I'm sure I missed a few, just did a join on play name with the data I was able to find on lunch break. If I could find an easy to digest table of current player salaries i'd do it for the entire league.
I get what you are saying here:
None of these but instead someone still unsigned was an option, as was trade or wait til next season or next summer. Or keep Olynyk or whoever they are about to trade.
Patterson is the great value on the list, regular season. Could take and trade later or just use better, more appropriately.
but they can't wait till next season if they want to extend/resign any of Thomas, Bradley, Smart as cap holds/ext puts them close/at the cap (don't quote me on that). If they want to were to sign people like Patterson/other value low cost contracts there are serious diminishing returns there. Getting better players to play off your bench/at the end of your rotation can only improve your team so much.
I don't think looking at it from a cost/RPM perspective really makes sense. Cost is heavily influence by playing time too and just looking at it by RPM sort of discounts how hard it is to be elite with increased minutes. Here's all FA signings thus far vs 2016 Wins (which is just an average of WS, WARP, VORP wins, and RPM wins):
So far the average cost per 2016 win has been $3.15M. By this measure, Hayward's deal is actually good and below market value.
Could also look at it by how players project for 2017, but that becomes a bit more subjective as every projection system is a bit different.
One can sort it out mentally but ideally best deals would be at top, down thru worst positives, then progressively thru the negatives. Just a minor sorting required. In future.
JoshEngleman wrote:We're now up to 23 deals, $2958M AAV and 95.2 wins in 17/18. That puts us at $3.1M per win.
I just got back from vacation, so I went ahead and updated my sheet. Right now, it breaks down like this:
Deals: 52
Total AAV: $649.4 million
Total Wins: 217.4
$ per win: $3.0
For reference, the league spent ~$3.5m per win last off-season. I was expecting a slight uptick, so this is a bit below my original expectation. I didn't expect this many short deals, particularly at value prices. I assumed they would look more like the Redick contract. Guys like Nick Young were primed to sign for bigger guarantees, but the money just wasn't there. Anyway, I've side-tracked this Celtics thread enough.
If teams are buying in this free market at $3 mil. per win and if they are hitting / stopping at cap then hypothetically a team buying entirely in this market would buy 33 wins with $99 million. Only ways to buy nor are to have legacy better values (including rookie contracts) select buys at better than current market rate or spend more. Could be interesting to see how teams sort out on use / reliance on these 3 paths.
Obviously, the SF minutes numbers are ridiculous. I expect the SG/SF/PF minutes to largely melt together. This is a really good regular season team. Without a consolidation trade, I don't see them as a real threat to Cleveland. For now, much like Tangotiger's Marcel projections for baseball, I have all new guys projected at .100, so Tatum/Zizic/Ojeleye/Yabusele/Theis are all "league average" for this exercise. These guys are on the margins, so it doesn't really matter too much. Imagine if they get #1 and #2 next year.
It would seem likely they'd want guards in next draft. Right now DX has one guard in top 7 and he is super young Doncic. All the guards in projected lottery are quite young... and thus very unlikely to contribute right away and especially not positively, not in playoffs.
So... sticking with IT? Or waiting 3-5 years for the too be drafted guards til Horford is an albatross or gone? And Hayward is past peak and Crowder is paid fair or gone? Relying on Rozier & Smart is an option too. I don't think much of that option though, for a title sized goal.
Reportedly Mike Zarren was obsessed with getting the 2018 pick from Philly. To take...? Doncic? I almost never buy the full measure of draftee hype and right now I'm inclined to fighting his hype. I see flash & alpha but I don't see great or good immediately. I was mainly focused on C's in next two playoffs. Doncic and other draft picks unlikely to be important, helpful playoff pieces before 2020, maybe longer.
It might become less, but right now it appears the Celtics are adding 6 plus guys with no NBA experience.
Tatum will get minutes & shots. Zizac, I guess. Beyond that if other rookies get minutes & shots it will at the expense of that expected by the experienced guys. There really isn't much slack created by the outflow of players after you account for the arriving vets and the top 2 rookies.
