Paul George vs. Celtics recently and implications for Sixers:
https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1820296779054895223
2025 NBA title contention
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
Bucks had incredible top 4 lineups last regular season (+13 to +21 / 100p) but only used together about 27% of time. Too low.
Only 1 of these 4 had Portis. 7 of the 10 negative lineups in 20 most used had Portis. I'd study Portis use closely and be inclined to change it, concentrate on the positive cases that do exist heavily... or possibly trade him.
No Portis lineup was used 100 minutes. 100 minutes is only 5% of his total time. They had plenty of time to meaningfully test a few or a handful of best considered and selected lineups. But no, scattershot coaching chaos was the choice. Front office did not insist on proper / significant testing.
He was slightly negative with Giannis in regular season.
Playoffs with Portis was very good except with Lillard. They either got lucky with that or finally got serious with that and / or were just very sloppy with regular season. I'd try for more consistency / proof next season.
Portis - Connaughton was another specific example of an issue not managed well in regular season. Looked way better in playoffs but small sample.
Overall they were just 10 positive in 20 most used. Not enough for an elite team. Too many mistakes or slop. 5 and 5 in playoff 10 most used.
Lots of players are current roster who are questionable plays. Lineup results under concentrated testing of the best guesses is the way to go but it will likely be scattershot again, maybe or probably worse than last season.
Could possibly be the 2 seed in east, or down to 8th.
If weak results, big changes should probably be coming.
95% of most used 4 man units were positive but only half the 5 mans. That's on coaching... and front office. Should have been possible to do better at 5 man level.
No Giannis but not even 1st round success against a no defense team.
Only 1 of these 4 had Portis. 7 of the 10 negative lineups in 20 most used had Portis. I'd study Portis use closely and be inclined to change it, concentrate on the positive cases that do exist heavily... or possibly trade him.
No Portis lineup was used 100 minutes. 100 minutes is only 5% of his total time. They had plenty of time to meaningfully test a few or a handful of best considered and selected lineups. But no, scattershot coaching chaos was the choice. Front office did not insist on proper / significant testing.
He was slightly negative with Giannis in regular season.
Playoffs with Portis was very good except with Lillard. They either got lucky with that or finally got serious with that and / or were just very sloppy with regular season. I'd try for more consistency / proof next season.
Portis - Connaughton was another specific example of an issue not managed well in regular season. Looked way better in playoffs but small sample.
Overall they were just 10 positive in 20 most used. Not enough for an elite team. Too many mistakes or slop. 5 and 5 in playoff 10 most used.
Lots of players are current roster who are questionable plays. Lineup results under concentrated testing of the best guesses is the way to go but it will likely be scattershot again, maybe or probably worse than last season.
Could possibly be the 2 seed in east, or down to 8th.
If weak results, big changes should probably be coming.
95% of most used 4 man units were positive but only half the 5 mans. That's on coaching... and front office. Should have been possible to do better at 5 man level.
No Giannis but not even 1st round success against a no defense team.
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
In the east, teams could want to stay out of 4 / 5 to delay facing Celtics. But if it has to happen, it may not be a big deal unless getting out of 2nd round is a legacy issue.
In west, I don't teams will be jockeying for a specific opponent on general grounds, but maybe on specific matchup grounds.
In west, I don't teams will be jockeying for a specific opponent on general grounds, but maybe on specific matchup grounds.
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
Who will be in the great 8 that make it to second round of next playoffs?
Right now I'd say:
Celtics, Bucks, Knicks and Sixers.
Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Mavs.
Who would you sub in and out?
Sure plenty is possible but what seem most probable?
If you agree, then the other competitors need to outperform expectations and / or make moves.
Right now I'd say:
Celtics, Bucks, Knicks and Sixers.
Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Mavs.
Who would you sub in and out?
Sure plenty is possible but what seem most probable?
If you agree, then the other competitors need to outperform expectations and / or make moves.
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
How to beat the Mavs? Last regular season data indicates best results from efficient shooting or strong shot defense or both. On average being strong on another factor is not enough to beat them more than 50% of time.
Data suggests you probably aren't going to beat with pace, turnovers or especially rebounds. Probably not going to beat their starters... unless you have a stronger frontline.
Who beat them decisively in regular season? Celtics, Nuggets, Thunder and Timberwolves, to name the first checked.
But only Celtics beat them on net efg% in playoff series and just barely. That is the task / research project.
Beating them on 2 smaller impact factors was not enough.
Celtics, Nuggets, Thunder and Timberwolves all beat Mavs on efg% in regular season, usually by large amounts. Something(s) changed. The trades or more. Mavs shot defense got better after the trades. Own shooting got a little better on average but was season's worst in month of April.
Thunder could / should be better on both efg% factors in general but will they do it if a playoff re-match with Mavs occurs?
They had better shot defense against Pelicans but that wasn't saying much. Own efg% was only meh overall and not enough. SGA was only average on efg% in playoffs and Jalen Williams was a step below. Only Joe was significantly above average among main guys. SGA was a bit better against Mavs, JDub way worse. Giddeyand Wallace also poor, Dort very poor. Needed multiple way above average to win against a 2nd round team.
On beating TWolves and Nuggets
https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1827115172043092282
Data suggests you probably aren't going to beat with pace, turnovers or especially rebounds. Probably not going to beat their starters... unless you have a stronger frontline.
Who beat them decisively in regular season? Celtics, Nuggets, Thunder and Timberwolves, to name the first checked.
But only Celtics beat them on net efg% in playoff series and just barely. That is the task / research project.
Beating them on 2 smaller impact factors was not enough.
Celtics, Nuggets, Thunder and Timberwolves all beat Mavs on efg% in regular season, usually by large amounts. Something(s) changed. The trades or more. Mavs shot defense got better after the trades. Own shooting got a little better on average but was season's worst in month of April.
Thunder could / should be better on both efg% factors in general but will they do it if a playoff re-match with Mavs occurs?
They had better shot defense against Pelicans but that wasn't saying much. Own efg% was only meh overall and not enough. SGA was only average on efg% in playoffs and Jalen Williams was a step below. Only Joe was significantly above average among main guys. SGA was a bit better against Mavs, JDub way worse. Giddeyand Wallace also poor, Dort very poor. Needed multiple way above average to win against a 2nd round team.
On beating TWolves and Nuggets
https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1827115172043092282
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
It is a new season upcoming; but looking back, only 7 teams were .500+ against top 16 and 3 barely were. The strong 4 were Celtics, Thunder, Timberwolves and Nuggets. Barely positive were Mavs, Pacers and Bucks. Fwiw, the close next tier had Clippers, Kings, Suns and Pelicans. Teams in second or third tier probably will have to get substantially better to win title.
Knicks, Warriors, Lakers, Sixers, Magic, Heat and Cavs were nowhere close to .500 against top 16.
Warriors were tied for 17th best against top 10. Heat, 20th.
If outside top 11 from this perspective, they better be radically better to matter much.
In the top 11 were 3 eastern teams and 8 western. Will that change?
The strongest 4 were the only ones over .500 against top 10. That is a worthy regular season goal. May not be absolutely essential; but if don't clear that, it seems less likely.
Celtics won over 70% against top 10. The next 3 were 60% and a bit lower. A modest gap but another sign of being the best.
That win rate could dip against the best Finals opponent. 58% win then is barely enough to get to 4.
Might be worth calculating win% against top 3 or 5.
Griz could end up in any of the top 3 tiers or possibly outside them.
Knicks, Warriors, Lakers, Sixers, Magic, Heat and Cavs were nowhere close to .500 against top 16.
Warriors were tied for 17th best against top 10. Heat, 20th.
If outside top 11 from this perspective, they better be radically better to matter much.
In the top 11 were 3 eastern teams and 8 western. Will that change?
The strongest 4 were the only ones over .500 against top 10. That is a worthy regular season goal. May not be absolutely essential; but if don't clear that, it seems less likely.
Celtics won over 70% against top 10. The next 3 were 60% and a bit lower. A modest gap but another sign of being the best.
That win rate could dip against the best Finals opponent. 58% win then is barely enough to get to 4.
Might be worth calculating win% against top 3 or 5.
Griz could end up in any of the top 3 tiers or possibly outside them.
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
Constructing a top 5 of teams with +4 SRS or higher- and Mavs- Celtics went 8-5 against the other 4 in regular season and playoffs.
Mavs 12-17.
Thunder 11-9.
Timberwolves 13-13.
Nuggets 10-10.
Were Mavs easiest of 4 opponents for Celtics? Certainly seems that way. 6-1 against Mavs, 2-4 against the other 3.
Were the Thunder the toughest? By SRS but by W-L it was the Nuggets (2-0). Celtics won blowouts against Mavs and Thunder but not Timberwolves.
But of course small samples.
Mavs 12-17.
Thunder 11-9.
Timberwolves 13-13.
Nuggets 10-10.
Were Mavs easiest of 4 opponents for Celtics? Certainly seems that way. 6-1 against Mavs, 2-4 against the other 3.
Were the Thunder the toughest? By SRS but by W-L it was the Nuggets (2-0). Celtics won blowouts against Mavs and Thunder but not Timberwolves.
But of course small samples.
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
Celtics had Horford, stole Porzingis. Mavs manipulate Thunder for Lively. Thunder steal Hartenstein. TWolves had Towns, paid big for Gobert. Nuggets had Jokic.
Strong teams valuing centers.
Of course others do too (Sixers, Lakers, Cavs, Heat, Bucks, Pacers)... and not so much (Suns, Warriors, Clippers).
Strong teams valuing centers.
Of course others do too (Sixers, Lakers, Cavs, Heat, Bucks, Pacers)... and not so much (Suns, Warriors, Clippers).
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
If going to beat Celtics, probably have to contain or destroy their 3pt game. It was garbage against Heat in 2023 eastern conference finals. Random or Heat caused? The quest for a title against Celtics should begin with extensive review of the tape there. Didn't contain overall in regular season but Tatum or Brown had bad 3pt nights. Probably start there. Against Heat in playoffs, both were horrible from 3 and so were others.
They probably aren't going to beat you going to FT line.
Can you beat their defense? Heat did that too but I wouldn't think it likely. That should be studied as well.
Need a great coach or can a good coach do one or both? That is an important question.
Knicks gave up 39% 3pt fg% to Celtics last regular season and were well below average on offense against their defense. Sixers did moderately well defending the 3 but had even more trouble scoring. Neither could hang with them. Heat lost their charm against them, getting destroyed by the 3 ball and not scoring adequately. Bucks did ok against the 3 and crushed on offense but only got a 2-2 split.
Nuggets and Lakers did best and / or got lucky against Celtics 3 ball game. Lakers offense was pretty good, Nuggets wasnt but Nuggets won 2 and Lakers 1. More detail needed. Mavs couldn't do either task in regular season or playoffs. Thunder did not contain 3pt game. TWolves did both. By regular season, Mavs were the least successful contender against Celtics. Others may have more hope / real capability.
Who has a "great" coach? Some can claim. Malone and Nurse have titles along with Spoelstra. Others who can say that include Warriors and Kerr, Bucks / Rivers and Suns / Budenholzer and Pacers / Carlisle. Clippers and Lue, if they matter. Thunder with Daigneault have least experience and least playoff success of the contenders. TWolves and Mavs and Griz and Cavs coaches have more but not a title.
Title winning Coach if you want to change? Vogel, if you have high regard.
A title doesn't necessary make you a great coach in everybody's eyes but it helps. Could be a great coach without one but maybe not.
Would Caruso and Hartenstein make the difference for Thunder against Celtics? Have to get there first but unclear. Daigneault might be the pivotal piece. Or SGA / JDub, on offense and / or defense.
They probably aren't going to beat you going to FT line.
Can you beat their defense? Heat did that too but I wouldn't think it likely. That should be studied as well.
Need a great coach or can a good coach do one or both? That is an important question.
Knicks gave up 39% 3pt fg% to Celtics last regular season and were well below average on offense against their defense. Sixers did moderately well defending the 3 but had even more trouble scoring. Neither could hang with them. Heat lost their charm against them, getting destroyed by the 3 ball and not scoring adequately. Bucks did ok against the 3 and crushed on offense but only got a 2-2 split.
Nuggets and Lakers did best and / or got lucky against Celtics 3 ball game. Lakers offense was pretty good, Nuggets wasnt but Nuggets won 2 and Lakers 1. More detail needed. Mavs couldn't do either task in regular season or playoffs. Thunder did not contain 3pt game. TWolves did both. By regular season, Mavs were the least successful contender against Celtics. Others may have more hope / real capability.
Who has a "great" coach? Some can claim. Malone and Nurse have titles along with Spoelstra. Others who can say that include Warriors and Kerr, Bucks / Rivers and Suns / Budenholzer and Pacers / Carlisle. Clippers and Lue, if they matter. Thunder with Daigneault have least experience and least playoff success of the contenders. TWolves and Mavs and Griz and Cavs coaches have more but not a title.
Title winning Coach if you want to change? Vogel, if you have high regard.
A title doesn't necessary make you a great coach in everybody's eyes but it helps. Could be a great coach without one but maybe not.
Would Caruso and Hartenstein make the difference for Thunder against Celtics? Have to get there first but unclear. Daigneault might be the pivotal piece. Or SGA / JDub, on offense and / or defense.
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
Griz should be pretty good to great.
May chip away at analyzing.
First thing I checked was Morant - Smart. Not sure if it will be prominent, important. Fwiw, it was good in modest time last season. Smart with Bane, mildly negative in 3× the minutes. Of course test both, but right now one looks better than the other. With V Williams was by far best partner for Smart, albeit in fairly slim minutes. Near neutral with Jackson, fairly bad with Kennard. These early results may not be stable but there are some possible guides for constructing Smart lineups. Probably with Morant and a mix of bench players.
Aldama, 1600+ minutes. In 352 lineups. Biggest lineup got 64 minutes, less than 4%. Of course this degree of chaos is ridiculous imo. Prioritize 5-10 lineups. IF they are going to keep him around and involved, figure out what works best, for playoffs or future considerations. 10 of 10 rotation player pairs were negative last season, 8 worse than team average. He might not be a fit / keeper.
Interested to see Pereira in a longer test. Can / will he pass in games where they want to win? Is the rebounding data fluke or elite?
I always liked B Clarke as a player, since before draft. BPM rates mostly well though career worst in 6 games last season. Unfortunately, other metrics are not as favorable. Will want to see how much & how Griz use him and what he does.
Konchar fading out? Does Spencer phase in this season or later?
More questions & things to check.
May chip away at analyzing.
First thing I checked was Morant - Smart. Not sure if it will be prominent, important. Fwiw, it was good in modest time last season. Smart with Bane, mildly negative in 3× the minutes. Of course test both, but right now one looks better than the other. With V Williams was by far best partner for Smart, albeit in fairly slim minutes. Near neutral with Jackson, fairly bad with Kennard. These early results may not be stable but there are some possible guides for constructing Smart lineups. Probably with Morant and a mix of bench players.
Aldama, 1600+ minutes. In 352 lineups. Biggest lineup got 64 minutes, less than 4%. Of course this degree of chaos is ridiculous imo. Prioritize 5-10 lineups. IF they are going to keep him around and involved, figure out what works best, for playoffs or future considerations. 10 of 10 rotation player pairs were negative last season, 8 worse than team average. He might not be a fit / keeper.
Interested to see Pereira in a longer test. Can / will he pass in games where they want to win? Is the rebounding data fluke or elite?
I always liked B Clarke as a player, since before draft. BPM rates mostly well though career worst in 6 games last season. Unfortunately, other metrics are not as favorable. Will want to see how much & how Griz use him and what he does.
Konchar fading out? Does Spencer phase in this season or later?
More questions & things to check.
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
Celtics early SRS is +8.5. Down 2.2 from last season right now. Some expected it to rise and it might. We'll see later on.
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
Looking like a tier 1 of 6 teams, tier 2 of 6 to 8 more.
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
Celtics down to 6th on early SRS.
Re: 2025 NBA title contention
8 teams over +3 (and +5.5) on SRS. 6 with winning records and given more than 2% chance at title by BRef. That is the focus group. Top 3 given almost 75% chance combined. That might be the focus group within the focus group but these estimates don't tend be that realistic. Celtics only given 8% chance right now.
10 wannabe contenders in group below that. Better get to +4 or higher by end of season.
Timberwolves projected at one chance of title in 1000. Nuggets 1 in 250. Mavs 1 in 333.
Magic 1 in 70. Knicks 1 in 16.
10 wannabe contenders in group below that. Better get to +4 or higher by end of season.
Timberwolves projected at one chance of title in 1000. Nuggets 1 in 250. Mavs 1 in 333.
Magic 1 in 70. Knicks 1 in 16.