2020-21 team win projection contest

[vzografos]

I've never bothered with a simulated season myself, but more power to y'all that do.

How do you do it?

[Mike G]

If you expect your team to have avg MOV of +5, they should win 65% of their games, or 53 of 82.
A simulated game-by-game season might give you 48 or 58, and a bunch of such 'seasons' ought to add up to an avg of 53.

Maybe a schedule can be biased by somehow getting more back-to-backs and longer layoffs. But some players do well in those situations, while others do not. Have whole team-seasons been shown to benefit or suffer by the arrangement of 82 opponent-dates?

[vzografos]

Was that an answer to mine?

If you expect your team to have avg MOV of +5, they should win 65% of their games, or 53 of 82.

Please define any abbreviations you use. There are so many I have no idea which one you mean. What is MOV? I had to google it. So that we can be on the same page.

Anyway....if you have an expectation that means you somehow calculated an average. Either from simulation or from past data or some empirical knowledge or from some magic ball.

A simulated game-by-game season might give you 48 or 58, and a bunch of such 'seasons' ought to add up to an avg of 53.

In theory. The advantage of random simulations (lets call them Monte Carlo) is that they can give you many things beyond a single value (mean). They can give you the whole distribution (variance, kurtosis, skewness etc).


Obviously in situations that you have a fixed schedule you only simulate the outcomes.
In the case that you do not have a partial fixed schedule or none at all, then given some rudimentary rules you can also simulate the schedule in your Monte Carlo step.

[liminal_space]

I used Kevin Pelton's minutes.

I saw those too.
Not sure how accurate they are but if you want some additional projections I am going to calculate all the (per-season average) boxscore stats for 2020-21. I expect to have them in the next couple of days. Dont know if they will be any good but I would be interested to see how your team win projections change (if at all).

If anyone is interested you can find my minutes projections here:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1juLaPO ... sp=sharing
as an alternative to Kevin Pelton's numbers.

These projections do not incorporate any player injuries before the season, or any changes to player status (i.e. left the team, league, retired etc). Any players that were given 0 minutes from Pelton's method have been highlighted because maybe there is additional information that I dont have so you need to pay attention to those.

You have given many minutes to players who are not on teams anymore.

[liminal_space]

I used Kevin Pelton's minutes.

I saw those too.
Not sure how accurate they are but if you want some additional projections I am going to calculate all the (per-season average) boxscore stats for 2020-21. I expect to have them in the next couple of days. Dont know if they will be any good but I would be interested to see how your team win projections change (if at all).

If anyone is interested you can find my minutes projections here:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1juLaPO ... sp=sharing
as an alternative to Kevin Pelton's numbers.

These projections do not incorporate any player injuries before the season, or any changes to player status (i.e. left the team, league, retired etc). Any players that were given 0 minutes from Pelton's method have been highlighted because maybe there is additional information that I dont have so you need to pay attention to those.

These projections do not incorporate any player injuries before the season, or any changes to player status (i.e. left the team, league, retired etc).

So you didn't incorporate any of the information that actually matters in making a good win projection? what is the point of fancy math if your model is telling me Axel Toupane (waived) will play 12MPG for the Warriors this year?

[eminence]

Guess Hayward is healthy enough, switching back to original predictions (changed my predictions post).

[DSMok1]

I have updated my projections. The minutes projections are updated to Kevin Pelton's latest https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZcQABH ... v1-Ad/view

I removed RAPTOR from my blend. It now only includes PIPM, RPM, and BPM.

I have also added Strength of Schedule to the win totals. This generally hurts teams in the West, particularly near the bottom of the pack.

Here are my updated projections:

Eastern Conference:
MIL 48.9
BKN 45.9
MIA 44.5
TOR 43.2
PHI 41.9
BOS 39.3
IND 37.2
ATL 36.2
WAS 34.3
ORL 28.0
CHI 27.5
CHA 26.3
NYK 23.0
DET 21.9
CLE 21.6

Western conference:
LAL 48.2
UTA 45.8
LAC 44.6
DAL 43.6
DEN 41.2
HOU 41.0
NOP 39.6
POR 39.5
MEM 34.4
PHX 34.3
MIN 34.0
SAC 31.5
GSW 30.0
SAS 29.4
OKC 23.5

[vzografos]

So you didn't incorporate any of the information that actually matters in making a good win projection? what is the point of fancy math if your model is telling me Axel Toupane (waived) will play 12MPG for the Warriors this year?

You can remove those manually. I am sure you are able to do that

[shadow]

Code: Select all

ATL	35.3
BOS	44.0
BRK	43.4
CHA	26.1
CHI	28.7
CLE	22.1
DAL	43.1
DEN	43.6
DET	22.1
GSW	36.4
HOU	37.6
IND	38.0
LAC	47.2
LAL	48.2
MEM	32.0
MIA	42.7
MIL	49.8
MIN	29.7
NOP	35.8
NYK	22.3
OKC	22.0
ORL	31.1
PHI	43.1
PHX	39.1
POR	39.8
SAC	29.4
SAS	30.6
TOR	42.7
UTA	42.2
WAS	32.1

[eminence]

Hoping we get some more entries, don't be shy everyone!

[Crow]

By 7 pm Eastern tomorrow preferred. About 9:30 pm Eastern would be ok to accommodate different schedules and encourage last minute participation.

A day or two late is usually allowed with excuse offered / asked and without multiple objections, as long as it doesn't look fishy related to any early injuries or surprise developments.

[liminal_space]

I used a random number generator:

Code: Select all

ATL	32.1
BKN	40.4
BOS	40.8
CHA	20.9
CHI	27.1
CLE	23.3
DAL	44.8
DEN	42.2
DET	20.9
GSW	37.6
HOU	40.0
IND	39.4
LAC	46.4
LAL	46.8
MEM	37.3
MIA	43.1
MIL	47.8
MIN	34.7
NOP	38.1
NYK	21.0
OKC	27.3
ORL	31.2
PHI	42.7
PHX	34.9
POR	38.4
SAC	31.5
SAS	34.2
TOR	40.7
UTA	42.4
WAS	32.2

[jgoldstein34]

Good luck to everyone this year!

[tarrazu]

just a bunch of prawns

Code: Select all

Conf	Team	Wins
East	MIL	47.5
East	MIA	43.5
East	PHI	43.5
East	BOS	42
East	BKN	41.5
East	TOR	41.5
East	IND	38.5
East	ATL	33
East	WAS	31.5
East	ORL	31
East	CHI	27.5
East	CHA	23.5
East	NYK	22.5
East	CLE	22.5
East	DET	22
West	LAL	48
West	LAC	46.5
West	DAL	43.5
West	DEN	42
West	UTA	42
West	HOU	39.5
West	POR	39.5
West	PHX	37
West	NOP	36.5
West	MEM	36
West	GSW	35
West	MIN	34
West	SAS	32.5
West	SAC	30
West	OKC	26.5

[caliban]

Code: Select all

48,5	LAL
47,6	LAC
46,0	MIL
45,6	UTA
44,7	BRK
43,8	DAL
42,9	PHI
42,8	DEN
42,3	TOR
41,1	MIA
40,0	NOP
39,7	BOS
38,6	IND
38,5	POR
35,4	MEM
34,5	PHO
34,3	ATL
34,2	SAS
33,5	SAC
33,2	HOU
32,5	WAS
30,6	ORL
30,5	MIN
29,8	CHI
28,1	DET
28,1	GSW
25,7	NYK
23,7	CHO
22,4	OKC
21,3	CLE