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Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Sun Dec 25, 2011 11:53 pm
by EvanZ
Crow is right. My last set of predictions is as updated as I'm going to make it (too late now, I guess, anyway). Here they are again:
Code: Select all
RK TEAM WIN% PD W L
1 MIA 76.5% 9.38 51 15
2 BOS 65.1% 5.69 43 23
3 CHI 64.9% 5.63 43 23
4 OKC 64.2% 5.39 42 24
5 ORL 64.0% 5.32 42 24
6 LAL 62.9% 4.97 42 24
7 DAL 62.7% 4.90 41 25
8 LAC 57.8% 3.32 38 28
9 SAS 56.7% 2.97 37 29
10 MEM 54.5% 2.27 36 30
11 ATL 54.5% 2.25 36 30
12 POR 53.9% 2.08 36 30
13 DEN 53.7% 2.01 35 31
14 PHI 53.5% 1.92 35 31
15 NYK 53.2% 1.84 35 31
16 IND 48.8% 0.42 32 34
17 MIL 47.9% 0.14 32 34
18 PHO 47.2% -0.10 31 35
19 HOU 45.2% -0.73 30 36
20 GSW 43.1% -1.43 28 38
21 UTA 39.2% -2.69 26 40
22 SAC 39.2% -2.70 26 40
23 NOH 38.7% -2.83 26 40
24 NJN 37.6% -3.21 25 41
25 CHA 36.0% -3.71 24 42
26 DET 34.2% -4.30 23 43
27 MIN 34.2% -4.30 23 43
28 CLE 33.0% -4.68 22 44
29 TOR 32.5% -4.85 21 45
30 WAS 28.6% -6.10 19 47
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 1:59 am
by Mike G
Evan, do your wins sum to 990?
I've double checked, and it seems they add up to 980.
Also wondering about the Vegas lines: without LAL and NJ, there are 914 wins predicted; leaving 76 to split between those 2 teams.
But our averages are about 64 (39+25) wins between them.
Since all the numbers are something-and-a-half, I wonder if they should be rounded up. This would add 14 wins ( 0.5 * 28 ) and leave 62 wins between the Lakers and the Nets.
I seem to recall some such convention with their predictions.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 2:10 am
by EvanZ
Ok, I got it to 990 (just needed to change my multiplier to 0.961):
RAPM + ezPM blended
Code: Select all
RK TEAM WIN% PD W L
1 MIA 77.4% 8.51 51 15
2 BOS 65.9% 4.93 43 23
3 CHI 65.7% 4.87 43 23
4 OKC 64.9% 4.64 43 23
5 ORL 64.7% 4.57 43 23
6 LAL 63.6% 4.23 42 24
7 DAL 63.4% 4.16 42 24
8 LAC 58.4% 2.62 39 27
9 SAS 57.4% 2.28 38 28
10 MEM 55.2% 1.60 36 30
11 ATL 55.1% 1.59 36 30
12 POR 54.6% 1.41 36 30
13 DEN 54.3% 1.35 36 30
14 PHI 54.1% 1.27 36 30
15 NYK 53.8% 1.18 36 30
16 IND 49.4% -0.20 33 33
17 MIL 48.5% -0.47 32 34
18 PHO 47.7% -0.70 32 34
19 HOU 45.8% -1.32 30 36
20 GSW 43.6% -1.99 29 37
21 UTA 39.6% -3.22 26 40
22 SAC 39.6% -3.22 26 40
23 NOH 39.2% -3.36 26 40
24 NJN 38.0% -3.72 25 41
25 CHA 36.4% -4.21 24 42
26 DET 34.6% -4.78 23 43
27 MIN 34.6% -4.79 23 43
28 CLE 33.4% -5.15 22 44
29 TOR 32.9% -5.32 22 44
30 WAS 28.9% -6.53 19 47
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 3:28 am
by EvanZ
Since Jerry didn't actually post "RAPM picks" here are my ratings using RAPM:
Code: Select all
RK TEAM WIN% PD W L
1 MIA 72.5% 6.78 48 18
2 BOS 68.9% 5.62 45 21
3 DAL 64.3% 4.13 42 24
4 CHI 63.3% 3.80 42 24
5 LAL 62.3% 3.49 41 25
6 OKC 62.2% 3.44 41 25
7 ORL 60.6% 2.93 40 26
8 NYK 57.8% 2.03 38 28
9 MEM 57.0% 1.77 38 28
10 SAS 56.1% 1.49 37 29
11 DEN 56.1% 1.47 37 29
12 POR 55.6% 1.32 37 29
13 PHI 54.1% 0.84 36 30
14 ATL 53.3% 0.58 35 31
15 LAC 51.3% -0.06 34 32
16 IND 49.8% -0.56 33 33
17 MIL 49.7% -0.59 33 33
18 HOU 43.6% -2.56 29 37
19 GSW 43.0% -2.73 28 38
20 PHO 42.5% -2.92 28 38
21 UTA 41.6% -3.20 27 39
22 NOH 41.1% -3.37 27 39
23 NJN 39.0% -4.03 26 40
24 CLE 38.9% -4.08 26 40
25 DET 37.9% -4.40 25 41
26 SAC 37.7% -4.46 25 41
27 MIN 36.5% -4.84 24 42
28 CHA 36.1% -4.98 24 42
29 WAS 35.0% -5.33 23 43
30 TOR 34.6% -5.44 23 43
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 9:30 pm
by Mike G
I've averaged the predictions and ranked by the expected improvement over last season, using 2010-11 Pythagorean W% * 66 games.
That column (11Py) is included as a minimum 'to beat' number. Some years, it has done pretty well vs the field.
Evan, your blended entry is shown as EV, and the purely RAPM is shown as EV2. These don't actually identify the method, so let us know if you have more-preferred designations. Or anyone else, on behalf of anyone else.
For space and clarity, I've gone integer in this display. All of Vegas' numbers are shown 0.5 too high, as are about 1/3 of dis'.
The Clippers' expected improvement is more than twice anyone else's. And their (3) point guards totaled 96 minutes last night.
Then some perennial doormats expected to rise.
Code: Select all
delta avg tm 11Py DSM MG EZ Vegas JH JE EZ2 dis Crow KP
14.3 40.4 LAC 26 43 42 39 43 41 40 34 42 41 40
6.7 26.3 Min 20 25 33 23 23 29 23 24 28 24 33
6.0 25.5 NJN 20 27 24 25 28 28 23 26 22 24 29
5.2 20.3 Cle 15 21 21 22 17 18 19 26 20 18 22
4.0 34.5 Ind 31 34 38 33 37 36 31 33 35 37 33
3.5 21.4 Was 18 24 22 19 21 22 21 23 21 22 20
3.0 24.8 Sac 22 29 29 26 21 25 20 25 25 23 26
2.7 33.7 Atl 31 33 31 36 35 33 33 35 35 36 31
2.5 37.1 NYK 35 35 38 36 42 35 38 38 38 36 36
2.1 22.1 Tor 20 25 21 22 17 19 24 23 22 21 28
delta avg tm 11Py DSM MG EZ Vegas JH JE EZ2 dis Crow KP
2.1 42.9 Okl 41 41 39 43 48 45 44 41 44 45 40
1.3 32.1 Mil 31 33 30 32 32 34 32 33 31 33 32
1.1 37.5 Por 36 37 38 36 38 38 38 37 37 39 38
1.0 49.3 Mia 48 46 46 51 51 52 49 48 53 50 48
0.4 28.4 GSW 28 32 29 29 27 26 29 28 33 27 25
-0.4 35.8 Phi 36 35 33 36 36 37 39 36 34 37 36
-0.7 24.3 Det 25 28 24 23 23 22 27 25 23 23 26
-1.2 36.9 Mem 38 37 36 36 39 37 37 38 37 40 32
-1.5 40.6 Dal 42 38 42 42 44 39 43 42 41 40 37
-1.6 27.3 Uta 29 28 30 26 26 27 25 27 29 26 30
delta avg tm 11Py DSM MG EZ Vegas JH JE EZ2 dis Crow KP
-2.4 46.1 Chi 49 41 50 43 48 48 49 42 49 46 46
-3.2 20.6 Cha 24 21 22 24 17 13 18 24 22 18 28
-3.6 27.4 Phx 31 29 23 32 27 24 27 28 29 28 28
-4.1 40.8 Bos 45 37 42 43 40 43 43 45 40 41 36
-4.5 40.3 SAS 45 42 43 38 42 42 44 37 38 40 38
-4.9 39.9 Orl 45 40 40 43 39 40 40 40 41 36 40
-5.6 40.2 LAL 46 40 39 42 49 40 42 41 36 41 34
-5.7 31.8 Hou 37 31 33 30 32 32 34 29 31 34 33
-5.9 36.6 Den 43 34 31 36 38 43 42 37 34 37 35
-9.8 25.2 NOH 35 25 21 26 25 22 25 27 24 27 31
0.0 990.3 totals 990 990 992 990 990 990 992 989 990 990
The Hornets got good returns for Paul, in my opinion. But nothing for West.
The Nuggets looked fairly lost in the playoffs last year. And then they lost half their team. Hollinger thinks they're just as good anyway, and I like them least.
The biggest discrepancy on the board is with Charlotte, whom Kevin P expects to rise to 28-29 wins, vs Vegas which expects 12-13.
Vegas supposes the Lakers improve by 3 games; to almost 7 wins more than what anyone else thinks.
(The Nets' Vegas wins are deduced, after I managed to find LA's. )
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:52 am
by EvanZ
Thanks for putting those together.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 1:12 pm
by J.E.
Deng looked, perhaps not surprisingly, like an All-World defender against LAL. But Rip Hamilton has not played well for the Bulls yet.
Amir Johnson seems to be starting for Toronto and played 33 minutes in the first game. Would be great if it stayed that way.
The Jazz are not starting Millsap, are they tanking already? That's quite a bit early..
Nowitzki admitted to being out of shape at the european championship. Maybe he was saying that to make the (otherwise horrible German) team look better, but if it's true one might question his dedication. Dallas looked really bad so far, but had two of the toughest opponents. I expect them to bounce back sooner rather than later.
At the start of the season Nowitzki had quite a bit of a lead for the prior informed RAPM, but already fell to 3rd place after 2 games, with LeBron leading the way now
Here's a post about predictions from the WP camp, but to me it's pretty much just an excuse for their bad prediction results last year. I'm fine with that, sometimes predictions can be off for different reasons. But when you take a jab at APM and PER at the end of the post for no reason, even though they outperform WP at retrodiction (which controls for some of the unforeseen circumstances), then that makes you look a little pathetic. Just sayin'..
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 1:58 pm
by Mike G
One reason my predictions seem to be rather devoid of super winners or losers -- all between 20 and 50 wins -- is that I don't expect any player to average over 36 minutes over the course of the season.
Kevin Pelton assumes all players miss at least 5 games (I think), and that limits a 39 mpg player to 36 over the full schedule.
LeBron James, who seems almost indestructible, is the only player I'm giving 36 mpg.
At 35 mpg -- actually, 2300 minutes/66 games -- Rondo, Rose, Deng, Griffin, Wade, Bosh, Durant, Dwight, Aldridge.
All these guys played more minutes last year, either per game or total. But most teams will have someone missing major minutes; and if they don't, they can expect to exceed expectations.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 5:58 pm
by DSMok1
Mike G wrote:One reason my predictions seem to be rather devoid of super winners or losers -- all between 20 and 50 wins -- is that I don't expect any player to average over 36 minutes over the course of the season.
Kevin Pelton assumes all players miss at least 5 games (I think), and that limits a 39 mpg player to 36 over the full schedule.
LeBron James, who seems almost indestructible, is the only player I'm giving 36 mpg.
At 35 mpg -- actually, 2300 minutes/66 games -- Rondo, Rose, Deng, Griffin, Wade, Bosh, Durant, Dwight, Aldridge.
All these guys played more minutes last year, either per game or total. But most teams will have someone missing major minutes; and if they don't, they can expect to exceed expectations.
My minutes distribution is why my spread is so tight, also. I just used depth charts and the same time for all starters on each team--that could obviously be a lot better. I don't think I had anybody above even 33 MPG! (That said, the minutes distribution will probably be tighter this year because of rest issues.)
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:45 pm
by EvanZ
Uh, so it dawned on me while reading
Alex Konkel's interesting post today, that I never posted my pure ezPM predictions. Seems like a good thing to do. Obviously, these have not been made with any data from 2012 (using same minutes projections as the others). Mike, if you care to, you could add these as EZ3 or something to your collection.
Code: Select all
RK TEAM WIN% PD W L
1 MIA 81.7% 10.23 54 12
2 ORL 68.3% 5.91 45 21
3 CHI 67.8% 5.74 45 21
4 OKC 67.3% 5.60 44 22
5 LAL 64.7% 4.75 43 23
6 LAC 64.6% 4.72 43 23
7 BOS 63.2% 4.26 42 24
8 DAL 62.6% 4.06 41 25
9 SAS 58.4% 2.71 39 27
10 ATL 56.6% 2.15 37 29
11 PHI 54.0% 1.30 36 30
12 POR 53.6% 1.17 35 31
13 MEM 53.5% 1.14 35 31
14 DEN 52.8% 0.90 35 31
15 PHO 52.3% 0.75 35 31
16 NYK 50.3% 0.09 33 33
17 IND 48.9% -0.34 32 34
18 HOU 47.6% -0.77 31 35
19 MIL 47.4% -0.82 31 35
20 GSW 44.0% -1.93 29 37
21 SAC 41.2% -2.83 27 39
22 UTA 37.9% -3.91 25 41
23 NOH 37.5% -4.04 25 41
24 NJN 37.1% -4.17 24 42
25 CHA 36.7% -4.29 24 42
26 MIN 32.8% -5.54 22 44
27 DET 31.7% -5.91 21 45
28 TOR 31.3% -6.05 21 45
29 CLE 28.6% -6.91 19 47
30 WAS 23.6% -8.51 16 50
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 9:02 pm
by DSMok1
Evan, do those PD's sum to an average of 0? They look skewed.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 9:51 pm
by EvanZ
Yep, there was a snafu with my spreadsheet. Looks better now.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:38 pm
by Mike G
DSMok1 wrote:
The selection bias issue to be concerned about ..: at the tail end of careers, when players are marginal, only the "lucky" players get another chance. Then, the next year, they are "unlucky", and that is the end of their careers. Thus the YtY change is biased high--the players that were "unlucky" in year 1 never get a chance to be "lucky" in year 2, to counter balance the "lucky"->"unlucky" sequence. ..
Can't say that I follow this. Some players at any age will miss a year, or most of a year, and bounce back. Sometimes, the year(s) off may seem to prolong a career.
Meanwhile, those players who have showed up, in uniform, trying out for a team, should be considered to be back on the aging curve, shouldn't they? If they're past their prime, we can expect their minutes to drop by X% and their effectiveness to drop by Y% ?
Isn't it
exactly the averages of
continuing players from year(x) to year(x+1) that we want to know, at the beginning of the season?
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:52 pm
by Mike G
EvanZ wrote:... I never posted my pure ezPM predictions. Seems like a good thing to do. Obviously, these have not been made with any data from 2012 (using same minutes projections as the others). Mike, if you care to, you could add these as EZ3 or something to your collection.
If this is straight
ezPM, then I'm inclined to call it that.
The one that's the blend of 2 metrics =
ez2
And the one that's RAPM, with your minutes allotment,
zRA -- because there's nothing ez about it.
I was more interested in the pure ezPM, actually, than in the blend.
And in fact, we could blend any 2 or more metrics to find the best 'predictor', during or after the season.
Also, you've submitted integer wins along with more detailed pt-diffs. I've hand-entered your W predictions as integers, and this could conceivably matter in the 'standings'.
It could rock your boat or hand you a false victory.
In any case, they add up to 992 wins. Just so you know.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 2:01 pm
by EvanZ
Mike G wrote:
And in fact, we could blend any 2 or more metrics to find the best 'predictor', during or after the season.
Yeah, I think we should try to address that question, too. I'm not sure each individual metric is going to get significantly better, or that there will be some incredible new metric that gets it all right. But maybe an "ensemble" average of all metrics would beat the best individual metric. Just a matter of figuring out how to blend them.