2023 Draft notes

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Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

Jackson-Davis agent (Dunleavy's brother) worked against other teams than Warriors drafting him, for a stretch or all night?
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

Draft order helps bad performing teams.

One way to reward good behavior and success might be to give regular season conference champs an extra first round pick (maybe 16th). Might be less load management, resting for playoffs, picking matchups if there was a straightforward prize for winning the most games.

Or broaden it and reward the top 4 in each conference with a draft pick bonus on a graduated scale (from mid-first to early second round).

Playoff seeding reward doesn't seem sufficient motivation for regular season maximization.

Is regular season maximization that important? I dunno. But if it is, this would help.
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

T Smith, touted by many as a first round pick, even lottery early on... not drafted. Never (to my memory) on my draft board, this season or last.
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

Of the top 10 in 2019 draft, 5 got "paid" but at least 2 have possible trade rumors. 4 guys drafted young are no buzz free agents and the other one might get MLE or higher based on late surge.

Meanwhile some no draft buzz, older entry players (now reaching mid 20s) who proved to be at least decent in NBA are getting chased hard.
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

Markquis Nowell signs 2 way contract with Raptors. 49th on my board, higher than I saw anywhere else.
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

Jaquez with a big first game in summer league.
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

Lakers get Hodge and Castleton undrafted. Early 2nd rounders to me.

Sanogo and Tubelis were also guys I rated as 2nd rounders able to get 2 ways after not being selected. Among others.

And of course there are Tshiebwe and Timme (just exhibit 10 for now). Timme flips from widely regarded as too old to draft (by others) to a still 22 / very young potential bench development piece or perhaps rotation player (by me).

Jackson-Davis tops the list of undrafted, underdrafted thru ridiculous misevaluation and then active hostility to accepting a 2 way from an unfavored team.

I expect these guys to do well (relative to many taken too high), next season or eventually.
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

Exact details not out yet but Jackson-Davis may gotten a contract similar to picks in the 20s. Warriors and I agree on that one.
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

I use last season performance before NBA
(especially overall metrics) almost exclusively to project first / second year NBA performance. I barely look at RSCI or prep hype.

I do not take mock draft consensus or actual draft rank as very useful to predict 4th / 5th year performance, as many are trying to do without much success. That is imo really the job of 2nd year NBA performance analysis. My last season before NBA performance analysis will have to do as proxy until at least most of rookie season data is available.
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

Wembanyama's summer league debut: 9 points on 18 possessions used.

On the plus side: 5 blocks, 3 assists and 8 defensive rebounds.
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

Wembanyama with a strong game, but hasn't faced a quality matchup opponent yet.


And won't with the early shutdown.
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

Scoot Henderson guaranteeing Rookie of Year win.

Will he be top 2 or even top 4? By the voters or by metrics?
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

Some draft data analysis for last 6 drafts:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1705 ... 75131?s=20
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

My 2024 draft notes may not start until January, March or June or may not start at all. Not sure how it will unfold. I am pretty sure I won't have anything to say until at least January. Largely because I put much more weight on last season before NBA than most because of knowing and trusting very little of what comes before that.
Crow
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Re: 2023 Draft notes

Post by Crow »

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1712 ... 55335?s=20

Differences in two 2023 draft boards to watch.
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