2018-19 season commentary

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Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:59 pm

Knicks into last place. Weakest on the factors that matter most- own efg% and efg% allowed. Headed into summer looking awful.

Some strength at getting to line and limiting own turnovers. Latter factor may not last, affected by trades and probable coming departures.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:32 pm

Kawhi Leonard 306th on DRPM. Much worse than average opponent 3pt FG%. That makes worse on this in 3 of last 5 full seasons, negligible difference in one, better in one. This season opponents better from mid-range, about same inside. Great DRPM in 2015-16, then it fell away in steps. No recovery on DRPM this season, actually his worst. Some other metrics have him as ok to good on D. Not sure any have him as truly elite anymore. Steal rate is good but way down from peak.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:22 pm

Morey extension with give him 13th - 17th try for title.

Two conference finals appearances is pretty good but short of goal. Averaging 0.6 playoff series won per season for career. That isn't very high.

Presti with 4 conference finals, one win. 0.8 playoff series won per season. When will his contract get renewed or disclosed?

Popovich / Buford won 1.6 playoff series per season. 5 titles, 5 more conference finals appearances.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:55 pm

James Dolan: "New York City is the mecca of basketball"

I have heard this said many times but I don't agree. Perhaps it was in the 50s or before but not in my lifetime. North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, Kansas, Chicago, Boston, LA, San Antonio all have claims, greater imo than NYC. By far. For results, fan enthusiasm and most for grassroots play.

New Yorkers can make their claim too if they want. But I don't buy it. Certainly not as THE center. MSG may be special to some, many. Haven't been. Not special to me or enough for the title. It's a building. That hasn't seen MUCH good play for last 30-40 years and no NBA titles in 45 years.


Will KD, Kyrie, Kemba, some star(s) go there this summer? I dunno. I doubt they win a title there. It probably falls short and could easily become a huge mess. Raise the expectations and that seems more likely than not.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:59 pm

I would give Deyonta Davis another shot in NBA. probably Willie Reed too. There are worse bigs in the league.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:24 am

Will Melo play again this season or ever? Not that it is a priority concern of mine, just a curiosity.

Pistons, Magic, Blazers, Clippers might be more likely to consider it. Each with reasons to not do it. Clippers might have the least reasons to not do it, as long as it is understood that it is a short-term move.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:48 pm

Currently 11 teams have a net rating of plus 3 or better. For previous season end net ratings, it has been 9 years since this level was reached and 12 years since it was exceeded. The past 3 years it has been 7-8.

Plus 3 seems like a responsible minimum for "contender" designation. Top contenders will usually be higher. Someone might step up from lower but not often. May see some playoff upsets.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:03 am

League awards are usually driven by a few per game stats. Trae Young has shared 3 Rookie of the Month awards. He has yet to have a month with a positive individual net rating or a positive on the court plus minus. But big minutes, big role and big usage equals big per minute stats. Better shooting and plus minus lately, maybe worthy of such award... if he keeps it up in March.

For season he is near -2 on BPM and -3 on RPM.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:30 am

Thunder falling. Not so long ago looking at 3rd seed. Now need to snap back to avoid falling to 7th or 8th. Some might want 7th seed but it is tricky because Nuggets and Warriors might swap 1 & 2 seeds.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:45 pm

Crow wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:59 pm
I would give Deyonta Davis another shot in NBA. probably Willie Reed too. There are worse bigs in the league.
Davis to the Hawks.


Who is going to pick up C Wood?

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:27 am

I Thomas is unlikely to get what he wants, a starting or big minute, high usage job next season. Maybe the Suns will give him a look or try next season. But they didn't last off season. Probably don't want to crowd their precious star Booker.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:14 am

Bottom 17 on RPM, 3 who played with Cavs, Knicks, Bulls. 2 for Suns. That's most of the spots. Knox has the worst estimate now.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:13 am

Dennis Smith doing poorly in New York. Like all of Fizdale's and Mills / Perry's PGs.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:25 am

Bamba has decent boxscore stats but horrendous plus minus and on / off. Horrendous player pairs with entire core. Neutral when with 4 of the starters though. Next season might want to make him an early sub. Assuming both he and Vucevic are still there. Vucevic has good plus minus with most of the bench.

Magic need a lot. The Fultz gamble will be the focus but is not the only thing to watch.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Mar 24, 2019 4:02 am

Why didnt Kings make playoffs? Too much competition, not enough elite factors. Didnt turn it over and forced turnovers but average to poor rebounding, very poor shot selection and only average at hitting them. Not enough FT makes, too many fouls. Too much average to bad. At player level, a lot seem good or good enough... but they weren't. Bogdanovic wasn't enough.

Were they an analytically savvy team? By their results I'd say more no than yes. Beyond the factors, their 3 most used lineups were negative. Not by a lot but negative. The next four lineups were good to great. But they didnt use them enough, then traded away players in them.

They escaped the basement and that was enough to get some good press. Will they be better next season? They'll need to be. Expectations are up now. Plenty of obvious stuff that needs fixing.

Playing fast, very fast was it right choice? I dunno. As underdogs it might not have been wise or wise enough. We'll see if there is any change on pace.

At raw player pair level they seem broadly decent. Some of the bigger issues are with Bogdanovic. But the larger issue may be that there are no super pairs. Just ok to mildly good ones. They'll need player development and / or some new players in the mix.

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