Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

[Crow]

SGA is a superstar. JDub and Holmgren were modest stars in last regular season... and playoffs but mainly on defense in playoffs. This season JDub is still a modest star and entirely on defense by BPM splits. Holmgren is currently playing like a 2 way superstar. What will it look like in next playoffs?

[Crow]

Thunder rotation has 2 above league average on FT rate, 8 below. On at the rim shot frequency it is 6 above, 4 below but 3 of the 6 are well below at at the rim fg%, including Caruso currently at 27% but also Wallace at 48% and Mitchell at 50%.

On mid-range fg% SGA and Joe are generally good, while a few others currently have good marks at 1-2 distances.

JDub and Mitchell high on mid-frequency: league average is about 33%, Mitchell 42%, Williams 46%. Williams above average fg% from 16-23 feet but not the other distances, Mitchell the reverse.

[Crow]

Mitchell Joe Williams Wiggins Holmgren is on fire... in 25 minute test.

20 of 20 most used pairs are positive, all but 1 pushing +10 to over +30. 20 of 20 trios are positive, though a few only modestly. 17 of 20 most used quads are positive but the number not strong rises to 7. 15 of 20 5 mans are positive and 7 are not strong. Some improvements are probably possible but this is a very good set.

[Crow]

At factor level, it is now 3 super-elite, 1 slightly below average, 4 in bottom 10.

Opp FT/FGA started out amazing low but now has slightly back in bottom 10. Sluggtly worse in absolute terms than last season, slightly better by rank.

Offensive efficiency finally cracks above average but ts% remains slightly below.

Long way to April but offense probably has to improve further to go deep. Balanced elite is the best posture.

[Crow]

At least 7 possible first round opponents.

[Crow]

122 lineups used in 12 games. Just one in half the games. Only 7 in more than a quarter of the games, do 94% for 3 or less. 58% used in 1 game.

Exactly half positive is high.

Two of the least positive pairs are Dort - Joe and Wallace - Caruso. But there are a handful of other non strong pairs.

[Crow]

Thunder probably will have more difficult time in playoffs against strong defenses and good rebounding.

Rockets, Mavs, Warriors, Griz and Clippers have good defenses. Rockets, Warriors and Griz also have good offensive rebounding. Of these, only Rockets have good defensive rebounding.

Hope for other playoff opponents. Perhaps especially not Rockets in first round. Geiz or Clips more likely. Prefer Suns or Timberwolves? Hard to say that but maybe.

[Crow]

At factor level, it is still 3 super-elite, 1 slightly below average, 4 in bottom 20% (more than just bottom third). Pretty close to being 3-0-5.

This raises questions about the dominance of some things and lack of achievement and perhaps focus on many others, by players, Coach and Presti.

How often do teams win a title split between two tails?

Will have to look farther back. But in last 6 seasons, the champ on average have 3.7 factors in top third, 2.4 in middle and 1.9 in bottom third. 1 had 3 in bottom third but none 4 or 5.


In 7 seasons before that it was
3.3 factors in top third, 2.1 in middle and 2.5 in bottom third. 1 had 4 in bottom third, making it 1 in 13 seasons or about 8% of recent champs did it with that many weaknesses.


Compared to prior 7 seasons, the most recent 6 seasons has seen champs increase top tier strengths by an average of about 10%, middling factors by 15% and reduced weaknesses by 25%.

The overall trend is away from many weaknesses.

[Mike G]

At this point in the season, if we reduce the 4*2 Factors to just 4 -- being the ratios of team/opponent -- it looks like there are 2 that are important to point-differential and 2 that are not.
Ranked by "points" = TmPts/OppPts

Code: Select all

points   tm   eFG%    TO   FT/FGA   ORb
1.115   OKC   1.09   1.71    .79    .67
1.110   Cle   1.14   1.20   1.03    .79
1.092   Bos   1.05   1.20   1.36   1.01
1.087   GSW   1.12   1.12    .82   1.10
1.074   Hou   1.01   1.19    .87   1.38

1.069   Mem   1.06    .97   1.09   1.06
1.051   NYK   1.05    .98    .93   1.02
1.046   Orl    .99   1.08   1.09   1.24
1.035   Dal   1.05   1.07    .90    .90
1.028   Sac   1.03   1.10   1.10    .88

points   tm   eFG%    TO   FT/FGA   ORb
1.025   Min   1.06    .95   1.00    .89
1.008   LAL   1.00   1.10   1.31    .84
1.008   Mia    .97   1.24   1.15    .94
1.005   Den    .99   1.05   1.36   1.04
1.001   LAC    .99    .88   1.08   1.22

.991    SAS   1.01    .89   1.18    .94
.989    Det   1.00    .80    .91   1.19
.986    Phx   1.00    .92   1.16    .97
.981    Mil   1.03    .96    .99    .76
.973    Ind   1.02    .99    .84    .73

points   tm   eFG%    TO   FT/FGA   ORb
.972    Atl    .96   1.04   1.06   1.01
.971    Brk    .98    .98    .85    .99
.954    Cha    .94    .84    .73   1.37
.949    Tor    .97    .80    .74   1.16
.944    Chi    .99    .76   1.04    .95

.940    Por    .90   1.03    .94   1.13
.924    NOP    .90    .88   1.19   1.20
.920    Phl    .89   1.17    .91   1.04
.905    Uta    .92    .71   1.39   1.00
.882    Was    .92    .89    .79    .76

points         eFG%   TO   FT/FGA   ORb
correlations   .88    .67    .03   -.09

TO are really "TO forced" ratio = OppTO/TmTO
Is that OKC TO factor an alltime record? Last year it was 1.24

[Crow]

Interesting.

Correlations of the 8 factors separately would be worth knowing too to get a sense of how using the ratios change correlations.

Not that I am calling for or expecting it but correlations at game level might be different than season to date and season to date to full season.

[Crow]

Thunder 14th on at the rim frequency and 15th on atr fg%. Thought this was a philosophical priority. Not a practical achievement. Most playerd can't / don't want to. SGA trending down.

[Crow]

Thunder slipping on pace. Now 8th highest and not much more than 1 possession higher than average.

[Crow]

At factor level, the Thunder took a massive step between the end of the Donovan era and the start of the Daigneault era. It took 4 years to slowly get back to the same mix of tiers.

And by this simple perspective, the Thunder added a bottom tier factor this season beyond last season.

[Crow]

188 lineups used in 17 games. Almost all the most used lineups and pair are positive. One lineup over 3 minutes per game, then 6 from 1 to 2.5 per game. Very little definition to the lineup rotation.

[Mike G]

Once Alex Caruso returns, the Thunder's top 8 players will be listed as SG.
SG Williams plays C, SG's Shai and Wiggins play F, SG Joe is now PG
A summary of career minutes% before this season, and now. Middle two columns are 1 thru 5 position averages then and now.

Code: Select all

OKC SG   min   PG   SG   SF   PF   C   to24   2425   PG   SG   SF   PF   C
Shai     618   56   34   10    0   0   1.54   3.21    0   12   57   29   2
JWill    569    4   36   17   41   1   2.96   4.24    0    0    5   66  29
Dort     533    8   36   44   12   0   2.60   2.29    9   55   34    2   0
Wallace  459   29   36   34    1   0   2.07   1.63   45   50    6    0   0
Wiggins  377    7   44   41    8   0   2.50   3.53    0    4   47   46   4
Joe      363   34   60    6    0   0   1.72   1.01   99    1    0    0   0
Mitchell 294    rookie, no previous     ...   2.09   18   56   25    1   0
Caruso   256   52   46    2    0   0   1.50   1.35   67   34    0    0   0
all 8   3469   24   37   21   10   0   2.00   2.59   23   25   24   21   6

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _pbp_stats