Re: Leonard's DRPM, let's pause and look around and see if there is anything else available. How about DRPM from previous years?
Leonard's DRPM is 2013-4 was estimated to be +2.1. In 14-15, +4.6. In 15-16, +3.9. So DRPM agrees he has been an elite defender.
His DRPM in 16-17 is way down. Coming along with more offensive responsibility. Does the eyes test agree or disagree with a drop in DRPM? What will it be in 2017-18?
No, one year's estimate of half of a player's impact does not "refute" RPM. The value of that one player may be off, some, a lot, or not. In striving to get best possible fit on average for league, some player's ratings maybe be way off to produce that best league fit. It does raise questions and call for further open-minded research.
Sam Hinkie gone :(
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
There's always going to be a lot of context needed with a single player stat. RPM is heavily weighted by what is happening this season within the context of that particular player and team. For predictive purposes you would want multiple years.
Kawhi's case may in part be explained by his increased scoring responsibility, how teams are scheming for him when they are on offense and a lot of minutes off the bench for Simmons and Dedmon playing without Kawhi, who both have good defensive numbers this season.
In case of Saric a higher RPM would be ideal to be bullish on his long term prospects, but given his age and state of PHI, it certainly doesn't mean he can't or won't significantly improve. There is merit to compare his single season stats to similar players at that age and draw some conclusions. Ingram's RPM is not very good and he's another young player you might believe to be better than his RPM suggests. Most rookies aren't very good.
Ultimately these discussions become very circular until you truly define what is RPM explaining (or predicting, assessing).
Kawhi's case may in part be explained by his increased scoring responsibility, how teams are scheming for him when they are on offense and a lot of minutes off the bench for Simmons and Dedmon playing without Kawhi, who both have good defensive numbers this season.
In case of Saric a higher RPM would be ideal to be bullish on his long term prospects, but given his age and state of PHI, it certainly doesn't mean he can't or won't significantly improve. There is merit to compare his single season stats to similar players at that age and draw some conclusions. Ingram's RPM is not very good and he's another young player you might believe to be better than his RPM suggests. Most rookies aren't very good.
Ultimately these discussions become very circular until you truly define what is RPM explaining (or predicting, assessing).
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
In early Dec. Saric's RPM was -4.1. In early January it was -3.7. It is now -2.4. RPM thinks he is improving from a weak start; just like boxscore metrics and I would think scouting too. Almost all the improvement on RPM is coming on the offensive side. Helped by his increased assists and improved overall scoring efficiency. Makes sense to me. He is still more than -1 on both sides of the ball. So he has further need of improvement. But the signs are (using all available tools) that progress is being made. There does not seem to be disagreement about general progress. Past or future? Yeah there was / might still be some disagreement.
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
No, one year's estimate of half of a player's impact does not "refute" RPM.
the back-to-back DPOY is playing the most minutes on the league's best defensive team, and a metric purporting to measure a player's defensive contribution lists him nowhere near the best defensive player in the league let alone even on his team, and that does not refute the metric?...
this is not an outlier we are talking about here - among the 470+ players in the league he's in the top 50 in total minutes played...
if the metric does not show leonard as a very good to excellent defender, then what exactly is the 0.84 DRPM number supposed to mean?...
again - if you watch him play - you would know that he routinely guards the opposing team's best offensive player (except Cs), and is a beast on the defensive end. his combination of man/shot defense, defensive rebounding, rates for steals and blocked shots - in combination - is outstanding for a SF...
Kawhi's case may in part be explained by his increased scoring responsibility
leonard lead the spurs in scoring last season when they were 1st in the league in defensive efficiency and he was DPOY. he is again leading the team in scoring and they are first in defense...
how teams are scheming for him when they are on offense and a lot of minutes off the bench for Simmons and Dedmon playing without Kawhi, who both have good defensive numbers this season.
are you seriously trying to suggest that jonathon simmons is a better defensive player than kawhi leonard because DRPM says so?...
the spurs are the best team in the league on defense - i.e. as a team they are excellent on defense, best among 30 teams...
leonard is playing 1/8 of the spurs total minutes - if he is not excellent on defense, who among the other 7/8 of their total minutes played is? other than dedmon?...
both lamarcus aldridge and danny green are very good to excellent defenders, but not tony parker nor david lee. parker and lee combine to have played close to 1/6 of the spurs total minutes played - add in leonard and that means leonard/parker/lee have played 1 out of every 3-4 of the spurs total minutes played...
if not 1 of the 3 is a very good to excellent defender, then how does the rest of the team stack up defensively such that the spurs as a team are best in the league defensively?...
here is the DRPM for the spurs:
player-------minutes----DRPM
k.leonard----1923--------0.84-----26th among SFs
l.aldridge----1860--------1.45-----21st among PFs
d.green------1492--------1.99------3rd among SGs
p.mills-------1342------(-0.90)
t.parker-----1256------(-0.56)-----38th among PGs
p.gasol------1195--------1.82------20th among Cs
d.lee---------1157-------1.21
j.simmons---1047-------1.76
m.ginobili---1036-------0.63
d.dedmon---0981-------4.37
k.anderson--0719-------2.35
d.bertans----0592-------0.17
anyone care to take a stab at explaining how a metric some have described as the best metric there is ranks a team's starting C 20th in DRPM among Cs, staring PF 21st among PFs, starting SF 26th among SFs, and starting PG 38th among PGs in DRPM...
yet the team is best in the league defensively??...
the back-to-back DPOY is playing the most minutes on the league's best defensive team, and a metric purporting to measure a player's defensive contribution lists him nowhere near the best defensive player in the league let alone even on his team, and that does not refute the metric?...
this is not an outlier we are talking about here - among the 470+ players in the league he's in the top 50 in total minutes played...
if the metric does not show leonard as a very good to excellent defender, then what exactly is the 0.84 DRPM number supposed to mean?...
again - if you watch him play - you would know that he routinely guards the opposing team's best offensive player (except Cs), and is a beast on the defensive end. his combination of man/shot defense, defensive rebounding, rates for steals and blocked shots - in combination - is outstanding for a SF...
Kawhi's case may in part be explained by his increased scoring responsibility
leonard lead the spurs in scoring last season when they were 1st in the league in defensive efficiency and he was DPOY. he is again leading the team in scoring and they are first in defense...
how teams are scheming for him when they are on offense and a lot of minutes off the bench for Simmons and Dedmon playing without Kawhi, who both have good defensive numbers this season.
are you seriously trying to suggest that jonathon simmons is a better defensive player than kawhi leonard because DRPM says so?...
the spurs are the best team in the league on defense - i.e. as a team they are excellent on defense, best among 30 teams...
leonard is playing 1/8 of the spurs total minutes - if he is not excellent on defense, who among the other 7/8 of their total minutes played is? other than dedmon?...
both lamarcus aldridge and danny green are very good to excellent defenders, but not tony parker nor david lee. parker and lee combine to have played close to 1/6 of the spurs total minutes played - add in leonard and that means leonard/parker/lee have played 1 out of every 3-4 of the spurs total minutes played...
if not 1 of the 3 is a very good to excellent defender, then how does the rest of the team stack up defensively such that the spurs as a team are best in the league defensively?...
here is the DRPM for the spurs:
player-------minutes----DRPM
k.leonard----1923--------0.84-----26th among SFs
l.aldridge----1860--------1.45-----21st among PFs
d.green------1492--------1.99------3rd among SGs
p.mills-------1342------(-0.90)
t.parker-----1256------(-0.56)-----38th among PGs
p.gasol------1195--------1.82------20th among Cs
d.lee---------1157-------1.21
j.simmons---1047-------1.76
m.ginobili---1036-------0.63
d.dedmon---0981-------4.37
k.anderson--0719-------2.35
d.bertans----0592-------0.17
anyone care to take a stab at explaining how a metric some have described as the best metric there is ranks a team's starting C 20th in DRPM among Cs, staring PF 21st among PFs, starting SF 26th among SFs, and starting PG 38th among PGs in DRPM...
yet the team is best in the league defensively??...
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
I am in part playing devil's advocate and surmising why his rating would not be as high this season. It is indeed problematic given the minutes he plays on a defense this good.
His usage is up almost 6 % points. That's a huge increased offensive load. Has maintained the same TS% while improving his ast/to ratio with the 7th highest usage rate in the league. He was ALSO expected to do a lot last year on offense. Teams are shooting 3.3% better from 3 with Kawhi off the court, so can probably start right there with some of the noise you are going to see with defensive metrics. Regardless of increase, is it NOT possible the Spurs are getting more defensive production from other players this season?bchaikin wrote:
Kawhi's case may in part be explained by his increased scoring responsibility
leonard lead the spurs in scoring last season when they were 1st in the league in defensive efficiency and he was DPOY. he is again leading the team in scoring and they are first in defense...
I never suggested Simmons was a better defender. Maybe explaining possible quirks of the on/off splits given who comes off the bench and lineup combinations as you have pointed out whether its LMA, Green, TP or DLee?bchaikin wrote: how teams are scheming for him when they are on offense and a lot of minutes off the bench for Simmons and Dedmon playing without Kawhi, who both have good defensive numbers this season.
are you seriously trying to suggest that jonathon simmons is a better defensive player than kawhi leonard because DRPM says so?...
the spurs are the best team in the league on defense - i.e. as a team they are excellent on defense, best among 30 teams...
leonard is playing 1/8 of the spurs total minutes - if he is not excellent on defense, who among the other 7/8 of their total minutes played is? other than dedmon?...
both lamarcus aldridge and danny green are very good to excellent defenders, but not tony parker nor david lee. parker and lee combine to have played close to 1/6 of the spurs total minutes played - add in leonard and that means leonard/parker/lee have played 1 out of every 3-4 of the spurs total minutes played...
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
why would that refute the metric?
it can be wrong in certain cases, while still being the "best" overall (not that it necessarily is)
trying to answer whatabouts for individual player metrics is a fool's errand so i'll pass on that
it can be wrong in certain cases, while still being the "best" overall (not that it necessarily is)
trying to answer whatabouts for individual player metrics is a fool's errand so i'll pass on that
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
Here is what the on / off data at 82games says (with rounding):
This season Leonard on court, team defense 7.5 pts worse per 48 minutes than when he is off. efg% allowed 4%pts worse. Turnovers forced down by 3.
Last season: Defense 4.4 pts better when he was on. Efg% 2.5 pts better on vs off. Turnovers forced just 1 worse on vs. off.
These are huge, huge changes. And have zero to do with RPM. RPM appears to be actually crediting him more than raw play by play on / off data might suggest. BPM has Leonard's DBPM cut in half this season vs. last. Defensive Winshares cut by 1/3rd. So 4 datasets show major decline. What shows the opposite? (maintenance of last season's levels)?
Spurs with 10 guys positive on DRPM. Probably near top or tops.
The effects of heightened focus on offense (above last season) may not be linear. Or he might be "victim" of poor lineups choices or luck to some degree.
No obvious really bad raw plus minus player pairs. But Gasol is in his 2nd worst pairing by raw plus minus and Gasol & Aldridge in 2nd worst triplet. Something to look at even though still moderate positives. Would be interesting to see adjusted pair data though.
Better chance to "determine" what is happening if this is repeated next season or not.
This season Leonard on court, team defense 7.5 pts worse per 48 minutes than when he is off. efg% allowed 4%pts worse. Turnovers forced down by 3.
Last season: Defense 4.4 pts better when he was on. Efg% 2.5 pts better on vs off. Turnovers forced just 1 worse on vs. off.
These are huge, huge changes. And have zero to do with RPM. RPM appears to be actually crediting him more than raw play by play on / off data might suggest. BPM has Leonard's DBPM cut in half this season vs. last. Defensive Winshares cut by 1/3rd. So 4 datasets show major decline. What shows the opposite? (maintenance of last season's levels)?
Spurs with 10 guys positive on DRPM. Probably near top or tops.
The effects of heightened focus on offense (above last season) may not be linear. Or he might be "victim" of poor lineups choices or luck to some degree.
No obvious really bad raw plus minus player pairs. But Gasol is in his 2nd worst pairing by raw plus minus and Gasol & Aldridge in 2nd worst triplet. Something to look at even though still moderate positives. Would be interesting to see adjusted pair data though.
Better chance to "determine" what is happening if this is repeated next season or not.
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
why would that refute the metric?
it purports to measure defense but doesn't - 4 of 5 spurs starters ranking between 20th and 38th in DRPM at their respective positions yet san antonio is the league's top defensive team...
it can be wrong in certain cases, while still being the "best" overall
in your eyes how many wrong certain cases does it take to invalidate a metric's claims?...
espn real plus/minus also shows t-wolves PF gorgui dieng listed 2nd among all PFs in DRPM at 3.46, but t-wolves C karl-anthony towns 67th among Cs with DRPM of -0.98 (one of the lowest/worst DRPM's for a C). that certainly seems like a large differential between two players/starters on the same team playing similar minutes (towns 2309, dieng 2013, 2nd and 3rd on the team in minutes played)...
towns is the much better defensive rebounder and slightly better shot blocker - for dieng to be the better overall defender he'd have to be much better than towns in other facets of defense...
yet towns' defensive stats for synergy and sportvu (stats.nba.com) are both better than those of dieng:
synergy---PPP allowed---FG% allowed---eFG% allowed
towns---------0.883----------.394------------.462
dieng---------0.904----------.436------------.489
sportvu---dfgm---dfga---FG% allowed
towns-----438-----972-------.451------(332/711 for .467 on 2s)
dieng-----434-----859-------.505------(363/690 for .526 on 3s)
one is people watching/charting games (synergy) the other cameras (sportvu)...
this DRPM calculation is clearly at odds with the actual available data, and in a big way...
so my question is for what possible reason could DRPM list dieng as the much better defender compared to towns? especially considering both players are far from being outliers - they are just 2 of 40 players in the league to have played 2000+ minutes to date...
it purports to measure defense but doesn't - 4 of 5 spurs starters ranking between 20th and 38th in DRPM at their respective positions yet san antonio is the league's top defensive team...
it can be wrong in certain cases, while still being the "best" overall
in your eyes how many wrong certain cases does it take to invalidate a metric's claims?...
espn real plus/minus also shows t-wolves PF gorgui dieng listed 2nd among all PFs in DRPM at 3.46, but t-wolves C karl-anthony towns 67th among Cs with DRPM of -0.98 (one of the lowest/worst DRPM's for a C). that certainly seems like a large differential between two players/starters on the same team playing similar minutes (towns 2309, dieng 2013, 2nd and 3rd on the team in minutes played)...
towns is the much better defensive rebounder and slightly better shot blocker - for dieng to be the better overall defender he'd have to be much better than towns in other facets of defense...
yet towns' defensive stats for synergy and sportvu (stats.nba.com) are both better than those of dieng:
synergy---PPP allowed---FG% allowed---eFG% allowed
towns---------0.883----------.394------------.462
dieng---------0.904----------.436------------.489
sportvu---dfgm---dfga---FG% allowed
towns-----438-----972-------.451------(332/711 for .467 on 2s)
dieng-----434-----859-------.505------(363/690 for .526 on 3s)
one is people watching/charting games (synergy) the other cameras (sportvu)...
this DRPM calculation is clearly at odds with the actual available data, and in a big way...
so my question is for what possible reason could DRPM list dieng as the much better defender compared to towns? especially considering both players are far from being outliers - they are just 2 of 40 players in the league to have played 2000+ minutes to date...
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
It may be that DRPM has a factor for ORPM/mpg, such that a player with weak offense -- who nevertheless gets big minutes -- is assumed to be playing good defense. Otherwise, why do they get minutes?
Towns scores twice as much as Dieng (per 36: 23 vs 11) and gets 37 mpg vs 32 for Dieng.
In (Stl+Blk), Dieng leads Towns by 2.4 to 2.1
Among the top 30 centers in minutes, Towns ranks 22nd in foul rate, 3.0/36
It may be that there's an inverse relation between fouls and defense?
Kawhi Leonard looks like the best offensive SF in the league, but he's just 14th in mpg. Historically, such players are slackers on defense -- if that's all we know about them.
His Stl+Blk total 2.7 per36, down from 3.0 last year and 3.4 before that.
His PF/36 are down from 2.3 to 1.7 in that interval.
DReb are down more drastically -- 6.7 to 5.1
Towns scores twice as much as Dieng (per 36: 23 vs 11) and gets 37 mpg vs 32 for Dieng.
In (Stl+Blk), Dieng leads Towns by 2.4 to 2.1
Among the top 30 centers in minutes, Towns ranks 22nd in foul rate, 3.0/36
It may be that there's an inverse relation between fouls and defense?
Kawhi Leonard looks like the best offensive SF in the league, but he's just 14th in mpg. Historically, such players are slackers on defense -- if that's all we know about them.
His Stl+Blk total 2.7 per36, down from 3.0 last year and 3.4 before that.
His PF/36 are down from 2.3 to 1.7 in that interval.
DReb are down more drastically -- 6.7 to 5.1
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
From the PlayByPlay stats, Towns has:
- 2x the live ball turnovers
- 20% more dead ball turnovers
- half the steals
- 6x goaltends
- slightly worse ON and ON/Off
- 2x the live ball turnovers
- 20% more dead ball turnovers
- half the steals
- 6x goaltends
- slightly worse ON and ON/Off
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
TWolves with Towns on court vs. off 6.5 points worse on defensive efficiency. Dieng 4 points better on. Towns on efg% allowed goes up 3%pts over off. Dieng essentially even. Turnovers forced, with Towns on they are down one vs off. Dieng, one up. Those are very different sets of team numbers. If Towns has good / better individual D numbers, then... theory...perhaps Dieng is the better team / help defender. All player impact is not "local" or captured by box score stats or even player tracking data. 75-85% of the time somebody else's man makes the final use of the possession but the whole team played some role in the total defense of the play leading up to that final action.
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
I am in part playing devil's advocate and surmising why his rating would not be as high this season. It is indeed problematic given the minutes he plays on a defense this good.
synergy - i.e. people actually watching/charting games - lists, of the 9 spurs players with 1000+ minutes played, kawhi leonard's defense as "excellent", along with dedmon, the only 2 of those 9 players they rate that high...
so my question is of the people that actually calculate DRPM, what do they actually see when watching leonard play that makes them think his defense is not excellent?...
This season Leonard on court, team defense 7.5 pts worse per 48 minutes than when he is off. efg% allowed 4%pts worse. Turnovers forced down by 3. Last season: Defense 4.4 pts better when he was on. Efg% 2.5 pts better on vs off. Turnovers forced just 1 worse on vs. off. These are huge, huge changes.
this is team data, not individual player data, no matter how you slice it. it does not tell you a thing about leonard specifically...
BPM has Leonard's DBPM cut in half this season vs. last. Defensive Winshares cut by 1/3rd. So 4 datasets show major decline.
wow - 4 whole datasets? of those 4 datasets, how many people who calculate those datasets have actually watched leonard play on a consistent basis? how about just 10 games start to finish this season (they've played 60+ so far)? i ask as i do not know - but those who have watched/charted him rate his defense excellent...
and again, here is the DRPM for the spurs:
player-------minutes----DRPM
k.leonard----1923--------0.84-----26th among SFs
l.aldridge----1860--------1.45-----21st among PFs
d.green------1492--------1.99------3rd among SGs
p.mills-------1342------(-0.90)
t.parker-----1256------(-0.56)-----38th among PGs
p.gasol------1195--------1.82------20th among Cs
d.lee---------1157-------1.21
j.simmons---1047-------1.76
m.ginobili---1036-------0.63
d.dedmon---0981-------4.37
k.anderson--0719-------2.35
d.bertans----0592-------0.17
anyone who calculates DRPM care to explain how a team with 4 starters ranking 20th to 38th in DRPM at their respective positions is the league's best defensive team?...
What shows the opposite?
synergy - people who actually watch and chart games...
From the PlayByPlay stats, Towns has:
- 2x the live ball turnovers
- 20% more dead ball turnovers
towns gets far more touches on offense than does dieng (stats.nba.com):
towns - 4651 touches (2798 frontcourt), 172 TOs, 3.7 TO/touch (6.1 TO/touch frontcourt)...
dieng - 3095 touches (1584 frontcourt), 83 TOs, 2.7 TO/touch (5.2 TO/touch frontcourt)...
not such a big difference now, correct? either way - all touches or just frontcourt touches, it's just 1 TO more per 100 touches difference, not twice as much...
- half the steals
- 6x goaltends
70 steals to 41, and according to synergy 24 offensive fouls drawn for dieng, just 6 for towns...
is that 60 vs 10 goaltends, or just 6 to 1? makes a difference...
the above 2pt shot defense for towns/dieng shows a 6% difference favor towns (.467 vs .526) - 379 misses assigned to towns, 327 assigned to dieng via sportvu. assuming 3/4 are rebounded by the t-wolves, that's some 284 0ptposs (towns) versus 245 0ptposs (dieng), a difference of 39...
so dieng's 47 favor in steals/off fouls drawn (70-41+24-6) is now down to about 8 (47-39)...
again - not much of a difference...
yet the DRPM has dieng 2nd best among PFs, yet towns DRPM one of the very worst for Cs...
so i'll ask again - when the calculators of DRPM watch both dieng and towns, what do they actually see that makes them think dieng is the much better defender?...
because those who actually watch and chart games (synergy), list data showing towns with the better defensive numbers (PPP allowed, FG% and eFG% allowed)...
synergy - i.e. people actually watching/charting games - lists, of the 9 spurs players with 1000+ minutes played, kawhi leonard's defense as "excellent", along with dedmon, the only 2 of those 9 players they rate that high...
so my question is of the people that actually calculate DRPM, what do they actually see when watching leonard play that makes them think his defense is not excellent?...
This season Leonard on court, team defense 7.5 pts worse per 48 minutes than when he is off. efg% allowed 4%pts worse. Turnovers forced down by 3. Last season: Defense 4.4 pts better when he was on. Efg% 2.5 pts better on vs off. Turnovers forced just 1 worse on vs. off. These are huge, huge changes.
this is team data, not individual player data, no matter how you slice it. it does not tell you a thing about leonard specifically...
BPM has Leonard's DBPM cut in half this season vs. last. Defensive Winshares cut by 1/3rd. So 4 datasets show major decline.
wow - 4 whole datasets? of those 4 datasets, how many people who calculate those datasets have actually watched leonard play on a consistent basis? how about just 10 games start to finish this season (they've played 60+ so far)? i ask as i do not know - but those who have watched/charted him rate his defense excellent...
and again, here is the DRPM for the spurs:
player-------minutes----DRPM
k.leonard----1923--------0.84-----26th among SFs
l.aldridge----1860--------1.45-----21st among PFs
d.green------1492--------1.99------3rd among SGs
p.mills-------1342------(-0.90)
t.parker-----1256------(-0.56)-----38th among PGs
p.gasol------1195--------1.82------20th among Cs
d.lee---------1157-------1.21
j.simmons---1047-------1.76
m.ginobili---1036-------0.63
d.dedmon---0981-------4.37
k.anderson--0719-------2.35
d.bertans----0592-------0.17
anyone who calculates DRPM care to explain how a team with 4 starters ranking 20th to 38th in DRPM at their respective positions is the league's best defensive team?...
What shows the opposite?
synergy - people who actually watch and chart games...
From the PlayByPlay stats, Towns has:
- 2x the live ball turnovers
- 20% more dead ball turnovers
towns gets far more touches on offense than does dieng (stats.nba.com):
towns - 4651 touches (2798 frontcourt), 172 TOs, 3.7 TO/touch (6.1 TO/touch frontcourt)...
dieng - 3095 touches (1584 frontcourt), 83 TOs, 2.7 TO/touch (5.2 TO/touch frontcourt)...
not such a big difference now, correct? either way - all touches or just frontcourt touches, it's just 1 TO more per 100 touches difference, not twice as much...
- half the steals
- 6x goaltends
70 steals to 41, and according to synergy 24 offensive fouls drawn for dieng, just 6 for towns...
is that 60 vs 10 goaltends, or just 6 to 1? makes a difference...
the above 2pt shot defense for towns/dieng shows a 6% difference favor towns (.467 vs .526) - 379 misses assigned to towns, 327 assigned to dieng via sportvu. assuming 3/4 are rebounded by the t-wolves, that's some 284 0ptposs (towns) versus 245 0ptposs (dieng), a difference of 39...
so dieng's 47 favor in steals/off fouls drawn (70-41+24-6) is now down to about 8 (47-39)...
again - not much of a difference...
yet the DRPM has dieng 2nd best among PFs, yet towns DRPM one of the very worst for Cs...
so i'll ask again - when the calculators of DRPM watch both dieng and towns, what do they actually see that makes them think dieng is the much better defender?...
because those who actually watch and chart games (synergy), list data showing towns with the better defensive numbers (PPP allowed, FG% and eFG% allowed)...
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
So you say team data in the form of team performance with vs. without a player does not tell you anything "specifically", but overall team data with and WITHOUT a player is so important & telling (despite being the most unspecific possible) that you mention it 7 times to support Leonard? Gotcha...
Here is some other data to consider...
Spurs starting lineup is only 14th best on defensive performance for lineups used over 250 minutes.
The positive DRPM is divided 10 ways on Spurs. On average team it is split just a tiny bit over 7 ways.
Both these things will affect the ranking of Spurs starters relative to other team players.
Putting aside the without the player data, Spurs with Leonard on court (only) this season ranks 2nd lowest of 14 current team players, better only than the player who played by far the least. Last season, Leonard had the 2nd best mark of the team. The team data with him went from 2nd best to 2nd worst and he hasn't changed? You can believe that but it seems very, very unlikely to me. It seems far more likely to me that his defensive impact has diminished this season than that it has stayed the same. The raw on / off data, the raw on data, RPM, BPM and WinShares per 48 all report big declines in positive defensive impact this season.
Here is some other data to consider...
Spurs starting lineup is only 14th best on defensive performance for lineups used over 250 minutes.
The positive DRPM is divided 10 ways on Spurs. On average team it is split just a tiny bit over 7 ways.
Both these things will affect the ranking of Spurs starters relative to other team players.
Putting aside the without the player data, Spurs with Leonard on court (only) this season ranks 2nd lowest of 14 current team players, better only than the player who played by far the least. Last season, Leonard had the 2nd best mark of the team. The team data with him went from 2nd best to 2nd worst and he hasn't changed? You can believe that but it seems very, very unlikely to me. It seems far more likely to me that his defensive impact has diminished this season than that it has stayed the same. The raw on / off data, the raw on data, RPM, BPM and WinShares per 48 all report big declines in positive defensive impact this season.
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
So you say team data in the form of team performance with vs. without a player does not tell you anything "specifically", but overall team data with and WITHOUT a player is so important & telling that you mention it 7 times to support Leonard? Gotcha...
overall team data includes data on a player - leonard was on the floor for 63% of the spurs floor time...
team data with that player on the floor includes data on that player...
team data without a player on the floor tells you nothing specifically about that player. you know - he wasn't on the floor. anything you try to say about a player when not on the floor is completely inferred...
got that?...
the synergy data - data charted by people who watch games - says in the time leonard played his defense was excellent. they watched all his games, so i'll take their word for their data unless i can find primary data that conflicts with it...
but a calculation that downgrades that observing/charting based on what happened when he did not play somehow delegitimizes that?...
leonard was on the floor for close to 2/3 of the spurs floor time. you're trying to infer what he did during that time based on what happened the bit more than 1/3 of the time he was not on the floor - on a sample size just 1/2 the sample size of leonard's playing time...
good luck with that...
Spurs starting lineup is only 14th best on defensive performance for lineups used over 250 minutes.
yet the spurs were best in the league in defense. was leonard on the floor only for that lineup? i mean he's played 1923 minutes to date...
The positive DRPM is divided 10 ways on Spurs.
and?...
you care to take a stab at explaining how a team's starting C is listed 20th in DRPM among Cs, staring PF 21st among PFs, starting SF 26th among SFs, and starting PG 38th among PGs in DRPM - yet the team is best in the league on defense?...
again - good luck with that...
overall team data includes data on a player - leonard was on the floor for 63% of the spurs floor time...
team data with that player on the floor includes data on that player...
team data without a player on the floor tells you nothing specifically about that player. you know - he wasn't on the floor. anything you try to say about a player when not on the floor is completely inferred...
got that?...
the synergy data - data charted by people who watch games - says in the time leonard played his defense was excellent. they watched all his games, so i'll take their word for their data unless i can find primary data that conflicts with it...
but a calculation that downgrades that observing/charting based on what happened when he did not play somehow delegitimizes that?...
leonard was on the floor for close to 2/3 of the spurs floor time. you're trying to infer what he did during that time based on what happened the bit more than 1/3 of the time he was not on the floor - on a sample size just 1/2 the sample size of leonard's playing time...
good luck with that...
Spurs starting lineup is only 14th best on defensive performance for lineups used over 250 minutes.
yet the spurs were best in the league in defense. was leonard on the floor only for that lineup? i mean he's played 1923 minutes to date...
The positive DRPM is divided 10 ways on Spurs.
and?...
you care to take a stab at explaining how a team's starting C is listed 20th in DRPM among Cs, staring PF 21st among PFs, starting SF 26th among SFs, and starting PG 38th among PGs in DRPM - yet the team is best in the league on defense?...
again - good luck with that...
Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(
Try to slant and ignore what I said all you want and regurgitate your talking points (using without data within overall data while attacking other use of without data for contrast AND ignoring the data that doesn't use it all) but I am satisfied with what I said and am probably done.
"RPM" doesn't say anything about scouting, that is your projection. It presents its findings and that's it.
"RPM" doesn't say anything about scouting, that is your projection. It presents its findings and that's it.