TWolves, Thunder and Magic (12 of 15 best).
Only 4 5 man lineups over 100 playoff minutes but 126 trios over that mark. Might desire big minute 5 mans; but based on real practice, trios are bigger, more important.
Suns, 12 trios over 50 playoff minutes, all but one negative, all but 2 horrible. Gordon and Booker in both of non horrible, Durant in neither, Beal in one.
Lakers, 4 of 5 biggest minute trios negative. Positive one had Russell, the other 4 did not. Every trio over 50 minutes with Russell was positive.
D. Jones Jr. - P. Washington - D. Gafford is Mavs' worst big minute trio, though only moderately negative.
LIneup trends around the league
Re: League wide lineup trends
Timberwolves starters doing well against Nuggets on average but slightly negative in last 3 games. That is better than the alternatives on average though.
4 of next 5 are bad overall and last 3 and all have Alexander-Walker.
Almost no pairs worked in last 3. Exception was Reid - Gobert, which was fabulous but only 22nd most used pair.
Things that could be altered.
4 of next 5 are bad overall and last 3 and all have Alexander-Walker.
Almost no pairs worked in last 3. Exception was Reid - Gobert, which was fabulous but only 22nd most used pair.
Things that could be altered.
Re: League wide lineup trends
Mavs starters are worst playoff lineup among 10 most used. Substitute Lively for Gafford and it 32pts / 100 better.
Nuggets starters, 2nd worst.
TWolves, Celtics, Pacers were 3 best in defending order.
Doncic - Irving best performing pair in 10 most used followed by Haliburton - Turner. Worst in group, Murray - Gordon and DiVincenzo - Hart.
Nuggets starters, 2nd worst.
TWolves, Celtics, Pacers were 3 best in defending order.
Doncic - Irving best performing pair in 10 most used followed by Haliburton - Turner. Worst in group, Murray - Gordon and DiVincenzo - Hart.
Re: League wide lineup trends
Mavs starters in Game 1 vs Minn:
-41pts / 100p.
Rest of game was a blowout.
-41pts / 100p.
Rest of game was a blowout.
Re: LIneup trends around the league
Edwards - Towns is the worst raw +/- pair among 10 most used across full playoffs and only one is anywhere close. It was gone in regular season. Small sample anomality or something of note going on?
Of 7 lineups with the pair used more than 1 minute so far, it is 2 positive, 5 negative. Starters are a nice positive. 16.5 minutes per game but could / should it be 22+?
Edwards also with overall bad negative pairs with Conley, McDaniels and Reid. Strong with Gobert. Towns with 2 positives and 1 neutral with the other starters. Can Edwards be fixed or at least harm minimized?
Of 7 lineups with the pair used more than 1 minute so far, it is 2 positive, 5 negative. Starters are a nice positive. 16.5 minutes per game but could / should it be 22+?
Edwards also with overall bad negative pairs with Conley, McDaniels and Reid. Strong with Gobert. Towns with 2 positives and 1 neutral with the other starters. Can Edwards be fixed or at least harm minimized?
Re: LIneup trends around the league
Doncic - Irving is now barely positive so far in series, after being strong previoysly. Almost all the big winning pairs involve Lively with the only other big minute winner being Irving - Washington. Green pairs in albeit small minutes are also great.
Re: LIneup trends around the league
The two by far worst player pairs in 10 most used in current series for Pacers both involve Turner. Lots of smaller minute, horrible ones though.
Full starting unit is fine and almost 20 minutes per game. But most of rest must suck. Did they test beyond starters enough? Not really. None still possible over 2 min / gm and but one closer to 1 minute or less. Multiple positive Hield lineups gone. Oops, doesn't sound reasonable. Oops, didnt turn out wise.
Take the starters to 28 minutes? Have to study / plan it to recommend, but I recommend such study.
Haliburton - Turner overall was best raw pair in 20 most used of regular season. Small sample anomaly or something went wrong? What? Fixable? Try to fix it or leap heavier into the lesser known without it? Now is the time to really decide. Haliburton injury might force. Injuries are a major nut not exclusive reason for far more extensive / disciplined testing of a handful or 2 alt lineups.
Full starting unit is fine and almost 20 minutes per game. But most of rest must suck. Did they test beyond starters enough? Not really. None still possible over 2 min / gm and but one closer to 1 minute or less. Multiple positive Hield lineups gone. Oops, doesn't sound reasonable. Oops, didnt turn out wise.
Take the starters to 28 minutes? Have to study / plan it to recommend, but I recommend such study.
Haliburton - Turner overall was best raw pair in 20 most used of regular season. Small sample anomaly or something went wrong? What? Fixable? Try to fix it or leap heavier into the lesser known without it? Now is the time to really decide. Haliburton injury might force. Injuries are a major nut not exclusive reason for far more extensive / disciplined testing of a handful or 2 alt lineups.
Re: LIneup trends around the league
If you have seen similar lineup and sub-lineup analysis elsewhere for playoffs in general or these specific series in mainstream media or on internet, let me know where.
Re: LIneup trends around the league
Mavs starters continue negative but not as negative. Don't change based on overall winning or change more against the drag? I assume they will stay the same for now.
Re: LIneup trends around the league
Of 5 top level contenders with strongest regular season lineups, 2 did fine overall so far (Celtics, TWolves) 2 eliminated or hurt by injuries (Bucks, Clippers) and 1 fell off (Nuggets).
Re: LIneup trends around the league
"95.5% of the champion's net playoff margin over last 5 years came from their 5 biggest lineups."
Celtics so far: 107% of net margin from 5 biggest lineups.
Dink? I'd think harder, differently. Use them way less.
Celtics use big 5 for 58.7% of playoff minutes so far. 41.3% on lineups used the equivalent of 1.5 minutes or less. The dink and nearly officially dink.
Celtics so far: 107% of net margin from 5 biggest lineups.
Dink? I'd think harder, differently. Use them way less.
Celtics use big 5 for 58.7% of playoff minutes so far. 41.3% on lineups used the equivalent of 1.5 minutes or less. The dink and nearly officially dink.
Re: LIneup trends around the league
TWolves, one lineup used more than 2.5 minutes per game in playoffs.
Edwards - Towns the by far worst player pair among 10 most used and slightly negative for full playoffs. Went to -8 / 100p against Dallas but become only 4th worst among 10 most used. 3 Conley pairs slipped below it. Gobert and Towns both in 2 of 3 best of 10 including together but only near neutral.
Edwards - Towns the by far worst player pair among 10 most used and slightly negative for full playoffs. Went to -8 / 100p against Dallas but become only 4th worst among 10 most used. 3 Conley pairs slipped below it. Gobert and Towns both in 2 of 3 best of 10 including together but only near neutral.
Re: LIneup trends around the league
In regular season and playoffs Holiday - Tatum, no Brown has been twice as good as with Brown but the full trio played twice as much in regular season and 3x in playoffs. That appears to be a monstrous inefficiency.
2 without Holiday or Tatum was negative so far in playoffs. That also should be avoided but Mazzulla goes to them for 8+ minutes per playoff game. Brown by himself is slightly better, slightly positive.
Follow the numbers or not. It could matter or not.
(Adjusted lineup data would be better of course.)
2 without Holiday or Tatum was negative so far in playoffs. That also should be avoided but Mazzulla goes to them for 8+ minutes per playoff game. Brown by himself is slightly better, slightly positive.
Follow the numbers or not. It could matter or not.
(Adjusted lineup data would be better of course.)
Re: LIneup trends around the league
White - Brown - Tatum without Holiday and Horford? Neutral to slightly negative against modest competition. Will it work against Mavs? Used more or less than to date?
Re: LIneup trends around the league
Celtics in playoffs gave about half of total minutes to 3 lineups. All were great.
Only 1 of next 4 was above +3 but 4 of 4 thru 10 most used were at least non-negative. The filler to there and beyond was not anywhere near as good.
110% of the Celtics net playoff margin came from their 3 most used lineups. 110%. They lost cumulatively on the other 84 near dink, dink and super dink lineups.
Concentrate wisely and win. Don't count on micro-coaching.
114% of the Mavericks net playoff margin came from 3 most used lineups. They also lost on average in the remaining 151 lineups. They gave their 3 most used closer to 40% of total time. Not enough.
Pacers got about 105% of their margin from 3 most used lineups. Used them about 42% of total time. Not enough. Lost on remaining 98 lineups.
Timberwolves got about 90% of their margin from 3 most used lineups. Used them about 37% of total time. Not enough. Very mildly positive on sum of remaining 75 lineups.
So finalist with highest concentration on 3 most used lineups and the best top 3 won in a walk. Only 1 of 4 best trams won the near dink, dink, superdink game.
Lessons from the game. Not theories, facts. Concentration on 3 most used lineups did even more this time than the top 5 of the previous 5 titlewinners.
Any team that does not have this type information- and advocacy- from internal sources probably needs someone giving it to them.
Private messaging available.
Only 1 of next 4 was above +3 but 4 of 4 thru 10 most used were at least non-negative. The filler to there and beyond was not anywhere near as good.
110% of the Celtics net playoff margin came from their 3 most used lineups. 110%. They lost cumulatively on the other 84 near dink, dink and super dink lineups.
Concentrate wisely and win. Don't count on micro-coaching.
114% of the Mavericks net playoff margin came from 3 most used lineups. They also lost on average in the remaining 151 lineups. They gave their 3 most used closer to 40% of total time. Not enough.
Pacers got about 105% of their margin from 3 most used lineups. Used them about 42% of total time. Not enough. Lost on remaining 98 lineups.
Timberwolves got about 90% of their margin from 3 most used lineups. Used them about 37% of total time. Not enough. Very mildly positive on sum of remaining 75 lineups.
So finalist with highest concentration on 3 most used lineups and the best top 3 won in a walk. Only 1 of 4 best trams won the near dink, dink, superdink game.
Lessons from the game. Not theories, facts. Concentration on 3 most used lineups did even more this time than the top 5 of the previous 5 titlewinners.
Any team that does not have this type information- and advocacy- from internal sources probably needs someone giving it to them.
Private messaging available.