2019 playoffs

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Crow
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2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:16 am

I assume Bucks make it to Eastern finals. Maybe not if an opposing coach has a very good game plan on Giannis and / or defending the 3 point line.

Who would be toughest opponent? I haven't looked close enough to say with conviction, yet. I might be over-rating them but at the moment I kinda think it might be the Sixers. Their ability to get to the foul line a lot gives an advantage that might supercede their shortcomings.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:45 am

I dunno how big a deal Brogdon's injury will be. But it could make any other bad break mean more.

They have been down some in last 10 games from previous level. Mirotic is not shooting well. Gasol not on track at all.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:21 pm

Mirotic hurt for awhile. Giannis at the moment. Could hold together or slip away.

Spurs and Clippers playing their best basketball. Thunder their worst. Who gets the 8th seed? Thunder probably the favorites. Maybe by a lot. Haven't checked tiebreakers.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:10 am

Celtics shoot a lot of 3s. Very little from FT line and at the rim. Not much of an offensive rebounding team because they don't play their best offensive rebounders much and perhaps the prefer to get back.

Defense is very good but not amazing at anything.

Starting lineup is good but a number of contenders have far better performing ones.

16th best record against Sagarin top 10. 15th best against top 16.

First round loss is strong prospect. 1-1 against Pacers. Two upcoming games will foreshadow the probable playoff showdown. Pacers about as Wes against good teams. Homecourt could be pivotal.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:26 pm

Kanter with the other traditional starters is mildly weak. Only got 35 minutes of testing. Coulda / shoulda had more over 23 games of opportunity.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:11 pm

The only 3 teams with an offensive rating above 110 and a defensive rating below 110 are Bucks, Rockets and Warriors. That is really lenient criteria. Few teams with balance at this point.

Sixers, Raptors and Celtics have good net ratings and that could work but the deficiency on one side of the court could be problematic later if it continues.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:14 pm

Not that it is a huge regular season gap (4 possessions / gm) but Blazers have kept pace at their average vs Thunder. Blazers with the highest rate of shots at the rim but the second worst at finishing them.

Warriors with the second lowest rate of shots at rim but best at finishing them.

Warriors and Spurs lead playoffs on rate of long 2s taken (16-23 feet), at about 10 times the Rockets' rate. Warriors second best at hitting them. Spurs barely above median. Spurs 2nd highest of shots from 3-10 feet and tops at hitting them. 2nd of shot rte from 10-16 but well below average on hitting them.

Sixers with a massive FT rate. More than double the Raptors and nearly 3 times the Pistons. Warriors doing well here too.

Rockets lead on 3pt rate, up slightly from last playoffs but the gap to #2 is smaller. Spurs with way less than half the Rockets rate.

Bucks , Rockets and Warriors with best fg%. Favorites to get to finals for that huge reason and of course others. Thunder with the 12th ranked efg%. Jazz 15th.

Sixers with almost double the OR% of Bucks and more than that compared to the very worst ranked Pacers.

A handful of teams have good defensive efg% allowed marks. We'll see who keeps it into second round and beyond.

Clippers lead on opponent turnovers. Almost double what the Spurs and Nuggets have seen.

Bucks with a FT/FGA rate not much more than 1/3rd of th eNets.

There is a lot of variation in these factors by team.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:32 pm

D Rusell leads everyone on fgas. That is misplay and mismanagement of play.

T Young leads on steals. J Grant on blocks.

Stephen Curry with a ts% of .818! That is very close to the all-time highest for guys over 50 minutes and 20 shots in playoffs. Use slightly higher qualifications and it is the best. And a efg% of .767. Again very close to all-time best or best depending on where you set the qualifications.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:03 pm

Harden leads on BPM followed by Bledsoe and Curry. Giannis in 8th at only about 60% as strong. (Might affect MVP vote if not already taken.) Irving and PJ Tucker in top 5.

Kawhi 30th. Durant 31st right now. Westbrook 33rd. D Russell 86th of 89 minutes qualifers. D Mitchell dead last amongst qualifiers.

Mike G
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Mike G » Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:27 pm

If he keeps it up, Steph may end up somewhere on this list of best TS% @ most FGA:

Code: Select all

TS%   FGA    player         yr   tm
1.500   3   V Radmanovic   2013  Chi
1.125   4   Jordan McRae   2016  Cle
1.090   6   Glenn Robinson 2017  Ind
.928   10   Jim Brewer     1980  Por
.891   21   Meyers Leonard 2015  Por

.831   48  James Donaldson 1986  Dal
.815   57   Chris Andersen 2013  Mia
.791   69   Channing Frye  2016  Cle
.747   71  Stephen Jackson 2012  SAS
.723   88   Danny Schayes  1988  Den

.719  112  Khris Middleton 2018  Mil
.683  268   Kevin Durant   2017  GSW
.668  340   LeBron James   2014  Mia
.649  384   LeBron James   2017  Cle
.619  510   LeBron James   2018  Cle

.571  581   Michael Jordan 1992  Chi
.480  661   Allen Iverson  2001  Phl
If you make a 3 and get fouled, and make the FT, your TS% is less than 1.50, like 1.39.
And how about this? --

Code: Select all

Curry  fga   fta    Pts    TS%
Steph   45    20    88    .818
Seth    11     3    20    .812
Steth   56    23   108    .817
Combined, the sons of Dell would in fact penetrate the list, with more shots than JD and better % than Bird Man.

shadow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by shadow » Mon Apr 22, 2019 5:00 pm

Playoff only RAPM for anyone who's interested. Obviously super small sample size alert applies.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:48 pm

Harden 22nd.



Drummond last. D Russell fourth form last place. SGA, 10th from last. Aaron Gordon, 12th lowest. Steven Adams, bottom 10%. Gobert and K Thompon, bottom 20%. Maintain your commitments and mythology or re-examine them? Yeah they are small sample. Don't simply accept as gospel of course of course, but look at what you can find for and against positive impact now and whole career.

DeRozan and J Brown, bottom 25%. Milsap, average for qualified players. Austin Rivers helping (?) Same for Kanter. B Griffin, barely any help. Same estimated for Jokic. Westbrook, bottom 15%.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:24 am

Magic below median on 6 "factors" in playoffs including all 4 on offense. Pistons, Thunder, Spurs and Nets, 5. Clippers 7. Rocket 4. Warriors 1 (worst ft/fga allowed). Bucks, 2. Celtics 4. Raptors, 2. Sixers 3. Blazers 3. Nuggets 3. Pacers, 4. Jazz 4. And I missed one.

Mike G
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Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Mike G » Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:53 pm

Avg on-court age of remaining teams:

Code: Select all

tm    age
Hou   29.2
GSW   28.4

Tor   27.3
Phl   26.4

Mil   26.9
Bos   25.7

Por   26.2
Den   24.9

NBA   26.4
Hou and GS are the oldest and 3rd-oldest teams in the league now, by player representation on court (minutes weighted). Spurs were #2
Den is the only contender of the 10 youngest teams.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:16 am

If GSW or Hou win (pretty likely), then traditional age pattern for champs is maintained. Bucks would be tied as youngest. Anybody else would be youngest in modern times, though maybe just by a fraction. The youngest was Bulls at 26.9. With more roster spots and a little more rest of players the current minutes weighted team ages might be a little lower for those reasons. It might make sense for team ages to be based on playoff ages and weighed minutes. If any care enough to adjust to that. I probably don't at this point.

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