APBRmetrics

Checking on Hugo Gonzalez:

Drafted 28th. 19th on BPM in draft class. -1.7.

-1 Darko projection. Declining last 7 games. Bottom 20% of offense, top 25% on defense. No improvement on offense all season. Defensive Darko plateaued in last month. FT rate and at the rim rate steadily moving down, 3pta rate climbing.

Pure RAPM is very high on him. XRapm half as much.

Crafted PM blend has at 23rd and neutral.

Jaylen Brown and +/-:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2035 ... 55868?s=20

Mazzulla has been playing Tatum, 3 starters and Hauser 3 times as much as with Pritchard. With Hauser -5pts / 100p, with Pritchard +70pts / 100p. Small samples but not following the numbers. 10 most used lineups are only 5 positive, 5 negative.

Since Tatum returned 9 games ago, Mazzulla has used 71 total lineups.

26 with Tatum. 38% are positive. 4 have received 10+ minutes but only 1 of those is positive. It is previous starters before Tatum's return with Tatum taking Hauser's spot. +71 pts / 100p in... 27 minutes. Starters with Tatum over Pritchard? Used 325% as much. -0.6.

Celtics beat Thunder, at least partially based on size.

Boston Celtics drafting:

2012-15: 10 picks, 7 in 1st round.
Yield: Marcus Smart, Rozier later used in trade for 2 years of K Walker. Not much else.

2016: 8 picks, 3 in 1st round.
Yield: J Brown. Almost nothing else.

2017-18: 5 picks, 2 in 1st round.
Yield: Tatum. Great pick. R Williams.

2019-23: 11 picks, 6 in 1st round.
Yield: G Williams, Pritchard, Nesmith.

2024-25: 4 picks 2 in 1st round. Yield: Sheierman and Gonzalez. Traded Bane fmin Kanter dump.

38 picks, 20 in 1st round. 10 notable pick-ups.

Who was still available for them to pick?

Draymond Green, Crowder, Schroder, Gobert, Randle, Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Jokic, L Nance, D Murray, Brogdon, Hartenstein or D Brooks, NAW or Bitadze, Jerome or K Johnson, Maxey, Jaden McDaniels, I Joe, A Wiggins, Santos, Gueye or Jackson-Davis, AJ Mitchell, Kalkbrenner.

To name the best not picked by Celtics but could have been

Celtics loss game 7 with a whack starting lineup as a main reason.

Recommended changes;

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2050 ... 52360?s=20

Getting to rim and FT line are Celtics issues.

Tatum had lowest FT rate in 5 years in regular season and 2nd lowest in playoffs in career (to last time).

Of 21 players with Celtics this season, 11 were below .200 FT rate, 4 below .100. League average is .264. Celtics average .207. Hauser was at .033.

Tatum also set career low in regular season on at the rim frequency at 26% below league average. In this playoffs it was up some from that and last playoffs but still modest and lower than career average. Team as whole was dead last and almost 30% below average.

Brown by contrast was at career high FT rate in regular season and reasonably close to it in playoffs. If they move Brown, the FT rate issue gets bigger and demands even more change. His at the rim frequency however was at clear career lows in regular season and playoffs and well below league averages. 2/3rds of roster were below league average in regular season.

Hauser and White are both extremely low on at the rim frequency. The pair was very good in regular season but massively the worst among 10 most used on playoffs. Either they fix what they couldn't / didn't in series or go away from the pairing and perhaps one or both players?

The issues exist with the top players and too many of the rest. The issues also deeply involve Coach and GM. They let it get this far. Too far, in the name of 3s. Stevens was right to recognize the rim issue. Didnt hear as much about FT rate but there was a little. He is most responsible for team results. Will be watching if his actions are sufficient to address the problems. Will take major changes.

Garza and Walsh improved on these rates yr to yr and may deserve more minutes, if even better are not brought in. Queta is good but better is possible.

Gonzalez is very weak on ft rate and decent on at the rim frequency. He'll get more minutes but should get coaching & push to improve these rates. Scheierman was very low on both and slightly declining. Improved overall but not a fit for an improvement plan of these elements. Trade or scale back? Increasing role would aggravate these issues. Pritchard improved to career high FT rate but it is still very low. He fell to career low on at the rim frequency. Very good overall but part of these problems. Harper is surprisingly incredibly terrible and terrible on these measures.

Got to remove or reform or reduce some of these low performers at minimum and add much stronger. Should draft guys strong on these elements or at least average.

A bit more:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2052 ... 05681?s=20

Additional comments on Celtics versus top 5 opponents:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2052 ... 36126?s=20