player rankings 2019-20

[Mike G]

Equivalent wins added, or eWins, projected to the full 82 games

Code: Select all

e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
21.7   Karl-A Towns   Min  .644   35.9  14.1   6.1   3.3   2.6  2.2   3.80
18.4   Anthony Davis  LAL  .569   34.9  13.8   3.4   1.1   3.0  3.3   3.27
17.9   Kyrie Irving   Brk  .604   38.6   5.9   6.7   1.8   2.3   .7   3.05
16.4   Kawhi Leonard  LAC  .603   34.0   8.7  10.9   2.2   3.9  1.6   3.36
16.1   Giannis A      Mil  .545   26.0  13.9  11.3   1.6   5.3  2.0   3.03

15.7   R Westbrook    Hou  .584   23.8  12.5  11.9   1.4   4.3   .4   2.73
14.7   LeBron James   LAL  .567   29.4   6.6  12.1    .8   4.5   .6   2.67
14.4   Damian Lillard Por  .577   31.0   4.9   5.8   1.2   2.2   .7   2.29
13.7   Andre Drummond Det  .604   21.8  18.3   1.5   1.8   3.7  2.4   2.32
13.1 Donovan Mitchell Uta  .593   32.1   5.7   4.1   1.9   1.7   .3   2.32

e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
12.6   Trae Young     Atl  .637   35.9   6.1   8.3   1.2   6.2   .0   2.50
12.5   Pascal Siakam  Tor  .598   31.7   9.5   4.5    .3   4.4   .3   2.14
12.4   Luka Doncic    Dal  .568   24.8   8.5   7.6   2.3   4.4   .0   2.08
12.2  Malcolm Brogdon Ind  .593   23.5   4.7   8.9   1.0   1.7   .7   2.06
11.7 Shai G-Alexander OkC  .552   27.2   6.7   3.5    .8   1.6  1.3   2.01

11.3   Joel Embiid    Phl  .607   35.1  16.8   5.8   2.0   4.6  2.6   3.57
11.3   Brandon Ingram NOP  .596   24.2   9.4   4.6    .8   2.8  1.3   1.96
11.2 Tristan Thompson Cle  .617   22.1  12.8   1.7    .0    .4  1.5   1.97
11.2   Bam Adebayo    Mia  .612   18.9  12.5   6.2   1.4   3.9  2.0   2.08
11.2   Nikola Jokic   Den  .500   18.3  13.7   8.2   1.8   4.5   .9   2.09

1.00 is NBA avg eW per 484 minutes
Per 36 minute rates are scaled to standards of 100 points (and 44 rebounds) per team, per game.
This is with the season 4.4% completed, or 3-4 games per team.
Embiid has missed one game and averaged 28 minutes in the other two. The 82 game projection assumes similar minutes the rest of the way.

[Mike G]

At 7% of the season

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e82     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
19.5   LeBron James    LAL   34  .597   33.5   7.8  12.6   1.5   4.4   .6   3.34
18.6   Giannis         Mil   33  .608   31.2  14.4   9.5   1.5   5.0  2.1   3.38
18.0   Anthony Davis   LAL   35  .562   33.9  12.0   3.1   1.3   2.6  3.0   3.03
16.1   Damian Lillard  Por   38  .613   31.4   5.2   7.5   1.5   2.8   .5   2.52
15.7   Andre Drummond  Det   36  .615   22.3  20.5   2.5   1.8   4.1  2.7   2.59

15.4   Kyrie Irving    Brk   34  .575   32.3   6.9   8.1   1.1   2.8   .7   2.70
15.1 Russell Westbrook Hou   35  .544   20.7  11.1  11.6   2.1   3.8   .6   2.58
14.6   Luka Doncic     Dal   36  .570   26.4   9.2   9.0   1.8   4.8   .2   2.39
14.6   Kawhi Leonard   LAC   30  .586   37.9   9.9   8.2   2.7   4.0  1.2   3.47
14.5   Karl-A Towns    Min   31  .669   33.8  13.6   5.1   3.0   3.1  2.1   3.46

e82     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
14.3  Malcolm Brogdon  Ind   34  .574   25.8   6.1   9.6   1.5   2.6   .6   2.47
13.2  Donovan Mitchell Uta   34  .590   31.6   5.7   3.5   2.2   1.5   .2   2.30
12.7   Kevin Love      Cle   34  .642   20.4  17.7   4.9   1.1   4.2   .0   2.23
12.3   James Harden    Hou   37  .550   30.6   4.2   8.3    .8   5.6   .4   1.97
11.7   Kyle Lowry      Tor   39  .643   24.6   4.4   7.0    .9   3.2   .5   1.78

11.7   Bam Adebayo     Mia   33  .625   18.3  11.1   6.6   1.4   3.0  2.0   2.12
11.7   Kemba Walker    Bos   35  .567   29.3   4.9   4.2   1.1   2.3   .4   1.97
11.3   Pascal Siakam   Tor   34  .589   29.5   8.7   4.2    .7   3.6   .2   2.00
11.3   Nikola Jokic    Den   31  .556   20.5  12.5   7.6   1.4   3.7   .6   2.18
11.0  Shai G-Alexander OkC   35  .544   25.3   6.9   3.7    .7   1.9  1.1   1.86

e82     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
11.0  Domantas Sabonis Ind   36  .619   23.6  11.4   2.5    .6   2.6   .6   1.79
10.8   Trae Young      Atl   30  .637   37.3   6.2   8.3   1.3   6.3   .0   2.69
10.6  Tristan Thompson Cle   34  .575   19.5  12.0   2.4    .2    .4  2.0   1.85
10.2   Brandon Ingram  NOP   31  .608   24.8   8.6   4.7    .6   2.9  1.4   1.95
9.8   Ben Simmons      Phl   35  .522   17.1   6.6   9.2   2.7   4.6   .6   1.63

9.6   Bradley Beal     Was   35  .525   24.9   4.8   6.1   1.7   4.1   .4   1.63
9.3   Al Horford       Phl   32  .516   17.4   9.3   5.3    .9    .9  1.4   1.71
9.1   Devin Booker     Phx   35  .596   25.9   3.7   6.4    .5   3.8   .4   1.55
9.1   Tobias Harris    Phl   36  .613   20.2   8.6   3.3   1.4   2.4   .4   1.49
9.1   Jayson Tatum     Bos   36  .509   22.3   7.1   2.5   1.7   1.9   .6   1.51

e82     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.0   John Collins     Atl   32  .612   19.8  10.1   1.8   1.2   1.6  2.3   1.65
8.8   Aron Baynes      Phx   23  .698   25.9   9.2   5.7    .5   1.9  1.3   2.25
8.8   Nikola Vucevic   Orl   31  .495   20.7  10.9   2.6   1.0   1.6   .8   1.71
8.7   Joel Embiid      Phl   25  .603   34.9  15.0   5.2   2.0   3.9  2.5   3.38
8.5 Kristaps Porzingis Dal   33  .515   21.5   8.5   3.1    .2   2.6  2.3   1.54

8.4   Kendrick Nunn    Mia   32  .626   27.6   2.8   3.6   2.1   2.9   .2   1.57
8.4  Montrezl Harrell  LAC   28  .725   27.7   7.1   2.6    .8   3.3   .8   1.79
8.1   Dejounte Murray  SAS   23  .578   21.6  12.1   8.6   3.7   4.5  1.2   2.60
8.0  Bojan Bogdanovic  Uta   30  .667   31.3   5.9   1.8   1.2   3.2   .5   1.87
8.0  Danilo Gallinari  OkC   29  .624   26.7   5.7   1.7    .6   1.5   .2   1.62

[Mike G]

mvp award tracker:

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prob    mvp    tm   win%    Pts   Reb   Ast  Stl  Blk
.546   Giannis Mil  .750   29.0  14.3   7.6  1.3  1.6
.327   LeBron  LAL  .857   26.1   8.3  11.1  1.6   .7
.037   A Davis LAL  .857   26.6  10.9   2.7  1.0  3.0
.031   Doncic  Dal  .714   26.7   9.9   9.1  1.3   .1
.014   Hayward Bos  .857   20.3   7.9   4.6   .7   .1

.011   Irving  Brk  .429   31.7   6.1   7.7  1.3   .6
.010   Harden  Hou  .625   36.5   5.0   8.1  1.3   .8
.009   Towns   Min  .571   26.8  11.8   3.6  2.0  1.8
.008   Kawhi   LAC  .667   29.0   8.1   5.4  2.1  1.1
.007   Kemba   Bos  .857   24.3   5.1   4.0  1.0   .6

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

Damian Lillard is 2nd in both vorp and ws, but the rest of his team sucks.
Donovan Mitchell is 4th in both. (Giannis and LeBron are 1 and 3)

Here's everyone who ranks top 10 in either PER, WS/48 or BPM. ranked by
xyz =((PER-5.75)*ws48*(bpm+5.25)*mpg)^(1/3)

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xyz    player  mpg   PER   ws/48   bpm
19.2   Giannis  32   35.4   .361  15.1
16.0   Towns    31   32.6   .285  11.7
15.9   LeBron   35   30.0   .285  11.5
15.3   Irving   34   31.5   .307   8.2
14.5   Kawhi    31   32.0   .238  10.7

14.3   Lillard  38   28.7   .255   8.0
13.3   Butler   31   26.0   .269   8.5
13.3   Doncic   36   26.6   .216   9.3
12.9   Mitchell 30   26.4   .264   7.8
12.6   Harrell  29   28.3   .264   6.2

12.2   Davis    35   27.8   .243   4.6
12.2   Harden   35   28.4   .197   6.3
11.7   Drummond 36   27.4   .193   5.4
10.9   Adebayo  31   20.8   .226   7.2

[Crow]

"Per 36 minute rates are scaled to standards of 100 points (and 44 rebounds) per team, per game."

Could you explain this again and does change in league pace, fg% and rebounding warrant adjustments?

[Mike G]

If your SF (for example) is scoring 20 pts per 36 minutes, but the team is giving up 110 Pts/G, then his scoring rate is factored by 100/110, or .91 -- and this reduces his "effective scoring" to 18.2 pts/36 in a 100 ppg environment.

So it's kind of like playing to 100 points and calling it a game, rather than have some games end at 80 and others go to 160. Everyone's on the same scale.

Rebound% (at b-r.com) is per 100 rebounds by team+opponent, and I've just scaled to 88 instead.
With TReb%, 10 is normal, and per-88 means 8.8 is average over 48 minutes -- per36, avg is 6.6

Lots of other adjustments are contained, but this is kind of a big one.

Pace doesn't directly create either points or rebounds or anything else, so I ignore it.
Scoring is adjusted by (playerTS% / leagueTS%) taken to some power, and also by playerTS%/opponentTS%. In a playoff series, it's relative to shooting in that series only, since it is just your team and one opponent.

[Crow]

Thanks for the explanation.

Pace creates possession opportunities. I wouldn't ignore it. Very close within a game for the teams but not necessarily for players on same team but in different game parts or players on different paced teams or different paced game parts of those teams.

According to nba.com https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=GP&dir=-1 about 30% of players play at an average pace below the league average of 102.6. Almost 15% play above 110 or about 7.4% above the average. That is a pretty wide distribution.

Players at different performance levels AND Pace are having different total impacts because of both and players at similar performance levels AND different paces are having different total impacts where they are and how they are used (that could vary if moved, but most focus is on the now).

[Mike G]

MVP Award Tracker, per game averages:

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mvp%   player    tm   mpg   TS%    Pts   Reb   Ast   Stl  Blk
.256   Doncic   Dal   34   .632   29.9  10.4   9.7   1.3   .1
.247   Giannis  Mil   33   .618   30.1  14.1   6.6   1.5  1.4
.239   LeBron   LAL   35   .567   24.9   7.7  11.3   1.3   .6
.157   Harden   Hou   37   .627   38.3   5.9   7.8   1.7   .5
.051   Davis    LAL   35   .586   25.8   9.1   3.6   1.4  2.9
.028   Butler   Mia   34   .587   19.5   5.6   7.0   2.8   .9

nobody else at 1%

A similar list comes up with summary stats:

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xyz     player   tm   mpg   PER  WS/48  BPM
18.0   Doncic   Dal   34   33.2  .321  14.1
16.1   Giannis  Mil   33   31.9  .278  12.2
15.9   Harden   Hou   37   30.9  .278  10.2
14.4   LeBron   LAL   35   27.7  .259   9.7
14.2   Towns    Min   33   29.1  .255   9.3

13.1   Butler   Mia   34   24.9  .274   7.2
13.0   Davis    LAL   35   27.1  .248   6.6
12.0   Lillard  Por   38   25.5  .213   5.6
11.9   Irving   Brk   34   26.2  .208   6.6
11.4   Adebayo  Mia   32   21.5  .235   7.1

[Crow]

Team record will be an important factor, as it almost always is.

[Mike G]

A top 40. Not counting last night's games (sorry), four summary stats are converted to "wins" and averaged. No adjustment for team games played.

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xyzW    player        tm   mpg   e484   PER   WS48   BPM
3.32   Luka Dončić    DAL   34   2.75   33.2  .321  14.1
3.25   James Harden   HOU   37   2.18   30.9  .278  10.2
2.96   Giannis A      MIL   33   2.63   31.9  .278  12.2
2.77   LeBron James   LAL   35   2.43   27.7  .259   9.7
2.27   Anthony Davis  LAL   35   1.95   27.1  .248   6.6

2.22  Damian Lillard  POR   38   1.70   25.5  .213   5.6
2.22   Karl-A Towns   MIN   33   2.22   29.1  .255   9.3
2.00   Bam Adebayo    MIA   32   2.19   21.5  .235   7.1
1.93   Rudy Gobert    UTA   35   1.73   19.2  .218   4.0
1.89   Jimmy Butler   MIA   34   2.53   24.9  .274   7.2

xyzW    player        tm   mpg   e484   PER   WS48   BPM
1.80 Donovan Mitchell UTA   35   1.43   21.7  .176   3.8
1.74  Andre Drummond  DET   34   1.58   23.3  .143   3.5
1.71 Montrezl Harrell LAC   30   1.09   22.8  .197   4.8
1.68   Nikola Jokić   DEN   31   1.87   21.1  .172   6.5
1.65   Chris Paul     OKC   31   1.73   20.5  .192   3.8

1.61   Kemba Walker   BOS   32   1.50   20.1  .166   3.8
1.60   Kyrie Irving   BRK   34   1.79   26.2  .208   6.6
1.56  Nikola Vučević  ORL   31   1.67   22.3  .169   4.4
1.52   Fred VanVleet  TOR   38   1.55   16.1  .151   2.1
1.51   Pascal Siakam  TOR   37   1.29   19.5  .145   2.4

xyzW    player        tm   mpg   e484   PER   WS48   BPM
1.50   Bradley Beal   WAS   37   1.31   23.5  .139   2.1
1.43   Kawhi Leonard  LAC   33   1.90   24.3  .158   6.5
1.43   Trae Young     ATL   34   1.56   22.6  .092   3.0
1.40   Paul Millsap   DEN   27   1.64   20.3  .225   3.9
1.39  Malcolm Brogdon IND   31   1.59   22.5  .197   4.6

1.39 Danilo Gallinari OKC   30   1.36   19.9  .184   1.4
1.38   Lou Williams   LAC   33   1.01   19.8  .151   0.5
1.37   Tobias Harris  PHI   34   1.27   17.1  .138   1.4
1.36   Clint Capela   HOU   32   1.31   21.2  .188   0.3
1.34   P.J. Tucker    HOU   35   1.43   11.4  .123   2.0

xyzW    player        tm   mpg   e484   PER   WS48   BPM
1.33 Domantas Sabonis IND   34   1.38   20.7  .175   3.0
1.32   Al Horford     PHI   32   1.53   17.5  .146   2.8
1.32   Devin Booker   PHO   35    .94   19.5  .148   1.6
1.32   Eric Bledsoe   MIL   27   1.36   20.5  .177   2.7
1.31   Marcus Smart   BOS   32   1.53   14.4  .134   2.4

1.30   Kevin Love     CLE   32   1.45   20.0  .129   1.7
1.30 Tristan Thompson CLE   31   1.16   20.7  .134   3.3
1.29   Joel Embiid    PHI   29   1.80   25.9  .204   3.9
1.29   OG Anunoby     TOR   29   1.50   16.6  .184   5.3
1.27   Ben Simmons    PHI   34   1.30   18.3  .146   2.7

#41-50: Aldridge, J Murray, W Carter, Isaac, Baynes, DeRozan, D Graham, Zubac, Tatum, Kennard
51-60: Bjelica, Wiggins, Ingram, Whiteside, Westbrook, G Hill, R Holmes, B Lopez, Barton, Fournier

[Mike G]

An abrupt imbalance in the mvp running:

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mvp%   per game   Pts   Reb   Ast   Stl   Blk
.429   Giannis   31.1  13.9   6.4   1.6   1.3
.238   LeBron    25.6   7.5  11.0   1.2    .6
.142   Doncic    30.1  10.0   9.5   1.5    .2
.097   Harden    37.9   6.1   8.0   1.6    .5
.057   Davis     25.1   9.0   3.8   1.5   2.9
.014   Butler    18.9   5.4   6.7   1.1   1.5

Luka loses half of his mvp% with just 2 games, one sensational, the other so-so.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
If b-r.com ever revises their mvp% formula, I wonder if they'd use their own forecast team Win% rather than the current one.
It seems to make a large difference here, whether the Lakers are an 88% (15-2) team, or a 69% (56-26 projected) team.

Jordan won his last mvp at age 34 (2nd retirement). LeBron last won at age 28, is 34 now. The conference leader with the best "story" will have more "value".

[Crow]

It is Giannis or LeBron for the win in the end I'd guess. Harden will get a good share of votes but probably ends up 3rd unless the Rockets end up with a record as good as the other two. It will come to the voters and tgeir criteria. Confirm Giannis as the top guy or give LeBron his last one. Leonard will get some votes but probably will get more in playoffs MVP vote.

[Mike G]

All Star Break!
PER and BPM are converted to "wins" equivalents, then averaged with Win Shares and eWins.
These avg "wins" are then projected to 82 games.
mpg are player minutes divided by team games. Players traded midseason are projected to continue with mpg and rates.

Code: Select all

W/82     Player       tm   mpg    PER   e484   WS/48  BPM
16.3   James Harden   Hou   35   29.0   2.23   .255   9.3
15.0   Giannis        Mil   27   32.2   2.73   .289  12.0
14.1  Damian Lillard  Por   36   26.8   1.77   .223   6.6
13.6   LeBron James   LAL   34   25.2   2.19   .203   8.2
13.4   Nikola Jokić   Den   33   25.3   2.13   .216   8.4

13.3   Anthony Davis  LAL   30   28.3   2.13   .265   7.1
12.7   Luka Dončić    Dal   26   29.2   2.43   .236  11.4
12.0   Rudy Gobert    Uta   33   22.4   1.94   .234   5.0
11.1   Jimmy Butler   Mia   29   24.0   2.08   .228   5.3
11.1   Ben Simmons    Phl   35   20.7   1.71   .180   5.1

W/82    11-20         tm   mpg    PER   e484   WS/48  BPM
10.9  Bam Adebayo     Mia   35   20.7   1.64   .183   5.1
10.4  Chris Paul      OKC   31   21.6   1.79   .198   4.8
10.2  Trae Young      Atl   31   24.4   1.70   .138   5.0
9.8   Kawhi Leonard   LAC   25   26.4   1.86   .208   7.1
9.5  Domantas Sabonis Ind   33   20.6   1.48   .166   3.9

9.3   Karl-A Towns    Min   22   26.8   1.98   .214   8.2
9.2  Hassan Whiteside Por   28   24.8   1.39   .205   3.1
8.8   Andre Drummond  Cle   32   22.2   1.58   .120   3.0
8.6   DeMar DeRozan   SAS   33   22.0   1.16   .151   1.5
8.5   Devin Booker    Phx   34   20.6   1.20   .141   1.8

W/82    21-30         tm   mpg    PER   e484   WS/48  BPM
8.5  Khris Middleton  Mil   26   21.9   1.58   .223   4.2
8.4   Jarrett Allen   Brk   27   20.6   1.70   .213   3.5
8.3   Kemba Walker    Bos   27   21.0   1.59   .178   3.8
8.1   Zach LaVine     Chi   35   19.9   1.32   .105   1.8
8.1   Bradley Beal    Was   31   22.6   1.38   .116   1.9

8.0   Jayson Tatum    Bos   32   19.5   1.41   .138   2.0
7.9   Kyle Lowry      Tor   29   17.8   1.77   .170   3.2
7.9   Nikola Vučević  Orl   26   21.6   1.73   .150   4.3
7.8  Donovan Mitchell Uta   34   19.3   1.19   .123   1.4
7.8   R Westbrook     Hou   30   21.1   1.58   .106   2.1

W/82    31-40         tm   mpg    PER   e484   WS/48  BPM
7.6  Montrezl Harrell LAC   28   22.5    .92   .178   2.1
7.6   Joel Embiid     Phl   22   24.9   1.84   .196   3.8
7.5 LaMarcus Aldridge SAS   31   20.3   1.18   .133   1.8
7.5   Brandon Ingram  NOP   29   20.6   1.31   .138   2.2
7.5 Mitchell Robinson NYK   21   22.5   1.85   .221   5.3

7.4  Shai G-Alexander OKC   36   17.5   1.18   .117   0.6
7.2   Fred VanVleet   Tor   29   16.6   1.61   .143   2.1
7.1  Danilo Gallinari OKC   26   20.0   1.43   .174   1.9
7.0   Steven Adams    OKC   24   20.1   1.35   .182   4.3
7.0 Jonas Valančiūnas Mem   25   22.2   1.21   .173   2.6

W/82    41-50         tm   mpg    PER   e484   WS/48  BPM
6.8 Spencer Dinwiddie Brk   31   18.0   1.31   .121   0.5
6.8   Tobias Harris   Phl   34   16.4   1.17   .121   0.1
6.6   Pascal Siakam   Tor   28   18.9   1.34   .129   1.4
6.6   Nemanja Bjelica Sac   28   16.4   1.29   .135   2.9
6.5   Clint Capela    Hou   24   20.7   1.35   .186   1.4

6.4   Devonte' Graham Cha   35   15.9   1.46   .075   0.1
6.3   Will Barton     Den   29   16.0   1.34   .123   1.8
6.2   Al Horford      Phl   28   15.2   1.43   .128   2.3
6.2   T.J. Warren     Ind   31   17.5    .95   .131   0.3
6.1   Richaun Holmes  Sac   20   20.9   1.44   .203   3.5

W/82    51-60         tm   mpg    PER   e484   WS/48  BPM
6.0  Bojan Bogdanović Uta   33   16.4    .92   .114   0.2
6.0   Eric Bledsoe    Mil   23   18.7   1.35   .175   2.1
6.0   Gordon Hayward  Bos   23   18.6   1.34   .168   2.9
5.8   Daniel Theis    Bos   20   17.2   1.52   .192   4.6
5.8   Evan Fournier   Orl   31   16.2   1.07   .106   0.2

5.8   Kelly Oubre     Phx   33   15.3   1.19   .098  -0.7
5.7   Jrue Holiday    NOP   29   17.0   1.32   .077   1.2
5.7   Jamal Murray    Den   26   18.0   1.21   .119   0.9
5.7   Jaylen Brown    Bos   27   17.2   1.10   .129   0.6
5.7   Buddy Hield     Sac   33   16.0   1.10   .068   0.3

W/82    61-70         tm   mpg    PER   e484   WS/48  BPM
5.7   Kevin Love      Cle   27   18.3   1.32   .100   0.6
5.6   Nerlens Noel    OKC   16   22.3   1.66   .234   6.4
5.6   Brook Lopez     Mil   26   14.0   1.34   .138   3.1
5.5   Ivica Zubac     LAC   18   21.0   1.35   .224   3.2
5.4   Duncan Robinson Mia   29   12.6   1.34   .121   1.3

5.4   Joe Ingles      Uta   30   12.6   1.16   .114   1.8
5.4   DeAndre Jordan  Brk   18   20.5   1.35   .209   3.3
5.3   Brandon Clarke  Mem   19   21.8   1.00   .190   2.5
5.3   Dwight Howard   LAL   20   19.1   1.13   .198   2.4
5.3   Dorian F-Smith  Dal   30   12.4   1.18   .110   1.8

W/82    71-80         tm   mpg    PER   e484   WS/48  BPM
5.2   George Hill     Mil   17   18.1   1.61   .228   3.3
5.1   Marcus Smart    Bos   25   13.8   1.44   .119   2.1
5.1   JaVale McGee    LAL   16   21.1   1.45   .219   4.0
5.1   Lou Williams    LAC   28   17.3    .95   .105  -0.8
5.1   Jaren Jackson   Mem   27   16.4   1.06   .097   0.9

5.1   Julius Randle   NYK   32   16.9   1.10   .051  -0.7
5.1   Dennis Schröder OKC   31   17.0    .77   .089  -0.6
5.1   Ja Morant       Mem   27   18.4   1.02   .095  -0.4
5.0   CJ McCollum     Por   33   16.0    .99   .062  -1.0
5.0   De'Aaron Fox    Sac   21   19.8   1.44   .102   1.7

W/82    81-90         tm   mpg    PER   e484   WS/48  BPM
5.0   Paul George     LAC   18   20.3   1.48   .140   3.5
5.0 Kristaps Porziņģis Dal  23   18.5   1.37   .116  -0.5
5.0   OG Anunoby      Tor   29   12.6   1.04   .117   1.5
5.0  Tomáš Satoranský Chi   29   14.4   1.15   .107  -0.2
5.0   Malcolm Brogdon Ind   23   18.0   1.25   .112   1.0

4.9   Kyrie Irving    Brk   12   26.3   1.83   .218   7.4
4.9   Terry Rozier    Cha   34   14.6   1.12   .057  -0.9
4.9   Dāvis Bertāns   Was   24   15.7   1.27   .110   1.3
4.9  Robert Covington Hou   28   13.6   1.29   .087   0.7
4.9   Christian Wood  Det   18   22.6   1.11   .187   0.9

W/82    91-101        tm   mpg    PER   e484   WS/48  BPM
4.8  Tristan Thompson Cle   28   16.9    .83   .084   0.1
4.8   Maxi Kleber     Dal   24   14.0   1.15   .131   1.6
4.7   Justin Holiday  Ind   25   12.5   1.23   .117   2.3
4.7   Andrew Wiggins  GSW   28   16.8   1.12   .063  -0.6
4.7   Jordan Clarkson Uta   24   18.6    .84   .122   0.1

4.7   John Collins    Atl   17   22.7   1.26   .161   1.2
4.7   Harrison Barnes Sac   35   13.1    .97   .085  -1.5
4.7   Dwight Powell   Dal   19   16.2   1.34   .166   2.8
4.7   Dejounte Murray SAS   23   17.3   1.12   .095   2.0
4.7   Jakob Pöltl     SAS   17   19.5   1.07   .165   4.9
4.7  D'Angelo Russell Min   21   19.4   1.41   .067   1.7

http://bkref.com/tiny/TtaUA

[Crow]

These metrics reward usage and don't do much or anything to get at individual defensive impact. So DeRozan does much better here than on RAPM, RPM and probably PIPM.

[Mike G]

How do they reward usage? Usage is a denominator, and more of it makes your efficiency less. Don't these metrics value productivity, proficiency, and positive point differential?

DeRozan ranks 20th in minutes and 1st on his team, where the coach is not an idiot.
PER loves him, and he is #15 in PER-wins (in my spreadsheet)
WS thinks he's OK, ranking between Kawhi and Lowry at #19
In BPM-wins , he's #31, between Donovan Mitchell and Brandon Ingram -- marginal allstar territory!
eWins has the dimmest view at #46, twixt Gallinari and Covington.

Sometimes when I do this, I see which stats have higher correlation to minutes and give them more weight.
But then I want to give more weight to high correlations with the better teams; and it gets complicated.
If I drop PER from the average, DD drops from #19 to 36, tied with Shai G-A

[Crow]

Usage is the gateway for unlocking rewards for points. Metrics vary in how they reward, at what efficiency threshold. PER rewards at too low a level imo. (Would have to review BPM formula to comment on that.)


DeRozan is 313th on 1 yr PIPM. 157th on RPM. 290th on RAPM. 352th on Luck Adjusted RAPM.

Popovich has a lottery team record right now. Lineup management is a contributing reason for that. The 5 guys with the worst raw on court plus minus / 100 possessions are the 5 starters. I am aware that playing against starters is tougher and not for everybody; but if you are negative at that, I am testing other people more, enough to determine who is least bad.