2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Tue May 31, 2022 1:46 am

Preview, player standardized per-36-minute rates for each of previous 3 rounds.
For the Celtics, the lines are vs Brk, vs Mil, and vs Mia.

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.   Jayson Tatum                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480   eWin
42   .602   27.4   4.8   6.1   3.9   1.5   4.5   .7   13   1.75    .61
41   .544   27.0   5.6   5.2   2.6    .9   3.3  1.0   26   2.09   1.24
41   .601   26.5   7.6   5.4   2.4   1.0   4.4   .8   18   1.79   1.07
.   Jaylen Brown                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480   eWin
39   .549   18.8   6.1   3.9   1.9   2.3   2.4   .5    4   1.31    .42
37   .602   25.2   7.1   3.8   2.8   1.0   3.2   .6   21   1.85   1.00
39   .591   25.9   6.9   3.1   3.8    .7   3.2   .3   19   1.48    .84
.   Marcus Smart                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480   eWin
37   .532   14.0   4.9   6.8   3.8   1.2   2.6   .0   10    .92    .28
31   .542   15.0   3.5   6.1   3.0   1.0   2.5   .7   13    .98    .45
26   .485   16.2   6.4   6.8   3.8   1.2   1.9   .2   11   1.30    .49
.   Al Horford                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480   eWin
32   .722   17.7  10.6   2.2   4.6    .9    .9   .9    9   1.40    .37
39   .607   12.9   9.7   4.2   3.1   1.2    .9  1.6   14   1.50    .85
32   .578   10.4  10.1   3.9   2.1    .5   1.7  2.0    9   1.01    .47
.   Grant Williams                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480   eWin
30   .750   14.4   5.7    .8   3.5    .3    .6  1.7    8    .72    .18
32   .517   10.3   5.2   1.0   4.4    .3   1.2  1.0   17    .16    .08
30   .581   10.4   5.0    .7   5.0    .7   1.2   .3    7    .18    .08
.   Derrick White                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480   eWin
20   .412    4.7   9.0   3.2   2.9   1.6   1.3   .0    1    .37    .06
26   .500   10.1   4.9   3.7   2.7   1.0   1.0   .6    8    .57    .22
24   .517   13.4   3.8   5.2   3.5   1.8   2.5  1.5    7    .88    .30
.   Robert Williams                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480   eWin
8    .417    2.9   9.3   1.0   4.3   1.1   1.1  1.1    0    .08    .01
10   .619   14.1   8.6   2.7   5.6   1.6    .6  4.1    0   1.65    .24
19   .764   20.1  10.3    .6   2.5    .9   1.2  3.3    0   1.66    .46
.   Payton Pritchard                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480   eWin
12   .767   21.1   5.1   2.7   2.8    .7    .7   .0    3   1.22    .12
13   .484    9.6   5.9   5.6   2.4    .4    .4   .3    8    .82    .16
15   .592   16.0   3.3   4.6   3.6   1.0    .7   .3   10    .96    .21
.   Daniel Theis                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480   eWin
22   .607   14.1  13.5   2.1   6.0   1.3   2.2   .4    1   1.16    .21
7    .567   11.3   6.6    .7   5.3    .7   2.2  2.7    1    .46    .04
7    .750   15.4   8.6   3.3   1.5    .0   1.6   .8    0   1.04    .10

Dubs' lines are vs Den, vs Mem, vs Dal:

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.   Stephen Curry                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWin
30   .628   32.3   4.5   6.0   2.3   1.8   3.4   .5   19   2.57   .80
36   .559   27.7   4.6   5.4   2.6    .8   2.6   .5   23   1.93   .86
35   .580   26.0   7.8   7.2   3.4    .8   3.1   .4   18   2.03   .74
.   Klay Thompson                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWin
35   .642   22.5   4.7   1.4   2.5   1.2   1.4   .8   22   1.43   .52
35   .507   16.9   4.8   2.4   1.9   1.4   1.9  1.0   20    .95   .42
35   .585   17.7   4.4   3.0   2.3    .6    .9   .4   15    .96   .35
.   Andrew Wiggins                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWin
30   .593   15.1   9.5   1.9   2.4   1.2   1.5  1.0    7   1.23   .38
33   .539   14.4   7.2    .8   2.9   1.0   1.7  1.5    9    .81   .33
37   .531   16.0   8.1   2.6   3.0    .5    .9   .4    8   1.06   .40
.   Draymond Green                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWin
33   .600   10.1   7.0   7.9   4.4   1.5   1.9  1.8    4   1.31   .45
28   .535    8.8  10.3   6.9   4.6   1.0   5.1  1.1    0    .82   .29
30   .602   13.7   8.7   6.2   4.8    .9   3.3  1.2    2   1.14   .36
.   Jordan Poole                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWin
32   .700   26.2   3.1   5.9   3.4   1.5   2.9   .4   15   1.89   .64
30   .569   22.0   4.5   4.5   2.9    .2   3.7   .8   12   1.22   .46
28   .774   26.0   3.9   4.3   4.9   1.6   2.8   .2    8   1.53   .45
.   Kevon Looney                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWin
13   .545    4.6  11.5   2.3   6.6    .5    .5   .0    0    .29   .04
19   .640   10.0  13.4   3.2   3.5   1.0   1.5   .6    0   1.13   .26
28   .697   15.4  15.7   3.6   1.8    .2    .9   .8    0   1.71   .50
.   Otto Porter Jr.                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWin
22   .370    2.7   5.4   3.1   3.7    .8   1.5   .6    2   -.26  -.06
18   .596    9.4   6.6   3.3   3.7   2.1   1.2   .6    7    .70   .16
11   .793   17.2   9.7   2.8   2.5   1.1    .7   .6    1   1.42   .16
.   Jonathan Kuminga                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWin
5    .609   13.3    .0    .9    .0   1.0   3.1  1.0    0   -.07   .00
13   .617   22.9   6.9   2.0   3.4    .5   2.6   .4    2   1.32   .21
6    .475   18.5  11.2   2.0   3.3   1.0   2.5   .0    1   1.25   .08
.   Nemanja Bjelica                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWin
10   .541    9.7   4.7   2.8   4.0   1.1   1.2  1.1    0    .42   .04
5    .500    4.3   5.2   3.3   3.7    .0   1.9   .0    1   -.15  -.01
8    .750    8.7   9.0   5.1   4.8    .0    .9   .0    1    .71   .06
.   Moses Moody                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWin
2    .167     .7   3.3   2.7    .0   2.7   3.0   .0    0   -.57  -.01
4    .750   20.5   5.0   1.2   1.3    .0   1.4  1.3    3   1.09   .05
13   .676   11.0   1.7    .9   1.5    .9    .6   .5    4    .15   .02
.   Damion Lee                              
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWin
2    .600   14.2   6.5    .0   2.8    .0    .0   .0    0    .57   .01
12   .486    6.0   4.9   1.8   1.6    .5   1.6   .0    3   -.11  -.02
7    .500    7.0  11.6   1.7   2.8    .0   2.1   .0    1    .32   .02

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _2022.html

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Wed Jun 01, 2022 4:05 pm

B-R.com still has their Playoff Probabilities page up:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
They say Celtics have a 57% chance of winning the Finals, GS 43%. This is likely calculated from their regular season SRS (simple rating system = margin of victory + strength of schedule).

Meanwhile, 15 of 20 ESPN Experts are picking the Warriors --
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/339 ... on-celtics

What accounts for this discrepancy? Are the Dubs doing much better in the playoffs? Do they have stronger personnel now than in the regular season?
Round-by-round :

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Bos
vs      mov     sos    srs
Brk    4.50    0.82    5.32
Mil    7.86    3.22   11.08
Mia    5.29    4.23    9.52
---------------------------
tot    5.88    2.76    8.64
            
GSW            
vs      mov     sos    srs
Den    8.00    2.16   10.16
Mem    0.67    5.37    6.04
Dal    8.60    3.12   11.72
---------------------------
tot    5.76    3.55    9.31

sos in a given round is just that opponent's season SRS. Here it seems GS has been about half a point better; and they have the home court advantage.

Another way to compare their relative playoff strength is with BPM. This metric accounts for the actual lineups used. If a regular player is missing (Middleton) or an irregular star is present (Irving), the season SRS is not as relevant.

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rd      Bos     GS
1      2.53    2.36
2      2.96    1.51
3      2.64    2.56
-      ------------
T      2.71    2.14
x4.2  11.38    9.00

I seem to recall that 4.2 is a better multiplier than 5.0, to predict a team's pts/100 vs average.
For whatever reason, the Celts look better -- and more consistent. Dubs lost that one game to the Grizz by 50, and maybe that's all it is.
Note: I gave each series equal weight; so a short series counts just as much as a long one in these ratings.
Bos' weakest series was their shortest one (4 G vs Brk); Dubs' weakest was also their longest (6 G vs Mem). If each game counted equally, this would help the Celts' overall rating and hurt the Dubs.
Celtics in 6.

DarkStar48 · Post by **DarkStar48** » Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:30 pm

Celtics are favored to win the Finals in the FiveThirtyEight RAPTOR-based Forecast (~80%) and ESPN NBA BPI (87%), essentially a sweep or at most 5 games.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/B ... ayoff-odds

Assuming nothing changes, both projections have GSW losing Game 1 (~47% vs. 40%, respectively) as the closest game in the series.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... ons/games/
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401442530

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:37 pm

Thanks for these links!
The 538 Raptor projection says Bos wins .78 of home games and .56 of away games -- but for that .53 likelihood in G1. No explanation -- Dubs give up?
Chance of a Celtics sweep are 18% with these odds, 41% that they win in 4 or 5.

Their Elo system has Celts winning .47 in GS and .74 at home. With this, it's just 12% for a sweep and 31% in 4 or 5 -- almost as likely the Dubs win.

I don't know what to make of the ESPN BPI, and apparently neither do 20 Experts who work there. Part of the formula is "preseason expectations". Really?
Don't see home/away split, just .862 likelihood Boston wins. If they are .82 at home and .584 on the road, it sums to .862

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Bos win in:
.229     4
.250     5
.275     6
.108     7
.862   tot

Bos in 6 is most likely outcome in all these.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Thu Jun 02, 2022 5:45 pm

More round by round summaries and trajectories:

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   Warriors            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1  1200   18.1   .140   2.36   1.22
2  1440   14.3   .100   1.51   1.02
3  1200   18.1   .160   2.56   1.24
t  3840   16.7   .131   2.10   1.15
   Klay Thompson            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   173   19.5   .114    2.2   1.43
2   212   12.4   .054    1.3    .95
3   177   16.1   .119    1.4    .96
t   562   15.7   .093    1.6   1.10
   Stephen Curry            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   150   29.5   .218    8.6   2.57
2   214   19.8   .163    5.5   1.93
3   174   22.5   .185    4.9   2.03
t   538   23.3   .185    6.2   2.14
   Andrew Wiggins            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   150   16.8   .112    0.2   1.23
2   198   14.8   .103    0.9    .81
3   183   17.1   .130   -0.6   1.06
t   531   16.1   .115    0.2   1.02
   Draymond Green            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   164   16.6   .167    4.5   1.31
2   170    9.4   .036   -0.8    .82
3   152   14.8   .117    1.8   1.14
t   486   13.5   .106    1.8   1.09
   Jordan Poole            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   162   23.2   .213    5.2   1.89
2   179   14.8   .073    0.2   1.22
3   140   22.8   .246    5.7   1.53
t   481   19.9   .170    3.5   1.54
   Kevon Looney            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1    67   10.0   .139   -4.1    .29
2   111   18.7   .206    4.1   1.13
3   140   23.1   .251    6.2   1.71
t   318   18.8   .212    3.3   1.21
   Otto Porter Jr.            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   109    4.2  -.024   -6.2   -.26
2   106   14.4   .169    4.6    .70
3    54   21.7   .251    8.6   1.42
t   269   11.7   .108    1.0    .46
   Jonathan Kuminga            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1    25   13.7  -.020   -3.2   -.07
2    76   18.9   .128    0.3   1.32
3    29   14.5   .055   -4.6   1.25
t   130   16.9   .083   -1.5   1.04
   Nemanja Bjelica            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1    48   14.5   .092   -2.2    .42
2    32    5.2   .058   -4.2   -.15
3    41   13.4   .179    1.1    .71
t   121   11.6   .113   -1.6    .37
   Damion Lee            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1     8   21.0   .180   -5.8    .57
2    74    6.0   .008   -3.0   -.11
3    34    7.4   .015   -4.7    .32
t   116    7.4   .022   -3.7    .06
   Gary Payton II            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1    85   23.6   .272   10.2   1.26
2    26   14.4   .110    0.4    .87
t   111   21.7   .238    7.9   1.17
   Moses Moody            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1     8    1.7  -.222  -10.6   -.57
2    22   22.4   .210    6.4   1.09
3    64   12.9   .121    1.3    .15
t    94   14.2   .113    1.5    .31
   Juan Toscano-Anderson            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1     8   42.2   .453   22.6   2.48
2    21    2.7  -.110   -5.8    .15
3    12   -9.7  -.317  -14.7  -1.71
t    41    6.7  -.061   -2.9    .06
   Andre Iguodala            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1    42    4.2  -.002   -5.4   -.35
t    42    4.2   .004   -5.4   -.35

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   Celtics            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   960   17.0   .129   2.53   1.13
2  1680   14.7   .148   2.96   1.24
3  1680   15.0   .141   2.64   1.17
T  4320   15.3   .141   2.74   1.19
   Jayson Tatum            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   167   21.4   .153    5.6   1.75
2   286   18.3   .123    5.0   2.09
3   286   19.1   .152    5.5   1.79
t   739   19.3   .141    5.3   1.90
   Jaylen Brown            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   155   19.0   .108    3.1   1.31
2   260   17.9   .156    4.2   1.86
3   272   16.8   .125    1.8   1.48
t   687   17.7   .133    3.0   1.59
   Al Horford            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   128   18.9   .192    4.9   1.40
2   273   16.8   .217    6.7   1.50
3   224   13.8   .150    5.0   1.01
t   625   16.1   .188    5.7   1.31
   Grant Williams            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   119   16.6   .171    4.5    .72
2   221    7.8   .081   -2.1    .16
3   212    7.7   .108   -2.4    .18
t   552    9.6   .111   -0.8    .29
   Marcus Smart            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1   147   14.6   .094    0.1    .92
2   219   12.4   .117    0.9    .97
3   182   14.1   .120    0.6   1.30
t   548   13.5   .112    0.6   1.07
   Derrick White            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1    81    8.4   .017   -3.2    .37
2   180   10.9   .122    0.6    .57
3   165   12.7   .095    3.5    .88
t   426   11.1   .092    1.0    .65
   Payton Pritchard            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1    46   19.5   .181    5.0   1.22
2    92   13.1   .166    3.2    .81
3   104   15.0   .173    3.3    .96
t   242   15.1   .172    3.6    .96
   Robert Williams            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1    30   10.3   .065   -4.2    .08
2    71   22.7   .288    6.5   1.66
3   134   23.2   .285    6.5   1.66
t   235   21.4   .258    5.1   1.46
   Daniel Theis            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1    88   16.2   .129   -0.1   1.16
2    46   11.4   .145   -1.8    .46
3    46   15.3   .174    3.6   1.04
t   180   14.7   .145    0.4    .95
   Aaron Nesmith            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
2     7   24.2   .323   15.0   2.08
3    29     .2  -.119   -8.8    .14
t    36    4.9  -.033   -4.2    .52
   Nik Stauskas            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
2     7    5.4  -.003   -3.0   -.17
3     8   32.4   .402   11.8   3.00
t    15   19.8   .213    4.9   1.52
   Luke Kornet            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
2     6    -.6   .057   -6.8   -.97
3     7   13.1   .129   -3.8    .35
t    13    6.8   .096   -5.2   -.26
   Malik Fitts            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
2     6   32.0   .275   15.7   2.04
3     3     .2   .083   -8.9   -.94
t     9   21.4   .211    7.5   1.05
   Juwan Morgan            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
2     1     .0   .026   -3.5  -1.20
3     8    6.2   .065   -9.6   -.22
t     9    5.5   .061   -8.9   -.33
   Sam Hauser            
rd  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
2     4   14.7   .177   -4.0    .49
t     4   14.7   .183   -4.0    .49

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:36 am

Celtics 120 - 108 Warriors
Pythagorean wins .80 - .20 , eWins .65 - .35

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Al Horford     Bos   32  .963   38.9   7.8   3.4   1.3   2.5   .0   2.43
.15   Stephen Curry   GS   39  .630   30.1   5.3   4.1   2.6   1.9   .0   1.88
.12   Marcus Smart   Bos   29  .818   25.5   7.1   5.0   2.8    .0   .0   2.05
.11   Jaylen Brown   Bos   38  .500   21.8   7.6   4.8   2.2   4.2  1.0   1.41
.07   Jayson Tatum   Bos   41  .293    7.4   5.1  11.5   1.0   1.9   .0    .86

.06   Derrick White  Bos   32  .808   26.4   1.2   3.2    .0   2.3   .0    .97
.06  Robert Williams Bos   25  1.00   15.0   9.9    .0   1.6   3.2  5.9   1.15
.06   Kevon Looney    GS   25  .400    4.4  14.9   6.4    .0   2.9  4.4   1.10
.06   Andrew Wiggins  GS   35  .625   15.4   5.9    .0    .9   1.1  3.2    .77
.05 Payton Pritchard Bos   16  1.00   19.0  13.5   3.9    .0    .0   .0   1.63

eWin   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04   Otto Porter     GS   24  1.20   18.0   6.3    .0   2.5   1.4   .0    .88
.02   Andre Iguodala  GS   12  .875   22.4    .0   6.7    .0   2.6   .0    .80
.01   Draymond Green  GS   38  .148    1.6  12.0   4.2   1.7   2.9   .0    .15
.01   Klay Thompson   GS   39  .536    9.6   2.1   2.5    .0    .0   .0    .13
.00  Grant Williams  Bos   16  .000     .0   6.7   5.9    .0    .0   .0    .05
-.02  Jordan Poole    GS   25  .500   10.4   3.0   2.3    .0   5.4   .0   -.35

shooting : Bos .645 - .565 GS
rebounds: 39 - 39
turnovers: Bos 13 - 14 GS

Alternative summary stats are derived by subtracting yesterday's numbers from the current ones at b-r.com:

Code: Select all

wins   Finals         tm   Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.19   Al Horford     Bos   32   32.5   .352   16.0   2.42
.18   Stephen Curry   GS   39   30.7   .215   13.6   1.88
.17   Marcus Smart   Bos   29   31.4   .391   14.5   2.05
.10   Derrick White  Bos   32   19.7   .235    3.9    .96
.09   Otto Porter     GS   24   23.9   .218   12.0    .86

.08 Payton Pritchard Bos   16   28.0   .366   11.7   1.65
.07  Andrew Wiggins   GS   35   19.3   .083    3.4    .76
.07  Robert Williams Bos   25   21.4   .185    4.1   1.17
.06   Kevon Looney    GS   25   20.2   .116    4.7   1.10
.05   Jaylen Brown   Bos   38   15.8  -.001   -2.7   1.40

wins   Finals         tm   Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.04  Andre Iguodala   GS   12   20.0   .252    5.0    .79
.03   Daniel Theis   Bos    6   24.0   .300   12.8    .80
.02   Klay Thompson   GS   39   11.1   .031   -3.0    .13
-.00  Jayson Tatum   Bos   41    4.1  -.030   -6.1    .86
-.01  Grant Williams Bos   16    2.5  -.031   -4.4    .06

-.07  Jordan Poole    GS   25    -.3  -.235  -16.7   -.36
-.09  Draymond Green  GS   38   -1.7  -.225  -14.7    .13

wins   Finals        tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.67    totals        Bos  240   18.8   .170   4.03   1.30
.34    totals         GS  240   15.5   .037   0.40    .69

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html
eWins per 480 minutes adheres to 1.00 as average for the series. BPM shows that on average, a player on the floor in this series is about 2.2 pts/100 better than NBA avg. This translates to say an e480 of about .60 (or WS/48 of .060) in this series is NBA avg.
It's a tough environment!

DarkStar48 · Post by **DarkStar48** » Fri Jun 03, 2022 12:44 pm

Those Horford and Smart FMVP betting odds are looking good, especially if it ends up being a short series (that is, less opportunities for Tatum and Brown to have great games).

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:18 am

Stephen Curry leads the Warriors, and he is overdue for a Finals MVP. He's been robbed once already, eclipsed by a teammate twice, and got some recent vindication with the inaugural WCF-mvp.
And in this run back to the Finals has he really been the biggest influence in any series? Here are the top 5's in each round, Dubs and opponents:

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.17  Nikola Jokić   Den   34  .633   32.9  15.6   5.6   1.7   5.5  1.1   3.28
.80   Stephen Curry   GS   30  .628   32.3   4.5   6.0   1.8   3.4   .5   2.57
.64   Jordan Poole    GS   32  .700   26.2   3.1   5.9   1.5   2.9   .4   1.89
.52   Klay Thompson   GS   35  .642   22.5   4.7   1.4   1.2   1.4   .8   1.43
.45   Draymond Green  GS   33  .600   10.1   7.0   7.9   1.5   1.9  1.8   1.31

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.86   Stephen Curry   GS   36  .559   27.7   4.6   5.4    .8   2.6   .5   1.93
.81   Ja Morant      Mem   19  .615   40.1   5.7   7.5   2.6   2.5   .0   3.36
.52  Jaren Jackson   Mem   31  .509   19.4   6.7   1.5    .9   1.5  2.7   1.35
.46   Jordan Poole    GS   30  .569   22.0   4.5   4.5    .2   3.7   .8   1.22
.42   Klay Thompson   GS   35  .507   16.9   4.8   2.4   1.4   1.9  1.0    .95

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.90   Luka Dončić    Dal   38  .546   28.8   8.9   5.6   1.7   3.8  1.0   2.26
.74   Stephen Curry   GS   35  .580   26.0   7.8   7.2    .8   3.1   .4   2.03
.50   Kevon Looney    GS   28  .697   15.4  15.7   3.6    .2    .9   .8   1.71
.45   Jordan Poole    GS   28  .774   26.0   3.9   4.3   1.6   2.8   .2   1.53
.40   Andrew Wiggins  GS   37  .531   16.0   8.1   2.6    .5    .9   .4   1.06

He just nips Ja Morant in round 2 -- playing twice as many minutes -- in eWins. What do other stats say?

Code: Select all

wins   round 1        tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.93   Nikola Jokić   Den   171   32.8   .196   10.7   3.28
.73   Stephen Curry   GS   150   29.5   .218    8.6   2.57
.62   Jordan Poole    GS   162   23.2   .213    5.2   1.89
.47   Draymond Green  GS   164   16.6   .167    4.5   1.31
.45   Klay Thompson   GS   173   19.5   .114    2.2   1.43

wins   round 2        tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.81   Ja Morant      Mem   116   35.3   .314   16.2   3.36
.76   Stephen Curry   GS   214   19.8   .163    5.5   1.93
.46   Jaren Jackson  Mem   185   17.5   .117    1.7   1.35
.38  Andrew Wiggins   GS   198   14.8   .103    0.9    .81
.35   Desmond Bane   Mem   200   13.7   .115    0.5    .57

wins   round 3        tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.66   Luka Dončić    Dal   191   25.0   .079    6.1   2.26
.63   Stephen Curry   GS   174   22.5   .185    4.9   2.03
.55   Kevon Looney    GS   140   23.1   .251    6.2   1.71
.53   Jordan Poole    GS   140   22.8   .246    5.7   1.53
.39   Sp. Dinwiddie  Dal   137   20.5   .130    5.0   1.16

While Win Shares loves a winner (and hates losers), it's not enough to offset major advantages these other stats acknowledge.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:50 pm

According to these pages:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... pattern=H0
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... pattern=H0
... In 7 game playoff series since 1984, when the home team loses Game 1, they still are likely to win the series. Needing to win 4 of 6, they have done so 61 times and failed 57 times.

In the 2-2-1-1-1 home-away format, teams in the Warriors' current shape are 57-54; and only once has it occurred in the Finals: In 1984, the Celtics lost at home to the Lakers and still won the title.
In the 2-3-2 format, there were 7 such situations; most recently, 2013, the Heat lost the opener to the Spurs yet prevailed in 7.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:22 am

Warriors 1 - 1 Celtics
avg score 107.5 - 104.0
Pyth wins 1.22 - .78 , eWins 1.11 - .89

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.42   Stephen Curry   GS   36  .612   35.6   6.3   4.7   3.0   2.1   .0   2.82
.21   Kevon Looney    GS   24  .727   15.8  13.3   5.3   2.2   1.5  3.0   2.13
.18   Jayson Tatum   Bos   38  .460   16.0   5.7   7.9   1.0   3.1   .0   1.16
.17   Al Horford     Bos   30  .800   22.2   8.9   2.4    .6   2.6   .6   1.39
.16   Jaylen Brown   Bos   33  .471   18.9   7.7   4.5   1.1   3.6   .6   1.19

.15   Otto Porter     GS   20  1.25   23.6   6.3    .8   4.0    .8   .0   1.81
.09  Andrew Wiggins   GS   33  .534   14.9   6.7   1.1    .5   1.7  1.7    .67
.08   Derrick White  Bos   31  .611   18.9   2.9   2.8    .6   3.0  1.1    .66
.08   Marcus Smart   Bos   28  .588   13.4   4.8   5.9   2.0   3.5   .0    .71
.08  Robert Williams Bos   20  1.00   14.2   7.5    .9    .9   1.9  5.4    .99

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06  Draymond Green   GS   37  .325    3.8   8.9   6.1   1.5   2.0   .5    .40
.06 Payton Pritchard Bos   17  .545    9.8   9.6   3.7    .9   1.0   .0    .84
.06  Nemanja Bjelica  GS    6  .900   30.8  14.7    .0   2.2   2.2   .0   2.32
.06   Jordan Poole    GS   24  .565   19.1   3.1   3.5   1.4   4.9   .0    .58
.04   Gary Payton     GS   13  .875   13.5   4.4   4.0    .0    .0   .0    .69

.03  Andre Iguodala   GS    6  .875   28.3    .0   7.4    .0   2.4   .0   1.38
.02   Aaron Nesmith  Bos    6  .500    8.9   5.6   5.3   2.7    .0   .0   1.03
.01   Klay Thompson   GS   35  .382    8.5   2.9   2.1   1.0   1.1   .0    .06
.00   Daniel Theis   Bos   10  .750    4.9   7.5   1.4    .0   1.5  2.9    .07
-.01  Grant Williams Bos   19  .600    4.8   3.6   3.4    .0    .0   .8   -.09

shooting : Bos .573 - .561 GS
rebounds: Bos 41.0 - 40.5 GS
turnovers: GS 13.0 - 16.0 Bos

Code: Select all

wins   Finals   tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
.42   Curry     GS   36   30.2   .262   13.9   2.82     .40   .39   .51   .42
.26   Looney    GS   24   28.1   .321   11.8   2.13     .24   .31   .30   .21
.20   Porter    GS   20   24.3   .298   13.6   1.81     .17   .24   .27   .15
.18   Horford  Bos   30   17.2   .154    4.6   1.39     .16   .19   .20   .17
.11   Tatum    Bos   38   11.7   .022    1.0   1.16     .10   .03   .15   .18

.11 R Williams Bos   20   18.6   .181    3.7    .99     .11   .15   .12   .08
.10   White    Bos   31   13.5   .084    1.0    .66     .11   .11   .12   .08
.09   Wiggins   GS   33   13.4   .070   -0.7    .67     .11   .10   .09   .09
.08  Pritchard Bos   17   16.7   .131    3.6    .84     .08   .09   .10   .06
.07   Smart    Bos   28   12.4   .057   -0.5    .71     .08   .07   .08   .08

wins   Finals   tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
.07   Bjelica   GS    6   31.6   .357   11.7   2.32     .07   .09   .08   .06
.07   Payton    GS   13   15.2   .189    4.6    .69     .05   .10   .09   .04
.06   Brown    Bos   33   13.1  -.041   -2.8   1.19     .11  -.05   .03   .16
.05  Iguodala   GS    6   20.0   .279    5.0   1.38     .04   .07   .04   .03
.04   Nesmith  Bos    6   19.9   .189    9.5   1.03     .04   .04   .06   .02

.03 G Williams Bos   19    8.0   .079   -0.8   -.09     .02   .06   .05  -.01
.03   Green     GS   37    7.4   .022   -4.3    .40     .02   .03  -.01   .06
.02   Theis    Bos   10    8.7   .065    0.4    .07     .01   .03   .04   .00
.01   Poole     GS   24    9.8  -.043   -4.4    .58     .04  -.04  -.01   .06
-.05  Thompson  GS   35    4.7  -.062   -7.5    .06    -.02  -.09  -.10   .01

wins   Finals   tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
1.13   totals   GS  240   16.0   .117   2.45   1.11    1.11  1.17  1.23  1.11
0.92   totals  Bos  240   14.2   .085   1.79    .89     .91   .85  1.11   .89

DarkStar48 · Post by **DarkStar48** » Mon Jun 06, 2022 1:19 pm

Two games in, and Curry is far and away the most valuable player on either team. Horford for FMVP is becoming more of a possibility if BOS ends up winning.

I have not been surprised by OPJ’s impact this playoffs — he is one of the best wings in the NBA and will be one of hottest free agents this offseason.

However, I (and I don’t think anyone) expected Looney to be performing as well as as he is, especially against players (Powell, Williams, Horford) who most observers would have considered as good if not clearly better, at least either offensively or defensively, as him.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Mon Jun 06, 2022 2:15 pm

Looney was among the 20 most-improved players relative to last season, if you look at that thread. He added about 3 pts and 3 reb per 36 from last year.
And in the OP in this thread, it seems he has stepped up in each series -- starting slowly against Jokic, getting stronger each round.
He was very good in 2019, then missed at least half of the next 2 seasons. He's just back to his previous trajectory.

Otto Porter is a similar story, 4 years ago on an all-star path in Washington, then 3 mostly lost years, on the scrap heap in Orlando before the Dubs got him for pennies on the dollar. Now with career high Reb%, career low Usg%, his TS% is back to pushing .600.
He had abysmal stats vs Den, much better vs Mem, and sensational since then -- when he's been available. (see OP)

According to GameScore, Horford's had his 2nd-best and next-to-worst games of the postseason. Ranked against his full season of games, same/same.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... elog/2022/

Now a best of 5, with 3 games in Boston, Celts given a 60-40 edge at b-r.com

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Thu Jun 09, 2022 1:30 pm

Celtics 2 - 1 Warriors
avg score 108 - 105
Pyth wins 1.78 - 1.22 , eWins 1.64 - 1.36

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.52   Stephen Curry   GS   36  .635   34.6   5.5   3.6   2.6   2.4   .0   2.33
.35   Jaylen Brown   Bos   35  .544   23.1   8.5   4.6    .7   2.9   .7   1.60
.33   Jayson Tatum   Bos   39  .475   18.0   5.9   7.9   1.0   2.6   .0   1.36
.30   Al Horford     Bos   30  .765   20.5   9.9   4.1    .9   1.7   .8   1.61
.25   Kevon Looney    GS   21  .733   16.3  14.3   5.6   1.7   2.9  2.3   1.87

.21  Robert Williams Bos   22  .900   14.1  11.1    .6   2.3   1.2  5.6   1.56
.19   Marcus Smart   Bos   31  .587   18.3   6.0   5.5   1.2   4.1   .0    .98
.18   Otto Porter     GS   20  1.17   20.8   4.7   2.7   3.2   1.1   .0   1.41
.15  Andrew Wiggins   GS   35  .521   14.4   6.8   1.3   1.0   2.1  1.7    .69
.11   Klay Thompson   GS   36  .472   12.8   2.9   2.3   1.0    .7   .3    .48

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.09   Derrick White  Bos   29  .548   15.2   2.6   2.8    .8   2.5  1.2    .48
.06 Payton Pritchard Bos   15  .577   10.7   8.0   3.7    .8   1.5   .0    .68
.06   Jordan Poole    GS   24  .563   16.9   3.5   3.6    .9   4.8   .0    .41
.05  Nemanja Bjelica  GS    5  .750   22.0  12.6   1.9   1.9   2.0   .0   1.63
.04  Grant Williams  Bos   19  .615    9.0   5.7   2.3    .6    .6   .6    .31

.03  Andre Iguodala   GS    5  .875   23.0    .0   6.2    .0   2.2   .0    .93
.02   Gary Payton     GS   12  .643    8.3   3.8   3.4    .8    .0   .0    .27
.02  Draymond Green   GS   36  .313    2.8   7.4   5.0   1.0   2.1   .7    .08
.02   Aaron Nesmith  Bos    5  .400    5.7   6.9   4.2   2.2    .0   .0    .64
.01   Daniel Theis   Bos    7  .750    5.3   8.5   1.6    .0   1.6  3.1    .28

shooting : Bos .573 - .569 GS
rebounds: Bos 43.0 - 37.3 GS
turnovers: GS 14.3 - 14.7 Bos

Code: Select all

wins   Finals   tm  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     perW    WS   bpmW   eW
.52   Curry     GS  108   28.1   .203   11.6   2.33      .55   .46   .67   .52
.34   Horford  Bos   90   20.1   .220    7.3   1.61      .29   .41   .40   .30
.28   Looney    GS   63   25.5   .248    8.7   1.87      .28   .33   .32   .25
.27   Brown    Bos  105   18.5   .103    2.2   1.60      .30   .22   .26   .35
.26   Porter    GS   60   22.1   .251   12.5   1.41      .22   .31   .39   .18

.26  RWilliams Bos   65   22.8   .253    6.9   1.56      .25   .34   .28   .21
.25   Tatum    Bos  117   14.2   .082    2.4   1.36      .22   .20   .30   .33
.14   Smart    Bos   94   13.5   .071   -1.4    .98      .16   .14   .10   .19
.12   Wiggins   GS  106   13.1   .025   -1.0    .69      .17   .05   .13   .15
.10   White    Bos   86   11.1   .074   -1.4    .48      .10   .13   .09   .09

wins   Finals   tm  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     perW    WS   bpmW   eW
.09  Thompson   GS  108   11.4   .019   -1.5    .48      .13   .04   .11   .11
.09  Pritchard Bos   44   14.5   .120    2.3    .68      .09   .11   .11   .06
.08  GWilliams Bos   57   11.7   .122    0.3    .31      .08   .14   .10   .04
.07   Payton    GS   37   12.5   .158    1.9    .27      .06   .12   .09   .02
.06   Bjelica   GS   15   25.2   .231    7.5   1.63      .07   .07   .07   .05

.04  Iguodala   GS   14   17.0   .224    3.0    .93      .04   .07   .04   .03
.03   Nesmith  Bos   14   13.5   .096    3.7    .64      .02   .03   .04   .02
.02   Fitts    Bos    7   18.4   .197    9.3    .86      .02   .03   .04   .01
.02   Theis    Bos   20    8.7   .065    0.4    .28      .01   .03   .04   .01
.02  Stauskas  Bos    7   16.3   .169    5.8   1.11      .02   .02   .03   .02

wins   Finals   tm  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     perW    WS   bpmW   eW
.02   Moody     GS    9   14.2   .090    4.9   -.03      .02   .02   .03   .00
.01   Hauser   Bos    8    9.9   .096    1.7    .00      .01   .02   .02   .00
-.00  Poole     GS   72    9.1  -.068   -4.9    .41      .05  -.10  -.03   .06
-.00  Kuminga   GS    6    5.6  -.053   -6.0   -.62      .00  -.01   .00  -.01
-.02 T-Anderson GS    7   -2.9  -.294   -7.7   -.14     -.01  -.04  -.01   .00

-.04  Green     GS  107    4.6  -.016   -6.5    .08     -.03  -.04  -.11   .02
-.04  Lee       GS    7  -15.4  -.470  -24.8   -.98     -.03  -.07  -.06  -.01

wins   Finals   tm  Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
1.65   totals  Bos  720   15.6   .124   2.38   1.09     1.60  1.86  1.83  1.64
1.36   totals   GS  719   15.1   .081   1.72    .91     1.52  1.21  1.64  1.36

DarkStar48 · Post by **DarkStar48** » Thu Jun 09, 2022 5:08 pm

Curry continues to distinguish himself among both teams, but BOS is in control despite the inconsistent play of their starters. Considering how much of the pre-Finals discussion around him was about how much he “should” get/have an NBA FMVP, I wonder if his great performance still plays a role in the voting if GSW ends up losing, even in a short series.

Horford seemed to have been shaping up (supported by the “wins” stats above) as the Celtic’s front runner for NBA FMVP, but the popular discussion I have seen seems to have shifted heavily to Brown. Horford had two net positive impact games (Gm. 1, Gm. 3) and one net negative one (Gm. 2), whereas all of Brown’s 3 games have been overall positive. At the same time, Horford’s cumulative contribution based on the box-score numbers appears to be greater than Brown. (Maybe plus/minus data shows something different?) Assuming Horford keeps playing like this, I don’t see a good reason not to give him the FMVP.

Porter Jr. has been huge for the Warriors, but outside of Gm. 1, he can’t get more than 20 min. on the floor from Kerr. Looney is another weird decision whereby he is getting less of a role despite his awesome production.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Fri Jun 10, 2022 9:13 am

Inconsistency from game to game will normally "come out in the wash" of aggregate statistics. But in this series so far, there's a low-to-zero correlation between Celtic minutes and all the b-r.com stats. For the Dubs, the correlations are very negative!
Celts top 4 are the same 4 in all these, in various orders:

Code: Select all

per-Wins          PER      bpm-Wins         BPM
.30   Brown      18.5      .40   Horford    7.3
.29   Horford    20.1      .30   Tatum      2.4
.25   R Williams 22.8      .28   R Williams 6.9
.22   Tatum      14.2      .26   Brown      2.2
.16   Smart      13.5      .11   Pritchard  2.3
                  
Win Shares      WS/48      eWins           e480
.41   Horford    .220      .35   Brown     1.60
.34   R Williams .253      .33   Tatum     1.36
.22   Brown      .103      .30   Horford   1.61
.20   Tatum      .082      .21  R Williams 1.56
.14   G Williams .122      .19   Smart      .98

Marcus Smart makes defensive plays and scores tough baskets. He could be the dark horse here. The next Iguodala.

APBRmetrics

2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors

Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors