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Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2024 10:42 am
by v-zero
mtamada wrote: ↑Mon Oct 21, 2024 4:36 pm
...
The Cleveland and Memphis numbers are also clearly wrong. I imagine the right and left columns have been switched for those teams.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2024 2:33 pm
by Crow
Atlanta Hawks 35
Brooklyn Nets 18
Boston Celtics 59
Charlotte Hornets 31
Chicago Bulls 29
Cleveland Cavaliers 50
Dallas Mavericks 51
Denver Nuggets 49
Detroit Pistons 27
Golden State Warriors 52
Houston Rockets 44
Indiana Pacers 47
LA Clippers 33
Los Angeles Lakers 44
Memphis Grizzlies 49
Miami Heat 40
Milwaukee Bucks 48
Minnesota Timberwolves 51
New Orleans Pelicans 48
New York Knicks 53
Oklahoma City Thunder 54
Orlando Magic 49
Philadelphia 76ers 46
Phoenix Suns 48
Portland Trail Blazers 26
San Antonio Spurs 29
Sacramento Kings 50
Toronto Raptors 25
Utah Jazz 26
Washington Wizards 19
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2024 8:01 pm
by dtkavana
OK, I have finally gotten my copy/paste skills down. Here are the final, correct, CraftedNBA Projections
Team Record
Boston Celtics 60
Milwaukee Bucks 50
Toronto Raptors 30
Phoenix Suns 49
Philadelphia 76ers 47
Golden State Warriors 45
Miami Heat 43
Los Angeles Clippers 40
Memphis Grizzlies 43
Minnesota Timberwolves 50
Denver Nuggets 51
Orlando Magic 46
Dallas Mavericks 47
Cleveland Cavaliers 52
New York Knicks 50
Utah Jazz 29
New Orleans Pelicans 42
Oklahoma City Thunder 54
Atlanta Hawks 41
San Antonio Spurs 31
Los Angeles Lakers 44
Chicago Bulls 30
Brooklyn Nets 26
Charlotte Hornets 29
Detroit Pistons 28
Washington Wizards 21
Portland Trail Blazers 22
Sacramento Kings 47
Indiana Pacers 46
Houston Rockets 38
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2024 9:05 pm
by Crow
wfordh,
Thanks for the KP minute estimates.
Might be useful here for metric tests not submitted or ongoing thru season and in some other applications.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2024 4:50 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2024 9:05 pm
wfordh,
Thanks for the KP minute estimates...
Yeah thanks.
For several years I've asked if anyone can find these, and this year I did not bother.
Since a road crew cut thru my phone/internet cable, I'm in a public place to get online. The KP minutes are downloaded, and I'll try to switch out the minutes I assigned and re-submit my predictions by the weekend. If any object, I won't.
It looked like Pelton was optimistic with his minutes, with 30 players expected at 2500+. But last year there were 31.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2024 3:11 pm
by Mike G
Pelton minutes applied. Each stat is regressed to the same avg departure from 41.0 -- 6.5, which was the middle ground occupied by the BPM projections.
Code: Select all
west eWin PER WS BPM east eWin PER WS BPM
Dal 52.5 53.4 47.6 49.9 Atl 38.8 44.6 41.2 40.8
Den 50.9 49.4 47.5 47.0 Bos 52.6 52.9 56.9 55.9
GSW 41.1 40.4 44.4 46.1 Brk 31.4 30.4 33.9 29.4
Hou 47.2 43.6 43.7 45.0 Cha 31.1 34.4 29.6 28.5
LAC 31.6 35.1 44.0 40.6 Chi 34.4 34.4 35.2 34.8
LAL 36.6 37.3 38.4 39.3 Cle 45.0 43.8 46.1 45.9
Mem 43.1 41.9 34.3 41.3 Det 33.2 32.8 31.6 31.8
Min 53.5 46.4 50.6 50.3 Ind 41.2 48.2 42.7 43.2
NOP 44.0 44.5 43.9 44.6 Mia 45.1 41.2 43.0 43.5
OKC 49.4 52.5 55.3 54.7 Mil 36.6 35.5 39.6 38.3
Phx 45.6 48.3 47.1 47.2 NYK 40.9 38.8 43.8 43.0
Por 31.2 28.1 26.0 27.3 Orl 39.1 34.2 43.9 41.1
Sac 47.6 48.4 46.6 49.2 Phl 52.9 52.7 46.2 45.9
SAS 36.4 37.5 34.1 36.3 Tor 30.3 32.5 32.2 31.9
Uta 32.6 33.6 32.1 29.1 Was 34.1 33.4 28.2 28.2
avg 42.9 42.7 42.4 43.2 avg 39.1 39.3 39.6 38.8
Leaving my earlier slate up for now, since I haven't got feedback whether this late submission is acceptable.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2024 3:40 pm
by eminence
Presuming there's no Dejounte injury update or anything, I have no problem with a prediction coming in now.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2024 3:41 pm
by DSMok1
Those are interesting statistical projections.
They seem a little narrower than I would have expected.
Was any regression to the mean applied? How many years of past data was used? Was any aging applied?
Thanks!
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2024 5:41 pm
by Crow
MikeG adjustments allowed as technical, immediate, presumably not time based advantage.
Other late entry would be considered today, maybe early tomorrow, especially for new participants, unlikely to not after.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 25, 2024 4:19 pm
by DQuinn1575
Mike G wrote: ↑Thu Oct 24, 2024 3:11 pm
Pelton minutes applied. Each stat is regressed to the same avg departure from 41.0 -- 6.5, which was the middle ground occupied by the BPM projections.
Code: Select all
west eWin PER WS BPM east eWin PER WS BPM
Dal 52.5 53.4 47.6 49.9 Atl 38.8 44.6 41.2 40.8
Den 50.9 49.4 47.5 47.0 Bos 52.6 52.9 56.9 55.9
GSW 41.1 40.4 44.4 46.1 Brk 31.4 30.4 33.9 29.4
Hou 47.2 43.6 43.7 45.0 Cha 31.1 34.4 29.6 28.5
LAC 31.6 35.1 44.0 40.6 Chi 34.4 34.4 35.2 34.8
LAL 36.6 37.3 38.4 39.3 Cle 45.0 43.8 46.1 45.9
Mem 43.1 41.9 34.3 41.3 Det 33.2 32.8 31.6 31.8
Min 53.5 46.4 50.6 50.3 Ind 41.2 48.2 42.7 43.2
NOP 44.0 44.5 43.9 44.6 Mia 45.1 41.2 43.0 43.5
OKC 49.4 52.5 55.3 54.7 Mil 36.6 35.5 39.6 38.3
Phx 45.6 48.3 47.1 47.2 NYK 40.9 38.8 43.8 43.0
Por 31.2 28.1 26.0 27.3 Orl 39.1 34.2 43.9 41.1
Sac 47.6 48.4 46.6 49.2 Phl 52.9 52.7 46.2 45.9
SAS 36.4 37.5 34.1 36.3 Tor 30.3 32.5 32.2 31.9
Uta 32.6 33.6 32.1 29.1 Was 34.1 33.4 28.2 28.2
avg 42.9 42.7 42.4 43.2 avg 39.1 39.3 39.6 38.8
Leaving my earlier slate up for now, since I haven't got feedback whether this late submission is acceptable.
If it matters, I'm fine with counting an entry when only 2 games have played and there is no update based on info (injury, signing etc.) since the technical due date.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:35 pm
by Mike G
Alrighty then. It looks like this so far. Please catch errors as you find them.
Code: Select all
east eWin perW WShr bpmW emin DQin TmTj medi Crow dtka
Atl 38.8 44.6 41.2 40.8 34 39 36 37.7 35 41
Bos 52.6 52.9 56.9 55.9 62 61 56 60.8 59 60
Brk 31.4 30.4 33.9 29.4 23 29 23 25.8 18 26
Cha 31.1 34.4 29.6 28.5 33 30 25 23.5 31 29
Chi 34.4 34.4 35.2 34.8 27 28 30 25.1 29 30
Cle 45.0 43.8 46.1 45.9 49 48 47 50.1 50 52
Det 33.2 32.8 31.6 31.8 28 26 31 25.6 27 28
Ind 41.2 48.2 42.7 43.2 44 42 43 47.0 47 46
Mia 45.1 41.2 43.0 43.5 47 42 41 42.3 40 43
Mil 36.6 35.5 39.6 38.3 48 49 44 43.7 48 50
NYK 40.9 38.8 43.8 43.0 58 43 49 48.4 53 50
Orl 39.1 34.2 43.9 41.1 42 43 42 47.5 49 46
Phl 52.9 52.7 46.2 45.9 43 47 50 55.1 46 47
Tor 30.3 32.5 32.2 31.9 32 29 28 29.4 25 30
Was 34.1 33.4 28.2 28.2 19 14 14 17.5 19 21
west eWin perW WShr bpmW emin DQin TmTj medi Crow dtka
Dal 52.5 53.4 47.6 49.9 43 56 51 46.5 51 47
Den 50.9 49.4 47.5 47.0 53 49 45 51.3 49 51
GSW 41.1 40.4 44.4 46.1 47 49 48 48.4 52 45
Hou 47.2 43.6 43.7 45.0 33 36 43 46.1 44 38
LAC 31.6 35.1 44.0 40.6 32 45 36 35.4 33 40
LAL 36.6 37.3 38.4 39.3 42 43 44 39.4 44 44
Mem 43.1 41.9 34.3 41.3 48 45 40 42.5 49 43
Min 53.5 46.4 50.6 50.3 57 55 47 52.0 51 50
NOP 44.0 44.5 43.9 44.6 49 45 43 49.4 48 42
OKC 49.4 52.5 55.3 54.7 58 61 58 62.0 54 54
Phx 45.6 48.3 47.1 47.2 46 43 50 49.9 48 49
Por 31.2 28.1 26.0 27.3 23 26 23 23.9 26 22
Sac 47.6 48.4 46.6 49.2 44 47 46 42.0 50 47
SAS 36.4 37.5 34.1 36.3 38 31 33 30.6 29 31
Uta 32.6 33.6 32.1 29.1 28 29 26 31.1 26 29
total 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1192 1230 1230 1231
Kavana is one win over, and Teemo is waaay under. Also Denver has 83 games.
If last year's Wins repeat this year, we will rank like this:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
dtka 4.63 6.1
DQin 4.93 6.3
medi 4.95 6.5
avgA 5.14 6.7
TmTj 5.27 7.0
Crow 5.47 7.6
WShr 5.51 6.8
emin 5.93 8.2
bpmW 6.16 7.6
eWin 7.67 9.4
perW 8.13 9.7
At this point, what you see here is how closely our projections follow last season's records.
Wins for PER, WS, BPM, and eWins are from last year's numbers and Kevin Pelton's minutes.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:42 pm
by Crow
Fwiw, BRef projections have begun. Look very regressed to mean.
But 10 games in will roll around and offer a better guess.
Super slow starts and / or tough opponents and breaks by Bucks, Sixers and Heat. Of course, there are worse but these are notables.
Sixers outside Lowry have no other positive BPMs outside 6 minutes from McCain.
Heat have no positive starters.
Bucks basically negative after the third guy.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:55 pm
by Mike G
If you gave every team 41 wins, you would be in 4th place.
After 2-3 games:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
WShr 5.92 7.18
bpmW 6.07 7.24
eWin 6.41 8.28
perW 6.60 8.12
avgA 7.02 8.23
TmTj 7.40 9.17
dtka 7.50 8.91
DQin 7.88 9.90
emin 8.22 9.84
Crow 8.64 9.93
medi 8.80 10.45
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:58 pm
by Crow
Well, volatile in the beginning; but thanks for the reporting.
I think I took some extreme positions and did little hedging. So I could be headed to one tail or the other.
I am starting way off on Hawks, Sixers, Nuggets and Kings. But long way to go.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 28, 2024 5:41 am
by TeemoTeejay
In hindsight I probably shouldnt have just used A sites (I think i used numberfire or rotofire? not sure) minutes projections and adjusted nothing else lol
I wanna see how it does versus LEBRON, EPM, and Vegas with those minutes projections too, but honestly the fan in me fully thinks/thought the lakers will win 55 or so games this year