Suns last season were highest in long 2 attempts (10-23 ft). Celtics barely not the lowest. Warriors among the lowest group. Heat pretty high. Nuggets, Lakers, Bucks and Sixers toward middle. Griz, low.
Suns 10th on fg% from 10-16 ft and 16-23 ft. Sixers might be best. Nuggets a bit below average as were Lakers and Griz. Celtics about average. Warriors and Bucks slightly above.
Who will change significantly and it what ways?
2023-24 Title contenders
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
On offensive efficiency last regular season:
Celtics were 2nd and improved 5 spots over previous season.
Sixers were 4th and improved 8 spots.
Nuggets were 5th and improved 1 spot.
Warriors were 9th and improved 8 spots.
Lakers were 20th, improving 3 spots.
Suns 15th, declining 11 spots.
Bucks 12th, declining 9 spots.
Heat, 25th, declining 15 spots.
2 of these last 4 fired Coaches. 2 teams did not even think about it, probably because of better than expected playoffs advancement.
Celtics were 2nd and improved 5 spots over previous season.
Sixers were 4th and improved 8 spots.
Nuggets were 5th and improved 1 spot.
Warriors were 9th and improved 8 spots.
Lakers were 20th, improving 3 spots.
Suns 15th, declining 11 spots.
Bucks 12th, declining 9 spots.
Heat, 25th, declining 15 spots.
2 of these last 4 fired Coaches. 2 teams did not even think about it, probably because of better than expected playoffs advancement.
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
On defensive efficiency last regular season:
Celtics were 3rd and declined 1 spot over previous season.
Sixers were 9th and improved 3 spots.
Nuggets were 15th and declined 1 spot.
Warriors were 9th and declined 8 spots.
Lakers were 20th, declining 1 spot.
Suns 15th, declining 12 spots.
Bucks 12th, improving 2 spots.
Heat, 8th, declining 3 spots.
Sixers, only team in group to improve on both. Rivers fired because of playoffs disappoinrment.
Suns and Heat declined on both.
Will Heat fall back further on both? Will Suns' hoped for gains on offense and defense be big or not?
It is straightforward to extract this information but have you seen it summarized elsewhere?
Celtics were 3rd and declined 1 spot over previous season.
Sixers were 9th and improved 3 spots.
Nuggets were 15th and declined 1 spot.
Warriors were 9th and declined 8 spots.
Lakers were 20th, declining 1 spot.
Suns 15th, declining 12 spots.
Bucks 12th, improving 2 spots.
Heat, 8th, declining 3 spots.
Sixers, only team in group to improve on both. Rivers fired because of playoffs disappoinrment.
Suns and Heat declined on both.
Will Heat fall back further on both? Will Suns' hoped for gains on offense and defense be big or not?
It is straightforward to extract this information but have you seen it summarized elsewhere?
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
Top 4 still the same as of late August and clearly separated from lower.
I don't buy Suns as having 3rd or 4th best chance.
I wonder if Bucks are still 4 but I am a bit more hesitant to say that yet.
I'd give the Nuggets a somewhat bigger lead over the others.
Thunder variously pegged at 60 to 100 to 1 odds. Up moderately in some books but no better than 16th. Pelicans given twice the chance by BetUS.
I don't buy Suns as having 3rd or 4th best chance.
I wonder if Bucks are still 4 but I am a bit more hesitant to say that yet.
I'd give the Nuggets a somewhat bigger lead over the others.
Thunder variously pegged at 60 to 100 to 1 odds. Up moderately in some books but no better than 16th. Pelicans given twice the chance by BetUS.
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
Currently Warriors have just 3 guys, 6-9 or above and only one over 6-10. Just 1 over 230 pounds (if Draymond's listed weight is to be believed).
They are said to be looking for a center.
Will they have enough size? Time will eventually tell. Against the Lakers, the defense and rebounding were not the biggest issues overall. The shooting was a bit below the Lakers and getting to the ft line was incredibly light. The latter could be a different version of the size issue.
They are said to be looking for a center.
Will they have enough size? Time will eventually tell. Against the Lakers, the defense and rebounding were not the biggest issues overall. The shooting was a bit below the Lakers and getting to the ft line was incredibly light. The latter could be a different version of the size issue.
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
I think the Heat are only team in top 8 that does not have 2 proven high level 3 pt specialists to put with their scoring star. Herro and Robinson are supposed to be that but Robinson wasn't last season.
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
Porzingis' career offensive rating against Denver is tied for his 7th worst against. The defensive rating against Denver is the 2nd worst. Of course these ratings are affected by rest of team, but still...
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
Bucks year to year slippage heavily influenced by activity at both free throw lines and steals. Giannis at near career low on ft%.
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
Nuggets repeat? Lots can happen but that seems the most likely possibility.
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
Nuggets 10 most used playoff lineups last season played about 84% of total minutes and all but 2 were positive. Lakers 10 most used only had 3 negatives but also accounted for just 61% of minutes.
Heat, just 2 negatives and used for 83% of minutes. Celtics, 6 of 10 negative and used 67% of minutes.
The 2 with the clearly greater and better performing lineup concentration won.
Including 2022 playoffs and it is 3 of 4 conference finalists to advance had 70+% of time in 10 most used lineups and more than opponent. (Kerr / GSW was the exception.) Include 2021 playoffs and it is 5 of 6 with more concentration than the loser.
One can rationalize losing team wanting / needing to search more but greater searching did not payoff for the losers.
Compared to regular season, the Nuggets used biggest lineup more than twice as much as a % as in regular season and 10th biggest lineup more than 3 times as much.
If you want to maximize playoff performance or regular season performance, greater lineup concentration is likely to help.
If you don't concentrate as much and as well as the opponent, you are more likely to lose. One exception found but I would recommend against this attitude and path.
Everybody know what they did and how they compare? I kinda doubt it. Especially the Coaches. But there it is.
Heat, just 2 negatives and used for 83% of minutes. Celtics, 6 of 10 negative and used 67% of minutes.
The 2 with the clearly greater and better performing lineup concentration won.
Including 2022 playoffs and it is 3 of 4 conference finalists to advance had 70+% of time in 10 most used lineups and more than opponent. (Kerr / GSW was the exception.) Include 2021 playoffs and it is 5 of 6 with more concentration than the loser.
One can rationalize losing team wanting / needing to search more but greater searching did not payoff for the losers.
Compared to regular season, the Nuggets used biggest lineup more than twice as much as a % as in regular season and 10th biggest lineup more than 3 times as much.
If you want to maximize playoff performance or regular season performance, greater lineup concentration is likely to help.
If you don't concentrate as much and as well as the opponent, you are more likely to lose. One exception found but I would recommend against this attitude and path.
Everybody know what they did and how they compare? I kinda doubt it. Especially the Coaches. But there it is.
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
Thought the betting line moved too far up for Bucks after Lillard trade. Haven't seen after Holiday trade but expect similar. The over-reactions probably make sense for the books though, given presumed bettor reactions.
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
2/3rds of presumed Bucks starting lineup net plus minus by RAPM factors is from rebounding. Looking overall, 2/3rds is also offense. The big weakness was negative impact on opponent turnovers.
Celtics presumed starters are about even on offense and defensive impacts. 2/3rds of their positives come from shooting and shot defense. They don't have as big a weakness but it is also opponent turnovers. With changes at PG, the turnover data is perhaps outdated.
Match against each other and others.
Against each other Celtics appear to have the power to win own shooting and opponent Bucks rule the boards. Each may reduce the other at getting points from ft line.
Of course all lineups and matchups matter, but it starts as above with starters.
Celtics presumed starters are about even on offense and defensive impacts. 2/3rds of their positives come from shooting and shot defense. They don't have as big a weakness but it is also opponent turnovers. With changes at PG, the turnover data is perhaps outdated.
Match against each other and others.
Against each other Celtics appear to have the power to win own shooting and opponent Bucks rule the boards. Each may reduce the other at getting points from ft line.
Of course all lineups and matchups matter, but it starts as above with starters.
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
Thunder odds range down a bit to 70 to 100 to 1.
Mavs ridiculously over-rated imo at 18 to 25 to 1.
Griz at 25-30 to 1 are under-rated.
Suns at 6 to 1? Not to me. More like 15 to 25 to 1.
Mavs ridiculously over-rated imo at 18 to 25 to 1.
Griz at 25-30 to 1 are under-rated.
Suns at 6 to 1? Not to me. More like 15 to 25 to 1.
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
Spoelstra was runaway pick for best coach in GM Survey.
That is supported by top lineup management
10 of 12 biggest regular season 5 mans positive, though none over 4 minutes per game for season. 8 biggest rs pairs positive. 6 biggest playoff lineups positive. 8 of 10 biggest playoff pairs positive.
That is squeezing out results at the top. Probably issues in the dinks. Almost certainly could have been better with more lineup concentration.
That is supported by top lineup management
10 of 12 biggest regular season 5 mans positive, though none over 4 minutes per game for season. 8 biggest rs pairs positive. 6 biggest playoff lineups positive. 8 of 10 biggest playoff pairs positive.
That is squeezing out results at the top. Probably issues in the dinks. Almost certainly could have been better with more lineup concentration.
Re: 2023-24 Title contenders
Heat lineup concentration was much higher in playoffs, with a 10 minute / game leader and several in the 2-4 range. Not super concentrated, just barely decent in playoffs.
Recall the Nuggets had a 20+ min. / gm. playoff lineup. Imo, that should be common.
Celtics 22 min / gm, Sixers 15, Suns 9, Warriors 6, Bucks less than 6...
Recall the Nuggets had a 20+ min. / gm. playoff lineup. Imo, that should be common.
Celtics 22 min / gm, Sixers 15, Suns 9, Warriors 6, Bucks less than 6...