2025 Rookies

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Sat Jan 11, 2025 9:26 pm

Season 45% complete; all with 200+ minutes:

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
4.2   Yves Missi    NOP  1039  .574   10.3  11.0   1.5    .7   1.6  2.0   .91
3.4   Alex Sarr     Was   868  .484   11.3   8.2   2.3    .8   2.1  2.1   .82
3.2   Zach Edey     Mem   511  .625   16.7  12.5   1.3   1.1   2.7  1.9  1.41
2.7   Jaylen Wells  Mem   979  .562   14.5   4.9   2.0    .7   1.7   .2   .61
2.6   Jared McCain  Phl   592  .583   19.2   3.5   3.1    .9   2.2   .0   .92

2.3 Donovan Clingan Por   467  .570   10.3  13.1   1.0   1.0   2.5  3.3  1.09
2.3  Dalton Knecht  LAL   790  .587   14.0   5.3   1.3    .7    .9   .1   .62
2.3  Stephon Castle SAS   886  .467   12.5   3.3   4.5   1.2   2.6   .4   .56
2.1   Tr Da Silva   Orl   948  .516   11.3   6.4   2.2    .5   1.3   .3   .52
2.0   Za Risacher   Atl   909  .489   12.0   5.2   1.4   1.1   1.8   .8   .49

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.8  Jonathan Mogbo Tor   573  .520    8.4   9.1   2.6   1.6   1.9  1.0   .71
1.7  Ajay Mitchell  OKC   561  .597   14.0   3.8   3.0   1.3   1.7   .2   .67
1.6 Kyle Filipowski Uta   455  .559    9.7   9.8   2.9   1.1   2.2   .3   .72
1.5   Ryan Dunn     Phx   625  .529   10.2   5.6   1.3    .9    .9  1.3   .52
1.5   Kel'el Ware   Mia   248  .654   16.9   8.0   1.2   1.3   1.6  2.3  1.29

1.4   Ron Holland   Det   606  .552   12.2   6.5   1.3   1.2   2.0   .3   .51
1.3  Ca Carrington  Was  1080  .521    8.3   4.6   3.6    .9   2.0   .3   .26
1.1  Jamison Battle Tor   420  .641   13.5   4.8   1.8    .3   1.0   .3   .57
.9   Matas Buzelis  Chi   462  .483    9.4   6.3   1.0    .7   1.5  2.2   .44
.9  Tidjane Salaün  Cha   591  .435    6.8   8.0   1.7   1.1   1.5   .4   .31

e82   per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.9   Oso Ighodaro   Phx   465  .575    7.3   8.0   1.8    .9   1.3   .7   .39
.7  Ja'Kobe Walter  Tor   451  .486   10.3   4.6   2.0   1.0   1.6   .5   .33
.6  Kyshawn George  Was   792  .437    6.6   5.1   2.2   1.0   1.7   .9   .15
.5   Jamal Shead    Tor   539  .496    8.4   2.4   5.7   1.4   3.2   .3   .23
.5   Pelle Larsson  Mia   308  .573   10.1   3.8   2.6   1.2   1.2   .1   .36

.4   Reed Sheppard  Hou   349  .413    7.5   3.7   2.9   1.5   1.7  1.0   .25
.2  Keaton Wallace  Atl   248  .514    7.9   3.0   3.2   1.7   2.3   .8   .19
.2   Dillon Jones   OKC   210  .396    6.5   6.7   2.4    .6   1.4   .3   .19
.1   Johnny Furphy  Ind   212  .513    7.5   4.5   1.1   1.3   1.4   .9   .13
-.3  Isaiah Collier Uta   526  .364    3.8   4.7   6.0   1.3   4.4   .3  -.11
-.4  Cody Williams  Uta   417  .400    4.2   4.1   1.7    .9   1.4   .7  -.18

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... _2025.html

Rookies projecting to total ~49 eWins

And here with some other stats:

Code: Select all

rookies     tm   Min   e484   PER   ws/48   BPM
Carrington Was  1080   .26    8.5   .001   -4.8
Missi      NOP  1039   .91   16.3   .104   -2.8
Wells      Mem   979   .61   11.0   .092   -2.0
Da Silva   Orl   948   .52    9.8   .072   -2.7
Risacher   Atl   909   .49    9.8   .005   -5.6

Castle     SAS   886   .56    9.8   .000   -5.1
Sarr       Was   868   .82   12.6   .005   -3.4
George     Was   792   .15    6.6  -.035   -6.1
Knecht     LAL   790   .62   12.5   .072   -2.6
Dunn       Phx   625   .52   10.3   .044   -3.4

rookies     tm   Min   e484   PER   ws/48   BPM
Holland    Det   606   .51   10.4   .046   -4.4
McCain     Phl   592   .92   15.7   .083    0.5
Salaün     Cha   591   .31    7.6   .013   -4.5
Mogbo      Tor   573   .71   13.5   .075   -1.4
Mitchell   OKC   561   .67   12.6   .137   -1.4

Shead      Tor   539   .23    8.8  -.015   -5.2
Collier    Uta   526  -.11    3.4  -.109   -8.9
Edey       Mem   511  1.41   18.0   .163   -0.3
Clingan    Por   467  1.09   16.8   .102   -1.9
Ighodaro   Phx   465   .39   10.5   .072   -3.0

rookies     tm   Min   e484   PER   ws/48   BPM
Buzelis    Chi   462   .44    9.4   .009   -5.3
Filipowski Uta   455   .72   12.0   .063   -2.0
Walter     Tor   451   .33    8.9  -.004   -5.3
Battle     Tor   420   .57   13.3   .093    0.1
Williams   Uta   417  -.18    3.9  -.036   -6.3

Sheppard   Hou   349   .25    7.2   .028   -3.0
Larsson    Mia   308   .36   10.1   .095   -3.8
Ware       Mia   248  1.29   19.3   .159    1.1
Wallace    Atl   248   .19    8.6   .009   -3.6
Furphy     Ind   212   .13    8.6   .031   -3.3
Jones      OKC   210   .19    6.3   .034   -6.2

Code: Select all

NBA      e484    PER   ws/48   BPM
average  1.00   15.0   .100    0.0
"zero"    .00    5.75  .000   -5.25

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Sun Jan 12, 2025 9:47 pm

K Ware the new rookie leader by BPM, among those with significant minutes. Edey still the real #1 by Darko.

Castle fades to 32nd in draft class by BPM. 58th among all rookies on Darko projection.

Sarr 24th on BPM, 73rd on Darko.

So methods matter and don't always agree.

Missi, 19th on BPM, 10th on Darko.

Risacher 37th on BPM, 55th on Darko.

Carrington 30th on BPM, 72nd on Darko.

Mogbo similarly ranked across metrics.

Degree and method of defensive inclusion is a significant factor in rating differences.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Mon Jan 13, 2025 12:36 am

Crow wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 9:47 pm Sarr 24th on BPM, 73rd on Darko.
Carrington 30th on BPM, 72nd on Darko.

So you are including ratings for players with fewer than 10 minutes played.
Does Darko assume a guy who never plays is probably an average NBA player?

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Mon Jan 13, 2025 3:29 am

If I am looking at very top or just one guy, I will usually take out the small minute guys. If I am looking at full class, I probably won't, simply to save a little time. The exact numbers are affected but the general impression is about the same.

Darko assumes players are as good as their draft rank suggests (or below that if undrafted) and then gradually changes as actual come in. A low minute guy will be near his draft estimate until he has enough minutes and performance to change that much.

There are 13 rookies who have played but under 100 minutes. Take the appropriate number of them out and the ranks will change modestly.

But staying at low minutes is a bad sign and will tend over time to hurt the Darko rating.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Mon Jan 13, 2025 4:12 pm

Every year that I've been doing this, I notice the projected (to full season) rookie eWins total rises during the season. They often get better during their first year, and always (as a group) get more minutes.
At least since the pandemic, I've been consistent about noting the % of the season that's completed at the time of my reports. Looking back, there's always been a consistent rise in rookie productions during the season.

So I've gone back thru the archives and entered these, % of season and 'projections' converted to % of ultimate season eWins.
And here are 4 years of reports summarized; along with an 'expected' ultimate season eWins divisor, from this formula:
expected = projected/(%sea*.43 + .57)

Code: Select all

yr   %sea   proj   %eW   form
21    .18    47    .65    .65
21    .31    51    .71    .71
21    .50    55    .76    .79
21    .63    58    .81    .84
21   1.00    72   1.00   1.00

yr   %sea   proj   %eW   form
22    .10    51    .61    .62
22    .15    50    .60    .64
22    .22    51    .61    .67
22    .31    54    .66    .71
22    .44    63    .76    .76
22    .60    68    .82    .83
22    .82    76    .92    .92
22   1.00    83   1.00   1.00

yr   %sea   proj   %eW   form
23    .13    41    .66    .63
23    .22    45    .72    .67
23    .29    46    .74    .70
23    .38    49    .78    .73
23    .48    50    .80    .78
23    .59    51    .82    .83
23    .67    53    .85    .86
23    .76    56    .90    .90
23    .85    57    .91    .94
23    .93    59    .95    .97
23   1.00    62   1.00   1.00

yr   %sea   proj   %eW   form
24    .24    53    .70    .68
24    .31    56    .74    .71
24    .38    59    .78    .73
24    .44    59    .77    .76
24    .50    60    .79    .79
24    .58    61    .81    .82
24    .64    63    .84    .85
24    .76    67    .89    .90
24    .87    70    .93    .94
24   1.00    75.5 1.00   1.00

Late-covid '20-21 was only 72 games, but %season formula still reasonably fits it.

So this season has been an exception to these steady increases in projection. Zach Edey was leading rookies in eWins, but he missed games. Jared McCain was projecting to 5.2 but is stuck at 1.1
The formula predicts that the current 49 projected eWins will turn out to be 64. In late November, it looked like it would be 79.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Wed Feb 19, 2025 9:35 pm

AllStar break, season at 66%, and rookies total 54 eWins by season's end.
minimum 450 minutes:

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
3.8   Zach Edey     Mem  .618   15.5  13.4   1.3   1.1   2.4  2.0  1.45
3.3   Yves Missi    NOP  .561    9.2  10.3   1.4    .6   1.6  1.9   .75
3.0  Stephon Castle SAS  .507   14.6   3.7   4.1   1.2   2.7   .4   .70
2.9   Kel'el Ware   Mia  .596   15.1  10.3   1.2   1.0   1.4  1.8  1.25
2.9   Alex Sarr     Was  .474   10.7   8.4   2.3    .9   1.9  2.1   .82

2.6   Jaylen Wells  Mem  .574   14.0   4.5   1.9    .8   1.3   .2   .59
2.5   Do. Clingan   Por  .580   10.4  14.3   1.3   1.0   2.4  3.3  1.21
2.1  Dalton Knecht  LAL  .593   14.7   5.1   1.2    .6    .8   .1   .65
2.1   Za. Risacher  Atl  .520   13.3   5.1   1.5   1.1   1.6   .7   .60
2.0   Tr. Da Silva  Orl  .531   10.6   6.1   2.1    .8   1.3   .4   .50

e82    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.9   K Filipowski  Uta  .579   10.5   9.4   2.7   1.0   1.9   .3   .74
1.6  Jared McCain   Phl  .583   18.5   3.4   3.0    .9   2.2   .0   .87
1.5  Jonathan Mogbo Tor  .523    8.5   8.3   2.7   1.5   1.7  1.0   .67
1.5   Ryan Dunn     Phx  .522   10.2   6.1   1.4    .8    .8  1.0   .51
1.4   C Carrington  Was  .525    8.4   4.5   3.7    .9   1.9   .2   .28

1.4  Matas Buzelis  Chi  .551   11.7   5.9   1.0    .6   1.4  1.9   .55
1.3   Ron Holland   Det  .523   11.1   6.1   1.5   1.5   1.9   .3   .48
1.2  Ajay Mitchell  OKC  .597   13.7   3.8   3.0   1.4   1.7   .2   .67
1.1  Isaiah Collier Uta  .467    7.3   4.7   7.0   1.3   4.3   .3   .32
1.0  Kyshawn George Was  .494    7.9   5.0   2.2   1.2   1.8   .8   .25

e82   per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.9  Jamison Battle  Tor  .629   13.5   4.8   1.7    .4    .8   .3   .58
.8  Ja'Kobe Walter  Tor  .500   10.5   4.5   2.0   1.3   1.5   .3   .39
.8  Justin Edwards  Phl  .575   10.5   4.8   1.8   1.3   1.2   .4   .42
.7  Tidjane Salaün  Cha  .436    6.9   7.6   1.7   1.1   1.5   .4   .30
.7   Jamal Shead    Tor  .515    9.3   2.3   5.4   1.1   2.9   .2   .26

.6   Oso Ighodaro   Phx  .567    7.0   7.1   1.8   1.0   1.3   .8   .33
.4   Reed Sheppard  Hou  .408    7.2   4.3   2.6   1.6   1.6  1.0   .28
.4   Pelle Larsson  Mia  .555    9.1   3.8   2.0   1.1   1.0   .3   .25
-.4  Cody Williams  Uta  .400    4.1   3.6   1.8   1.0   1.5   .6  -.24

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Thu Feb 20, 2025 1:18 am

Edey and Ware BPM neutral. Sarr and Missi -3, Castle almost -4.

Understand that Castle's boxscore got better recently but it still averages into a -4 so far.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:02 pm

BPM seems to dock centers a couple of points, just so that this position doesn't look better than others.
I think maybe they don't get commensurate minutes because they aren't as versatile. A F may swing to C for a small-ball situation, but there aren't many situations for a C to play F.

But while they are on the floor, they tend to be doing important stuff. Does that make sense?
SF and SG -- aka 'wings' -- are not similarly benched by any opponent maneuvers, in the modern game. So they get minutes and have to share more of the production stats.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Thu Mar 06, 2025 5:31 pm

At 75% of the season, rookies total 56 projected eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
4.0   Zach Edey      Mem  .624   15.3  13.9   1.2   1.0   2.4  2.1  1.44
3.4   Yves Missi     NOP  .553    9.5  10.6   1.4    .7   1.6  1.9   .78
3.2  Stephon Castle  SAS  .504   14.8   4.1   4.0   1.2   2.7   .3   .74
3.1   Alex Sarr      Was  .478   11.5   8.5   2.4   1.0   1.9  2.1   .91
3.1   Kel'el Ware    Mia  .604   14.7  10.8   1.3   1.0   1.5  1.8  1.23

2.8  Donovan Clingan Por  .577   10.5  14.2   1.4   1.0   2.4  3.2  1.22
2.7   Jaylen Wells   Mem  .576   13.9   4.6   1.9    .8   1.3   .1   .60
2.4  Kyle Filipowski Uta  .598   12.3   9.7   2.8   1.0   2.3   .3   .88
2.4   Za. Risacher   Atl  .526   13.5   5.4   1.5   1.1   1.8   .7   .64
2.1   Dalton Knecht  LAL  .591   14.6   5.0   1.2    .7    .8   .1   .65

e82    11-20          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.9 Tristan Da Silva Orl  .536   10.7   6.0   2.2    .8   1.3   .4   .50
1.8  Bub Carrington  Was  .519    8.6   4.8   3.9    .9   1.9   .3   .36
1.5  Jonathan Mogbo  Tor  .510    8.0   8.0   2.4   1.6   1.7  1.0   .61
1.5   Matas Buzelis  Chi  .538   11.6   5.9   1.2    .5   1.4  1.7   .54
1.4   Jared McCain   Phl  .583   18.3   3.4   3.0    .9   2.2   .0   .84

1.4  Isaiah Collier  Uta  .464    7.7   4.6   7.1   1.3   4.2   .3   .38
1.3   Quinten Post   GSW  .613   17.9   8.6   2.8    .8   1.9   .7  1.31
1.3  Kyshawn George  Was  .485    8.0   5.3   2.5   1.3   2.0   .9   .32
1.3   Ron Holland    Det  .538   11.2   5.7   1.5   1.4   1.7   .3   .49
1.2   Ryan Dunn      Phx  .509    9.6   6.2   1.3    .7    .9  1.1   .46

e82    21-30          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.9   Ajay Mitchell   OKC  .597   13.0   3.7   2.9   1.3   1.7   .2   .61
.9   Ja'Kobe Walter  Tor  .501   10.3   4.9   1.7   1.3   1.6   .3   .37
.7   Jamison Battle  Tor  .629   13.2   4.7   1.7    .4    .8   .3   .55
.7   Rob Dillingham  Min  .513   12.4   3.1   5.5   1.3   3.2   .1   .57
.7   Justin Edwards  Phl  .571   10.3   4.6   1.6   1.2   1.3   .4   .38

.7   Jamal Shead     Tor  .511    9.0   2.3   5.4   1.1   3.0   .2   .25
.6   Adem Bona       Phl  .681    8.7   8.5    .7    .6   2.0  2.2   .47
.6   Karlo Matković  NOP  .601    9.2   8.1   1.4    .8   2.0  2.1   .56
.5   Oso Ighodaro    Phx  .567    6.7   7.0   1.8    .9   1.2   .8   .31
.5   Tidjane Salaün  Cha  .430    6.4   7.4   1.5    .9   1.6   .5   .20

e82    31-36          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.5   Jaylon Tyson    Cle  .555    9.7   6.6   2.7    .8   1.7   .2   .48
.5   Reed Sheppard   Hou  .432    8.0   4.0   2.7   1.7   1.7   .9   .33
.4   KJ Simpson      Cha  .422    8.3   4.8   3.6   1.4   2.3   .3   .33
.4   Pelle Larsson   Mia  .558    9.3   3.6   2.1   1.0    .9   .3   .29
.4   Keaton Wallace  Atl  .543    9.1   2.8   3.5   1.6   2.2   .6   .30
-.3  Cody Williams   Uta  .430    5.1   3.8   1.8    .9   1.6   .5  -.14

36 with >360 minutes

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Thu Mar 06, 2025 8:04 pm

6 of top 8 here are centers.

5 of top 7 by Darko are centers, but includes Ighodaro and Post instead of Missi and Sarr. By Darko, Missi 54th, Sarr 77th .

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Sun Mar 09, 2025 4:27 pm

Piecing together the player updates, you may see how each major rookie has evolved over the season.
It's "% of season" if you ignore the decimal. Per 36 minute rates.

Code: Select all

Mem   Zach Edey                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco    Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk   e484   e82
.06   .571   15.9   10.7    .6   1.2   1.7    .8   1.12   3.5
.11   .649   20.7   12.4    .9   1.0   2.6   1.7   1.65   5.4
.17   .642   19.7   12.0   1.1   1.6   2.9   1.8   1.64   5.6
.23   .642   19.8   12.1   1.1   1.6   2.9   1.8   1.64   4.1
.29   .642   19.8   11.9   1.1   1.5   2.9   1.8   1.61   3.1
.38   .634   17.8   12.6   1.4   1.3   2.6   1.9   1.60   3.7
.45   .625   16.7   12.5   1.3   1.1   2.7   1.9   1.41   3.2
.66   .618   15.5   13.4   1.3   1.1   2.4   2.0   1.45   3.8
.75   .624   15.3   13.9   1.2   1.0   2.4   2.1   1.44   4.0
                           
NOP   Yves Missi                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco    Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
.06   .457    7.6    9.7   2.1   .9   1.1   2.5   .76   2.8
.11   .487    6.8    9.2   1.9   .8   1.0   2.4   .64   2.4
.17   .561    9.1   10.6   1.9   .9   1.7   1.7   .82   3.3
.23   .558    9.8   10.9   1.8  1.0   1.7   1.8   .90   3.5
.29   .563   11.1   11.6   1.4   .9   1.6   1.8  1.01   4.1
.38   .567   10.4   11.3   1.4   .8   1.6   1.7   .94   4.1
.45   .574   10.3   11.0   1.5   .7   1.6   2.0   .91   4.2
.66   .561    9.2   10.3   1.4   .6   1.6   1.9   .75   3.3
.75   .553    9.5   10.6   1.4   .7   1.6   1.9   .78   3.4
                           
SAS   Stephon Castle                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
.06   .348    7.0   3.9   3.7   1.1   2.3   .6   .11    .4
.11   .442   10.4   3.9   3.3   1.3   1.5   .5   .45   1.7
.17   .486   12.1   3.7   3.9   1.3   1.9   .5   .60   2.5
.23   .488   13.1   3.7   4.5   1.1   2.3   .6   .67   3.0
.29   .483   12.8   3.4   4.2   1.2   2.5   .5   .58   2.7
.38   .471   12.5   3.5   4.3   1.2   2.5   .5   .57   2.4
.45   .467   12.5   3.3   4.5   1.2   2.6   .4   .56   2.3
.66   .507   14.6   3.7   4.1   1.2   2.7   .4   .70   3.0
.75   .504   14.8   4.1   4.0   1.2   2.7   .3   .74   3.2
                           
Was   Alex Sarr                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO    Blk  e484   e82
.06   .471   10.6   8.8   1.7    .8    .9   4.1  1.04   4.4
.11   .435    9.3   8.8   2.4    .8   1.7   3.7   .87   3.7
.17   .426    9.1   7.4   2.4   1.0   1.7   2.9   .73   3.2
.23   .455   10.3   8.3   2.3   1.0   1.9   2.6   .83   3.7
.29   .457    9.7   7.9   2.0   1.0   1.9   2.5   .70   2.9
.38   .482   11.0   7.6   2.2    .9   2.0   2.4   .80   3.4
.45   .484   11.3   8.2   2.3    .8   2.1   2.1   .82   3.4
.66   .474   10.7   8.4   2.3    .9   1.9   2.1   .82   2.9
.75   .478   11.5   8.5   2.4   1.0   1.9   2.1   .91   3.1
                           
Mia   Kel'el Ware                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco    Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk   e484   e82
.45   .654   16.9    8.0   1.2   1.3   1.6   2.3   1.29   1.5
.66   .596   15.1   10.3   1.2   1.0   1.4   1.8   1.25   2.9
.75   .604   14.7   10.8   1.3   1.0   1.5   1.8   1.23   3.1
                           
Por   Donovan Clingan                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco    Reb   Ast   Stl   TO    Blk   e484   e82
.06   .577    9.7   13.5    .0    .7   1.8   4.0   1.00   2.2
.11   .541    8.0   11.6    .4    .7   1.9   4.1    .76   1.8
.17   .597   10.7   11.8    .4    .9   2.0   4.5   1.11   3.1
.23   .569   10.4   13.4    .5   1.1   2.1   4.5   1.26   3.3
.29   .569   10.2   13.7    .5   1.2   2.1   4.5   1.26   2.6
.38   .571   10.2   13.4    .8   1.1   2.5   3.6   1.15   2.5
.45   .570   10.3   13.1   1.0   1.0   2.5   3.3   1.09   2.3
.66   .580   10.4   14.3   1.3   1.0   2.4   3.3   1.21   2.5
.75   .577   10.5   14.2   1.4   1.0   2.4   3.2   1.22   2.8
                           
Mem   Jaylen Wells                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e484  e82
.06   .507   12.1   4.8   1.9   .4   1.4   .2   .38   1.6
.11   .517   12.4   4.5   1.9   .6   1.5   .4   .41   1.8
.17   .539   14.2   4.2   1.8   .4   1.4   .4   .52   2.3
.23   .566   15.6   4.3   2.1   .6   1.7   .4   .66   2.9
.29   .575   15.3   4.7   2.0   .6   1.9   .3   .62   2.6
.38   .583   15.3   4.4   2.0   .7   1.7   .2   .65   2.7
.45   .562   14.5   4.9   2.0   .7   1.7   .2   .61   2.7
.66   .574   14.0   4.5   1.9   .8   1.3   .2   .59   2.6
.75   .576   13.9   4.6   1.9   .8   1.3   .1   .60   2.7
                           
Atl   Zaccharie Risacher                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk  e484   e82
.06   .390    8.3   4.5   1.1   1.3   1.8   1.2   .12    .5
.11   .466   11.2   4.7   1.4   1.1   1.7   1.3   .40   1.8
.17   .471   12.0   5.2   1.5   1.3   1.8   1.1   .50   2.3
.23   .484   12.3   5.4   1.6   1.2   1.7   1.0   .57   2.4
.29   .493   12.9   5.3   1.4   1.2   1.7   1.1   .59   2.4
.38   .479   12.1   5.0   1.4   1.1   1.8    .9   .48   1.9
.45   .489   12.0   5.2   1.4   1.1   1.8    .8   .49   2.0
.66   .520   13.3   5.1   1.5   1.1   1.6    .7   .60   2.1
.75   .526   13.5   5.4   1.5   1.1   1.8    .7   .64   2.4
                           
Uta   Kyle Filipowski                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
.06   .565   10.9   8.8   2.0    .5   2.8   .0   .42    .9
.11   .569   10.2   8.4   3.2    .6   2.3   .0   .54   1.2
.17   .597   13.0   8.4   3.0    .9   1.7   .3   .91   2.7
.23   .564   11.3   9.1   3.2   1.1   1.9   .3   .84   2.1
.29   .559   11.2   8.9   3.1   1.0   1.9   .3   .79   1.6
.38   .570   10.2   9.2   2.9   1.0   2.0   .2   .70   1.4
.45   .559    9.7   9.8   2.9   1.1   2.2   .3   .72   1.6
.66   .579   10.5   9.4   2.7   1.0   1.9   .3   .74   1.9
.75   .598   12.3   9.7   2.8   1.0   2.3   .3   .88   2.4
                           
LAL   Dalton Knecht                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO  Blk  e484   e82
.06   .590   13.0   3.2   1.8   .7  1.3   .0   .35   1.0
.11   .500    9.2   3.8   1.6   .7  1.1   .0   .08    .2
.17   .624   14.1   4.1   1.7   .8   .8   .0   .59   2.1
.23   .655   16.0   4.9   1.3   .8   .6   .0   .79   3.1
.29   .597   14.1   5.3   1.4   .8   .8   .1   .66   2.7
.38   .596   14.2   5.5   1.4   .7   .9   .1   .68   2.6
.45   .587   14.0   5.3   1.3   .7   .9   .1   .62   2.3
.66   .593   14.7   5.1   1.2   .6   .8   .1   .65   2.1
.75   .591   14.6   5.0   1.2   .7   .8   .1   .65   2.1
                           
Orl   Tristan DaSilva                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484  e82
.11   .495    9.5   4.2   2.3   .0    .8   .3   .21    .5
.17   .462    8.4   6.0   2.9   .4    .7   .4   .40   1.2
.23   .502    9.9   6.0   2.4   .5    .6   .3   .47   1.6
.29   .510   10.1   6.2   2.1   .6    .8   .3   .47   1.6
.38   .523   11.1   5.5   1.9   .6   1.4   .3   .41   1.5
.45   .516   11.3   6.4   2.2   .5   1.3   .3   .52   2.1
.66   .531   10.6   6.1   2.1   .8   1.3   .4   .50   2.0
.75   .536   10.7   6.0   2.2   .8   1.3   .4   .50   1.9
                           
Was   Bub Carrington                        
%Sea  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
.06   .541   9.8   4.4   4.2   1.2   1.8   .5   .49   2.4
.11   .537  10.0   5.6   4.9   1.4   2.1   .3   .64   3.2
.17   .553   9.8   4.9   4.4   1.4   2.2   .4   .50   2.6
.23   .520   8.8   4.7   4.3   1.4   2.5   .4   .37   1.8
.29   .496   8.4   4.7   3.8   1.2   2.5   .3   .25   1.2
.38   .505   8.2   4.7   3.5    .9   2.3   .3   .19   1.0
.45   .521   8.3   4.6   3.6    .9   2.0   .3   .26   1.3
.66   .525   8.4   4.5   3.7    .9   1.9   .2   .28   1.4
.75   .519   8.6   4.8   3.9    .9   1.9   .3   .36   1.8
                           
Chi   Matas Buzelis                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO    Blk  e484   e82
.17   .446    7.6   6.9    .6   1.5   2.4   1.9   .23    .3
.23   .480    9.0   6.3    .5   1.2   2.3   1.9   .24    .5
.29   .525   11.0   6.6    .8    .9   1.9   1.9   .48   1.0
.38   .487    9.8   6.3   1.1    .6   1.5   2.0   .46   1.0
.45   .483    9.4   6.3   1.0    .7   1.5   2.2   .44    .9
.66   .551   11.7   5.9   1.0    .6   1.4   1.9   .55   1.4
.75   .538   11.6   5.9   1.2    .5   1.4   1.7   .54   1.5
                           
Tor   Jonathan Mogbo                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk  e484   e82
.23   .548    9.6   9.4   2.4   1.7   1.8    .9   .80   2.1
.29   .542   10.1   9.6   2.8   1.8   1.9    .9   .90   2.5
.38   .512    8.4   9.0   2.7   1.7   1.7   1.0   .74   2.2
.45   .520    8.4   9.1   2.6   1.6   1.9   1.0   .71   1.8
.66   .523    8.5   8.3   2.7   1.5   1.7   1.0   .67   1.5
.75   .510    8.0   8.0   2.4   1.6   1.7   1.0   .61   1.5
                           
Uta   Isaiah Collier                        
%Sea  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484   e82
.17   .542   6.9   4.5   4.2   1.9   3.5   .6    .13    .2
.23   .373   4.5   3.5   5.0   1.7   4.5   .3   -.25   -.5
.29   .350   4.3   3.5   5.4   1.8   4.8   .3   -.27   -.6
.38   .340   3.5   4.2   5.3   1.4   4.9   .4   -.33   -.7
.45   .364   3.8   4.7   6.0   1.3   4.4   .3   -.11   -.3
.66   .467   7.3   4.7   7.0   1.3   4.3   .3    .32   1.1
.75   .464   7.7   4.6   7.1   1.3   4.2   .3    .38   1.4
                           
Phl   Jared McCain                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484   e82
.06   .534   17.5   6.3   2.6    .6   1.5   .0   1.00   2.2
.11   .533   15.9   4.8   2.8   1.0   1.5   .0    .85   2.0
.17   .609   23.2   3.7   3.6    .9   1.6   .0   1.42   5.2
.23   .582   21.1   3.6   3.3    .9   1.9   .0   1.15   4.9
.29   .586   20.4   3.7   3.1   1.0   2.2   .0   1.06   4.6
.38   .583   19.2   3.5   3.1    .9   2.2   .0    .94   3.3
.45   .583   19.2   3.5   3.1    .9   2.2   .0    .92   2.6
.66   .583   18.5   3.4   3.0    .9   2.2   .0    .87   1.6
.75   .583   18.3   3.4   3.0    .9   2.2   .0    .84   1.4
                           
Det   Ron Holland                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
.06   .522   10.5   6.4   1.1   1.4   1.7   .3   .39    .9
.11   .545   12.1   6.6    .7   1.5   1.4   .2   .55   1.3
.17   .471    9.9   6.9    .9   1.7   1.4   .3   .45   1.2
.23   .480   10.4   6.6    .8   1.4   1.7   .3   .37   1.0
.29   .493    9.9   6.9   1.4   1.3   2.3   .4   .34    .9
.38   .540   11.4   6.7   1.1   1.2   1.9   .3   .46   1.2
.45   .552   12.2   6.5   1.3   1.2   2.0   .3   .51   1.4
.66   .523   11.1   6.1   1.5   1.5   1.9   .3   .48   1.3
.75   .538   11.2   5.7   1.5   1.4   1.7   .3   .49   1.3
                           
Was   Kyshawn George                        
%Sea  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO    Blk  e484   e82
.06   .342   4.6   5.1   2.5   1.3   1.4   2.2   .17    .7
.11   .450   7.6   5.0   2.6   1.1   1.2   1.8   .35   1.7
.17   .459   7.5   5.0   2.8   1.0   1.1   1.2   .33   1.6
.23   .451   7.2   5.0   2.6    .9   1.2    .9   .24   1.1
.29   .441   6.8   5.2   2.7    .9   1.4    .9   .21    .8
.38   .449   7.0   5.0   2.5    .9   1.4   1.0   .21    .8
.45   .437   6.6   5.1   2.2   1.0   1.7    .9   .15    .6
.66   .494   7.9   5.0   2.2   1.2   1.8    .8   .25   1.0
.75   .485   8.0   5.3   2.5   1.3   2.0    .9   .32   1.3
                           
GSW   Quinten Post                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO  Blk   e484   e82
.75   .613   17.9   8.6   2.8   .8   1.9   .7   1.31   1.3
                           
Phx   Ryan Dunn                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO    Blk  e484   e82
.06   .603   14.3   4.0   1.4    .9    .6    .6   .62   1.9
.11   .600   13.6   4.7   1.6    .8    .8    .5   .60   1.5
.17   .516   10.6   5.0   1.1    .9   1.1    .9   .35   1.0
.23   .505   10.0   5.1   1.3   1.0    .9    .9   .38   1.1
.29   .500    9.6   5.4   1.3   1.0   1.0   1.0   .37    .9
.38   .519    9.9   5.2   1.3   1.0   1.0   1.3   .44   1.2
.45   .529   10.2   5.6   1.3    .9    .9   1.3   .52   1.5
.66   .522   10.2   6.1   1.4    .8    .8   1.0   .51   1.5
.75   .509    9.6   6.2   1.3    .7    .9   1.1   .46   1.2
                           
OKC   Ajay Mitchell                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
.23   .558   11.8   3.1   3.2   1.7   1.7   .1   .46   1.3
.29   .556   12.4   3.0   3.2   1.7   1.7   .2   .53   1.5
.38   .593   13.1   3.9   3.2   1.4   1.8   .2   .62   1.7
.45   .597   14.0   3.8   3.0   1.3   1.7   .2   .67   1.7
.66   .597   13.7   3.8   3.0   1.4   1.7   .2   .67   1.2
.75   .597   13.0   3.7   2.9   1.3   1.7   .2   .61    .9
                           
Tor   Ja'Kobe Walter                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484  e82
.06   .217    2.5   8.6   1.5    .0    .0  1.0   .08   .1
.29   .425    9.6   6.5   2.3   1.0   1.9   .4   .39   .5
.38   .488   11.6   5.2   2.1   1.0   1.6   .5   .49   .9
.45   .486   10.3   4.6   2.0   1.0   1.6   .5   .33   .7
.66   .500   10.5   4.5   2.0   1.3   1.5   .3   .39   .8
.75   .501   10.3   4.9   1.7   1.3   1.6   .3   .37   .9
                           
Tor   Jamison Battle                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO  Blk  e484   e82
.06   .625   11.8   7.1   1.3   .0   .0   .7   .64   1.4
.11   .540   10.2   6.5   1.5   .0   .5   .5   .39    .9
.17   .598   11.5   5.5   1.6   .0   .7   .3   .41    .9
.23   .650   14.6   5.1   1.7   .3   .7   .5   .71   1.6
.29   .644   13.6   5.2   1.8   .3   .9   .4   .62   1.3
.38   .645   13.3   4.7   1.9   .4   .9   .3   .55   1.2
.45   .641   13.5   4.8   1.8   .3  1.0   .3   .57   1.1
.66   .629   13.5   4.8   1.7   .4   .8   .3   .58    .9
.75   .629   13.2   4.7   1.7   .4   .8   .3   .55    .7
                           
Tor   Jamal Shead                        
%Sea  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484  e82
.06   .450   9.2   1.9   6.6    .7   3.6   .3   .18   .6
.11   .475   8.7   2.1   5.9    .7   3.0   .4   .15   .4
.17   .430   7.8   1.9   5.5    .7   3.4   .3  -.07  -.2
.23   .449   8.6   2.3   5.5   1.1   3.1   .2   .12   .3
.29   .456   8.3   2.3   5.4   1.1   3.2   .2   .08   .2
.38   .493   8.6   2.7   5.5   1.3   3.0   .2   .21   .5
.45   .496   8.4   2.4   5.7   1.4   3.2   .3   .23   .5
.66   .515   9.3   2.3   5.4   1.1   2.9   .2   .26   .7
.75   .511   9.0   2.3   5.4   1.1   3.0   .2   .25   .7
                           
Phx   Oso Ighodaro                        
%Sea  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
.17   .667   9.9   8.6   1.1   .8   1.5   .8   .52   1.0
.23   .640   9.3   8.8   1.6   .8   1.4   .7   .56   1.1
.29   .630   8.3   8.2   1.8   .7   1.3   .7   .43   1.0
.38   .610   7.7   8.2   1.6   .9   1.0   .6   .44   1.0
.45   .575   7.3   8.0   1.8   .9   1.3   .7   .39    .9
.66   .567   7.0   7.1   1.8  1.0   1.3   .8   .33    .6
.75   .567   6.7   7.0   1.8   .9   1.2   .8   .31    .5
                           
Cha   Tidjane Salaün                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO  Blk  e484  e82
.06   .462   4.9   6.1   1.7   1.0    .6   .0   .08   .1
.11   .367   4.1   6.3   1.5    .9   1.5   .0  -.16  -.4
.17   .306   3.4   7.4   1.9    .7   1.5   .2  -.10  -.2
.23   .459   6.6   7.4   1.7    .8   1.6   .4   .18   .5
.29   .452   7.1   7.9   1.5   1.2   1.5   .3   .29   .8
.38   .441   6.7   7.6   1.7   1.1   1.5   .4   .26   .8
.45   .435   6.8   8.0   1.7   1.1   1.5   .4   .31   .9
.66   .436   6.9   7.6   1.7   1.1   1.5   .4   .30   .7
.75   .430   6.4   7.4   1.5    .9   1.6   .5   .20   .5
                           
Hou   Reed Sheppard                        
%Sea  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484  e82
.11   .517   8.8   3.1   4.0    .3   2.2    .3   .11   .2
.17   .482   9.2   3.4   3.5    .9   1.9    .7   .27   .6
.23   .462   9.2   3.0   3.6   1.5   2.0    .8   .32   .7
.29   .455   9.5   3.0   3.3   1.4   1.7   1.0   .36   .7
.38   .413   7.8   3.7   3.0   1.5   1.6   1.0   .26   .5
.45   .413   7.5   3.7   2.9   1.5   1.7   1.0   .25   .4
.66   .408   7.2   4.3   2.6   1.6   1.6   1.0   .28   .4
.75   .432   8.0   4.0   2.7   1.7   1.7    .9   .33   .5
                           
Atl   Keaton Wallace                        
%Sea  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO    Blk  e484  e82
.06   .714  13.4   3.3   2.2   1.2   1.4    .5   .52   .9
.11   .613  10.7   3.0   2.0   1.8   2.2   1.2   .29   .6
.17   .491   7.4   3.1   3.0   1.6   2.1   1.0   .14   .3
.23   .491   7.3   3.1   3.0   1.7   2.1   1.1   .13   .2
.29   .491   7.6   3.2   3.1   1.6   2.2   1.1   .16   .2
.38   .508   7.5   3.1   3.2   1.5   2.3    .9   .11   .1
.45   .514   7.9   3.0   3.2   1.7   2.3    .8   .19   .2
.75   .543   9.1   2.8   3.5   1.6   2.2    .6   .30   .4
                           
Mia   Pelle Larsson                        
%Sea   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484  e82
.17   .629   12.1   2.5   3.1   1.1   1.3   .0   .40   .6
.23   .609   12.5   3.6   2.5   1.1   1.1   .0   .48   .9
.29   .616   12.5   4.2   2.8   1.2   1.1   .0   .58  1.1
.38   .581   10.7   3.8   2.6   1.1   1.2   .0   .38   .6
.45   .573   10.1   3.8   2.6   1.2   1.2   .1   .36   .5
.66   .555    9.1   3.8   2.0   1.1   1.0   .3   .25   .4
.75   .558    9.3   3.6   2.1   1.0    .9   .3   .29   .4
                           
OKC   Dillon Jones                        
%Sea  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO  Blk  e484  e82
.17   .421   8.7   7.1   2.6   .9   1.9   .3   .35   .4
.29   .431   8.1   7.5   2.6   .7   1.5   .2   .36   .5
.38   .402   7.1   6.9   2.3   .6   1.3   .2   .23   .3
.45   .396   6.5   6.7   2.4   .6   1.4   .3   .19   .2
                           
Uta   Cody Williams                        
%Sea  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO  Blk   e484   e82
.06   .284   3.2   4.1   1.3   .8   1.3   .3   -.36  -1.4
.11   .345   3.8   4.2   1.7   .9   1.4   .5   -.26  -1.0
.17   .366   4.0   4.3   2.0   .9   1.3   .5   -.21   -.7
.23   .340   3.4   4.5   1.8   .8   1.3   .6   -.26   -.7
.29   .340   3.4   4.5   1.8   .8   1.3   .6   -.25   -.6
.38   .375   3.8   4.5   1.7   .7   1.4   .6   -.25   -.5
.45   .400   4.2   4.1   1.7   .9   1.4   .7   -.18   -.4
.66   .400   4.1   3.6   1.8  1.0   1.5   .6   -.24   -.4
.75   .430   5.1   3.8   1.8   .9   1.6   .5   -.14   -.3

Players who aren't active are indicated by a constant effective shooting%. Other rates still may change due to their relation to team and opponent margins.

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Sun Mar 09, 2025 8:53 pm

Edey, generally improved except most notably for usage and turnovers.

A number improved efg% but many also did not.

Nearly all lacking positive impact at this point.

It will be about what they do in yr 2 and 3 and beyond.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Mon Mar 10, 2025 1:38 am

How do you define "positive impact"?
An average player getting big minutes on a very weak team has a large positive impact.
The same player on an elite team would not get so many minutes, or he would be a detriment there.

The Wizards have -12 mov, so any player better than about -2.6 BPM (or any PM) is generally making them a better team.
With some players unavailable most nights, that threshold goes even lower.

The Pels have 2 above-avg players, and until recently they'd missed about half of the season (combined). So most often they have had 4 or 5 below-avg players on the floor. Were they all making the team worse?

Players within 0.2 BPM of average: Jalen Green, D'Angelo Russell, Jaden McDaniels, Jordan Poole, Lauri Markkanen, Michael Porter, Jaylen Brown, Bobby Portis, DeMar DeRozan, Grayson Allen, Malik Monk, Jrue Holiday, Anfernee Simons, Myles Turner, Trae Young, Paul George ...

An average NBA player is a starter, sometimes an allstar. There are 100 players this good. Lesser players also have positive impact.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Mon Mar 10, 2025 2:50 am

"Positive impact" meant positive impact on major individual metrics to me.

A player can be less negative than other alternatives. Call that positive impact on team if you want. More than one perspective / context for statements.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Mon Mar 10, 2025 9:59 am

OK, just curious. If a team BPM is -2.6, and a -2.0 player enters the lineup, does he have a positive impact?

APBRmetrics

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