It is long past time for me to have any theoretical, remote hope for rational testing / concentration on best performers from Daigneault or meaningful direction from front office. He can do what he wants and I can be and am appalled by it relative to alternatives.
5 of 6 most used lineups are negative. 9 of 11 most used negative with 6 double digit negative. All of 12 most used pairs negative and 7 by -7 or worse.
Chaos has surprisingly won 43% of games in a league with lots of chaotic / suboptimal lineup management, injuries, rest losses and tanking but it is not the right approach to be a consistent playoff team.
Your 5 suggested lineups in order have received 1 minute, none, 1, none and 6 minutes. The last one was good in that largest but still very tiny sample.
Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Like trying brand new?
Try this sometime:
SGA Joe Wiggins K Will Musc 8 minutes
SGA Dort Wig Omoruyi Musc 24
Giddey Mann Joe K Will JRE 16
Probably give some of Muscala's minutes to Bazley, Jaylin W or Omoruyi or JRE but this is concept and won't be tried so I am not changing this detail.
Makes heavy use of best 7 pairs in 20 most used. Might do better with more review but not going to it more right now.
Lighter on Giddey but that's what I'd do if trying to win right now. They of course won't because he was a design pick and plays regardless of results.
Design commitments or actual performance as primary basis for lineup choice? They have chosen the former. Based on their results, I'd try the latter. The wins they gotten are absolutely not coming from the design based lineups. Rather it must come from chaos based dink lineups. As much as I am uncomfortable with that approach working / lasting in long run and think it could be improved upon, it must be working better than their design based stuff. Working to 43% win.
Try this sometime:
SGA Joe Wiggins K Will Musc 8 minutes
SGA Dort Wig Omoruyi Musc 24
Giddey Mann Joe K Will JRE 16
Probably give some of Muscala's minutes to Bazley, Jaylin W or Omoruyi or JRE but this is concept and won't be tried so I am not changing this detail.
Makes heavy use of best 7 pairs in 20 most used. Might do better with more review but not going to it more right now.
Lighter on Giddey but that's what I'd do if trying to win right now. They of course won't because he was a design pick and plays regardless of results.
Design commitments or actual performance as primary basis for lineup choice? They have chosen the former. Based on their results, I'd try the latter. The wins they gotten are absolutely not coming from the design based lineups. Rather it must come from chaos based dink lineups. As much as I am uncomfortable with that approach working / lasting in long run and think it could be improved upon, it must be working better than their design based stuff. Working to 43% win.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder have 26th ranked net rating in 1st and 2nd quarters. Very best in league for 3rd quarter. Catch up effort. But then back to 23rd in the 4th.
Maybe I'll look at 3rd quarter lineups.
There are a couple of really strong Muscala lineups in the 3rd but it is almost entirely dink chaos. Perhaps some good adjustments but it is still dink chaos and not order or main design success.
Maybe I'll look at 3rd quarter lineups.
There are a couple of really strong Muscala lineups in the 3rd but it is almost entirely dink chaos. Perhaps some good adjustments but it is still dink chaos and not order or main design success.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
These are the players I consider to be the main "design pieces" at this time:
SGA, Giddey, Dort, JDub, Dieng, Pokusevski, JRE and Holmgren.
Giddey is negative with 8 of 10 most used players. The exceptions are K Williiams and Muscala. Either you play him with one or both or you lose pretty badly.
Jalen Williams is negative with 10 of 10. All at least moderately badly except with K Williams.
Dort is only mildly negative with SGA but bad with the other 3 most common starters (Giddey, JDub and Pokusevski). He is only mildly negative with K Williams and JRE. You can construct a non-terrible starting lineup with him, just not the ones most favored. He has great results with bench players. Play him more with bench and / or elevate one or more bench player to starting lineup.
Pokusevski is negative with main rotation except I Joe. He should not play.
It is too early with Dieng. Mixed individual and team results.
JRE is bad with starters, very good with bench. Play him more with bench.
Holmgren is unknown.
Apart from SGA, that is 2 somewhat workable, especially with bench, 3 bad so far with no known way to fix and 2 unknowns.
That calls for development work that heretofore has not gotten close to enough success.
Others on roster could be elevated or moved out or continue to be used as spare parts. I might address them later.
But the core mostly doesn't work.
SGA, Giddey, Dort, JDub, Dieng, Pokusevski, JRE and Holmgren.
Giddey is negative with 8 of 10 most used players. The exceptions are K Williiams and Muscala. Either you play him with one or both or you lose pretty badly.
Jalen Williams is negative with 10 of 10. All at least moderately badly except with K Williams.
Dort is only mildly negative with SGA but bad with the other 3 most common starters (Giddey, JDub and Pokusevski). He is only mildly negative with K Williams and JRE. You can construct a non-terrible starting lineup with him, just not the ones most favored. He has great results with bench players. Play him more with bench and / or elevate one or more bench player to starting lineup.
Pokusevski is negative with main rotation except I Joe. He should not play.
It is too early with Dieng. Mixed individual and team results.
JRE is bad with starters, very good with bench. Play him more with bench.
Holmgren is unknown.
Apart from SGA, that is 2 somewhat workable, especially with bench, 3 bad so far with no known way to fix and 2 unknowns.
That calls for development work that heretofore has not gotten close to enough success.
Others on roster could be elevated or moved out or continue to be used as spare parts. I might address them later.
But the core mostly doesn't work.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Josh Giddey is bottom 2% in league on DARKO projection and bottom 2% on in season change. His DARKO projection is lowest on team by more than 15%. It is a 2 way negative. Bottom 16% on offense, bottom 8% on defense.
Right of wrong still to be determined. I was not only one of few who did not put Giddey in lottery level, I am only person I am aware of who did not put him in first round. Either I was too skeptical and am wrong now in some minds or will be in the future to them and possibly objective measures, or I made the unique right call. Dismiss or maybe pay attention. You make that call on this case and / or many others.
The top 5 are SGA, Muscala, Joe, K Williams... and Lindy Waters.
Dort 9th, Jalen Williams 10th. Pokusevski 16th, Bazley 15th. If I didn't made them, they are in the middle.
Joe and Omoruyi's projections are most improved. Strangely SGA's is up only +0.1 since the beginning of the season. Giddey and Pokusevski with the far biggest declines this season. Promoted and propped up by organization.
Dort with modest improvement. Wiggins with twice as much and now projected ahead of Dort.
Right of wrong still to be determined. I was not only one of few who did not put Giddey in lottery level, I am only person I am aware of who did not put him in first round. Either I was too skeptical and am wrong now in some minds or will be in the future to them and possibly objective measures, or I made the unique right call. Dismiss or maybe pay attention. You make that call on this case and / or many others.
The top 5 are SGA, Muscala, Joe, K Williams... and Lindy Waters.
Dort 9th, Jalen Williams 10th. Pokusevski 16th, Bazley 15th. If I didn't made them, they are in the middle.
Joe and Omoruyi's projections are most improved. Strangely SGA's is up only +0.1 since the beginning of the season. Giddey and Pokusevski with the far biggest declines this season. Promoted and propped up by organization.
Dort with modest improvement. Wiggins with twice as much and now projected ahead of Dort.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
New starting lineup last game went -37pts / 100p. Oh, lets do that again Coach D thought. -126pts / 100p in opening stint tonight.
Ends up -70pts / 100p for game.
Ends up -70pts / 100p for game.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Giddey 20 / 10 but also worst raw plus minus on court. I Joe, best.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
The 7 players with the worst +/- on the court are 6 frequent or near always starters and a guy gifted starting the previous 2 years because of team design commitment that finally was exhausted.
All negative except for SGA with a fraction of a point positive. Giddey 2nd worst at nearly -7pts / 100p, with only Poku worse (about twice as bad).
On average it is the bench that is positive and almost only the bench on average.
All negative except for SGA with a fraction of a point positive. Giddey 2nd worst at nearly -7pts / 100p, with only Poku worse (about twice as bad).
On average it is the bench that is positive and almost only the bench on average.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
3 games into January, Giddey has the start of his 1st / only positive monthly team +/- while on the court in his early career. Will it last?
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Jalen Williams has had 74% of games with negative raw team +/- on the court before tonight. Team worst mark with a few minutes to play now.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Any comments on how the Thunder may be projecting to ~14 wins more than everyone expected?
Player improvement? Brilliant coaching? Rookies?
Player improvement? Brilliant coaching? Rookies?
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
More than half the season to go, so less than half of that projected seasonal overachievement is realized.
Wins due to bench and some situational use of the near 500 dink lineups that employ the bench effectively.
Also lots of opponent resting. More or less than others? I dunno.
10-4 against lottery level teams. 4-13 against top 10. Top 9 on home games to date.
+3 actual wins over Pythagorean "expected". Luck or grit or coaching. Does the edge last?
Coaching includes 12 of 14 most used lineups negative with 7 -20 pts / 100p or worse. 17 of 20 most used pairs negative, including all of the 13 most used.
It is not a completely simple story but there is more bad than good.
2 elite factors (own and opponent turnovers), 2 average, 4 bottom quartile.
Moreyball? One part elite, 2 parts bottom third.
All first year players from almost -2 to over -5 on BPM estimate. -2 is not bad for rookies but not a major source of help on average. Variably, perhaps.
SGA on court, win by less than 1 pt. Off, lose by about 2.
7 of next 10 games against playoff level teams and other 3 against teams expected to be playoff level but not quite currently. 4 home / 6 road. Will they look as good in 10 games? Probably not, but we'll see.
Wins due to bench and some situational use of the near 500 dink lineups that employ the bench effectively.
Also lots of opponent resting. More or less than others? I dunno.
10-4 against lottery level teams. 4-13 against top 10. Top 9 on home games to date.
+3 actual wins over Pythagorean "expected". Luck or grit or coaching. Does the edge last?
Coaching includes 12 of 14 most used lineups negative with 7 -20 pts / 100p or worse. 17 of 20 most used pairs negative, including all of the 13 most used.
It is not a completely simple story but there is more bad than good.
2 elite factors (own and opponent turnovers), 2 average, 4 bottom quartile.
Moreyball? One part elite, 2 parts bottom third.
All first year players from almost -2 to over -5 on BPM estimate. -2 is not bad for rookies but not a major source of help on average. Variably, perhaps.
SGA on court, win by less than 1 pt. Off, lose by about 2.
7 of next 10 games against playoff level teams and other 3 against teams expected to be playoff level but not quite currently. 4 home / 6 road. Will they look as good in 10 games? Probably not, but we'll see.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Starting lineup goes -29pts / 100p tonight. Pretty typical. Awful or acceptably awful choice / performance? Cost them the win.
Giddey with a triple double and 2nd worst raw team +/- on the court. Jalen Williams 3rd worst.
Giddey with a triple double and 2nd worst raw team +/- on the court. Jalen Williams 3rd worst.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
OK so here are this year and last year numbers. Almost their entire lineup from last year is still there, and all but a couple have improved by every measure. And still, they may not have 5 above-avg players to put on the floor at any time, starting or otherwise.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... /2023.html
(I worked up this table a couple days ago, so not quite current.)
16 guys getting decent minutes and arguably positive in some sense, seems pretty unique.
Is it possible they have both the weakest top-5 and the strongest next-10 in the league?
You can only start 5, and it's their fate to get pummeled most nights. And then the non-starters are almost as good.
Oh, and here are last year and this year On-Off numbers. Close to zero correlation year to year.Assuming SGA gets hammered along with the other starters, then makes it up alongside the bench mob.
Code: Select all
eW+ ws+ OKC Min e484 PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM
1.45 2.54 Shai 1284 2.17 26.7 .208 6.7 1.64 20.9 .113 3.4
-.06 .59 Dort 1174 .72 12.2 .064 -2.6 .77 12.3 .040 -2.3
+.89 .99 Giddey 1075 1.20 15.3 .054 -0.4 .82 13.3 .010 -0.9
R Jalen W 996 .65 12.7 .075 -2.0
+.02 .12 T Mann 718 .50 9.9 .010 -3.7 .52 10.2 .002 -4.4
+.43 .87 Pokusevski 677 .92 14.3 .076 0.5 .64 12.0 .014 -2.6
+.18 .94 Kenrich W 691 .71 14.8 .146 0.4 .61 13.3 .081 -0.3
+.21 .52 Wiggins 569 .49 12.0 .092 -1.9 .34 10.3 .048 -4.3
+.34 .80 R-Earl 548 .90 15.4 .135 0.1 .63 11.7 .065 -2.2
+.92 1.27 I Joe 445 1.10 16.9 .172 3.0 .10 7.7 .035 -4.6
eW+ ws+ OKC Min e484 PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM
-.42 -.35 Muscala 423 .87 13.8 .130 0.3 1.40 19.7 .170 5.0
-.05 .13 Bazley 404 .63 12.3 .060 -1.4 .73 12.6 .044 -1.8
-.23 -.69 Omoruyi 232 .60 11.3 .058 -4.4 1.17 17.0 .201 4.0
R Dieng 220 .34 9.6 .054 -1.9
-.11 .07 Waters 165 .36 11.8 .102 0.7 .76 13.0 .081 -1.6
R Jaylin W 131 .50 7.8 .035 -5.1
3.58 7.80 total
(I worked up this table a couple days ago, so not quite current.)
16 guys getting decent minutes and arguably positive in some sense, seems pretty unique.
Is it possible they have both the weakest top-5 and the strongest next-10 in the league?
You can only start 5, and it's their fate to get pummeled most nights. And then the non-starters are almost as good.
Oh, and here are last year and this year On-Off numbers. Close to zero correlation year to year.
Code: Select all
On-Off '22 '23
Shai G-Alexander 2.9 2.5
Luguentz Dort -0.3 -2.2
Josh Giddey -0.3 -14.7
Jalen Williams -- -12.4
Tre Mann -4.0 5.9
Aleksej Pokusevski 7.3 -20.1
Kenrich Williams 13.1 0.6
Aaron Wiggins 1.5 7.6
Jeremiah R-Earl -3.6 -2.9
Isaiah Joe -0.6 15.0
Mike Muscala 10.4 15.4
Darius Bazley -6.4 -1.2
Eugene Omoruyi -1.0 5.4
Ousmane Dieng -- 6.2
Lindy Waters III 3.8 29.6
Jaylin Williams -- 3.7
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Different reference points available. Compared to last season, they are less bad. But they are still not good.
The core design of starters remains mostly awful beyond SGA-Dort pairing. Even that best bigger minute pair is -2 / 100p. 9 of the 12 most used are -6 to far worse.
The core design of starters remains mostly awful beyond SGA-Dort pairing. Even that best bigger minute pair is -2 / 100p. 9 of the 12 most used are -6 to far worse.