Beyond changing lineups, I'd actively shop Thompson and / or Wiggins.
Thompson, -2.6 BPM, -6.4 on / off raw +/-. Wiggins, -6.8 BPM, -15.5 on / off raw +/-.
Podziemski should continue recent trend and play more, off bench. Which lineups and pairs? Looks mostly good but probably not with Curry, Looney and Wiggins. Very, very good with Paul, Kuminga and Saric so far. Hard to say since Kerr has barely played him in one lineup over 1 minute per game. His 284 minutes are spread over a ridiculous 74 lineups. He played really big minutes 3 times and was successful each time.
Western Conference commentary
Re: Western Conference commentary
Without a good playoffs, it is hard for me to see the Warriors continuing as after next season and beyond.
Good chance Kerr takes "sabbatical". Would be unfathomable to me to give Thompson huge money new deal or continue to rely on Wiggins.
They could continue to look meh all season. I doubt that speeds up change but there would be rationale to do it and some chance they might.
Good chance Kerr takes "sabbatical". Would be unfathomable to me to give Thompson huge money new deal or continue to rely on Wiggins.
They could continue to look meh all season. I doubt that speeds up change but there would be rationale to do it and some chance they might.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Are the Jazz tanking to try to save their top 10 protected pick? Probably.
But the 2 most used lineups suck and 90% of the 20 most used pairs are negative. The tanking is deep and / or easy.
But the 2 most used lineups suck and 90% of the 20 most used pairs are negative. The tanking is deep and / or easy.
Re: Western Conference commentary
17 straight losses for the team with the 2nd highest paid Coach in history, including 5 straight since last mention of Spurs.
5 for 41 from 3 tonight. Wembanyama falls to 25% from 3.
Sochan - Wembanyama, -19pts / 100p, 3 times worse than all other minutes. Wembanyama - no Sochan, +3 / 100p.
5 for 41 from 3 tonight. Wembanyama falls to 25% from 3.
Sochan - Wembanyama, -19pts / 100p, 3 times worse than all other minutes. Wembanyama - no Sochan, +3 / 100p.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Spurs 206 lineups so far. Thunder might be top at 236. Pops using a slightly lower rate of lineups, Coach D about the same as last season.
Both will only learn something significant or barely statistically significant on 1-2 lineups by end of season. Neither cares.
Both will only learn something significant or barely statistically significant on 1-2 lineups by end of season. Neither cares.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Nuggets have pretty weak Moreyball shot distribution and team efg% has fallen from #1 last season to 10th. They have several other weaknesses now and without that great shooting strength, they are not as formidable, at least right now.
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Keegan Murray has a pattern of way up / way down on 3pt fg%. Way up yesterday.
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December so far is probably Kawhi's best regular season boxscore numbers month ever.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Jazz draft pick next summer is top 10 protected. Currently 7th in reverse standings but 3 teams with just 1 more win.
Probably going to see trades and more other tanking moves.
Probably going to see trades and more other tanking moves.
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Vince Williams, getting minutes now and having a very good sophomore start. Was higher on him than anybody I recall.
Z Williams having trouble with 3pt shot and turnovers. Had trouble in college with...
3pt shot and turnovers. Was lower on him than anybody I recall.
Z Williams, good game tonight... except for the 3pt shot and turnovers.
Z Williams having trouble with 3pt shot and turnovers. Had trouble in college with...
3pt shot and turnovers. Was lower on him than anybody I recall.
Z Williams, good game tonight... except for the 3pt shot and turnovers.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Darko projection has been in decline for Dillon Brooks since early last season and is continuing this season.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Lakers 4 most used lineups are positive but the biggest has barely been used 5 minutes per game and the 4 combined only 13 minutes per game. That could easily be twice as much and probably should be.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Big fan of DARKO, but that estimate seems quite off.
Most +/- models are generally accurate, but not always specifically so. Dillon Brooks shooting career high efficiency (by a mile), being part of a HOU turnaround from 29th defense to 2nd, and somehow being list as a negative overall and a zero impact on defense seems objectively wrong.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Brooks 14th on team by BPM estimate.
Among other bad marks, 13th on assists, 15th on turnovers. 15th on total rebound rate. 10th on FT rate.
Highest on fouls given by more than 20% over 2nd.
Raw team +/- on and on / off are both a middle ground 6th.
Steal rate is tied for lowest of career. Blocks? Make that 1 block all season and a rate 1/8th of career average.
Usage down about 20% from previous career average. That might not be a bad thing but it tends to hurt metrics.
7 of 10 most used lineups negative (on raw basis), though most mildly. Starting unit quite strong.
Pushing 28. An age based fall-off expectation may be baked in.
Rate of Darko change has been getting steadily less good / worse for 2.5 years though negative only for last year.
64th on salary, 188th on Darko. 350th on Darko change rate. 3.7 seasons left on contract.
Among other bad marks, 13th on assists, 15th on turnovers. 15th on total rebound rate. 10th on FT rate.
Highest on fouls given by more than 20% over 2nd.
Raw team +/- on and on / off are both a middle ground 6th.
Steal rate is tied for lowest of career. Blocks? Make that 1 block all season and a rate 1/8th of career average.
Usage down about 20% from previous career average. That might not be a bad thing but it tends to hurt metrics.
7 of 10 most used lineups negative (on raw basis), though most mildly. Starting unit quite strong.
Pushing 28. An age based fall-off expectation may be baked in.
Rate of Darko change has been getting steadily less good / worse for 2.5 years though negative only for last year.
64th on salary, 188th on Darko. 350th on Darko change rate. 3.7 seasons left on contract.