2024-25 team win projection contest

[v-zero]

...

The Cleveland and Memphis numbers are also clearly wrong. I imagine the right and left columns have been switched for those teams.

[Crow]

Atlanta Hawks 35
Brooklyn Nets 18
Boston Celtics 59
Charlotte Hornets 31
Chicago Bulls 29
Cleveland Cavaliers 50
Dallas Mavericks 51
Denver Nuggets 49
Detroit Pistons 27
Golden State Warriors 52
Houston Rockets 44
Indiana Pacers 47
LA Clippers 33
Los Angeles Lakers 44
Memphis Grizzlies 49
Miami Heat 40
Milwaukee Bucks 48
Minnesota Timberwolves 51
New Orleans Pelicans 48
New York Knicks 53
Oklahoma City Thunder 54
Orlando Magic 49
Philadelphia 76ers 46
Phoenix Suns 48
Portland Trail Blazers 26
San Antonio Spurs 29
Sacramento Kings 50
Toronto Raptors 25
Utah Jazz 26
Washington Wizards 19

[dtkavana]

OK, I have finally gotten my copy/paste skills down. Here are the final, correct, CraftedNBA Projections

Team Record
Boston Celtics 60
Milwaukee Bucks 50
Toronto Raptors 30
Phoenix Suns 49
Philadelphia 76ers 47
Golden State Warriors 45
Miami Heat 43
Los Angeles Clippers 40
Memphis Grizzlies 43
Minnesota Timberwolves 50
Denver Nuggets 51
Orlando Magic 46
Dallas Mavericks 47
Cleveland Cavaliers 52
New York Knicks 50
Utah Jazz 29
New Orleans Pelicans 42
Oklahoma City Thunder 54
Atlanta Hawks 41
San Antonio Spurs 31
Los Angeles Lakers 44
Chicago Bulls 30
Brooklyn Nets 26
Charlotte Hornets 29
Detroit Pistons 28
Washington Wizards 21
Portland Trail Blazers 22
Sacramento Kings 47
Indiana Pacers 46
Houston Rockets 38

[Crow]

wfordh,

Thanks for the KP minute estimates.

Might be useful here for metric tests not submitted or ongoing thru season and in some other applications.

[Mike G]

wfordh,

Thanks for the KP minute estimates...

Yeah thanks.
For several years I've asked if anyone can find these, and this year I did not bother.
Since a road crew cut thru my phone/internet cable, I'm in a public place to get online. The KP minutes are downloaded, and I'll try to switch out the minutes I assigned and re-submit my predictions by the weekend. If any object, I won't.

It looked like Pelton was optimistic with his minutes, with 30 players expected at 2500+. But last year there were 31.

[Mike G]

Pelton minutes applied. Each stat is regressed to the same avg departure from 41.0 -- 6.5, which was the middle ground occupied by the BPM projections.

Code: Select all

west  eWin    PER    WS    BPM      east   eWin    PER    WS    BPM
Dal   52.5   53.4   47.6   49.9      Atl   38.8   44.6   41.2   40.8
Den   50.9   49.4   47.5   47.0      Bos   52.6   52.9   56.9   55.9
GSW   41.1   40.4   44.4   46.1      Brk   31.4   30.4   33.9   29.4
Hou   47.2   43.6   43.7   45.0      Cha   31.1   34.4   29.6   28.5
LAC   31.6   35.1   44.0   40.6      Chi   34.4   34.4   35.2   34.8
LAL   36.6   37.3   38.4   39.3      Cle   45.0   43.8   46.1   45.9
Mem   43.1   41.9   34.3   41.3      Det   33.2   32.8   31.6   31.8
Min   53.5   46.4   50.6   50.3      Ind   41.2   48.2   42.7   43.2
NOP   44.0   44.5   43.9   44.6      Mia   45.1   41.2   43.0   43.5
OKC   49.4   52.5   55.3   54.7      Mil   36.6   35.5   39.6   38.3
Phx   45.6   48.3   47.1   47.2      NYK   40.9   38.8   43.8   43.0
Por   31.2   28.1   26.0   27.3      Orl   39.1   34.2   43.9   41.1
Sac   47.6   48.4   46.6   49.2      Phl   52.9   52.7   46.2   45.9
SAS   36.4   37.5   34.1   36.3      Tor   30.3   32.5   32.2   31.9
Uta   32.6   33.6   32.1   29.1      Was   34.1   33.4   28.2   28.2
avg   42.9   42.7   42.4   43.2      avg   39.1   39.3   39.6   38.8

Leaving my earlier slate up for now, since I haven't got feedback whether this late submission is acceptable.

[eminence]

Presuming there's no Dejounte injury update or anything, I have no problem with a prediction coming in now.

[DSMok1]

Those are interesting statistical projections.

They seem a little narrower than I would have expected.

Was any regression to the mean applied? How many years of past data was used? Was any aging applied?

Thanks!

[Crow]

MikeG adjustments allowed as technical, immediate, presumably not time based advantage.

Other late entry would be considered today, maybe early tomorrow, especially for new participants, unlikely to not after.

[DQuinn1575]

Pelton minutes applied. Each stat is regressed to the same avg departure from 41.0 -- 6.5, which was the middle ground occupied by the BPM projections.

Code: Select all

west  eWin    PER    WS    BPM      east   eWin    PER    WS    BPM
Dal   52.5   53.4   47.6   49.9      Atl   38.8   44.6   41.2   40.8
Den   50.9   49.4   47.5   47.0      Bos   52.6   52.9   56.9   55.9
GSW   41.1   40.4   44.4   46.1      Brk   31.4   30.4   33.9   29.4
Hou   47.2   43.6   43.7   45.0      Cha   31.1   34.4   29.6   28.5
LAC   31.6   35.1   44.0   40.6      Chi   34.4   34.4   35.2   34.8
LAL   36.6   37.3   38.4   39.3      Cle   45.0   43.8   46.1   45.9
Mem   43.1   41.9   34.3   41.3      Det   33.2   32.8   31.6   31.8
Min   53.5   46.4   50.6   50.3      Ind   41.2   48.2   42.7   43.2
NOP   44.0   44.5   43.9   44.6      Mia   45.1   41.2   43.0   43.5
OKC   49.4   52.5   55.3   54.7      Mil   36.6   35.5   39.6   38.3
Phx   45.6   48.3   47.1   47.2      NYK   40.9   38.8   43.8   43.0
Por   31.2   28.1   26.0   27.3      Orl   39.1   34.2   43.9   41.1
Sac   47.6   48.4   46.6   49.2      Phl   52.9   52.7   46.2   45.9
SAS   36.4   37.5   34.1   36.3      Tor   30.3   32.5   32.2   31.9
Uta   32.6   33.6   32.1   29.1      Was   34.1   33.4   28.2   28.2
avg   42.9   42.7   42.4   43.2      avg   39.1   39.3   39.6   38.8

Leaving my earlier slate up for now, since I haven't got feedback whether this late submission is acceptable.

If it matters, I'm fine with counting an entry when only 2 games have played and there is no update based on info (injury, signing etc.) since the technical due date.

[Mike G]

Alrighty then. It looks like this so far. Please catch errors as you find them.

Code: Select all

east   eWin    perW    WShr    bpmW   emin  DQin  TmTj   medi  Crow  dtka
Atl    38.8    44.6    41.2    40.8    34    39    36    37.7    35    41
Bos    52.6    52.9    56.9    55.9    62    61    56    60.8    59    60
Brk    31.4    30.4    33.9    29.4    23    29    23    25.8    18    26
Cha    31.1    34.4    29.6    28.5    33    30    25    23.5    31    29
Chi    34.4    34.4    35.2    34.8    27    28    30    25.1    29    30
Cle    45.0    43.8    46.1    45.9    49    48    47    50.1    50    52
Det    33.2    32.8    31.6    31.8    28    26    31    25.6    27    28
Ind    41.2    48.2    42.7    43.2    44    42    43    47.0    47    46
Mia    45.1    41.2    43.0    43.5    47    42    41    42.3    40    43
Mil    36.6    35.5    39.6    38.3    48    49    44    43.7    48    50
NYK    40.9    38.8    43.8    43.0    58    43    49    48.4    53    50
Orl    39.1    34.2    43.9    41.1    42    43    42    47.5    49    46
Phl    52.9    52.7    46.2    45.9    43    47    50    55.1    46    47
Tor    30.3    32.5    32.2    31.9    32    29    28    29.4    25    30
Was    34.1    33.4    28.2    28.2    19    14    14    17.5    19    21

west   eWin    perW    WShr    bpmW   emin  DQin  TmTj   medi  Crow  dtka
Dal    52.5    53.4    47.6    49.9    43    56    51    46.5    51    47
Den    50.9    49.4    47.5    47.0    53    49    45    51.3    49    51
GSW    41.1    40.4    44.4    46.1    47    49    48    48.4    52    45
Hou    47.2    43.6    43.7    45.0    33    36    43    46.1    44    38
LAC    31.6    35.1    44.0    40.6    32    45    36    35.4    33    40
LAL    36.6    37.3    38.4    39.3    42    43    44    39.4    44    44
Mem    43.1    41.9    34.3    41.3    48    45    40    42.5    49    43
Min    53.5    46.4    50.6    50.3    57    55    47    52.0    51    50
NOP    44.0    44.5    43.9    44.6    49    45    43    49.4    48    42
OKC    49.4    52.5    55.3    54.7    58    61    58    62.0    54    54
Phx    45.6    48.3    47.1    47.2    46    43    50    49.9    48    49
Por    31.2    28.1    26.0    27.3    23    26    23    23.9    26    22
Sac    47.6    48.4    46.6    49.2    44    47    46    42.0    50    47
SAS    36.4    37.5    34.1    36.3    38    31    33    30.6    29    31
Uta    32.6    33.6    32.1    29.1    28    29    26    31.1    26    29
total  1230    1230    1230    1230  1230  1230  1192    1230  1230  1231

Kavana is one win over, and Teemo is waaay under. Also Denver has 83 games.

If last year's Wins repeat this year, we will rank like this:

Code: Select all

.    avg err   rmse
dtka    4.63    6.1
DQin    4.93    6.3
medi    4.95    6.5
avgA    5.14    6.7
TmTj    5.27    7.0
Crow    5.47    7.6
WShr    5.51    6.8
emin    5.93    8.2
bpmW    6.16    7.6
eWin    7.67    9.4
perW    8.13    9.7

At this point, what you see here is how closely our projections follow last season's records.
Wins for PER, WS, BPM, and eWins are from last year's numbers and Kevin Pelton's minutes.

[Crow]

Fwiw, BRef projections have begun. Look very regressed to mean.

But 10 games in will roll around and offer a better guess.

Super slow starts and / or tough opponents and breaks by Bucks, Sixers and Heat. Of course, there are worse but these are notables.

Sixers outside Lowry have no other positive BPMs outside 6 minutes from McCain.

Heat have no positive starters.

Bucks basically negative after the third guy.

[Mike G]

If you gave every team 41 wins, you would be in 4th place.
After 2-3 games:

Code: Select all

.     avg err   rmse
WShr    5.92    7.18
bpmW    6.07    7.24
eWin    6.41    8.28
perW    6.60    8.12
avgA    7.02    8.23
TmTj    7.40    9.17
dtka    7.50    8.91
DQin    7.88    9.90
emin    8.22    9.84
Crow    8.64    9.93
medi    8.80   10.45

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

[Crow]

Well, volatile in the beginning; but thanks for the reporting.

I think I took some extreme positions and did little hedging. So I could be headed to one tail or the other.

I am starting way off on Hawks, Sixers, Nuggets and Kings. But long way to go.

[TeemoTeejay]

In hindsight I probably shouldnt have just used A sites (I think i used numberfire or rotofire? not sure) minutes projections and adjusted nothing else lol

I wanna see how it does versus LEBRON, EPM, and Vegas with those minutes projections too, but honestly the fan in me fully thinks/thought the lakers will win 55 or so games this year