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Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:27 pm
by Crow
OK, thanks. I forgot where GmBPM was.
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2024 5:01 pm
by Mike G
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... otals.html
It's a rout!
Code: Select all
eWin+ per36 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
2.57 Shai G-A OKC .634 34.9 5.7 5.2 3.01 .610 30.4 4.8 4.5 2.28
2.05 A Şengün Hou .582 23.7 10.1 4.5 2.04 .588 16.5 11.7 3.8 1.43
1.94 S Barnes Tor .563 18.5 8.4 4.3 1.51 .518 13.9 7.3 4.2 .98
1.60 T Maxey Phl .576 24.0 3.4 4.9 1.69 .597 21.4 3.4 3.2 1.25
1.57 V Williams Mem .602 11.8 7.9 2.4 .80 .366 6.7 4.8 1.1 .02
1.54 C Sexton Uta .599 23.7 3.9 4.8 1.50 .604 19.8 3.3 3.4 .92
1.50 Karl-A Towns Min .630 27.2 10.1 2.7 2.02 .607 21.8 9.0 4.2 1.59
1.47 P Banchero Orl .529 21.7 8.0 4.1 1.55 .517 18.4 7.8 3.2 1.16
1.45 Jal Williams OKC .615 21.4 4.3 3.9 1.43 .594 15.6 5.2 3.2 .97
1.40 A Edwards Min .575 27.4 5.7 4.4 1.83 .555 22.3 5.9 3.6 1.44
eWin+ per36 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.37 Coby White Chi .580 18.1 4.8 4.0 1.03 .568 13.8 4.4 3.4 .69
1.34 DiVincenzo NYK .608 18.8 5.1 2.8 1.27 GSW .589 11.8 6.1 3.8 .75
1.25 F Wagner Orl .556 20.8 6.9 3.5 1.49 .581 19.1 4.8 3.1 1.07
1.23 J Brunson NYK .588 27.6 4.2 5.2 1.93 .587 23.9 3.8 5.4 1.61
1.19 D Robinson Mia .607 16.5 3.3 3.0 .74 .530 12.1 3.8 2.0 .31
1.11 A Caruso Chi .625 13.6 4.9 2.8 .87 .580 8.1 4.6 3.5 .42
1.11 J Walker Por .560 11.7 10.8 1.1 .90 .490 9.5 7.6 1.6 .37
1.06 D Schröder Tor .557 14.3 3.1 5.3 .80 LAL .535 13.2 2.9 4.3 .48
1.02 T Haliburton Ind .619 23.3 4.7 9.4 2.09 .616 20.6 3.9 8.9 1.71
.99 Jab. Smith Hou .576 14.2 9.7 1.3 1.02 .508 11.9 8.7 1.2 .70
What disqualifies Shai from taking this award?
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2024 6:08 pm
by Crow
Voter awareness, tradition.
V Williams got large opportunity in yr 2 he didn't in yr 1.
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:43 pm
by Mike G
Season at 64%
Players whose productions are down but have gotten minutes. The eWin deficit may be doubled to estimate how many more wins their team might have now, given the same minutes at last season's rates.
Code: Select all
eWin+ per36 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-1.99 D Lillard Mil .586 24.3 4.3 5.2 1.56 Por .630 30.4 4.9 6.0 2.17
-1.82 J Holiday Bos .580 14.7 6.2 4.1 .89 Mil .580 20.6 5.4 6.9 1.48
-1.69 C Wood LAL .560 12.3 10.2 1.4 .76 Dal .612 22.1 10.5 2.2 1.77
-1.62 J Poole Was .509 15.2 2.6 3.0 .48 GSW .564 22.0 3.3 4.3 1.05
-1.58 B Lopez Mil .599 13.8 6.3 1.4 .85 .623 19.0 7.6 1.3 1.37
-1.32 D Ayton Por .568 14.3 12.4 1.4 1.19 Phx .609 21.2 12.1 1.7 1.80
-1.30 J Jackson Mem .550 23.3 6.3 1.9 1.44 .602 23.1 8.4 1.0 1.89
-1.26 A Gordon Den .582 15.3 7.7 2.6 1.01 .604 19.0 8.3 2.9 1.46
-1.25 A Wiggins GSW .513 13.6 5.9 1.6 .57 .560 17.1 5.6 2.1 1.10
-1.21 K Thompson GSW .550 17.5 4.1 2.0 .75 .572 21.6 4.5 2.1 1.20
eWin+ per36 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-1.16 G Trent Tor .543 13.3 2.9 1.4 .46 .553 17.7 3.1 1.5 .94
-1.13 J Butler Mia .614 23.9 6.0 4.0 1.77 .629 25.3 6.9 5.0 2.24
-1.05 K Dunn Uta .548 9.3 6.0 6.2 .74 .598 16.8 6.2 6.2 1.41
-1.01 O Okongwu Atl .665 13.3 9.3 1.3 .94 .665 14.9 11.1 1.2 1.34
-.98 St Curry GSW .630 31.0 4.9 3.9 1.90 .647 30.4 6.4 5.2 2.24
-.97 A Davis LAL .604 24.5 12.3 2.9 2.26 .613 26.6 13.1 2.2 2.56
-.97 B Hield Ind .584 14.4 4.6 2.6 .71 .610 17.8 5.8 2.6 1.09
-.93 D DeRozan Chi .559 20.6 4.1 3.9 1.34 .580 23.6 4.7 4.1 1.61
-.88 B Portis Mil .568 16.2 10.2 1.1 1.24 .570 18.3 12.7 1.7 1.61
-.86 N Powell LAC .628 18.9 3.7 1.1 .85 .600 22.4 4.1 2.1 1.21
-.86 J Harden LAC .625 19.3 5.5 6.8 1.42 Phl .595 20.3 6.5 9.0 1.72
-.86 Dinwiddie Brk .522 13.0 3.9 5.4 .74 .567 16.8 3.7 5.8 1.05
Centers Lopez and JJackson were already at the bottom end of rebounding, for players with their size and shotblocking. They've managed to do even less of that job this season.
Shai's all-over improvement has gotten his team about 5 wins more than expected.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
2.56 Shai G-A OKC .635 35.2 5.7 5.3 2.95 .610 30.4 4.8 4.5 2.28
2.03 A Şengün Hou .581 24.0 10.4 4.4 1.99 .588 16.5 11.7 3.8 1.43
1.93 S Barnes Tor .564 18.9 8.3 4.4 1.45 .518 13.9 7.3 4.2 .98
1.69 F Wagner Orl .568 22.6 6.8 3.5 1.57 .581 19.1 4.8 3.1 1.07
1.63 DiVincenzo NYK .611 20.2 5.0 2.8 1.32 GSW .589 11.8 6.1 3.8 .75
1.55 A Edwards Min .576 28.4 5.7 4.4 1.84 .555 22.3 5.9 3.6 1.44
1.50 C Sexton Uta .597 24.4 3.9 4.9 1.45 .604 19.8 3.3 3.4 .92
1.50 C White Chi .580 18.9 4.8 4.0 1.03 .568 13.8 4.4 3.4 .69
1.50 P Banchero Orl .530 22.0 7.9 4.2 1.52 .517 18.4 7.8 3.2 1.16
1.47 K-A Towns Min .626 27.9 9.8 2.6 1.98 .607 21.8 9.0 4.2 1.59
eW+ per36 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.43 Jal Williams OKC .613 21.9 4.4 3.9 1.40 .594 15.6 5.2 3.2 .97
1.36 T Maxey Phl .567 23.8 3.5 4.8 1.59 .597 21.4 3.4 3.2 1.25
1.29 J Brunson NYK .588 28.4 4.2 5.2 1.92 .587 23.9 3.8 5.4 1.61
1.26 D Robinson Mia .605 17.2 3.2 3.0 .75 .530 12.1 3.8 2.0 .31
1.18 J Kuminga GSW .593 20.9 6.7 1.9 1.23 .588 15.6 5.9 2.5 .81
1.13 J Collins Uta .597 17.0 11.0 1.0 1.26 Atl .585 14.2 7.9 1.1 .89
1.11 J Walker Por .549 11.6 10.7 1.0 .84 .490 9.5 7.6 1.6 .37
1.09 A Caruso Chi .619 13.3 5.2 2.9 .81 .580 8.1 4.6 3.5 .42
.99 J Allen Cle .660 21.1 12.8 2.5 1.89 .658 17.3 11.7 1.6 1.58
.99 Hartenstein NYK .636 10.7 12.9 2.2 1.18 .560 8.2 11.9 1.8 .84
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 12:32 am
by Mike G
Season at 76%
Code: Select all
eWin+ per36 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
2.54 Shai G-A OKC .633 33.2 5.6 5.4 2.84 .610 30.4 4.8 4.5 2.28
2.17 A Sengun Hou .577 22.5 10.5 4.5 1.94 .588 16.5 11.7 3.8 1.43
1.98 A Edwards Min .575 27.8 5.7 4.5 1.87 .555 22.3 5.9 3.6 1.44
1.88 Jal Williams OKC .618 21.8 4.4 4.1 1.45 .594 15.6 5.2 3.2 .97
1.85 DiVincenzo NYK .594 19.3 5.1 2.9 1.28 GSW .589 11.8 6.1 3.8 .75
1.83 J Collins Uta .599 16.8 11.6 1.2 1.40 Atl .585 14.2 7.9 1.1 .89
1.77 S Barnes Tor .558 17.8 8.5 4.7 1.37 .518 13.9 7.3 4.2 .98
1.75 D Robinson Mia .618 17.1 3.2 3.2 .81 .530 12.1 3.8 2.0 .31
1.64 C Sexton Uta .603 23.3 3.8 5.1 1.40 .604 19.8 3.3 3.4 .92
1.62 F Wagner Orl .569 21.3 6.9 3.6 1.47 .581 19.1 4.8 3.1 1.07
eWin+ per36 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.61 J Kuminga GSW .587 20.1 6.9 2.3 1.28 .588 15.6 5.9 2.5 .81
1.60 Ja Walker Por .542 11.6 11.1 1.1 .96 .490 9.5 7.6 1.6 .37
1.54 C White Chi .579 18.2 4.8 4.2 .99 .568 13.8 4.4 3.4 .69
1.54 K-A Towns Min .618 26.3 9.7 2.8 1.95 .607 21.8 9.0 4.2 1.59
1.52 P Banchero Orl .539 21.8 8.0 4.5 1.48 .517 18.4 7.8 3.2 1.16
1.41 Ja Smith Hou .556 13.9 9.7 1.3 1.05 .508 11.9 8.7 1.2 .70
1.25 J Duren Det .646 15.7 14.7 2.3 1.53 .642 12.5 12.8 1.3 1.13
1.22 T Maxey Phl .567 22.9 3.6 4.9 1.51 .597 21.4 3.4 3.2 1.25
1.21 A Caruso Chi .597 12.1 5.1 3.0 .79 .580 8.1 4.6 3.5 .42
1.20 Hartenstein NYK .627 10.1 12.9 2.6 1.23 .560 8.2 11.9 1.8 .84
Jalen Brunson was #13 in the previous installment, and he's way gone since. How his last 6 games compare to his previous 50:
Code: Select all
G mpg TS% ORb DRb TRb Ast% Stl% TO% Usg% ORt DRt
50 35.8 .597 1.8 10.2 6.0 30.2 1.3 9.1 30.3 125 117
6 37.9 .555 1.4 6.3 3.8 42.3 1.6 14.5 35.9 115 121
Carrying the Knicks, as almost their only true starter, hasn't done him very well.
Early leader Scottie Barnes has had distinct halves of the season. Showing also last year:
Code: Select all
Gms ts% ORb DRb TRb Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% ORt DRt BPM
2023 .524 7.1 15.2 10.8 20.2 1.5 2.2 12.0 113 115 0.4
2024
1-30 .587 8.3 21.6 14.9 26.2 2.1 3.5 12.7 118 112 6.9
31-60 .544 6.1 16.3 11.1 26.2 1.4 3.8 14.4 110 120 0.4
As a rookie, he was mostly PF, last year mostly SF, this year equally SG/SF/PF w a few minutes at C.
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 2:50 pm
by Mike G
Corroboration from other summary stats. Last 4 columns are (mostly)
improvements from last season.
Same 20, same order as in previous post:
Code: Select all
. player tm min e484 PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM
Shai G-A OKC 2138 2.84 30.7 .296 10.0 .56 3.5 .070 2.7
Alp Sengun Hou 2016 1.94 22.1 .165 4.8 .50 2.4 .050 3.4
Ant Edwards Min 2138 1.87 19.6 .132 3.5 .43 2.2 .068 2.5
Jal Williams OKC 1820 1.45 18.7 .155 1.9 .48 3.1 .036 1.6
D DiVincenzo NYK 1638 1.28 16.2 .133 3.4 GSW .53 3.4 .027 2.7
John Collins Uta 1663 1.40 16.5 .103 -1.5 Atl .51 2.9 .008 -0.2
Sco Barnes Tor 2094 1.37 19.4 .106 3.7 .38 3.9 .016 3.3
Dun Robinson Mia 1639 .81 12.8 .097 -0.5 .50 5.0 .062 4.5
Col Sexton Uta 1590 1.40 20.4 .148 2.4 .47 4.5 .043 3.7
Franz Wagner Orl 1855 1.47 17.4 .121 1.2 .40 1.5 .022 1.3
. improved tm min e484 PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM
Jon Kuminga GSW 1571 1.28 17.0 .113 -0.3 .47 3.7 .029 1.4
Jab Walker Por 1260 .96 13.3 .084 -3.4 .59 3.7 .069 2.7
Coby White Chi 2320 .99 15.3 .095 0.2 .29 2.8 .008 1.0
Karl-A Towns Min 1969 1.95 19.1 .158 2.8 .35 0.3 .025 -0.2
Pao Banchero Orl 2161 1.48 17.7 .091 1.5 .32 2.8 .044 3.0
Jabari Smith Hou 1861 1.05 13.4 .108 -0.6 .35 2.2 .071 3.1
Jalen Duren Det 1415 1.53 18.6 .130 0.1 .40 1.3 .001 0.9
Tyrese Maxey Phl 2056 1.51 19.9 .145 3.0 .26 2.9 .017 2.4
Alex Caruso Chi 1476 .79 14.0 .111 2.2 .37 2.5 .002 1.1
Hartenstein NYK 1425 1.23 17.3 .183 2.2 .39 3.1 .047 2.5
BPM doesn't think John Collins and KAT are improved over last year.
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 4:19 pm
by Crow
Low assists are holding the improved overall Jabari Walker to replacement level. He is low in group on other metrics too but are his ratings replacement level on them? Not sure that can be said fully. Probably not.
Always felt BPM over penalized low assists for players who don't have it as a significant role. Is that criteria rewarded / penalized by position? Similar to with defensive rebounds or less so? With the way assists are handed out, often for nothing special passes, often for really big credit, somebody is going to get credit about 70% of time for often nothing special pass that somebody is probably going to do. And all the possible assists, routine or strong, get zero, even in a background way. Because THAT potential assist pass to a guy who actually got the shot and made it becomes special in the eyes of the metric as prescribed. Hypothetical ly, assists as a ratio of potential assists or total passes of a player or the lineup or team could be considered is crediting (and debiting).
Is by position crediting going to be more or less pronounced in new BPM? Is new BPM coming for next season? Is it agreed that it is coming to BRef, replacing previous version?
Banchero improves from previously average. Because of a few things but probably heavily for big move up on assist-making. 18th biggest improvement here on e484, 5th biggest on BPM. About 12th on PER. 9th on WS48.
A Edwards at +3.5. Nice but not stratospheric. SGA's is stratospheric based mainly on prior advancement.
Big move for D Robinson, but not quite up to league average. Heat hold on to him but try to take advantage of improvement for trade? It could go either way. It may or may not matter much.
Kuminga, modest improvement mainly based on usage increase. Slight decline in modest assist rate probably holding his increase down. 9th biggest increase on e484, just 14th on BPM. 11th biggest on WS48. PER loves and overrated usage, absolutely and compared to other metrics, so tied for 3rd biggest increase there.
With player tracking, contested defensive rebounds could get more credit than for uncontested rebounds. I don't know of a metric doing that, but they could. All are probably still diminishing credit for all defensive rebounds based on most but not all being uncontested something that somebody is going to do. Or at least that is the logic sold and accepted
conventionally for this one and only specific stat.
Variation in sensitivities to stat change among metrics is a good argument for metric comparison, as presented here, or metric blending, as sometimes done here and elsewhere, or metric review and / or replacement.
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 7:00 pm
by Mike G
... contested defensive rebounds could get more credit...
If a player or players are properly blocking out the opponent, a rebound may be viewed as "uncontested". However, I don't see why failure to do part 1 of the job should make part 2 seem more valuable.
The logic of claiming something like "Yes you got 10 rebounds, but half of those could have gone to someone else on our team" is in the same league as: "I got 10 rebounds, but I could have gotten 15 if I wanted". So 10 = 10 in every real sense.
Similar pseudo-arguments are made that "someone else" could have made the assist or the shot; and yet some are better than others, and coaches and (most) teammates will prefer the more competent player does each job as opportunity allows.
PER doesn't so much over-value "usage" as it entirely disregards defense. A huge GameScore in a 150-140 game -- or high PER for a team that allows 125 ppg -- doesn't have the real impact as the same number in a more defensive game or season.
I may give PER equal weight, though, when it comes to awards and popular perception, and to keep it simple.
When you make good passes and maintain position for rebounding, you tend to get the numbers you deserve.
If you're not sensible with shot selection and passing and playing D, you probably don't get the minutes a more diligent player gets with similar 'skills'.
Check these 4 stats against player min/G. Just players who last year got 500+ minutes, dividing teams into equal thirds based on their wins last year. Here are the correlations:
Code: Select all
wins '23 e484 PER WS/48 BPM
45 - 58 .56 .53 .40 .63
40 - 44 .55 .55 .31 .56
17 - 38 .55 .51 .27 .54
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 11:18 pm
by Crow
Those correlations of metrics to minutes are only moderate and only more than mildly better for good teams on half the metrics. Would want to compare to the conceptually comprehensive RAPM. Even then, I think it is quite possible to question / critque the degree of optimization Coaches are achieving with their minute (and lineup) choices. All metric scores should be adjusted based on quality of teammates on court and opponents but only RAPM does that comprehensively. Ewins sonewhat does a game level version of half that but not the full opponent quality question for season or by who is on court play by play for each person and lineup in and against.
PER over-values "usage" and disregards shot defense including help defense. And under-values actual rebounding and ignores box out data. (Tracking data for that and other things is available for any metric builder that wants to do the work to include / not ignore it.)
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2024 3:19 am
by Mike G
Correlations with minutes from last year's 1st round of playoffs:
Code: Select all
avg tm W L PER WS/48 BPM e484
.55 Phl 4 0 .42 .39 .74 .64
.41 Brk 0 4 .39 .29 .39 .56
.36 NYK 4 1 .40 .19 .25 .59
.63 Cle 1 4 .76 .36 .61 .80
.21 Mia 4 1 .27 .07 .18 .34
.43 Mil 1 4 .55 .38 .26 .54
.06 Bos 4 1 .24 -.50 -.22 .73
.23 Atl 1 4 .29 .11 .07 .43
avg tm W L PER WS/48 BPM e484
.63 Phx 4 1 .68 .54 .64 .69
.30 LAC 1 4 .34 .11 .40 .34
.62 Den 4 1 .64 .54 .56 .75
.69 Min 1 4 .73 .64 .58 .81
.78 LAL 4 2 .82 .69 .74 .88
.33 Mem 2 4 .45 .08 .12 .69
.29 GSW 4 3 .29 .10 .19 .57
.43 Sac 3 4 .57 -.07 .58 .63
Includes those who got at least 5 min per team game. Exception: Kawhi (LAC), best player but 9th in minutes due to early injury; excluded from sample.
And later rounds;
Code: Select all
avg tm W L PER WS/48 BPM e484
.57 Mia 4 2 .60 .42 .57 .71
.64 NYK 2 4 .63 .60 .60 .73
.60 Bos 4 3 .73 .35 .52 .80
.62 Phl 3 4 .60 .52 .72 .63
.66 Den 4 2 .68 .62 .67 .68
.81 Phx 2 4 .84 .71 .80 .89
.67 LAL 4 2 .69 .59 .58 .80
.10 GSW 2 4 .03 -.15 .17 .35
avg tm W L PER WS/48 BPM e484
.33 Mia 4 3 .37 .17 .25 .54
.26 Bos 3 4 .23 -.04 .22 .63
.89 Den 4 0 .92 .88 .92 .84
.81 LAL 0 4 .85 .77 .79 .85
.27 Den 4 1 .33 .02 .15 .59
.23 Mia 1 4 .22 -.14 .21 .64
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2024 6:33 am
by Crow
So Celtics correlation of minutes to performance in 1st round was the absolute lowest by BPM but 5th highest by e484?
Not sure what to make of that, other than maybe don't go by one metric.
Metrics are however fairly in agreement than Heat correlation of minutes to performance was quite poor / limited and that 4 teams in the west were pretty highly correlated relatively speaking.
In later rounds, there probably was higher correlation and the Nuggets were very highly optimized in 3rd round. Warriors were ridiculously low in second round. In the finals, the correlations were generally pretty bad for both.
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:21 pm
by DSMok1
Correlations between BPM and playing time are mostly irrelevant at the coaching level. Fit matters far more than BPM. BPM is generic across all contexts the player finds themselves in. If your five highest BPM players are all big, your best lineup is not to play all bigs. Even if the five highest BPM's come across five different positions, your best lineup is not necessarily to play those five together. Fit and skill set optimization matters more.
Note that those things have to be assessed by the coach and by viewing how the lineup works together; seeing things like the quality of shots that are obtained.
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2024 3:30 pm
by Mike G
DSMok1 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:21 pm
Correlations between BPM and playing time are mostly irrelevant at the coaching level. Fit matters far more than BPM. ...If your five highest BPM players are all big, your best lineup is not to play all bigs. ...
These points are likely true across all these summary stats. Hence, a team may have high or low correlations across all (or most) of these 4 measures.
As I am presently refining these playoff correlations, it's apparent I should be using player min/G rather than total minutes. Several key players missed some games -- Kawhi, Giannis, Paul ... -- and thus are out of order in the minutes allocation.
This postseason I will try to keep mpg in my summaries.
It's both vital and kind of arbitrary whether to count the top 7 or top 11 players in a correlation study. So I am now generating lines for top-5 thru top-11; deleting those with fewer than 5 mpg; and averaging the lines.
In this way, the bottom line -- generally a player going 5-10 mpg -- gets counted one time, the next one up 2 times, etc. Starting 5's get counted the most.
I was going to just edit my previous post, but I will re-submit here.
Round 1 of 2023 playoffs:
Code: Select all
avg tm W L PER WS/48 BPM e484
.46 Phl 4 0 .41 .36 .57 .52
.35 Brk 0 4 .42 .09 .29 .60
.33 NYK 4 1 .32 .21 .33 .46
.49 Cle 1 4 .67 .12 .51 .68
.40 Mia 4 1 .49 .27 .35 .50
.25 Mil 1 4 .37 .01 .19 .46
.16 Bos 4 1 .35 -.37 -.02 .68
.12 Atl 1 4 .22 -.21 .05 .43
avg tm W L PER WS/48 BPM e484
.49 Phx 4 1 .55 .32 .45 .64
.25 LAC 1 4 .38 -.12 .30 .44
.69 Den 4 1 .70 .63 .67 .78
.62 Min 1 4 .67 .58 .48 .75
.56 LAL 4 2 .63 .32 .48 .80
.27 Mem 2 4 .34 .09 .10 .52
.17 GSW 4 3 .27 -.10 .05 .46
.50 Sac 3 4 .67 -.01 .59 .74
These exclude Giannis, Kawhi, and Herro.
Rounds 2, 3, 4, minus Chris Paul:
Code: Select all
avg tm W L PER WS/48 BPM e484
.49 Mia 4 2 .59 .43 .33 .62
.70 NYK 2 4 .72 .59 .70 .79
.58 Bos 4 3 .67 .38 .50 .76
.53 Phl 3 4 .58 .42 .52 .60
.51 Den 4 2 .54 .41 .50 .57
.82 Phx 2 4 .88 .58 .87 .94
.59 LAL 4 2 .63 .46 .52 .77
.24 GSW 2 4 .20 .04 .30 .41
avg tm W L PER WS/48 BPM e484
.46 Mia 4 3 .51 .32 .40 .62
.09 Bos 3 4 .18 -.34 -.11 .65
.79 Den 4 0 .81 .70 .83 .84
.87 LAL 0 4 .89 .85 .87 .87
.53 Den 4 1 .55 .44 .48 .66
.38 Mia 1 4 .48 .09 .24 .71
Total/avg by round:
Code: Select all
rd PER WS/48 BPM e484
1 .47 .14 .34 .59
2 .60 .42 .53 .68
3+4 .57 .35 .45 .72
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2024 5:19 pm
by Mike G
In each of their 3 playoff rounds, the Celtics had the widest range of correlations in that round; which is to say, the 4 summary stats don't agree so much.
This may be very hard to interpret, but I'm copying my worksheet with all players and correlations available. Toward the bottom (fewer minutes) they get increasingly less viable.
Totals for entire postseason:
Code: Select all
. Celtics G Min PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS48 BPM e484 PER WS BPM e484
Tatum 20 799 22.6 .168 5.3 2.17 .57 -.08 .27 .80
Brown 20 751 15.5 .051 -0.9 1.21
Smart 20 679 15.4 .112 0.8 1.01 Correlations from Tatum Average of correl.
Horford 20 617 12.8 .118 2.8 .78 to player in each line down to each line
White 20 593 16.2 .151 3.0 .83 .72 -.11 .05 .88 .72 -.11 .05 .88
Brogdon 19 474 13.4 .076 -1.6 .76 .72 .24 .47 .80 .72 .06 .26 .84
R Williams 20 417 19.6 .208 3.4 1.04 .25 -.29 .17 .66 .56 -.06 .23 .78
G Williams 15 265 12.0 .137 1.1 .20 .47 -.26 .20 .79 .54 -.11 .22 .78
Hauser 15 104 9.3 .079 -2.2 .02 .66 .04 .48 .85 .57 -.08 .27 .80
Pritchard 10 57 18.4 .140 5.0 1.20 .39 -.03 .11 .60 .54 -.07 .25 .76
Kornet 8 32 28.5 .337 8.2 1.18 -.11 -.41 -.22 .46 .44 -.12 .18 .72
Muscala 6 21 17.9 .210 4.9 .52 -.13 -.46 -.29 .50 .37 -.16 .12 .69
. total 4809 16.4 .125 1.9 1.10
Celts went mostly 8 deep, with Grant W slipping out of the rotation for a spell.
The bottom 3 are included for illustration sake -- apparently they were awesome in mop-up duties -- and Hauser is on the cusp of relevancy. Below 5 mpg the correlations plummet.
Team totals are pretty consistent across the stats. But was Brown the #2 Celt? or the very worst?
Re: improved players from 2023 to 2024
Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:54 pm
by Crow
If "Fit matters far more than BPM..." then Coaching lineup decisions should be really driven by lineup data and the desire to play the best fit lineups should be very high. But they aren't. Coaches throw out hundreds of lineups based considerably on in the moment guesses and not on apparent best fit to performance data and trying to optimize it.
Projecting a team's future performance on sum of BPM for 5 biggest minute players will also be a very crude estimate, dependent on repeating past average lineup pattern.
If minutes and BPM and / or other metrics are not relatively highly correlated, a team's roster construction balance is suspect and trades for better fit players to form high use / higher performance lineups should be pursued.