39
Spurs 38
Grizzlies 32
Mavs 31
Kings 27
Suns 25

[Crow]

At the moment, my biggest variances with your projections are that I am higher on the Griz, Warriors and Rockets and lower on Kings, Hawks and Mavs.

[eminence]

At the moment, my biggest variances with your projections are that I am higher on the Griz, Warriors and Rockets and lower on Kings, Hawks and Mavs.

Thoughts on where we might defer:

Warriors/Rockets - I wound up reeling in my highest numbers just a bit and kind of expect them both to dog it this regular season.

Grizzlies - Tough one, wasn't sure how to handle the return of Conley. The Conley I'm imagining returning to them isn't what he once was.

Kings - They really really sucked at getting to the line last season and that's something I project young teams to improve at, we'll see if it happens.

Hawks - Not sure on this one, how low are you thinking on them? 3-4 wins lower wouldn't be much of a big deal. Can't really recommend projecting any team much lower than that.

Mavs - They were like record breakingly good/bad at losing more games than their statistics said they would. Without the not so stealth tank (probably?, maybe there's a real issue there I'm not seeing) I can't see them not taking a solid step forward in the win column.

[Crow]

I have the Hawks at 18 wins, up from my first mark at 16. But this is just a start. I will have to review more closely. I have the Griz at 39 right now. That maybe best case rather than average case; but my gut is thinking good things for them.

[Cicada]

So is wintotals not happening this year? It’s my first year here by the way and I’m excited to see how this works out

[Crow]

It is happening with whoever enters. Some may post here at the end. Some may have moved on. Thirty-some hours left to deadline.

[Jinxed]

Here are mine:

Warriors 64
Raptors 57
Jazz 56
Rockets 55
Celtics 54
Sixers 52
Thunder 51
Nuggets 50
Bucks 49
Lakers 46
Wizards 45
T-Wolves 44
Pelicans 44
Pacers 44
Heat 43
Spurs 41
Blazers 40
Hornets 39
Pistons 37
Clippers 36
Nets 36
Grizzlies 33
Mavericks 32
Cavaliers 32
Magic 27
Knicks 25
Hawks 25
Bulls 25
Suns 25
Kings 21

[RyanRiot]

Didn't make any changes to my models from last year, season snuck up on me. Also wish this Butler trade was sorted out, but here goes:

Code: Select all

GSW	62
HOU	56.4
TOR	55.9
BOS	54.5
PHI	52.5
UTA	51.3
OKC	49.7
DEN	48.8
MIL	46
MIN	45.7
WAS	45.6
LAL	45.3
IND	44.9
NOH	44.8
MIA	41
SAS	40.9
POR	40.1
DET	39.2
CHA	37
LAC	35.8
MEM	33.6
NJN	33.6
ORL	32
DAL	31.3
CLE	31
CHI	28.4
PHO	26.9
NYK	26.4
ATL	25.5
SAC	23.7

[Crow]

Are you entering Cicada? Dive in if you want to.

I am still working on mine.

[shadow]

Here's my entry:

Code: Select all

ATL	23.13
BOS	56.33
BRK	32.63
CHA	36.85
CHI	28.78
CLE	31.08
DAL	34.43
DEN	47.53
DET	38.82
GSW	60.68
HOU	55.38
IND	47.08
LAC	36.05
LAL	45.55
MEM	33.81
MIA	42.81
MIL	46.66
MIN	42.28
NOP	44.88
NYK	27.76
OKC	47.88
ORL	30.93
PHI	52.24
PHX	27.99
POR	41.80
SAC	25.43
SAS	41.88
TOR	55.31
UTA	49.94
WAS	44.08

(Edited once 10/16 at 4:15 PM ET with minor tweaks)

[Cicada]

Yes, I'll have mine posted sometime today. I thought I had it finished and then for some reason the Hornets were the worst team... at 20 wins. I may end up submitting it as is if I can't find time later.

[Cicada]

Code: Select all

GSW	67.50
TOR	60.86
HOU	59.99
PHI	57.68
MIN	57.00
UTA	55.12
BOS	53.72
DEN	50.09
IND	48.79
NOP	46.18
MIL	45.44
LAL	45.04
WAS	44.81
OKC	42.09
POR	41.40
SAS	40.48
MIA	39.45
LAC	36.37
DET	35.24
BRK	31.71
MEM	31.37
CLE	30.91
CHA	30.69
DAL	30.24
NYK	29.38
ORL	26.85
ATL	26.01
SAC	22.59
CHI	21.65
PHO	21.37

This will be my final edit. Jimmy Butler is assumed to play on the Wolves this entire season in my projections, clearly.

[jgoldstein34]

My final PIPM win projections for the year. Best of luck to everyone.

I treated Butler as a free agent, replaced his minutes with an average backup wing. Feel the Butler fiasco will be a large source of error for all of us this year.

Code: Select all

ATL	27.36
BOS	55.04
BRK	32.54
CHO	40.59
CHI	29.85
CLE	33.62
DAL	33.05
DEN	50.49
DET	41.90
GSW	64.06
HOU	55.55
IND	44.75
LAC	35.99
LAL	43.52
MEM	33.66
MIA	40.29
MIL	43.49
MIN	41.34
NOP	41.97
NYK	25.79
OKC	47.97
ORL	31.71
PHI	52.32
PHO	26.93
POR	39.54
SAC	22.26
SAS	36.97
TOR	59.84
UTA	55.20
WAS	42.42

[Crow]

Final
ATL 26
BOS 55
BRK 28
CHA 45
CHI 24
CLE 36
DAL 34
DEN 46
DET 35
GSW 63
HOU 58
IND 46
LAC 44
LAL 44
MEM 34
MIA 44
MIL 49
MIN 37
NOP 45
NYK 21
OKC 42
ORL 26
PHI 55
PHX 21
POR 48
SAC 18
SAS 44
TOR 57
UTA 57
WAS 48
1230