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Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 1:54 pm
by Mike G
As of yesterday morning, our predictions were looking still better.
Code: Select all
Bobb 8.24 Yoop 9.04
jBro 8.30 deep 9.08
416x 8.84 jank 9.47
hDon 8.925 ATC 9.59
eW 8.929 fpli 9.74
ncs 8.99 13Py 10.35
Avg error 9.01, at .241 of season.
The espn team is off by 8.60, so 'they' would rank 3rd here.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 3:27 pm
by Mike G
Another team that surprises everyone is Portland. Yoop and I picked them to win 34; they're headed for 59, and none of us picked them for more than 46 (416x).
Code: Select all
Blazers 2012-13 / predicted projected from 21 G
. mpg e484 mpg eW e484 mpg e82
Aldridge 34 1.58 32 8.6 1.88 37 11.7
Lillard 39 1.08 32 5.8 1.57 36 9.6
Batum 34 .99 32 5.4 1.31 35 7.9
Matthews 29 .73 26 3.2 1.13 34 6.5
Lopez 26 1.11 24 4.5 .90 30 4.6
Wright 22 1.02 20 3.5 .65 14 1.6
Williams 17 .97 20 3.3 .67 24 2.7
Leonard 15 .61 16 1.7 1.38 2 .4
Robinson 10 .55 12 1.1 1.08 12 2.1
Barton 11 .31 8 .4 1.03 1 .2
Watson 10 .28 8 .4 .00 2 .0
Freeland 6 .43 6 .4 .51 14 1.2
Claver 10 .10 6 .1 1.34 1 .2 (Crabbe,Allen)
.totals 262 242 38.4 242 48.6
The top 4 are all better AND playing more minutes than expected. Mo Williams is down but a lot better than last year's backup guards.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 3:39 pm
by Mike G
Still groping around for underlying causes of east-west imbalance. Here are teams' average age (minutes weighted, via b-r.com)
Code: Select all
West age East age
Dal 30.6 Mia 30.9
SAS 29.2 Brk 30.0
LAL 28.4 Chi 29.0
Mem 28.4 NYK 29.0
LAC 27.7 Atl 27.3
Den 26.8 Ind 26.9
Min 26.4 Was 26.1
GSW 26.2 Bos 25.7
Por 26.1 Mil 25.6
Phx 26.0 Orl 25.3
Hou 25.9 Tor 25.3
Okl 25.9 Cle 24.8
Sac 25.9 Det 24.7
Uta 25.1 Cha 24.5
NOP 24.6 Phl 23.5
The East has more of the oldest teams and more of the youngest teams.
The West, then, would seem to have more players of prime age. Like twice as many teams aged 26-27.5, or 25.5-28
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:47 pm
by AcrossTheCourt
Older teams are often very good teams because contenders pick up old veterans on cheaper contracts looking for a title. Miami's very old but obviously very good.
As promised, here's my look at Brooklyn:
http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.bl ... oklyn.html
Key stat: allowing 44.9% from above the break three-pointers. League average is near 35% and the next closest team is at 38%. I also don't expect Deron/Pierce/Garnett to continue shooting so poorly, and Kirilenko will help them a lot.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2013 5:21 pm
by Crow
Western teams have 9 of the 10 fastest paces, east 9 of the bottom 10.
Western teams have 10 of top 11 big minute PGs on winshares per 48 minutes.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2013 8:04 pm
by Crow
Eastern teams average spending a few million more than the west. They have 7 of the top 10 payrolls. So overall spending is not the issue holding them back; but GM, coaching and PG leadership all heavily favor the west and shows up in the form of the overall offensive edge and overall wins. Eastern teams have won 37% of the close games they have played- 3pts or less; while the west averages 56%. The west has won about 230% as many games against .500+ win pct teams.
Since no one inside ever talks substantively in public about their use of RAPM (or similar), I cant say that either conference has an edge there or that it has had a net pt differential / win impact for one conference over the other. Among well-known producers of APM the conferences are fairly balanced.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2013 10:25 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote:
Western teams have 10 of top 11 big minute PGs on winshares per 48 minutes.
Wow. That's quite amazing. I've got John Wall as the best PG in the East, heading for 10.9 eWins.
Next is Jeff Teague at 7.7
Out west, it's Paul at 14.0, Curry 11.9, Lillard 9.6, Lawson 9.3, Parker 8.8, Conley 8.4, Ellis 8.4, Westbrook 8.3, Thomas 8.1, Holiday 7.8
So yeah, that too is 10 of the top 11 PG.
Irving was supposed to be elite, but this year he's not, yet.
From the current Most Improved list at PG:
Code: Select all
eW+ West Conf. eW+ East Conf.
.82 Lillard,Damian Por .50 Wroten,Tony Phl
.75 Curry,Stephen GSW .45 Cole,Norris Mia
.72 Thomas,Isaiah Sac .41 Bradley,Avery Bos
.60 Lawson,Ty Den .39 Stuckey,Rodney Det
.43 Paul,Chris LAC .30 Teague,Jeff Atl
.40 Bledsoe,Eric Phx
.39 Blake,Steve LAL
.35 Dragic,Goran Phx
.32 Brooks,Aaron Hou
.31 Lin,Jeremy Hou
.30 Jackson,Reggie Okl
.29 Mills,Patty SAS
.27 Ellis,Monta Dal
.26 Holiday,Jrue NOP
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 6:52 pm
by Crow
I wonder what management of eastern teams are thinking about their conferences weak performance and in most cases their own middling to weak performance. I wonder how many will seriously consider changing GMs, coaches and/ or PGs. Most will probably ride it out for the season or multiple seasons without making changes in these areas. Many may not even really seriously consider making any of these changes. Many will probably continue to have middling to weak results. In some measure because of these leadership issues.
How much should insiders listen to and consider criticism from the outside? How much do they allow or encourage critique from the inside? Surely it varies and I don't know but I wonder it is generally enough. I wonder how much teams bring in outsiders to offer frank independent assessments. I imagine it probably happens quietly with some past GMs and coaches, maybe with past ties to the organization or not. I'd think this should be a common practice. I wonder if any or many teams bring in outside stat analysts for brief assessment and alternative opinions on key issues. I would guess that a good number of teams fall into having one rigid system of assessment, one ultimate decider, one world view until it get to the breaking point of final unacceptability. But it is just a guess, based on what I see from outside in the stats and on the court.
Leadership turnover may be the only way out of bad results but as suggested previously it can also be the cause of bad results. Got to decide what to stick with and be right.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 2:26 pm
by Mike G
We've improved to an avg error of 8.69, with the season .294 finished.
Code: Select all
Bobb 7.66 hDon 8.75
jBro 7.92 Yoop 8.78
416x 8.55 eW 8.83
deep 8.65 ATC 9.09
jank 8.680 13Py 9.73
ncs 8.681 fpli 10.01
We have a clear leader, a clear top 2, a clear trailer, and six of us bunched tightly.
At 8.83, espn is just hanging in there.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 2:43 pm
by nbacouchside
Mike G wrote:We've improved to an avg error of 8.69, with the season .294 finished.
Code: Select all
Bobb 7.66 hDon 8.75
jBro 7.92 Yoop 8.78
416x 8.55 eW 8.83
deep 8.65 ATC 9.09
jank 8.680 13Py 9.73
ncs 8.681 fpli 10.01
We have a clear leader, a clear top 2, a clear trailer, and six of us bunched tightly.
At 8.83, espn is just hanging in there.
Hooray for being middle of the pack!
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Mon Dec 23, 2013 4:14 pm
by Mike G
While a couple of us have fallen sharply in the last week, our average has improved again, to 8.53
Code: Select all
Bobb 7.35 416x 8.79
jBro 7.60 ATC 8.96
hDon 8.14 eW 9.05
jank 8.25 deep 9.11
ncs 8.40 fpli 9.55
Yoop 8.67 13Py 9.70
Using Pythagorean only (disregarding current W-L), avg error is 8.37
Code: Select all
Bobb 7.21 ATC 8.51
jBro 7.47 deep 8.51
hDon 8.21 Yoop 8.55
jank 8.30 eW 8.92
416x 8.37 fpli 9.63
ncs 8.43 13Py 10.02
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Mon Dec 23, 2013 9:17 pm
by Bobbofitos
Mike G wrote:While a couple of us have fallen sharply in the last week, our average has improved again, to 8.53
Code: Select all
Bobb 7.35 416x 8.79
jBro 7.60 ATC 8.96
hDon 8.14 eW 9.05
jank 8.25 deep 9.11
ncs 8.40 fpli 9.55
Yoop 8.67 13Py 9.70
Using Pythagorean only (disregarding current W-L), avg error is 8.37
Code: Select all
Bobb 7.21 ATC 8.51
jBro 7.47 deep 8.51
hDon 8.21 Yoop 8.55
jank 8.30 eW 8.92
416x 8.37 fpli 9.63
ncs 8.43 13Py 10.02
:thumb:
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 12:26 am
by nbacouchside
Bobbofitos wrote:Mike G wrote:While a couple of us have fallen sharply in the last week, our average has improved again, to 8.53
Code: Select all
Bobb 7.35 416x 8.79
jBro 7.60 ATC 8.96
hDon 8.14 eW 9.05
jank 8.25 deep 9.11
ncs 8.40 fpli 9.55
Yoop 8.67 13Py 9.70
Using Pythagorean only (disregarding current W-L), avg error is 8.37
Code: Select all
Bobb 7.21 ATC 8.51
jBro 7.47 deep 8.51
hDon 8.21 Yoop 8.55
jank 8.30 eW 8.92
416x 8.37 fpli 9.63
ncs 8.43 13Py 10.02
:thumb:
Bob, did you make your predictions based on any sort of metric / system or was it intuition and feel?
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 9:01 pm
by Bobbofitos
nbacouchside wrote:
Bob, did you make your predictions based on any sort of metric / system or was it intuition and feel?
Used a metric to determine minute productivity, used basketballmonster's minute projections, and injected an aging curve. Added or subtracted 1 game from each team based on my own disagreements or agreements.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2013 2:46 pm
by Mike G
We've taken a collective turn for the worse, with avg error now at 9.04
Code: Select all
Bobb 7.90 deep 9.11
jBro 8.09 ATC 9.24
jank 8.73 Yoop 9.51
hDon 8.81 eW 9.79
416x 8.96 fpli 10.27
ncs 9.02 13Py 10.34
The ESPN braintrust is also off by 9.04 at this time.