2020 draft

[Crow]

https://twitter.com/andlankell/status/1 ... 70304?s=20

Link to PIPM for draft prospects.

[Crow]

Found 1 internet draft guy with Toppin #1 and another asking the question. Didn't immediately see anyone with Okongwu #1. Will others join these suggestions? Will probably stay rare. Maybe better chance they post the best or one of the best statlines (at least next season) in NBA than going #1.

[Crow]

Who would trade up for Wiseman? Kupchak? Would Jordan let him? Do they have the itch to repeat the past? The Pistons?

I dunno if there is any chance that the Spurs, Clippers or Raptors would. Maybe. Any of those would be a trip.

[Crow]

Carey has no buzz.

I've seen the stats / metrics. Haven't watched film yet.

[SuperDuper]

I am looking out for who takes a flier on Aaron Nesmith.

Shot 50% on 8 attempts per game from 3!

Just curious to see if any of that crosses over.

[Crow]

Don't see any update on the stress fractured foot but hopefully it heals up.

[Crow]

More intrigue about the order for the top 20. More seemingly decent options for 20-60. I'd seek extra picks.

[eminence]

Okongwu is my #1 (noting that I know little about internationals). Not the highest ceiling in the world for a #1, but seems like a very safe bet to be very very good.

[Crow]

He is likely to be top or near top on metrics next season. Maybe not peak. The peak leader is unclear.

I'd think he'd make sense for TWolves but their management probably does not see it that way.

[Crow]

Wiseman to Pistons or Hornets might be alright. For long-term development. Might not be the best, but those seem to be the most likely places.

Not a big fan of Edwards. Perhaps may give him another look / chance. He might go to Knicks, Hornets or Pistons.

Ball? Maybe the Pelicans or Magic want him. By trade up or not.

Avdija? I don't see an obvious, specific suitor. But probably a bad team with a long time horizon and maybe a marketing need.

Okoro, maybe the TWolves or Wizards.

Okongwu? Warriors, TWolves, Hornets, Knicks, Suns, Spurs... and others.

Vassell? Pretty much anybody / everybody imo.

Saddiq Bay? Might go higher thsn expected.

Nesmith should go higher.

20-50 seems like decent & diverse shopping with few obvious clunkers. Providing a lot of reasonable optimism.

[eminence]

Lots of similar thoughts here, latter lotto seems like the spot for Edwards to me (not where he'll go, but where I'd take him), obviously very physically talented, but hasn't shown the skill he'll need to succeed in the NBA yet imo. Similar for Okoro to me.

[Crow]

The Stepien had 8 guards in their top 2 tiers as of last night out of 12 players.

The expectation in most or all these cases would be a player with at least 20% usage and 16% assist rate. Right?

Well in last 5 years 47 new players have come into league and done that. But only a handful have also delivered a positive BPM, so far. The best cases are wing or big man sized creators. Only Young and Mitchell among the traditional sized guards delivered over a fraction of a point positive.

It is understandable to want creators but it would be wise to reflect on the low rate of early career positive creators, especially traditional sized ones.

[Crow]

Several teams publicly announcing recent scout hires from internet sites in early to mid 20s. Others apparently have done it privately.

Advantages? Knowledge of high school players. Relatability to them. Willing to work long hours for cheaper than alternatives? Fresh thinking?

Disadvantages? Degree of being influenced by high school and AAU coaches, hangers on, shoe companies / agents? Bias toward enthusiasm and hope in upside? They haven't been around that long to be tempered by that many disappointments. Some of the hires have been primarily high school recruiting reporters. How good are they actually at scouting? I haven't heard of any recent hires of draft analysts who emphasize quantitative analytics. I'd be looking for folks with skills and track record with that.

[Crow]

Not much of my previous draft commentary would I change or adjust.

I'd try to buy up 2nd round picks. Obviously prefer 30-40 but I'd likely still find guys 40-50 and maybe beyond.

I've said it on twitter but not here- I am not as high on Maxey as many and probably Pokusevski.

Tillman is a new like. Bane, N'Doiye, Quickley have moved up.

[Crow]

Haliburton to Knicks seems like a pretty good idea to me.

It could fail, but so could most of the other options there.

Okongwu should be gone by then, but maybe not.