WNBA

[Mike G]

Here is my first attempt at eWins for the women's league.

Code: Select all

e40G   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e404
11.7  A'ja Wilson    LVa   34  .592   31.2  13.4   2.6   2.0   1.4  2.9   3.44
7.9  Breanna Stewart NYL   34  .552   24.9   9.9   4.6   1.7   1.9  1.5   2.52
7.4 Napheesa Collier Min   34  .557   25.2  11.1   4.2   2.0   2.3  1.4   2.54
6.0  Sabrina Ionescu NYL   33  .538   24.3   5.3   7.3   1.0   3.3   .3   1.95
5.7   Jonquel Jones  NYL   31  .636   20.7  11.7   4.3    .8   2.8  1.5   1.93

5.6  Nneka Ogwumike  Sea   32  .568   21.1   9.1   3.1   2.0   1.5   .7   1.93
5.5   Alyssa Thomas  Con   33  .531   13.6  11.0  10.0   1.9   4.3   .5   1.69
5.4   Jewell Loyd    Sea   34  .490   22.8   5.1   4.2   1.5   2.5   .3   1.61
5.3  DeWanna Bonner  Con   32  .518   20.5   8.2   2.7   1.4   1.6   .7   1.66
5.3   Dearica Hamby  LAS   34  .550   18.5  11.3   3.8   1.7   3.2   .2   1.57

e40    per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e404
5.2 Arike Ogunbowale Dal   39  .510   19.3   5.0   4.6   2.2   2.6   .3   1.40
5.0   Tina Charles   Atl   29  .510   19.3  12.1   3.1   1.1   1.9   .7   1.79
5.0   Caitlin Clark  Ind   36  .581   19.5   6.4   8.3   1.6   5.7   .8   1.43
4.7   Angel Reese    Chi   32  .455   14.9  15.3   2.1   1.4   2.5   .5   1.45
4.5   Brionna Jones  Con   27  .567   21.1   7.9   2.5   1.7   1.6   .7   1.68

4.5   Ezi Magbegor   Sea   31  .576   15.4  10.0   2.4   1.2   1.7  2.6   1.46
4.5   Aliyah Boston  Ind   31  .549   15.9  11.3   3.4   1.2   2.4  1.6   1.47
4.5   Jackie Young   LVa   33  .551   19.1   5.3   6.3   1.2   2.5   .3   1.46
4.4  Kahleah Copper  Phx   33  .544   24.8   5.6   2.5    .9   3.4   .1   1.36
4.4  Skylar D-Smith  Sea   32  .493   17.9   3.4   7.9   1.6   3.3  1.1   1.41

They play a 40 game season at 40 min/G. The ranking column is eWins projected to the full season.
Final column is eWins per 404 minutes, which would be close to the average player-minutes in a game, with a few overtimes.
Not many players go 36 minutes in regular season, perhaps more likely in playoffs.
eW/404 of 1.00 would be league average.

[TeemoTeejay]

What was your methodology at doing this? It seems more box score based, am I right with that assumption? Just curious!

[Mike G]

Yes, it's all box score derived, including team/opponent averages.
The various columns are scaled to shooting% and opponent %, rebound differentials, a few other things; then weighted to most closely sum to match team avg scoring margin.

[Crow]

If eW/404 of 1.00 is league average, then 1.5 would be 50% better than average. I count 12 on list that are that high or higher. Are there any others?

By eW/484 for NBA, I counted 37 on your season end top 40 list. Are there any others?

Want to compare how many elite and elite per 100.

On numbers over 2.0, it is WNBA 3, and NBA appears to be 9, but could be more.

NBA has 3.7 times the players.

The rate of elite is at least fairly similar with a bit more for WNBA, but exact comparison would require confirmation of the numbers.

Could potentially also compare # and % above mean.


Minutes per game could be interesting as well. Top tier, above mean, average.

WNBA has 20 who average 32+ min / gm (when they played). 74 with 20+. Mean in 2023 was 15.5, so 89 above.

20% above 32 would be 38.4 and no NBA did that in regular season. Only 8 were 36+. 56 were 32+. 177 were 20+. Mean was 12.5 (again, when played).

More WNBA players play big minutes per 100 players. On average, average NBA players play less per game. (About 2/3rd more total minutes over season.)

Different leagues but fwiw brief comparison. (Did a little once or twice in past.)

A bit more:

20+pts per game: WNBA 6, NBA 38. NBA with far higher rate of 20+ scorers. Almost double proportional.

5+ ast / gm: WNBA 11, NBA 42. Pretty similar rates.


(BRef gives ranks on NBA data. Not so with W.)

[Mike G]

quick update with all who have played 200+ minutes. Min = min/G
The season is 88% completed.

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e40    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e403
11.5  A'ja Wilson     LVa   34  .592   31.0  13.4   2.7   2.0   1.4  2.9   3.47
8.0  Breanna Stewart  NYL   34  .554   24.9  10.0   4.6   1.7   1.9  1.5   2.54
7.4  Napheesa Collier Min   35  .555   24.9  11.1   4.0   1.9   2.3  1.4   2.53
6.0  Sabrina Ionescu  NYL   33  .530   24.0   5.3   7.3   1.0   3.2   .4   1.94
5.7   Jonquel Jones   NYL   31  .641   20.5  11.7   4.3    .8   2.8  1.5   1.93

5.6   Jewell Loyd     Sea   34  .494   23.3   5.1   4.2   1.4   2.5   .2   1.67
5.6   Nneka Ogwumike  Sea   32  .567   20.9   9.2   3.1   2.0   1.6   .6   1.91
5.5   Alyssa Thomas   Con   33  .528   13.7  11.0  10.1   1.9   4.3   .5   1.71
5.3   DeWanna Bonner  Con   32  .520   20.4   8.1   2.6   1.4   1.6   .7   1.65
5.2  Arike Ogunbowale Dal   39  .512   19.5   4.9   4.5   2.1   2.6   .3   1.40

e40    11-20          tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e403
5.2   Dearica Hamby   LAS   34  .551   18.4  11.2   3.8   1.7   3.2   .2   1.55
5.0   Tina Charles    Atl   29  .503   19.2  12.2   3.0   1.1   1.9   .7   1.78
5.0   Caitlin Clark   Ind   36  .582   19.6   6.3   8.3   1.5   5.8   .8   1.42
4.7   Aliyah Boston   Ind   31  .557   16.3  11.3   3.4   1.2   2.4  1.6   1.53
4.6   Brionna Jones   Con   27  .568   21.4   8.0   2.5   1.6   1.6   .7   1.72

4.6   Angel Reese     Chi   32  .455   15.1  15.3   2.1   1.4   2.5   .5   1.48
4.6   Skylar D-Smith  Sea   31  .495   18.2   3.4   8.2   1.6   3.3  1.0   1.47
4.6   Ezi Magbegor    Sea   31  .571   15.3   9.9   2.6   1.2   1.7  2.6   1.48
4.4   Jackie Young    LVa   33  .550   19.0   5.1   6.2   1.2   2.5   .3   1.44
4.3   Kahleah Copper  Phx   33  .538   24.5   5.6   2.5    .9   3.4   .1   1.34

e40    21-30          tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e403
4.0   Alanna Smith    Min   27  .578   16.4   7.7   4.8   1.8   2.5  2.1   1.54
4.0  Chennedy Carter  Chi   26  .535   25.2   5.0   4.3   1.5   2.4   .3   1.82
3.9   Kayla McBride   Min   32  .598   20.7   3.1   4.2   1.5   2.5   .1   1.26
3.9  Brittney Griner  Phx   29  .603   22.7   8.6   2.8    .7   2.2  1.9   1.86
3.9 Courtney Williams Min   26  .482   17.2   6.9   8.1   1.2   3.4   .5   1.50

3.7   Allisha Gray    Atl   33  .519   18.0   4.8   3.1   1.1   1.9   .8   1.11
3.7   Rhyne Howard    Atl   34  .511   20.4   5.1   3.7   1.7   1.8   .7   1.54
3.6   Kelsey Plum     LVa   35  .547   20.0   2.7   4.9    .8   2.6   .0   1.08
3.5   Ariel Atkins    Was   30  .529   18.2   4.8   4.0   2.1   3.0   .6   1.16
3.4  Kelsey Mitchell  Ind   33  .576   21.0   3.2   2.0    .9   1.8   .2   1.06

e40    31-40          tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e403
3.4  DiJ. Carrington  Con   30  .494   17.8   6.6   2.2   2.0   2.3   .6   1.19
3.2   Teaira McCowan  Dal   25  .581   15.6  12.7   2.0   1.3   2.9  1.2   1.30
3.0   Diana Taurasi   Phx   30  .554   18.9   5.3   4.1    .8   2.5   .3   1.14
2.9   NaLyssa Smith   Ind   25  .511   14.7  11.1   1.5   1.2   2.0  1.4   1.18
2.8   Natasha Cloud   Phx   34  .501   12.3   4.8   7.5   1.6   3.5   .7    .89

2.7   Natasha Howard  Dal   31  .501   18.8   8.9   3.2   1.6   3.7  1.1   1.35
2.6  Stefanie Dolson  Was   26  .644   15.0   7.7   4.0   1.0   2.5   .7   1.01
2.5  Kamilla Cardoso  Chi   28  .553   13.3  11.0   2.3    .8   2.0  1.8   1.11
2.3   Tyasha Harris   Con   29  .525   15.0   2.4   4.7   1.4   1.8   .3    .83
2.3  Bridget Carleton Min   29  .612   13.4   5.2   3.3   1.2   1.2   .4    .80

e40    41-50          tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e403
2.1   Marina Mabrey   Chi   33  .485   15.6   5.6   5.1   1.3   3.1   .3    .95
1.8   Rickea Jackson  LAS   28  .537   15.9   5.4   1.9    .8   2.5   .4    .65
1.8   Betnijah Laney  NYL   32  .562   15.7   5.4   4.5   1.2   2.9   .1    .87
1.8   Myisha H-Allen  Was   19  .556   14.8   9.7   5.0   1.2   2.6   .1   1.21
1.7  Aaliyah Edwards  Was   22  .515   12.1   9.7   2.3   1.3   2.2  1.2    .86

1.6   C Vandersloot   NYL   23  .503   11.9   4.5   8.8   1.1   3.0   .7    .97
1.6   Jordan Horston  Sea   23  .548   11.8   6.8   2.8   1.9   2.5  1.1    .73
1.6   Natasha Mack    Phx   15  .558    7.9  12.1   2.6   1.5   1.6  2.7   1.04
1.5   Tiffany Hayes   LVa   22  .597   15.6   4.9   3.3   1.1   1.5   .4    .90
1.5   Emily Engstler  Was   13  .603   15.5  10.4   3.2   1.9   1.4  1.3   1.58

e40    51-60          tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e403
1.5  Cheyenne Parker  Atl   20  .520   17.2   8.9   2.8   1.5   3.7   .6   1.06
1.4   Chelsea Gray    LVa   26  .489   11.3   4.4   7.5   1.7   3.3  1.1    .87
1.4   Jordin Canada   Atl   31  .508   12.9   4.3   7.8   1.9   2.7   .3   1.05
1.4 Sophie Cunningham Phx   28  .612   10.8   5.5   2.7   1.3   1.3   .3    .51
1.4   Satou Sabally   Dal   36  .560   17.5   6.9   4.4   1.5   2.4   .5   1.32

1.3   Leonie Fiebich  NYL   21  .596   12.2   5.5   3.3   1.3   1.7   .2    .62
1.3   Azura Stevens   LAS   24  .543   14.7  10.3   3.1   1.3   2.6  1.6   1.25
1.3   Shakira Austin  Was   20  .476   21.1  13.6   1.7   2.6   4.4  1.7   1.89
1.3   Brittney Sykes  Was   23  .476   19.1   6.5   5.1   1.6   2.8   .6   1.50
1.3   Marina Mabrey   Con   27  .553   20.7   4.8   4.6   1.6   2.0   .5   1.52

e40    61-70          tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e403
1.2   Aari McDonald   LAS   22  .522   13.5   3.5   6.0   1.4   3.0   .4    .72
1.1  Karlie Samuelson Was   25  .574   13.2   4.1   3.0   1.5   1.3   .1    .66
1.1   Dorka Juhász    Min   17  .526   11.2   8.4   2.4    .9   1.3   .8    .75
1.1   Odyssey Sims    Dal   34  .610   17.6   3.4   5.4   1.8   1.9   .5   1.31
1.1   Naz Hillmon     Atl   21  .594    9.5   8.1   2.4   1.0   1.4   .5    .55

1.1  Natisha Hiedeman Min   15  .470   11.8   3.5   5.8   1.8   2.4   .4    .69
1.0  Monique Billings Dal   25  .519   11.2  10.1   2.4    .9   3.0   .8    .60
1.0  Sh. W-Kimbrough  Was   22  .514   11.3   3.0   3.0   1.8   1.9   .7    .46
1.0   Cameron Brink   LAS   22  .489   11.9   9.8   2.8   1.7   3.8  3.8   1.02
.9   Aerial Powers    Atl   18  .458   16.3   6.4   2.8   1.8   2.0   .4   1.08

e40    71-80          tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e403
.9   Eliz. Williams   Chi   28  .511   13.5   9.6   2.1   2.2   2.2  2.2   1.26
.9   Lindsay Allen    Chi   23  .539   10.1   2.8   5.8   1.3   2.5   .2    .38
.9   Kalani Brown     Dal   13  .577   13.6   8.2   2.7    .4   3.0  1.6    .70
.8  Isabelle Harrison Chi   15  .463   13.4   7.5   1.5   1.4   2.5   .6    .67
.8   Nyara Sabally    NYL   13  .571   11.1  10.6   1.6   1.7   1.4  2.2   1.12

.8   Dana Evans       Chi   19  .501   12.9   2.1   4.4   1.3   2.5   .2    .43
.8   Rae Burrell      LAS   15  .539   12.9   4.3   2.6   1.6   1.9   .7    .59
.8   Sami Whitcomb    Sea   15  .467   11.6   3.9   3.5   1.7   2.0   .6    .53
.8   Kayla Thornton   NYL   20  .520   11.0   4.6   1.4   1.2    .9   .4    .38
.8   Maddy Siegrist   Dal   24  .555   13.0   5.0   1.3    .5    .9   .6    .51

e40    81-90          tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e403
.7   Julie Vanloo     Was   24  .470   11.5   2.8   7.1    .9   4.1   .0    .31
.7   Ce. Zandalasini  Min   12  .578   14.3   3.4   2.9    .9   2.1   .6    .53
.6   Rebecca Allen    Phx   25  .518   10.7   6.2   1.7   1.4   1.5  1.0    .52
.6   Temi Fagbenle    Ind   20  .537   10.6   9.0   1.7   1.2   1.9  1.3    .61
.6   Veronica Burton  Con   13  .516    9.1   3.9   5.8   1.3   1.4   .7    .60

.6   Li Yueru         LAS   15  .541   11.0   8.9   1.2    .7   2.1   .5    .41
.5   Odyssey Sims     LAS   25  .498   13.9   2.2   7.2   1.0   2.8   .1    .74
.5  Stephanie Talbot  LAS   17  .486    7.4   6.4   4.3   1.0   2.2   .9    .32
.5   Lexie Brown      LAS   24  .446   11.2   3.8   5.0   1.5   2.9   .2    .46
.5 Michaela Onyenwere Chi   16  .520   13.5   3.0   1.9   1.1   2.0   .7    .36

e40    91-100         tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e403
.5   Alysha Clark     LVa   25  .581    9.0   5.6   2.6   1.3   2.2   .4    .19
.4   Nia Coffey       Atl   14  .410    8.1   6.1   3.3    .8   2.3  1.8    .32
.4   Lexie Hull       Ind   19  .610   10.3   4.7   1.7   1.2   1.4   .6    .26
.4  Diamond DeShields Chi   14  .399   10.5   3.7   3.3   1.5   2.2   .6    .31
.4   Kia Nurse        LAS   21  .519   13.0   2.5   2.5    .8   2.2   .0    .19

.4   Kristy Wallace   Ind   17  .457    8.3   4.0   3.5   1.6   1.3   .5    .33
.4  Layshia Clarendon LAS   16  .526    9.3   4.4   5.7   1.5   2.6   .1    .37
.4   Rachel Banham    Con   13  .500   13.4   3.4   2.0   1.0   1.3   .6    .46
.3   Kennedy Burke    NYL   12  .472   10.4   4.4   2.3   1.5   2.1   .7    .29
.3   Olivia N-Ododa   Con   12  .526    9.8   7.9    .7   1.0   2.2  1.3    .27

e40    101-110        tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e403
.3  Mercedes Russell  Sea   15  .532    8.4   6.7   1.9   1.2   1.8   .4    .21
.3   Maya Caldwell    Atl   17  .488   10.7   4.0   2.4   1.4   2.1   .5    .27
.2   Jade Melbourne   Was   14  .517   12.2   3.7   3.7   1.5   4.1   .3    .19
.2  Victoria Vivians  Sea   13  .436    8.6   5.8   2.3   1.0   1.6   .5    .20
.2   Kiah Stokes      LVa   18  .400    2.5   9.7   1.5   1.0    .8  1.7    .13

.2   Megan Gustafson  LVa   10  .584   10.4   6.4    .8    .9   1.2   .2    .23
.2  Tiffany Mitchell  Con   16  .447   10.8   3.5   1.9    .9   1.3   .1    .19
.2  Katie L Samuelson Ind   19  .509    7.7   4.7   2.4    .6    .9   .4    .09
.1  Mikiah H Harrigan Phx   10  .513    8.6   4.5    .8   1.6   1.5  1.2    .16
.1   Rachel Banham    Chi   19  .418    9.6   3.4   2.6    .5    .7   .2    .17

e40    111-120        tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e403
.1   Erica Wheeler    Ind   14  .472    7.9   3.6   3.9   1.2   2.2   .3    .06
.1   Ivana Dojkić     NYL   10  .497   11.3   2.7   2.6    .8   1.9   .1    .12
.0   Zia Cooke        LAS    9  .385   10.7   2.6   2.3   1.2   2.3   .4    .08
-.0  Cr. Dangerfield  Atl   14  .387    6.9   2.6   4.3    .6   1.4   .5   -.01
-.1   Kate Martin     LVa   11  .471    7.2   4.5   2.5    .6   1.7   .6   -.06

-.1   Sug Sutton      Phx   15  .401    5.9   2.6   5.3   1.4   2.9   .1   -.15
-.2   Jacy Sheldon    Dal   23  .511    7.6   3.5   3.3    .8   2.1   .5   -.08
-.2   Haley Jones     Atl   19  .450    7.6   4.5   4.4    .6   3.3   .5   -.10
-.2   Sevgi Uzun      Dal   22  .430    6.7   3.1   4.5   1.6   3.2   .5   -.09

e40 is eWins projected to the full 40 games, as if everyone gets the same minutes the rest of the way. So an injured player -- Angel Reese -- will end up short of this projection.

[Mike G]

Side by side with NBA 'leaders' in this statistical niche: No one in the league with higher Usage% AND higher Turnover%

Code: Select all

WNBA           tm    Usg%    TO%      NBA           tm    Usg%   TO%
A'ja Wilson    LVa   32.2    5.3     Luka Doncic    Dal   36.0   12.8
Kahleah Copper Phx   32.1   13.3  Victor Wembanyama SAS   32.2   16.2
Brittney Sykes Was   28.5   15.1     Trae Young     Atl   30.5   16.5
Caitlin Clark  Ind   27.8   25.2    Scoot Henderson Por   26.5   19.3
Jade Melbourne Was   21.7   25.4     Vasilije Micic tot   18.8   19.7
Alyssa Thomas  Con   19.0   27.1     Kelly Olynyk   tot   17.5   20.9
Haley Jones    Atl   14.8   28.3     Draymond Green GSW   15.3   25.0

Clark has broken the WNBA record for TO in a season by about 50% over the previous mark.
A couple of NBA players last year got close to 20-20 here. CC's 25-25 may be unbeatable.

WNBA avg TO% is 14.8, NBA is 12.1
NBA first dropped under 14.8 TO% in 1987.

[Crow]

NBA, 63.2% assisted rate. WNBA, 68.5%. Style of play and / or scorekeeping.

[Mike G]

I suspect the NBA trend to shoot more 3's has something to do with the concurrent drop in TO%. It's less risky to pass the ball on the perimeter than to force it inside. And offensive fouls are also TO.
Assisted rates were lower in the '60s NBA when the pace was higher. Again suggesting a strategy to take the first good (or halfway good) shot you see, rather than try for the highest % shot (but risking TO).

27 years after inception, the W is at a TO% that the NBA had reached after 40-ish years; or 34 seasons into the (modern) shot clock era.
I see ESPN has given WNBA it's own tab alongside NFL, NBA, MLB, NCAAF, NHL, and Soccer; out from the "more sports" group.