He's looking like a high-end starter at this point. He is 49th in BPM this season so far, 8th in the league in rebounding percentage, blocking shots... Looking very similar to John Collins and Jerami Grant so far this year.
Interestingly, if you look at Anthony Davis--Wood's statline is the most similar of any player in the NBA to Davis's.
Christian Wood
Re: Christian Wood
Wood currently 25th ranked on EPM. J Grant 52nd. Collins 24th. Davis 19th.
Wood isn't perfect but he is a great value.
Wood isn't perfect but he is a great value.
Re: Christian Wood
LA-RAPM estimates Grant higher than Wood. DARKO the reverse. RPM estimates them as about the same good impact.
Rockets getting way better results with neither Wood or Cousins than with either (or both, barely tested). But it is early. I'd certainly try Wood Cousins. And Cousins Tucker with the bench.
Rockets getting way better results with neither Wood or Cousins than with either (or both, barely tested). But it is early. I'd certainly try Wood Cousins. And Cousins Tucker with the bench.
Re: Christian Wood
Latter part of season was not as good for C Wood. As a consequence of that, yr to yr was a mixed set of changes too. 3pta rate up, the worst of career. Defensive rebound rate still strong but off reb rate continued move to lower / low. Steal and block rates down, though block rate was still good. TO rate good.
He is a good 2 way big even with the fade. More on defensive side, though his offense has gotten more attention from him and others. Usage near career high at 27%. Should it stay there, go up or down? Depends on team design, his minutes, endurance and efficiency. He wants an even bigger contract, so expect him to try to keep usage that high or higher. Team preferences? I dunno yet.
Want him to be a better shooter, occasional iso scorer but at the rim is the biggest offensive asset. Efg% was fine. TS% moved lower due to lesser ft rate and moved down ft%.
About 26. Keeper or trade? Next 6-18 months of basketball will decide whether to try to keep or trade. Team development timeline and cap management will be important considerations. Then he will decide.
PF or C or both? Available, imperfect 82games matchup and team stats suggest he should be mostly or all center.
Weight? Not sure what it actually is or what is the ideal going forward. Certainly don't want it too high but where should it be between 215 and 235? Should be carefully considered and not just whatever happens and not necessarily what he thinks best.
He is a good 2 way big even with the fade. More on defensive side, though his offense has gotten more attention from him and others. Usage near career high at 27%. Should it stay there, go up or down? Depends on team design, his minutes, endurance and efficiency. He wants an even bigger contract, so expect him to try to keep usage that high or higher. Team preferences? I dunno yet.
Want him to be a better shooter, occasional iso scorer but at the rim is the biggest offensive asset. Efg% was fine. TS% moved lower due to lesser ft rate and moved down ft%.
About 26. Keeper or trade? Next 6-18 months of basketball will decide whether to try to keep or trade. Team development timeline and cap management will be important considerations. Then he will decide.
PF or C or both? Available, imperfect 82games matchup and team stats suggest he should be mostly or all center.
Weight? Not sure what it actually is or what is the ideal going forward. Certainly don't want it too high but where should it be between 215 and 235? Should be carefully considered and not just whatever happens and not necessarily what he thinks best.
Re: Christian Wood
Christian Wood has pluses and minuses.
The good this season:
TS% of 62%, 2nd best of career.
Defensive rebounding rate, 2nd best of career.
Assist %, 2nd best of career.
Block rate, tied for 3rd best of career.
BPM estimate, 2nd best of career.
Darko projection, 91st best in league Darko Boxscore PM, 33rd best.
What to pay him? We'll find out. Good value? Depends on standard. May not be elite value but might be better than more than folks realize.
Mavs fairly unlikely to get better production from a replacement. Value, that would be easier but that has less to do with winning than production.
Mavs next season? There is a range of outcomes. Worse than this season is certainly in that range.
The good this season:
TS% of 62%, 2nd best of career.
Defensive rebounding rate, 2nd best of career.
Assist %, 2nd best of career.
Block rate, tied for 3rd best of career.
BPM estimate, 2nd best of career.
Darko projection, 91st best in league Darko Boxscore PM, 33rd best.
What to pay him? We'll find out. Good value? Depends on standard. May not be elite value but might be better than more than folks realize.
Mavs fairly unlikely to get better production from a replacement. Value, that would be easier but that has less to do with winning than production.
Mavs next season? There is a range of outcomes. Worse than this season is certainly in that range.
Re: Christian Wood
90 something Darko neighbors include Horford, Randle, Sabonis, E Mobley, Toppin and Drummond. 3 of 6 highly paid, 1 on way, 1 question mark, 1 formerly highly paid. Wood might be inbetween question mark and formerly pretty highly paid. Depends on how team views age and intangibles.
30 something neighbors on boxscore PM include Looney, Claxton, Kessler, Drummond, Adams and Okongwu.
Maybe these metrics arent enough of a basis but they are a start.
90 something on salary right now is $15-17 mil / yr and with bracket jumping expectation fairly soon could go bigger going forward. 30 something on salary is into the $30 mils / yr.
Maybe Wood goes for MLE, maybe 50-100% more. Unlikely for more given past team interest levels.
30 something neighbors on boxscore PM include Looney, Claxton, Kessler, Drummond, Adams and Okongwu.
Maybe these metrics arent enough of a basis but they are a start.
90 something on salary right now is $15-17 mil / yr and with bracket jumping expectation fairly soon could go bigger going forward. 30 something on salary is into the $30 mils / yr.
Maybe Wood goes for MLE, maybe 50-100% more. Unlikely for more given past team interest levels.
Re: Christian Wood
Wood, 3rd best rotation player on team by BPM with nobody below and still on team remotely close.
Pretty darn close to last season's numbers, presumably a large part of the basis for picking him up.
Pretty darn close to last season's numbers, presumably a large part of the basis for picking him up.
Re: Christian Wood
C Wood:
4 straight seasons with above league average on 3pt fg%.
5 straight seasons with above league average on efg%.
6 straight seasons with above league average on ts%.
4 straight seasons among top 20 qualified on defensive rebounding rate.
5 straight season above neutral on BPM. 4 over +1.4. Career average of +1.7 and +1.7 last season.
More data a few posts up.
Never measured at worse than -1 on DBPM for a season. Career average of -0.4. -0.3 last season.
Not yet 28.
60th on BPM. Ahead of Jaylen Brown. And Adebayo. Just a few ticks behind Brook Lopez. More than double of Draymond's BPM. And Gobert's. Nearly double of Anthony Edward's and Ayton's. More than 4 times Anunoby's.
Vastly better raw on and on / off than McGee. Moderately better than Kleber.
4 straight seasons with above league average on 3pt fg%.
5 straight seasons with above league average on efg%.
6 straight seasons with above league average on ts%.
4 straight seasons among top 20 qualified on defensive rebounding rate.
5 straight season above neutral on BPM. 4 over +1.4. Career average of +1.7 and +1.7 last season.
More data a few posts up.
Never measured at worse than -1 on DBPM for a season. Career average of -0.4. -0.3 last season.
Not yet 28.
60th on BPM. Ahead of Jaylen Brown. And Adebayo. Just a few ticks behind Brook Lopez. More than double of Draymond's BPM. And Gobert's. Nearly double of Anthony Edward's and Ayton's. More than 4 times Anunoby's.
Vastly better raw on and on / off than McGee. Moderately better than Kleber.
Re: Christian Wood
Quite bad RAPM the last 2 seasons and on 3 year.
Are teams making determinations on Wood on RAPM or subjective impressions backed up by RAPM or unrecognized congruence?
I dunno. There are lots of players they are apparently not using it much or at all on for minutes, roster spots and money.
If they are, that is notable. Would be worthwhile for a reporter to pursue it, with Mavs or earlier teams.
If they are using RAPM or similar does that mean they are comfortable with the confidence interval? Are the analysts recommending the use of and confidence in RAPM? So often in public, it is said not to.
Fwiw, Kidd's 2 biggest lineups with Wood each had 2 of his 4 worst pairs of his 10 most used. And each had the second worst trio in the 10 most used. How much is player vs. coach? I would think someone would think they could do better than Kidd and Silas. Some prior to them did.
Are teams making determinations on Wood on RAPM or subjective impressions backed up by RAPM or unrecognized congruence?
I dunno. There are lots of players they are apparently not using it much or at all on for minutes, roster spots and money.
If they are, that is notable. Would be worthwhile for a reporter to pursue it, with Mavs or earlier teams.
If they are using RAPM or similar does that mean they are comfortable with the confidence interval? Are the analysts recommending the use of and confidence in RAPM? So often in public, it is said not to.
Fwiw, Kidd's 2 biggest lineups with Wood each had 2 of his 4 worst pairs of his 10 most used. And each had the second worst trio in the 10 most used. How much is player vs. coach? I would think someone would think they could do better than Kidd and Silas. Some prior to them did.
Re: Christian Wood
Mostly the concerns seem to be not basketball related.
https://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/n ... id=1400882
https://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/n ... id=1400882
Re: Christian Wood
The article opts to not mention what these concerns are.
Something about "professionalism".
Something about "professionalism".
Re: Christian Wood
In last 4 years he played off the bench for 2 very slow paced teams and started for 2 years on a very fast paced Rockets team. I'd probably prefer to try the latter again.
During the latter he averaged about 19.5 pts and almost 10 rebounds. He didn't give edge but he sure gave production. And 59% ts%. Across a team, a good team, you need edge and production, though perhaps from different places. For a bad team, it does not really matter... unless you can turn production into a useful trade. I wonder why no team in a rush to meet the minimum salary requirement did not go after him early.
Some of his best performing pairs are with veteran role players.
His agent is not a top power broker. I wonder what difference that might have made to date or into the future.
During the latter he averaged about 19.5 pts and almost 10 rebounds. He didn't give edge but he sure gave production. And 59% ts%. Across a team, a good team, you need edge and production, though perhaps from different places. For a bad team, it does not really matter... unless you can turn production into a useful trade. I wonder why no team in a rush to meet the minimum salary requirement did not go after him early.
Some of his best performing pairs are with veteran role players.
His agent is not a top power broker. I wonder what difference that might have made to date or into the future.
Re: Christian Wood
From a design perspective, Wood should make it easier to play a defense first or only big man beside him or a perimeter without a great 3 pt shot who gives some other value. Or both.
Re: Christian Wood
Minutes, current true talent level, system, synergies and schedule all will impact Wood's impact.