Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
By simple sum of RAPM factors, SGA-Giddey was slightly negative last season and average actual results were modestly worse.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Andrew Schlecht (roughly):
1. "Giddey is obviously among the 4 best players on the Thunder"
2. "It is too early to draw conclusions about Giddey and the Thunder"
3. "Giddey is the best for getting the Thunder into the style they want to play"
Statement 1 is in conflict with statement 2.
By DRIP projection, Giddey is tied for 6th to 9th on team and a full point behind 4th.
By RAPM factors, Giddey has negative impact on team fg%, ft rate, turnovers and shot defense. That is the opposite of how they want to play.
More: https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1706 ... 70685?s=20
1. "Giddey is obviously among the 4 best players on the Thunder"
2. "It is too early to draw conclusions about Giddey and the Thunder"
3. "Giddey is the best for getting the Thunder into the style they want to play"
Statement 1 is in conflict with statement 2.
By DRIP projection, Giddey is tied for 6th to 9th on team and a full point behind 4th.
By RAPM factors, Giddey has negative impact on team fg%, ft rate, turnovers and shot defense. That is the opposite of how they want to play.
More: https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1706 ... 70685?s=20
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
from previous page:
"analysis suggests 2 scoring big men together have negative synergies."
At least inside scoring traditional big men together.
Some hint that 2 "scoring / skilled big men" works well, especially with a star creator.
Is that Dieng / Holmgren? Giddey / Holmgren? TBA / Holmgren?
"analysis suggests 2 scoring big men together have negative synergies."
At least inside scoring traditional big men together.
Some hint that 2 "scoring / skilled big men" works well, especially with a star creator.
Is that Dieng / Holmgren? Giddey / Holmgren? TBA / Holmgren?
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Lineups over 80 minutes
Scotty Brooks with his young Thunder team:
2 positive, 7 negative in yr 1
6 positive, 2 negative in yr 2
9 positive, 5 negative in yr 3.
17-14 overall. 31 such lineups.
Including a 17 min / gm lineup and a 7 min / gm lineup.
% positives went from 22% to about 65%.
Billy Donovan
3 positive, 1 negative in yr 1
5 positive, 2 negative in yr 2
6 positive, 4 negative in yr 3
14-7 overall. 21 such lineups.
Including a 10 min / gm lineup and 2 around 7 min.
% positives went from 75% to 60%.
Mark Daigneault
1 positive, 4 negative in yr 1
0 positive, 3 negative in yr 2
0 positive, 5 negative in yr 3
1-12 overall. 13 such lineups.
None over 3 min / gm.
% positives went from 20% to zero% two years in a row.
In addition to having by far the worst overall record and year 3 record, Coach D had the smallest by far biggest lineup. Almost 40% less lineups over 80 minutes than Donovan and about 60% less than Brooks.
A 4th or 5th year Coach can not continue to be this bad at top lineup management and be allowed to continue the pattern and continue to Coach.
Scotty Brooks with his young Thunder team:
2 positive, 7 negative in yr 1
6 positive, 2 negative in yr 2
9 positive, 5 negative in yr 3.
17-14 overall. 31 such lineups.
Including a 17 min / gm lineup and a 7 min / gm lineup.
% positives went from 22% to about 65%.
Billy Donovan
3 positive, 1 negative in yr 1
5 positive, 2 negative in yr 2
6 positive, 4 negative in yr 3
14-7 overall. 21 such lineups.
Including a 10 min / gm lineup and 2 around 7 min.
% positives went from 75% to 60%.
Mark Daigneault
1 positive, 4 negative in yr 1
0 positive, 3 negative in yr 2
0 positive, 5 negative in yr 3
1-12 overall. 13 such lineups.
None over 3 min / gm.
% positives went from 20% to zero% two years in a row.
In addition to having by far the worst overall record and year 3 record, Coach D had the smallest by far biggest lineup. Almost 40% less lineups over 80 minutes than Donovan and about 60% less than Brooks.
A 4th or 5th year Coach can not continue to be this bad at top lineup management and be allowed to continue the pattern and continue to Coach.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Probably mentioned before but Giddey - Jaylin Williams was by far the worst big minute pair at nearly -10pts / 100p. Should be reduced but will it be virtually eliminated? If they need further test on that, they need further test on everything.. which is not possible. Priorities, limited minutes, intelligent testing... not.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder not a tax apron team at this time. But in 3 years they probably will be. Making favorable trades will be much harder under evolving rules. Will Thunder need trades in 3 years? Good chance they will, unless they make them before then.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
30% of GM's expect Thunder to be most improved team. Surely that means near 50 wins?
70% think they have the best young core. High praise. Probably too high. Griz were 6th youngest last season and already way better. Kings and Cavs are borderline young on average age but better.
70% think they have the best young core. High praise. Probably too high. Griz were 6th youngest last season and already way better. Kings and Cavs are borderline young on average age but better.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Kevin Pelton put Thunder 11th in west on his stat based projection with 1 less win than last season.
Folks expecting them to be "most improved" stand in contrast.
Folks expecting them to be "most improved" stand in contrast.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Pre-season means little or nothing... or something. Whichever you want to go with.
Fwiw, the Thunder are tied for 11th in west on w-l and 11th on net margin so far.
Scoring 120, giving up a little more.
Bottom 10 on raw fg%. Average from 3. Getting to ft line. OK rebounding. Protrcting the ball. Really not fouling, a huge change from last season.
Giving up 2nd highest raw fg% and 3pt fg% to opponents.
Fwiw, the Thunder are tied for 11th in west on w-l and 11th on net margin so far.
Scoring 120, giving up a little more.
Bottom 10 on raw fg%. Average from 3. Getting to ft line. OK rebounding. Protrcting the ball. Really not fouling, a huge change from last season.
Giving up 2nd highest raw fg% and 3pt fg% to opponents.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
SGA Joe K Will is a very strong trio (over 20pts / 100p) in about 200 minutes. Adding Giddey to this trio was pretty rare but even better.
Add Holmgren and what will the lineup do? Hope for big test but don't expect it to be big or fast.
Add Holmgren and what will the lineup do? Hope for big test but don't expect it to be big or fast.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Unlikely Thunder could get M Porter or Claxton but should keep watch and consider making the bigger or much bigger than normal offer.
Other possibilities include Cam Johnson, Okongwu, P Reed, Kessler and TMurphy. Most are unlikely to be obtainable with a normal offer but maybe for a big one. Reed or Okongwu might not be too hard to get.
Maybe Okogie, Jalen Johnson or Eason.
All these guys were in Darko top 200 and most improved last season.
Other possibilities include Cam Johnson, Okongwu, P Reed, Kessler and TMurphy. Most are unlikely to be obtainable with a normal offer but maybe for a big one. Reed or Okongwu might not be too hard to get.
Maybe Okogie, Jalen Johnson or Eason.
All these guys were in Darko top 200 and most improved last season.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder in pre-season only have 2 over 13% total rebound rate and 9 under 8%.
Great as team so far on offensive rebounding but just average on defensive rebounding. Relatively high pace is probably inflating these per game numbers.
Lineup construction will be critical to reduce instances of too many weak rebounders together, especially against opponents strong on this factor. 3 of the usual starters are in the 5-6% total rebound rate range.
Great as team so far on offensive rebounding but just average on defensive rebounding. Relatively high pace is probably inflating these per game numbers.
Lineup construction will be critical to reduce instances of too many weak rebounders together, especially against opponents strong on this factor. 3 of the usual starters are in the 5-6% total rebound rate range.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Giddey with a 7 PER so far.
Micic at 4 PER.
Good games would be helpful.
Micic at 4 PER.
Good games would be helpful.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Good game for Giddey.
Micic passed well but shot poorly again.
Micic passed well but shot poorly again.