APBRmetrics

rjb2 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:25 am

RowRowFan wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 1:32 am

rjb2 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 2:30 am

I personally have not experimented with luck adjustments. If I were to include them I would definitely include free throws but not sure about 3 pointers. Some teams like Houston for example do seem to have a measurable effect in reducing 3 point percentage. Also JE has said that it doesn't lead to improved performance.

Also when it comes to making box score priors, is the reasons something like TS% isnt used because of issues with 2P% and 3P% (Which are kind of built in just because i know 2p, 2pa and 3p, 3pa are all built in) being indirect components of it right

One other thing, I’m more interested in the idea of projecting individual impact forward rather than descriptive, so another thing I’m thinking is making it multiyear RAPM with more weight towards recent years along with box score priors with it.

Would PI RAPM have the previous years RAPM as the prior to regress to, while multiyear RAPM would be having more weight to recent years by, like maybe duplicating the year in the dataset or am I thinking about it wrong

Most public box score priors/SPM's that I've seen just use 2p, 2pa, etc... without terms like TS% because of redundancy. For the multiyear "nowcast" RAPM, if the software for ridge regression that you are using allows the use of a weight vector (which you can do in glmnet and sklearn), you could just use that to weigh data from previous years less. For the PI RAPM, I haven't really explored a version of it with predictive box priors.