2024 Playoffs overview

[Crow]

Celtics & Nuggets my 2 most likely to win title.

5 or 6 would be youngest ever if they won it this way. Not very likely.

It is interesting how many over the hill old teams there are this year though.

Maybe a new era is dawning but it has to dawn and become an era of that.

[Mike G]

With 3 Western series wrapped up, team stats ranked by BPM, along with the stats' correlation with player minutes:

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rd1   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      PER  WS/48  BPM  e480
OKC   15.9   .199   3.7   1.40      .72   .46   .39   .80
Min   17.7   .194   3.2   1.36      .72   .70   .79   .61
Den   15.9   .115   2.0   1.07      .78   .75   .77   .74

LAL   15.6   .092   1.4    .93      .84   .72   .81   .78
NOP   10.8   .004  -0.3    .60      .13   .23   .33   .28
Phx   13.8   .015  -0.6    .64      .50   .34   .56   .60
tot   14.9   .103   1.6   1.00               
.                                W  .74   .64   .65   .72
.  correlations w minutes   :    L  .49   .43   .57   .55

Teams separated into winners and losers, correlations given for each.
As usual, Win Shares are more than one per game.

[Crow]

The top 9s on Offensive, Defensive and Net are all among those still alive. They are different top 9s.

Timberwolves, Celtics. Thunder, Nuggets and Clippers are on all 3 top 9s. The only team still alive and on none of the top 9s is the Heat. 2 of 3 teams already gone missed on all 3 and Pelicans qualified on defense by a thin margin.


Suns lead playoffs on FT rate but were last on 3pt rate.

Nuggets are second lowest of FT rate and 3rd lowest on 3pt rate. Nuggets partially compensate with 5th highest at the rim frequency.

Sixers 3rd and 4th highest respectively. Mavs 4th and 6th highest. Sixers complete the trifecta with 3rd highest frequency at rim. Mavs below average there.

Celtics highest on 3pt rate, middling on FT rate and 2nd to last on shots at rim rate.

Thunder modestly above average on 3pta rate but below average on other two.

[Crow]

I think it is 4 series with at least near a 5 net rebound per game lead. TWolves won with near +14. Several things can go into that but it is noted / notable.

[Mike G]

In all 3 East series that are 3-2, the team that is 2-3 has scored more points. Orl > Cle by 7.2 ppg
****
Even without the 14 weakest teams, the playoffs have seen a big decline in offensive efficiencies.
Only a handful of teams have managed to do better than the league regular-season averages:

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stat:   ORtg    Pace   TS%   eFG%   ORb%
RegS    115.3   98.5   .580  .547   24.2
POff    111.6   92.9   .560  .524   23.2
>RSAvg:  Min    none    Min   OKC    Min
.        Mil            Mil   Mil    NYK
.        Bos            OKC   Min    Dal
.        Ind            Phx  (Bos)   NOP
.                                    Den

[Crow]

Only 1 less fta per team per game. A lot of it is due to pace decline and what produces pace decline. Better defense, indecision, physicality...

[Mike G]

The 11 best shooting teams -- regular season eFG% -- made the playoffs, and 6 made it out of the 1st round.
The 5 who are out lost to either a better-shooting team or to a much better defensive team (Min, Den).

Meanwhile, just 7 of the 15 above-avg Rebounding teams made the playoffs, and 4 are into the 2nd round.

Of 15 teams with fewer RS turnovers than their opponents, 10 made the playoffs (3 more made the play-in), and 6 are still playing.

[Mike G]

The round 1 leaders in generic 'wins' -- the avg of wins estimated by each of 4 summary stats; divided by team's games.

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w/Gm    round 1        tm   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484    pWin   WS   bWin  eWin
.249   Nikola Jokić   Den   202   32.3   .318   14.3   2.88    1.21  1.30  1.26  1.20
.209  Anthony Edwards Min   158   27.6   .281   10.6   2.66     .78   .90   .80   .87
.194   Anthony Davis  LAL   208   27.7   .244    7.3   2.28    1.03  1.02   .83   .98
.189   Joel Embiid    Phl   248   27.1   .199    8.4   2.44    1.20  1.00  1.08  1.25
.184   LeBron James   LAL   204   26.9   .191   10.6   2.09     .98   .79  1.03   .88

.177   Kyrie Irving   Dal   240   24.1   .234    7.8   2.25    1.00  1.13  1.00  1.12
.174   Derrick White  Bos   170   25.8   .321   10.3   2.18     .77  1.10   .84   .77
.164   Luka Dončić    Dal   255   21.8   .153    4.8   2.67     .93   .79   .82  1.41
.160   Jalen Brunson  NYK   263   23.1   .148    5.6   2.03    1.03   .78   .91  1.10
.156   Shai G-A       OKC   151   21.8   .216    4.9   2.58     .55   .66   .49   .81

w/Gm    round 1        tm   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484    pWin   WS   bWin  eWin
.150   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   267   21.4   .158    5.0   1.70     .95   .85   .87   .94
.149   James Harden   LAC   242   21.1   .175    7.7   1.76     .84   .85  1.00   .88
.143   Jayson Tatum   Bos   190   20.0   .226    3.6   2.16     .61   .87   .54   .85
.143  Jalen Williams  OKC   148   20.4   .214    5.1   2.19     .49   .64   .49   .67
.137  Michael Porter  Den   197   20.8   .191    6.4   1.40     .67   .76   .73   .57

.133   Devin Booker   Phx   166   22.7   .147    4.5   1.42     .64   .49   .52   .49
.129   Karl-A Towns   Min   113   24.0   .278    6.2   2.37     .47   .63   .41   .55
.129   Franz Wagner   Orl   259   18.3   .205    4.9   1.82     .74  1.07   .84   .97
.128   Pascal Siakam  Ind   227   22.0   .169    3.6   1.74     .83   .77   .64   .81
.125  Paolo Banchero  Orl   262   19.6   .115    4.7   2.29     .82   .61   .83  1.24

w/Gm    round 1        tm   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484    pWin   WS   bWin  eWin
.124   Rudy Gobert    Min   140   20.5   .236    3.7   1.56     .47   .67   .40   .45
.118   Kevin Durant   Phx   168   21.4   .094    3.8   1.42     .59   .32   .49   .49
.117 Donovan Mitchell Cle   262   20.3   .097    4.4   2.01     .86   .51   .81  1.09
.111   Myles Turner   Ind   200   20.7   .169    4.7   1.62     .68   .68   .64   .67
.107  Khris Middleton Mil   230   21.0   .126    0.5   1.63     .79   .58   .42   .78

.106  Damian Lillard  Mil   156   25.6   .204    7.3   1.79     .70   .64   .63   .58
.104   Chet Holmgren  OKC   129   17.3   .186    3.3   1.82     .34   .48   .35   .49
.101   Josh Hart      NYK   278   15.1   .105    2.4   1.01     .59   .59   .68   .58
.095   Austin Reaves  LAL   174   18.6   .144    3.8   1.06     .51   .51   .50   .38
.094   Paul George    LAC   222   16.5   .094    3.2   1.50     .54   .42   .60   .69

1st round team rates, ranked by BPM:

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tm    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484      tm    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
OKC   15.9   .199   3.7   1.40      Bos   17.3   .199   3.3   1.39
Min   17.7   .194   3.2   1.36      NYK   16.0   .103   1.9   1.01
Dal   16.8   .147   2.3   1.20      Phl   15.6   .106   1.9    .99
Den   15.9   .115   2.0   1.07      Orl   13.4   .127   1.3   1.15
LAL   15.6   .092   1.4    .93      Ind   16.6   .117   0.6   1.08
LAC   13.7   .066   0.6    .80      Cle   12.7   .076   0.2    .85
NOP   10.8   .004  -0.3    .60      Mil   15.9   .086   0.0    .92
Phx   13.8   .015  -0.6    .64      Mia   11.8   .007  -0.8    .61

The 4 best teams in the West advance, but in the East, only 2 of top 4.

[Mike G]

After 2 games in round 2, generic 'wins' as the avg of 4. Not adjusted for games played; just total.

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xyzW    player        tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      pW    WS    bW    eW
1.48  Nikola Jokić   Den   281   29.3   .251  11.7   2.63     1.47  1.42  1.51  1.54
1.33 Anthony Edwards Min   237   29.4   .303  11.1   2.86     1.25  1.44  1.23  1.41
1.33  Jalen Brunson  NYK   339   25.0   .177   5.8   2.10     1.45  1.21  1.19  1.48
1.22  Luka Dončić    Dal   337   21.0   .131   5.5   2.43     1.14   .89  1.15  1.71
1.19  Do. Mitchell   Cle   339   21.6   .122   6.0   2.15     1.20   .83  1.21  1.52

1.18  Kyrie Irving   Dal   319   21.2   .186   6.5   1.84     1.10  1.19  1.19  1.22
1.13  Joel Embiid    Phl   248   27.1   .199   8.4   2.44     1.18   .99  1.07  1.26
1.09  Shai G-A       OKC   230   24.7   .251   7.5   2.71      .97  1.16   .93  1.30
1.06  Derrick White  Bos   233   23.6   .281   8.9   1.98      .93  1.32  1.04   .96
.96   Anthony Davis  LAL   208   27.7   .244   7.3   2.28     1.02  1.02   .83   .99

xyzW    player        tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      pW    WS    bW    eW
.94   Jayson Tatum   Bos   263   20.0   .201   3.6   2.08      .83  1.06   .74  1.14
.91   LeBron James   LAL   204   26.9   .191  10.6   2.09      .96   .78  1.02   .89
.91   Josh Hart      NYK   374   16.6   .114   3.1   1.15      .90   .86   .99   .90
.90   Franz Wagner   Orl   259   18.3   .205   4.9   1.82      .72  1.07   .83   .98
.90   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   267   21.4   .158   5.0   1.70      .93   .85   .87   .95

.89   James Harden   LAC   242   21.1   .175   7.7   1.76      .83   .85   .99   .89
.87  Paolo Banchero  Orl   262   19.6   .115   4.7   2.29      .81   .61   .83  1.25
.87   Evan Mobley    Cle   302   18.2   .151   3.5   1.41      .84   .92   .84   .88
.86   Karl-A Towns   Min   179   25.2   .297   7.1   2.42      .78  1.07   .70   .90
.81  Ty. Haliburton  Ind   289   19.7   .122   3.4   1.39      .90   .71   .79   .84

xyzW    player        tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      pW    WS    bW    eW
.79   Pascal Siakam  Ind   300   19.7   .117   1.3   1.47      .93   .71   .62   .92
.73  Michael Porter  Den   276   17.8   .132   4.1   1.12      .74   .73   .82   .64
.72  Jalen Williams  OKC   222   18.5   .179   3.6   1.81      .63   .80   .62   .84
.71   Jaylen Brown   Bos   235   20.6   .133   1.7   1.88      .78   .63   .52   .92
.65  Is. Hartenstein NYK   234   18.9   .160   2.7   1.15      .69   .75   .59   .56

.65   Myles Turner   Ind   266   17.9   .106   1.7   1.29      .72   .57   .59   .71
.64   Jarrett Allen  Cle   127   27.3   .305   8.4   2.41      .61   .78   .55   .64
.64  Khris Middleton Mil   230   21.0   .126   0.5   1.63      .78   .58   .42   .78
.64   Aaron Gordon   Den   267   16.6   .138   2.6    .92      .64   .74   .66   .51
.63  Damian Lillard  Mil   156   25.6   .204   7.3   1.79      .69   .64   .62   .58
.62   Rudy Gobert    Min   175   19.6   .244   4.1   1.51      .54   .86   .52   .55

Noticing a couple of things at espn.com:
-- Neil Paine, formerly of 538 (which sold to ABC and closed its Sports coverage), nee` b-r.com, nee` APBR, now works there.
-- Neil has done a similar thing he calls "consensus wins", using a different 4th column and different methods at converting PER and BPM to "wins".
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/ ... irst-round
... I only saw the opening paragraphs, without a subscription.

[Crow]

As of May 6, he had the order as 1 Jokic, Edwards, James, Irving, White...

Jalen Williams 8th, SGA 9th (as of 4 days ago)...

Tatum 11, Doncic 12, Brunson 15...

[Mike G]

About LeBron, he wrote:
"Looking at his component wins added via BPM (1.7), PER (1.5), RAPTOR (1.2) and win shares (0.8), our consensus estimates James produced 1.3 wins during the first round,"

The Win Shares are straightforward (WS/48)*min/48 and concur with what I posted.
If PER gives Lebron 1.5 wins --and AD had better PER and played more minutes -- then the two of them total >3 "wins."
The whole team won 1 game; the series pt-diff suggests they "should have won" 2.16 (Pythagorean) out of 5; so the rest of the team was significantly negative, whatever target wins the method shoots for.

BPM-wins looks similarly hard to justify, unless we figure 2-ish wins vs Denver might be equivalent to more vs average competition?
It's tricky, whatever.


Mostly unrelated:
The 2 teams that swept their 1st round opponents 4-0 averaged 3.52 Pythagorean wins. (OKC and Min)
The 4-1 winners (Den, Bos) had avg 3.64 Pyth Wins
4-2 winners (Dal, Ind, NYK) got avg 3.58 pyth wins.
The only 4-3 series featured the most dominant 1st round team, the Orlando Magic with 4.52 Pyth wins.*
A larger sample of 7 game series likely has winning teams getting around 3.6 pyWins. So maybe it's not essential to divide any "wins" by number of games played?

* -- I don't know the last time a team has lost a series with a scoring advantage more than Orl +4.4 ppg over Cle.
It's still well behind the Lakers' +18.7 in a 2-1 series loss to the Hawks in 1956.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... hawks.html

[Mike G]

Tracking 2nd-round superstars (or closest) thru X games:

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.         Nikola Jokić      thru      Anthony Edwards      
PER    WS/48   BPM   e480   gms    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
21.6   .051    4.2   2.08    1    40.0   .410   16.3   3.28
21.6   .080    5.1   2.00    2    33.0   .347   12.1   3.26
24.7   .180    8.9   2.51    3    25.5   .187    8.2   2.36
26.6   .195    8.6   2.60    4    28.6   .230   11.0   2.53
31.1   .290   12.7   3.31    5    24.6   .171    7.8   2.19
29.1   .228   11.3   3.02    6    25.4   .223    8.8   2.57

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.       Jalen Brunson      thru      Tyrese Haliburton  
PER   WS/48   BPM   e480   gms    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
31.6   .277   6.5   2.32    2    26.8   .174   11.4   1.83
23.8   .125   1.3   1.77    3    28.8   .213   13.7   2.32
21.7   .064   1.7   1.62    4    28.6   .264   12.3   2.50
23.1   .129   3.0   2.04    5    26.3   .217   10.8   2.23
22.4   .109   2.3   1.92    6    25.7   .217   10.5   2.25

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. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander   thru     Luka Doncic      
PER    WS/48   BPM   e480   gms    PER   WS/48  BPM   e480
30.2   .318   12.5   2.97    2    18.5   .063   7.7   1.68
27.9   .254   10.7   2.73    3    18.4   .085   7.0   1.81
28.6   .272   11.9   2.83    4    15.4   .041   5.1   1.66
28.1   .246   11.8   2.72    5    18.2   .101   6.8   1.98
28.1   .247   11.8   2.65    6    19.0   .127   7.0   2.02

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.         Jason Tatum      thru      Evan Mobley      
PER   WS/48   BPM   e480   gms    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
20.0   .136   3.6   1.90    2    28.4   .293   11.2   2.62
22.1   .157   4.4   2.40    3    24.7   .222    7.7   2.07
23.1   .173   4.7   2.42    4    22.3   .181    5.7   1.82
24.5   .224   6.5   2.38    5    23.8   .167    5.7   1.86

UPDATE May 19

[Crow]

Brunson "belongs" in this group only on PER, Doncic only on BPM.

[Mike G]

Scroll up and note that 2 games into round 2, the top 4 in "all-stat" wins, for the whole postseason, were Joker-Edwards-Brunson-Luka. Shai at #9 and Haliburton 20th.
Star player WS rates seem inevitably to go up or down with a win or a loss. Brunson Game BPM are shown as -9 and 2 in losses; in wins 5, 9, and 8.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nced/2024/

Luka meanwhile has the worst postseason shooting of his career, and 2 worst individual series.
We don't know exactly how much he enhances the eFG% of Washington, Green, Jones, Gafford, etc; but I suspect it is a lot.

[Mike G]

All 2nd-round teams have played 5 games.

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.37  Nikola Jokić   Den   40  .610   29.4  11.3   8.2   2.1   3.7  1.1   3.31
1.16  Shai G-A       OKC   41  .579   30.9   8.0   6.2   1.3   2.4  2.2   2.72
1.00  Jayson Tatum   Bos   40  .556   24.6  10.9   5.7   1.3   2.5   .9   2.38
.94  Anthony Edwards Min   41  .654   29.1   4.9   4.7   1.1   3.2   .7   2.19
.85   Luka Dončić    Dal   41  .520   21.9   9.8   7.3   1.5   3.8   .5   1.98

.80   Jalen Brunson   NY   38  .557   29.7   3.2   5.0   1.2   3.4   .2   2.04
.79  Ty. Haliburton  Ind   34  .679   24.0   4.6   6.2   2.3   2.0   .7   2.23
.72   Evan Mobley    Cle   37  .648   23.0   9.9   2.7    .9   2.1  1.0   1.86
.67   Aaron Gordon   Den   35  .737   21.5   6.4   4.8   1.5   1.4   .4   1.87
.67   Jaylen Brown   Bos   36  .665   27.4   7.2   2.9    .4   2.8   .4   1.78

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.60 Donovan Mitchell Cle   24  .651   31.4   6.2   4.2   1.0   1.3   .0   2.40
.57   Karl-A Towns   Min   35  .606   20.7   9.3   2.6    .8   2.0   .4   1.56
.51  P.J. Washington Dal   37  .618   20.2   9.3   1.9    .8   1.9   .4   1.33
.48   Josh Hart       NY   40  .598   12.9  12.1   3.9   1.3   3.8   .6   1.15
.46   Pascal Siakam  Ind   32  .572   19.4   8.3   2.3    .7   1.4   .5   1.40

.43  Daniel Gafford  Dal   24  .602   18.5  11.8   2.0    .3   1.9  3.3   1.69
.42 Donte DiVincenzo  NY   39  .554   16.6   5.0   2.5   1.2   1.5  1.0   1.05
.41  Jalen Williams  OKC   38  .476   14.0   5.7   4.8   1.6   1.5   .6   1.04
.41   Chet Holmgren  OKC   36  .565   14.9   6.8   2.1    .8   1.6  2.8   1.08
.39   Myles Turner   Ind   31  .622   17.4   7.2   1.8    .9   2.6  2.4   1.21

The top 8 are exactly one from each team.
The rest have less than half the impact of #1.