Giannis is at 59% ts%, but that is his least strong in 7 years. BPM is lowest in 5 years.
November was down but December is better.
DARKO projection peaked early last season and it has declined since. Broke below trendline early this season.
'22-23 Commentary
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Spurs, just 1 lineup over 1.5 minutes per game and it is moderate loser.
7 of 20 most used are positive but none tested much more than 1 minute per game and all but one at barely less half a minute per game or less.
425 lineups used actually exceeds Thunder by 8. Plenty of crap dink lineups achieving the tank.
All 20 of 20 most used pairs are negative as are 45 of the top 50.
Every Poeltl pair on current roster is negative except the first few minutes with Stanley Johnson. Same deal with Keldon Johnson. And Vassell. And Jones except for a positive with Bassey. Almost true for Sochan but he does have a few fraction of a point positives.
Need to use current starters far differently and / or get a far different set of starters... to win more.
7 of 20 most used are positive but none tested much more than 1 minute per game and all but one at barely less half a minute per game or less.
425 lineups used actually exceeds Thunder by 8. Plenty of crap dink lineups achieving the tank.
All 20 of 20 most used pairs are negative as are 45 of the top 50.
Every Poeltl pair on current roster is negative except the first few minutes with Stanley Johnson. Same deal with Keldon Johnson. And Vassell. And Jones except for a positive with Bassey. Almost true for Sochan but he does have a few fraction of a point positives.
Need to use current starters far differently and / or get a far different set of starters... to win more.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
VanVleet, 2nd on team for fgas, 15th on efg%.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Tre Young, lowest 3pt rate and 3pt fg% of career. Least strong ts% and BPM since rookie year.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Fox Murray Sabonis are a moderate positive trio. Murray Sabonis, no Fox is a huge positive, more than 3 times the latter. But the latter gets twice the playing time.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Warriors and Lakers are top 6 on direct salary and under .500 W-L. Mavs are 7th on salary and just barely over .500.
Worst records in recent times for teams in top 10 on salary? Maybe I'll look later.
Worst records in recent times for teams in top 10 on salary? Maybe I'll look later.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Anthony Edwards 127th on BPM, half of last season's.
DARKO projection has him at 30th. I am not buying that. He has plateaued there but he doesn't seem worthy of 30th to me.
DARKO projection has him at 30th. I am not buying that. He has plateaued there but he doesn't seem worthy of 30th to me.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
DARKO is weighted by recency, yes? And his more recent games have been more consistently good.
Dividing his games this year into 1/3's:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nced/2023/
If his last 13 games are closer to the player going forward, a BPM of 2.0 is top 50 anyway.
With his minutes and a 2.0 BPM, he's #20-25 in VORP.
Dividing his games this year into 1/3's:
Code: Select all
games Usg% TS% TRb% Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% GmSc BPM
1to12 26.4 .540 8.0 15.3 1.6 .7 13.9 12.9 -2.7
13-25 27.6 .584 9.3 17.9 3.1 1.1 13.5 18.0 1.4
26-38 30.4 .577 10.8 21.5 2.0 2.4 12.6 19.4 2.0
If his last 13 games are closer to the player going forward, a BPM of 2.0 is top 50 anyway.
With his minutes and a 2.0 BPM, he's #20-25 in VORP.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Your research shows recency is with him. I'm still skeptical. 3.5 months left in regular season.
DARKO barely punished him for the first 12 games and delayed. The performance in the second 12 was not that of a top 30 guy either. Majority of season does not support the current rank.
Fwiw DRIP projection and EPM current estimate are both 20% lower than Darko. BPM is the bottom outlier in this group at 70% lower. Raptor is 35% less. Different measures, current and projected, but DARKO is the top outlier. (Don't have LeBron.)
DARKO barely punished him for the first 12 games and delayed. The performance in the second 12 was not that of a top 30 guy either. Majority of season does not support the current rank.
Fwiw DRIP projection and EPM current estimate are both 20% lower than Darko. BPM is the bottom outlier in this group at 70% lower. Raptor is 35% less. Different measures, current and projected, but DARKO is the top outlier. (Don't have LeBron.)
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Remember the "draft experts" that loved Ziaire Williams, early or all the way til the draft?
He'll grow out of his crappy college stats was the thought.
In year 3 and has a -8 BPM.
Griz took 10th. Not in my first round and not close.
He'll grow out of his crappy college stats was the thought.
In year 3 and has a -8 BPM.
Griz took 10th. Not in my first round and not close.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
The Pistons are in very bottom on offensive and defensive efficiency. On offense, because of 4th worst efg%. The shot distribution is heavy of ftas (highest rate in league), light on shots at rim. Defense is bad on all 4 factors.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Raptors are 9-17 since Dec. 1. During that time, the 7 most used lineups average +2.5 pts / 48 minutes, while Nick Nurse used about 190 other lineups at an average rate of -3.6 / 48. Too many games lost in the dink lineups.
Boucher - Barnes allowed to play 219 minutes during the period at -15pts / 100p. Did they not know or just not react to this information? Either was a major mistake. It is no longer the worst pairing in last 5 games but it is still quite bad and being used 10 minutes per game. Other starter pairings have been terrible recently.
Basic data (and more detailed) needs hours and hours of study daily / weekly. Read, assess and maybe react. I wouldn't count on the Coach to be on top of it himself. Find the trends manually or have many dozens or hundreds (or even thousands) of automated tripwires to alert for attention. Attention by ANALYSTS. Not engineers / modelers or executives / coaches trained for, doing and best at other stuff. Full-time analysts.
Boucher - Barnes allowed to play 219 minutes during the period at -15pts / 100p. Did they not know or just not react to this information? Either was a major mistake. It is no longer the worst pairing in last 5 games but it is still quite bad and being used 10 minutes per game. Other starter pairings have been terrible recently.
Basic data (and more detailed) needs hours and hours of study daily / weekly. Read, assess and maybe react. I wouldn't count on the Coach to be on top of it himself. Find the trends manually or have many dozens or hundreds (or even thousands) of automated tripwires to alert for attention. Attention by ANALYSTS. Not engineers / modelers or executives / coaches trained for, doing and best at other stuff. Full-time analysts.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
After an 8W-2L run(that helped Pelton and hurt me in projection contest), the Pacers have lost 7 straight.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Rockets and Hornets tied for worst 3pt fg% at 33.0%. Raptors, Heat and Lakers fill out the bottom 5. It will ebb and flow but right now none can say they did enough to get good results.
Average is almost 36%. 8 teams 37% & over. Nuggets at 39.9%.
Average is almost 36%. 8 teams 37% & over. Nuggets at 39.9%.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Just 4 teams with an SRS over +4. Celtics, Griz, Cavs and Nuggets. But none over +6. 4 more over +2 might have some chance. Several at +1 and near 0 can't be totally ruled out but are longer shots they hoped / expected. Playoff seeding / matchups will be very important.