Do 3-D players abruptly lose effectiveness?

[Mike G]

Some alltime leaders in triple-doubles seem to have careers that fall off a cliff after age 31.
In descending order and excluding those still in their prime -- Jokic, Doncic, Sabonis, Giannis.
O-D is ORtg minus DRtg.

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Russell Westbrook
years    PER  WS/48  BPM   O-D
22-31   25.0  .179   5.8   + 6
32-34   16.8  .049   0.7   - 9

Oscar Robertson
years    PER  WS/48  BPM   O-D
22-31   25.0  .224
32-34   18.6  .168

LeBron James
years    PER  WS/48  BPM   O-D
22-31   28.9  .263  10.0   +16
32-34   27.3  .211   8.2   + 9

Jason Kidd
years    PER  WS/48  BPM   O-D
22-31   19.1  .139   4.1   + 5
32-34   18.4  .137   4.4   + 5

James Harden
years    PER  WS/48  BPM   O-D
22-31   26.2  .238   7.8   +12
32-34   20.3  .167   4.5   + 8

Wilt Chamberlain
years    PER  WS/48
23-31   28.9  .267
32-34   21.3  .182

Larry Bird
years    PER  WS/48  BPM   O-D
23-31   24.2  .217   7.4   +15
32-34   20.9  .147   5.0   + 6

Lafayette Lever
years    PER  WS/48  BPM   O-D
22-31   18.2  .128   3.6   + 4
33      13.2  .070   0.5   - 4
 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... areer.html
Leader Westbrook was all-star from age 22 to 31. Oscar had the same prime years, so I stuck with that age range for the "before" sample.
Kidd dropped off around age 33-34, LeBron even later.
Some were injured in that 32-34 period: Wilt, Bird, Lever (who missed a year and played one more).

One might guess that such versatile players would have staying power that 1-D players would lack. Maybe they just did too much?

[Crow]

The biggest drivers of change on offense are minutes, usage, FG% efficiency and FTrate and sometimes turnovers.

There is variation in importance of these in the,individual cases.

Robertson and Westbrook declined broadly including usage and efficiency. James on FT rate more than anything else.
Kidd mainly declined due to increased turnovers and less shots. Harden mainly on usage. Bird broadly. Lever on minutes and usage. For Chamberlain the usage and ft rate bounced around to sometimes but not steadily lower. Rebounding generally declined some. Defense probably too but I didn't spend time on it.

Assists might decline some but probably would be the lesser issue.

[Mike G]

O-D is ORtg minus DRtg and should not deteriorate due to less Usage.
Almost all these guys took big hits in O-D, even if other stats show modest decline.

[Crow]

The first 6 named changed from main team about then. Changing team design and maybe level of control.

The modern 4 peaked on BPM around 28.5, pretty much as generally expected.

[Mike G]

I used next 3 years (age 32-34) to mediate the 'one bad year for whatever reason' phenomenon. We do expect most players to drop off around this age, but not all do so drastically.
In the course of a good season a 3-D-type can be shooting poorly and not have a 'bad' game because he can still pass and rebound. It doesn't seem to translate so well at season level.

I am also wondering if multi-skill players are more injury prone. Grant Hill? Penny Hardaway?

[Crow]

Hadn't known how weak the A/TO got for Hill and especially Hardaway in late career. Neither were much on rebounding late, Hardaway never.

Hardaway 1 season over +5 BPM, 3 total over +3. Hill 4 over +5, 7 total over +3. Both given long runaways to the exit.

Times were different but neither were great shooters. Hardaway, just 2 seasons over 50% efg. 3 over 55% ts%. 3 ball got good late but was above substandard only once before age 31. Hill, only once over 50% efg in first 9 seasons. Often modestly better after that. 3ball generally horrible but good twice late. FT rate important to Hill, Hardaway early.

[Mike G]

Oscar was in the NBA from age 22 to 35. Westbrook 20-36, but here they are at the same ages:

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.    Oscar Robertson     Russell Westbrook
age   PER   TS%  WS/48    PER   TS%  WS/48
22   25.9  .555  .210     23.6  .538  .159
23   26.2  .554  .214     22.9  .538  .163
24   24.6  .588  .229     23.9  .532  .195
25 m 27.6  .576  .278     24.7  .545  .178

26   26.7  .561  .238     29.1  .536  .222
27   25.2  .563  .232     27.6  .554  .245
28   25.5  .583  .241   m 30.6  .554  .224
29   24.6  .588  .214     24.7  .524  .166
30   21.8  .579  .180   x 21.1  .501  .124

age   PER   TS%  WS/48    PER   TS%  WS/48
31 x 21.5  .577  .191     21.0  .536  .098
32   19.6  .563  .186     19.5  .509  .075
33   18.9  .540  .167     15.0  .512  .030
34   17.2  .511  .148     16.1  .513  .044
35   14.2  .502  .113     16.2  .514  .066

m = mvp season
x = final year with original/main team
Westbrook with the greater peak PER but short duration. Declining years, age 29-32, they are almost identical.
As Oscar drops under .200 ws/48, Westbrook was soon below .100.