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Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Sat Jan 11, 2025 9:26 pm
by Mike G
Season 45% complete; all with 200+ minutes:
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
4.2 Yves Missi NOP 1039 .574 10.3 11.0 1.5 .7 1.6 2.0 .91
3.4 Alex Sarr Was 868 .484 11.3 8.2 2.3 .8 2.1 2.1 .82
3.2 Zach Edey Mem 511 .625 16.7 12.5 1.3 1.1 2.7 1.9 1.41
2.7 Jaylen Wells Mem 979 .562 14.5 4.9 2.0 .7 1.7 .2 .61
2.6 Jared McCain Phl 592 .583 19.2 3.5 3.1 .9 2.2 .0 .92
2.3 Donovan Clingan Por 467 .570 10.3 13.1 1.0 1.0 2.5 3.3 1.09
2.3 Dalton Knecht LAL 790 .587 14.0 5.3 1.3 .7 .9 .1 .62
2.3 Stephon Castle SAS 886 .467 12.5 3.3 4.5 1.2 2.6 .4 .56
2.1 Tr Da Silva Orl 948 .516 11.3 6.4 2.2 .5 1.3 .3 .52
2.0 Za Risacher Atl 909 .489 12.0 5.2 1.4 1.1 1.8 .8 .49
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.8 Jonathan Mogbo Tor 573 .520 8.4 9.1 2.6 1.6 1.9 1.0 .71
1.7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 561 .597 14.0 3.8 3.0 1.3 1.7 .2 .67
1.6 Kyle Filipowski Uta 455 .559 9.7 9.8 2.9 1.1 2.2 .3 .72
1.5 Ryan Dunn Phx 625 .529 10.2 5.6 1.3 .9 .9 1.3 .52
1.5 Kel'el Ware Mia 248 .654 16.9 8.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.3 1.29
1.4 Ron Holland Det 606 .552 12.2 6.5 1.3 1.2 2.0 .3 .51
1.3 Ca Carrington Was 1080 .521 8.3 4.6 3.6 .9 2.0 .3 .26
1.1 Jamison Battle Tor 420 .641 13.5 4.8 1.8 .3 1.0 .3 .57
.9 Matas Buzelis Chi 462 .483 9.4 6.3 1.0 .7 1.5 2.2 .44
.9 Tidjane Salaün Cha 591 .435 6.8 8.0 1.7 1.1 1.5 .4 .31
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.9 Oso Ighodaro Phx 465 .575 7.3 8.0 1.8 .9 1.3 .7 .39
.7 Ja'Kobe Walter Tor 451 .486 10.3 4.6 2.0 1.0 1.6 .5 .33
.6 Kyshawn George Was 792 .437 6.6 5.1 2.2 1.0 1.7 .9 .15
.5 Jamal Shead Tor 539 .496 8.4 2.4 5.7 1.4 3.2 .3 .23
.5 Pelle Larsson Mia 308 .573 10.1 3.8 2.6 1.2 1.2 .1 .36
.4 Reed Sheppard Hou 349 .413 7.5 3.7 2.9 1.5 1.7 1.0 .25
.2 Keaton Wallace Atl 248 .514 7.9 3.0 3.2 1.7 2.3 .8 .19
.2 Dillon Jones OKC 210 .396 6.5 6.7 2.4 .6 1.4 .3 .19
.1 Johnny Furphy Ind 212 .513 7.5 4.5 1.1 1.3 1.4 .9 .13
-.3 Isaiah Collier Uta 526 .364 3.8 4.7 6.0 1.3 4.4 .3 -.11
-.4 Cody Williams Uta 417 .400 4.2 4.1 1.7 .9 1.4 .7 -.18
Rookies projecting to total ~49 eWins
And here with some other stats:
Code: Select all
rookies tm Min e484 PER ws/48 BPM
Carrington Was 1080 .26 8.5 .001 -4.8
Missi NOP 1039 .91 16.3 .104 -2.8
Wells Mem 979 .61 11.0 .092 -2.0
Da Silva Orl 948 .52 9.8 .072 -2.7
Risacher Atl 909 .49 9.8 .005 -5.6
Castle SAS 886 .56 9.8 .000 -5.1
Sarr Was 868 .82 12.6 .005 -3.4
George Was 792 .15 6.6 -.035 -6.1
Knecht LAL 790 .62 12.5 .072 -2.6
Dunn Phx 625 .52 10.3 .044 -3.4
rookies tm Min e484 PER ws/48 BPM
Holland Det 606 .51 10.4 .046 -4.4
McCain Phl 592 .92 15.7 .083 0.5
Salaün Cha 591 .31 7.6 .013 -4.5
Mogbo Tor 573 .71 13.5 .075 -1.4
Mitchell OKC 561 .67 12.6 .137 -1.4
Shead Tor 539 .23 8.8 -.015 -5.2
Collier Uta 526 -.11 3.4 -.109 -8.9
Edey Mem 511 1.41 18.0 .163 -0.3
Clingan Por 467 1.09 16.8 .102 -1.9
Ighodaro Phx 465 .39 10.5 .072 -3.0
rookies tm Min e484 PER ws/48 BPM
Buzelis Chi 462 .44 9.4 .009 -5.3
Filipowski Uta 455 .72 12.0 .063 -2.0
Walter Tor 451 .33 8.9 -.004 -5.3
Battle Tor 420 .57 13.3 .093 0.1
Williams Uta 417 -.18 3.9 -.036 -6.3
Sheppard Hou 349 .25 7.2 .028 -3.0
Larsson Mia 308 .36 10.1 .095 -3.8
Ware Mia 248 1.29 19.3 .159 1.1
Wallace Atl 248 .19 8.6 .009 -3.6
Furphy Ind 212 .13 8.6 .031 -3.3
Jones OKC 210 .19 6.3 .034 -6.2
Code: Select all
NBA e484 PER ws/48 BPM
average 1.00 15.0 .100 0.0
"zero" .00 5.75 .000 -5.25
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Sun Jan 12, 2025 9:47 pm
by Crow
K Ware the new rookie leader by BPM, among those with significant minutes. Edey still the real #1 by Darko.
Castle fades to 32nd in draft class by BPM. 58th among all rookies on Darko projection.
Sarr 24th on BPM, 73rd on Darko.
So methods matter and don't always agree.
Missi, 19th on BPM, 10th on Darko.
Risacher 37th on BPM, 55th on Darko.
Carrington 30th on BPM, 72nd on Darko.
Mogbo similarly ranked across metrics.
Degree and method of defensive inclusion is a significant factor in rating differences.
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2025 12:36 am
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 9:47 pm
Sarr 24th on BPM, 73rd on Darko.
Carrington 30th on BPM, 72nd on Darko.
So you are including ratings for players with fewer than 10 minutes played.
Does Darko assume a guy who never plays is probably an average NBA player?
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2025 3:29 am
by Crow
If I am looking at very top or just one guy, I will usually take out the small minute guys. If I am looking at full class, I probably won't, simply to save a little time. The exact numbers are affected but the general impression is about the same.
Darko assumes players are as good as their draft rank suggests (or below that if undrafted) and then gradually changes as actual come in. A low minute guy will be near his draft estimate until he has enough minutes and performance to change that much.
There are 13 rookies who have played but under 100 minutes. Take the appropriate number of them out and the ranks will change modestly.
But staying at low minutes is a bad sign and will tend over time to hurt the Darko rating.
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2025 4:12 pm
by Mike G
Every year that I've been doing this, I notice the projected (to full season) rookie eWins total rises during the season. They often get better during their first year, and always (as a group) get more minutes.
At least since the pandemic, I've been consistent about noting the % of the season that's completed at the time of my reports. Looking back, there's always been a consistent rise in rookie productions during the season.
So I've gone back thru the archives and entered these, % of season and 'projections' converted to % of ultimate season eWins.
And here are 4 years of reports summarized; along with an 'expected' ultimate season eWins divisor, from this formula:
expected = projected/(%sea*.43 + .57)
Code: Select all
yr %sea proj %eW form
21 .18 47 .65 .65
21 .31 51 .71 .71
21 .50 55 .76 .79
21 .63 58 .81 .84
21 1.00 72 1.00 1.00
yr %sea proj %eW form
22 .10 51 .61 .62
22 .15 50 .60 .64
22 .22 51 .61 .67
22 .31 54 .66 .71
22 .44 63 .76 .76
22 .60 68 .82 .83
22 .82 76 .92 .92
22 1.00 83 1.00 1.00
yr %sea proj %eW form
23 .13 41 .66 .63
23 .22 45 .72 .67
23 .29 46 .74 .70
23 .38 49 .78 .73
23 .48 50 .80 .78
23 .59 51 .82 .83
23 .67 53 .85 .86
23 .76 56 .90 .90
23 .85 57 .91 .94
23 .93 59 .95 .97
23 1.00 62 1.00 1.00
yr %sea proj %eW form
24 .24 53 .70 .68
24 .31 56 .74 .71
24 .38 59 .78 .73
24 .44 59 .77 .76
24 .50 60 .79 .79
24 .58 61 .81 .82
24 .64 63 .84 .85
24 .76 67 .89 .90
24 .87 70 .93 .94
24 1.00 75.5 1.00 1.00
Late-covid '20-21 was only 72 games, but %season formula still reasonably fits it.
So this season has been an exception to these steady increases in projection. Zach Edey was leading rookies in eWins, but he missed games. Jared McCain was projecting to 5.2 but is stuck at 1.1
The formula predicts that the current 49 projected eWins will turn out to be 64. In late November, it looked like it would be 79.
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2025 9:35 pm
by Mike G
AllStar break, season at 66%, and rookies total 54 eWins by season's end.
minimum 450 minutes:
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
3.8 Zach Edey Mem .618 15.5 13.4 1.3 1.1 2.4 2.0 1.45
3.3 Yves Missi NOP .561 9.2 10.3 1.4 .6 1.6 1.9 .75
3.0 Stephon Castle SAS .507 14.6 3.7 4.1 1.2 2.7 .4 .70
2.9 Kel'el Ware Mia .596 15.1 10.3 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.25
2.9 Alex Sarr Was .474 10.7 8.4 2.3 .9 1.9 2.1 .82
2.6 Jaylen Wells Mem .574 14.0 4.5 1.9 .8 1.3 .2 .59
2.5 Do. Clingan Por .580 10.4 14.3 1.3 1.0 2.4 3.3 1.21
2.1 Dalton Knecht LAL .593 14.7 5.1 1.2 .6 .8 .1 .65
2.1 Za. Risacher Atl .520 13.3 5.1 1.5 1.1 1.6 .7 .60
2.0 Tr. Da Silva Orl .531 10.6 6.1 2.1 .8 1.3 .4 .50
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.9 K Filipowski Uta .579 10.5 9.4 2.7 1.0 1.9 .3 .74
1.6 Jared McCain Phl .583 18.5 3.4 3.0 .9 2.2 .0 .87
1.5 Jonathan Mogbo Tor .523 8.5 8.3 2.7 1.5 1.7 1.0 .67
1.5 Ryan Dunn Phx .522 10.2 6.1 1.4 .8 .8 1.0 .51
1.4 C Carrington Was .525 8.4 4.5 3.7 .9 1.9 .2 .28
1.4 Matas Buzelis Chi .551 11.7 5.9 1.0 .6 1.4 1.9 .55
1.3 Ron Holland Det .523 11.1 6.1 1.5 1.5 1.9 .3 .48
1.2 Ajay Mitchell OKC .597 13.7 3.8 3.0 1.4 1.7 .2 .67
1.1 Isaiah Collier Uta .467 7.3 4.7 7.0 1.3 4.3 .3 .32
1.0 Kyshawn George Was .494 7.9 5.0 2.2 1.2 1.8 .8 .25
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.9 Jamison Battle Tor .629 13.5 4.8 1.7 .4 .8 .3 .58
.8 Ja'Kobe Walter Tor .500 10.5 4.5 2.0 1.3 1.5 .3 .39
.8 Justin Edwards Phl .575 10.5 4.8 1.8 1.3 1.2 .4 .42
.7 Tidjane Salaün Cha .436 6.9 7.6 1.7 1.1 1.5 .4 .30
.7 Jamal Shead Tor .515 9.3 2.3 5.4 1.1 2.9 .2 .26
.6 Oso Ighodaro Phx .567 7.0 7.1 1.8 1.0 1.3 .8 .33
.4 Reed Sheppard Hou .408 7.2 4.3 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.0 .28
.4 Pelle Larsson Mia .555 9.1 3.8 2.0 1.1 1.0 .3 .25
-.4 Cody Williams Uta .400 4.1 3.6 1.8 1.0 1.5 .6 -.24
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2025 1:18 am
by Crow
Edey and Ware BPM neutral. Sarr and Missi -3, Castle almost -4.
Understand that Castle's boxscore got better recently but it still averages into a -4 so far.
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:02 pm
by Mike G
BPM seems to dock centers a couple of points, just so that this position doesn't look better than others.
I think maybe they don't get commensurate minutes because they aren't as versatile. A F may swing to C for a small-ball situation, but there aren't many situations for a C to play F.
But while they are on the floor, they tend to be doing important stuff. Does that make sense?
SF and SG -- aka 'wings' -- are not similarly benched by any opponent maneuvers, in the modern game. So they get minutes and have to share more of the production stats.
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2025 5:31 pm
by Mike G
At 75% of the season, rookies total 56 projected eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
4.0 Zach Edey Mem .624 15.3 13.9 1.2 1.0 2.4 2.1 1.44
3.4 Yves Missi NOP .553 9.5 10.6 1.4 .7 1.6 1.9 .78
3.2 Stephon Castle SAS .504 14.8 4.1 4.0 1.2 2.7 .3 .74
3.1 Alex Sarr Was .478 11.5 8.5 2.4 1.0 1.9 2.1 .91
3.1 Kel'el Ware Mia .604 14.7 10.8 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.23
2.8 Donovan Clingan Por .577 10.5 14.2 1.4 1.0 2.4 3.2 1.22
2.7 Jaylen Wells Mem .576 13.9 4.6 1.9 .8 1.3 .1 .60
2.4 Kyle Filipowski Uta .598 12.3 9.7 2.8 1.0 2.3 .3 .88
2.4 Za. Risacher Atl .526 13.5 5.4 1.5 1.1 1.8 .7 .64
2.1 Dalton Knecht LAL .591 14.6 5.0 1.2 .7 .8 .1 .65
e82 11-20 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.9 Tristan Da Silva Orl .536 10.7 6.0 2.2 .8 1.3 .4 .50
1.8 Bub Carrington Was .519 8.6 4.8 3.9 .9 1.9 .3 .36
1.5 Jonathan Mogbo Tor .510 8.0 8.0 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.0 .61
1.5 Matas Buzelis Chi .538 11.6 5.9 1.2 .5 1.4 1.7 .54
1.4 Jared McCain Phl .583 18.3 3.4 3.0 .9 2.2 .0 .84
1.4 Isaiah Collier Uta .464 7.7 4.6 7.1 1.3 4.2 .3 .38
1.3 Quinten Post GSW .613 17.9 8.6 2.8 .8 1.9 .7 1.31
1.3 Kyshawn George Was .485 8.0 5.3 2.5 1.3 2.0 .9 .32
1.3 Ron Holland Det .538 11.2 5.7 1.5 1.4 1.7 .3 .49
1.2 Ryan Dunn Phx .509 9.6 6.2 1.3 .7 .9 1.1 .46
e82 21-30 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.9 Ajay Mitchell OKC .597 13.0 3.7 2.9 1.3 1.7 .2 .61
.9 Ja'Kobe Walter Tor .501 10.3 4.9 1.7 1.3 1.6 .3 .37
.7 Jamison Battle Tor .629 13.2 4.7 1.7 .4 .8 .3 .55
.7 Rob Dillingham Min .513 12.4 3.1 5.5 1.3 3.2 .1 .57
.7 Justin Edwards Phl .571 10.3 4.6 1.6 1.2 1.3 .4 .38
.7 Jamal Shead Tor .511 9.0 2.3 5.4 1.1 3.0 .2 .25
.6 Adem Bona Phl .681 8.7 8.5 .7 .6 2.0 2.2 .47
.6 Karlo Matković NOP .601 9.2 8.1 1.4 .8 2.0 2.1 .56
.5 Oso Ighodaro Phx .567 6.7 7.0 1.8 .9 1.2 .8 .31
.5 Tidjane Salaün Cha .430 6.4 7.4 1.5 .9 1.6 .5 .20
e82 31-36 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.5 Jaylon Tyson Cle .555 9.7 6.6 2.7 .8 1.7 .2 .48
.5 Reed Sheppard Hou .432 8.0 4.0 2.7 1.7 1.7 .9 .33
.4 KJ Simpson Cha .422 8.3 4.8 3.6 1.4 2.3 .3 .33
.4 Pelle Larsson Mia .558 9.3 3.6 2.1 1.0 .9 .3 .29
.4 Keaton Wallace Atl .543 9.1 2.8 3.5 1.6 2.2 .6 .30
-.3 Cody Williams Uta .430 5.1 3.8 1.8 .9 1.6 .5 -.14
36 with >360 minutes
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2025 8:04 pm
by Crow
6 of top 8 here are centers.
5 of top 7 by Darko are centers, but includes Ighodaro and Post instead of Missi and Sarr. By Darko, Missi 54th, Sarr 77th .
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Sun Mar 09, 2025 4:27 pm
by Mike G
Piecing together the player updates, you may see how each major rookie has evolved over the season.
It's "% of season" if you ignore the decimal. Per 36 minute rates.
Code: Select all
Mem Zach Edey
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .571 15.9 10.7 .6 1.2 1.7 .8 1.12 3.5
.11 .649 20.7 12.4 .9 1.0 2.6 1.7 1.65 5.4
.17 .642 19.7 12.0 1.1 1.6 2.9 1.8 1.64 5.6
.23 .642 19.8 12.1 1.1 1.6 2.9 1.8 1.64 4.1
.29 .642 19.8 11.9 1.1 1.5 2.9 1.8 1.61 3.1
.38 .634 17.8 12.6 1.4 1.3 2.6 1.9 1.60 3.7
.45 .625 16.7 12.5 1.3 1.1 2.7 1.9 1.41 3.2
.66 .618 15.5 13.4 1.3 1.1 2.4 2.0 1.45 3.8
.75 .624 15.3 13.9 1.2 1.0 2.4 2.1 1.44 4.0
NOP Yves Missi
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .457 7.6 9.7 2.1 .9 1.1 2.5 .76 2.8
.11 .487 6.8 9.2 1.9 .8 1.0 2.4 .64 2.4
.17 .561 9.1 10.6 1.9 .9 1.7 1.7 .82 3.3
.23 .558 9.8 10.9 1.8 1.0 1.7 1.8 .90 3.5
.29 .563 11.1 11.6 1.4 .9 1.6 1.8 1.01 4.1
.38 .567 10.4 11.3 1.4 .8 1.6 1.7 .94 4.1
.45 .574 10.3 11.0 1.5 .7 1.6 2.0 .91 4.2
.66 .561 9.2 10.3 1.4 .6 1.6 1.9 .75 3.3
.75 .553 9.5 10.6 1.4 .7 1.6 1.9 .78 3.4
SAS Stephon Castle
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .348 7.0 3.9 3.7 1.1 2.3 .6 .11 .4
.11 .442 10.4 3.9 3.3 1.3 1.5 .5 .45 1.7
.17 .486 12.1 3.7 3.9 1.3 1.9 .5 .60 2.5
.23 .488 13.1 3.7 4.5 1.1 2.3 .6 .67 3.0
.29 .483 12.8 3.4 4.2 1.2 2.5 .5 .58 2.7
.38 .471 12.5 3.5 4.3 1.2 2.5 .5 .57 2.4
.45 .467 12.5 3.3 4.5 1.2 2.6 .4 .56 2.3
.66 .507 14.6 3.7 4.1 1.2 2.7 .4 .70 3.0
.75 .504 14.8 4.1 4.0 1.2 2.7 .3 .74 3.2
Was Alex Sarr
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .471 10.6 8.8 1.7 .8 .9 4.1 1.04 4.4
.11 .435 9.3 8.8 2.4 .8 1.7 3.7 .87 3.7
.17 .426 9.1 7.4 2.4 1.0 1.7 2.9 .73 3.2
.23 .455 10.3 8.3 2.3 1.0 1.9 2.6 .83 3.7
.29 .457 9.7 7.9 2.0 1.0 1.9 2.5 .70 2.9
.38 .482 11.0 7.6 2.2 .9 2.0 2.4 .80 3.4
.45 .484 11.3 8.2 2.3 .8 2.1 2.1 .82 3.4
.66 .474 10.7 8.4 2.3 .9 1.9 2.1 .82 2.9
.75 .478 11.5 8.5 2.4 1.0 1.9 2.1 .91 3.1
Mia Kel'el Ware
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.45 .654 16.9 8.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.3 1.29 1.5
.66 .596 15.1 10.3 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.25 2.9
.75 .604 14.7 10.8 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.23 3.1
Por Donovan Clingan
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .577 9.7 13.5 .0 .7 1.8 4.0 1.00 2.2
.11 .541 8.0 11.6 .4 .7 1.9 4.1 .76 1.8
.17 .597 10.7 11.8 .4 .9 2.0 4.5 1.11 3.1
.23 .569 10.4 13.4 .5 1.1 2.1 4.5 1.26 3.3
.29 .569 10.2 13.7 .5 1.2 2.1 4.5 1.26 2.6
.38 .571 10.2 13.4 .8 1.1 2.5 3.6 1.15 2.5
.45 .570 10.3 13.1 1.0 1.0 2.5 3.3 1.09 2.3
.66 .580 10.4 14.3 1.3 1.0 2.4 3.3 1.21 2.5
.75 .577 10.5 14.2 1.4 1.0 2.4 3.2 1.22 2.8
Mem Jaylen Wells
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .507 12.1 4.8 1.9 .4 1.4 .2 .38 1.6
.11 .517 12.4 4.5 1.9 .6 1.5 .4 .41 1.8
.17 .539 14.2 4.2 1.8 .4 1.4 .4 .52 2.3
.23 .566 15.6 4.3 2.1 .6 1.7 .4 .66 2.9
.29 .575 15.3 4.7 2.0 .6 1.9 .3 .62 2.6
.38 .583 15.3 4.4 2.0 .7 1.7 .2 .65 2.7
.45 .562 14.5 4.9 2.0 .7 1.7 .2 .61 2.7
.66 .574 14.0 4.5 1.9 .8 1.3 .2 .59 2.6
.75 .576 13.9 4.6 1.9 .8 1.3 .1 .60 2.7
Atl Zaccharie Risacher
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .390 8.3 4.5 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.2 .12 .5
.11 .466 11.2 4.7 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.3 .40 1.8
.17 .471 12.0 5.2 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.1 .50 2.3
.23 .484 12.3 5.4 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.0 .57 2.4
.29 .493 12.9 5.3 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.1 .59 2.4
.38 .479 12.1 5.0 1.4 1.1 1.8 .9 .48 1.9
.45 .489 12.0 5.2 1.4 1.1 1.8 .8 .49 2.0
.66 .520 13.3 5.1 1.5 1.1 1.6 .7 .60 2.1
.75 .526 13.5 5.4 1.5 1.1 1.8 .7 .64 2.4
Uta Kyle Filipowski
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .565 10.9 8.8 2.0 .5 2.8 .0 .42 .9
.11 .569 10.2 8.4 3.2 .6 2.3 .0 .54 1.2
.17 .597 13.0 8.4 3.0 .9 1.7 .3 .91 2.7
.23 .564 11.3 9.1 3.2 1.1 1.9 .3 .84 2.1
.29 .559 11.2 8.9 3.1 1.0 1.9 .3 .79 1.6
.38 .570 10.2 9.2 2.9 1.0 2.0 .2 .70 1.4
.45 .559 9.7 9.8 2.9 1.1 2.2 .3 .72 1.6
.66 .579 10.5 9.4 2.7 1.0 1.9 .3 .74 1.9
.75 .598 12.3 9.7 2.8 1.0 2.3 .3 .88 2.4
LAL Dalton Knecht
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .590 13.0 3.2 1.8 .7 1.3 .0 .35 1.0
.11 .500 9.2 3.8 1.6 .7 1.1 .0 .08 .2
.17 .624 14.1 4.1 1.7 .8 .8 .0 .59 2.1
.23 .655 16.0 4.9 1.3 .8 .6 .0 .79 3.1
.29 .597 14.1 5.3 1.4 .8 .8 .1 .66 2.7
.38 .596 14.2 5.5 1.4 .7 .9 .1 .68 2.6
.45 .587 14.0 5.3 1.3 .7 .9 .1 .62 2.3
.66 .593 14.7 5.1 1.2 .6 .8 .1 .65 2.1
.75 .591 14.6 5.0 1.2 .7 .8 .1 .65 2.1
Orl Tristan DaSilva
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.11 .495 9.5 4.2 2.3 .0 .8 .3 .21 .5
.17 .462 8.4 6.0 2.9 .4 .7 .4 .40 1.2
.23 .502 9.9 6.0 2.4 .5 .6 .3 .47 1.6
.29 .510 10.1 6.2 2.1 .6 .8 .3 .47 1.6
.38 .523 11.1 5.5 1.9 .6 1.4 .3 .41 1.5
.45 .516 11.3 6.4 2.2 .5 1.3 .3 .52 2.1
.66 .531 10.6 6.1 2.1 .8 1.3 .4 .50 2.0
.75 .536 10.7 6.0 2.2 .8 1.3 .4 .50 1.9
Was Bub Carrington
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .541 9.8 4.4 4.2 1.2 1.8 .5 .49 2.4
.11 .537 10.0 5.6 4.9 1.4 2.1 .3 .64 3.2
.17 .553 9.8 4.9 4.4 1.4 2.2 .4 .50 2.6
.23 .520 8.8 4.7 4.3 1.4 2.5 .4 .37 1.8
.29 .496 8.4 4.7 3.8 1.2 2.5 .3 .25 1.2
.38 .505 8.2 4.7 3.5 .9 2.3 .3 .19 1.0
.45 .521 8.3 4.6 3.6 .9 2.0 .3 .26 1.3
.66 .525 8.4 4.5 3.7 .9 1.9 .2 .28 1.4
.75 .519 8.6 4.8 3.9 .9 1.9 .3 .36 1.8
Chi Matas Buzelis
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.17 .446 7.6 6.9 .6 1.5 2.4 1.9 .23 .3
.23 .480 9.0 6.3 .5 1.2 2.3 1.9 .24 .5
.29 .525 11.0 6.6 .8 .9 1.9 1.9 .48 1.0
.38 .487 9.8 6.3 1.1 .6 1.5 2.0 .46 1.0
.45 .483 9.4 6.3 1.0 .7 1.5 2.2 .44 .9
.66 .551 11.7 5.9 1.0 .6 1.4 1.9 .55 1.4
.75 .538 11.6 5.9 1.2 .5 1.4 1.7 .54 1.5
Tor Jonathan Mogbo
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.23 .548 9.6 9.4 2.4 1.7 1.8 .9 .80 2.1
.29 .542 10.1 9.6 2.8 1.8 1.9 .9 .90 2.5
.38 .512 8.4 9.0 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.0 .74 2.2
.45 .520 8.4 9.1 2.6 1.6 1.9 1.0 .71 1.8
.66 .523 8.5 8.3 2.7 1.5 1.7 1.0 .67 1.5
.75 .510 8.0 8.0 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.0 .61 1.5
Uta Isaiah Collier
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.17 .542 6.9 4.5 4.2 1.9 3.5 .6 .13 .2
.23 .373 4.5 3.5 5.0 1.7 4.5 .3 -.25 -.5
.29 .350 4.3 3.5 5.4 1.8 4.8 .3 -.27 -.6
.38 .340 3.5 4.2 5.3 1.4 4.9 .4 -.33 -.7
.45 .364 3.8 4.7 6.0 1.3 4.4 .3 -.11 -.3
.66 .467 7.3 4.7 7.0 1.3 4.3 .3 .32 1.1
.75 .464 7.7 4.6 7.1 1.3 4.2 .3 .38 1.4
Phl Jared McCain
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .534 17.5 6.3 2.6 .6 1.5 .0 1.00 2.2
.11 .533 15.9 4.8 2.8 1.0 1.5 .0 .85 2.0
.17 .609 23.2 3.7 3.6 .9 1.6 .0 1.42 5.2
.23 .582 21.1 3.6 3.3 .9 1.9 .0 1.15 4.9
.29 .586 20.4 3.7 3.1 1.0 2.2 .0 1.06 4.6
.38 .583 19.2 3.5 3.1 .9 2.2 .0 .94 3.3
.45 .583 19.2 3.5 3.1 .9 2.2 .0 .92 2.6
.66 .583 18.5 3.4 3.0 .9 2.2 .0 .87 1.6
.75 .583 18.3 3.4 3.0 .9 2.2 .0 .84 1.4
Det Ron Holland
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .522 10.5 6.4 1.1 1.4 1.7 .3 .39 .9
.11 .545 12.1 6.6 .7 1.5 1.4 .2 .55 1.3
.17 .471 9.9 6.9 .9 1.7 1.4 .3 .45 1.2
.23 .480 10.4 6.6 .8 1.4 1.7 .3 .37 1.0
.29 .493 9.9 6.9 1.4 1.3 2.3 .4 .34 .9
.38 .540 11.4 6.7 1.1 1.2 1.9 .3 .46 1.2
.45 .552 12.2 6.5 1.3 1.2 2.0 .3 .51 1.4
.66 .523 11.1 6.1 1.5 1.5 1.9 .3 .48 1.3
.75 .538 11.2 5.7 1.5 1.4 1.7 .3 .49 1.3
Was Kyshawn George
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .342 4.6 5.1 2.5 1.3 1.4 2.2 .17 .7
.11 .450 7.6 5.0 2.6 1.1 1.2 1.8 .35 1.7
.17 .459 7.5 5.0 2.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 .33 1.6
.23 .451 7.2 5.0 2.6 .9 1.2 .9 .24 1.1
.29 .441 6.8 5.2 2.7 .9 1.4 .9 .21 .8
.38 .449 7.0 5.0 2.5 .9 1.4 1.0 .21 .8
.45 .437 6.6 5.1 2.2 1.0 1.7 .9 .15 .6
.66 .494 7.9 5.0 2.2 1.2 1.8 .8 .25 1.0
.75 .485 8.0 5.3 2.5 1.3 2.0 .9 .32 1.3
GSW Quinten Post
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.75 .613 17.9 8.6 2.8 .8 1.9 .7 1.31 1.3
Phx Ryan Dunn
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .603 14.3 4.0 1.4 .9 .6 .6 .62 1.9
.11 .600 13.6 4.7 1.6 .8 .8 .5 .60 1.5
.17 .516 10.6 5.0 1.1 .9 1.1 .9 .35 1.0
.23 .505 10.0 5.1 1.3 1.0 .9 .9 .38 1.1
.29 .500 9.6 5.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 .37 .9
.38 .519 9.9 5.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.3 .44 1.2
.45 .529 10.2 5.6 1.3 .9 .9 1.3 .52 1.5
.66 .522 10.2 6.1 1.4 .8 .8 1.0 .51 1.5
.75 .509 9.6 6.2 1.3 .7 .9 1.1 .46 1.2
OKC Ajay Mitchell
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.23 .558 11.8 3.1 3.2 1.7 1.7 .1 .46 1.3
.29 .556 12.4 3.0 3.2 1.7 1.7 .2 .53 1.5
.38 .593 13.1 3.9 3.2 1.4 1.8 .2 .62 1.7
.45 .597 14.0 3.8 3.0 1.3 1.7 .2 .67 1.7
.66 .597 13.7 3.8 3.0 1.4 1.7 .2 .67 1.2
.75 .597 13.0 3.7 2.9 1.3 1.7 .2 .61 .9
Tor Ja'Kobe Walter
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .217 2.5 8.6 1.5 .0 .0 1.0 .08 .1
.29 .425 9.6 6.5 2.3 1.0 1.9 .4 .39 .5
.38 .488 11.6 5.2 2.1 1.0 1.6 .5 .49 .9
.45 .486 10.3 4.6 2.0 1.0 1.6 .5 .33 .7
.66 .500 10.5 4.5 2.0 1.3 1.5 .3 .39 .8
.75 .501 10.3 4.9 1.7 1.3 1.6 .3 .37 .9
Tor Jamison Battle
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .625 11.8 7.1 1.3 .0 .0 .7 .64 1.4
.11 .540 10.2 6.5 1.5 .0 .5 .5 .39 .9
.17 .598 11.5 5.5 1.6 .0 .7 .3 .41 .9
.23 .650 14.6 5.1 1.7 .3 .7 .5 .71 1.6
.29 .644 13.6 5.2 1.8 .3 .9 .4 .62 1.3
.38 .645 13.3 4.7 1.9 .4 .9 .3 .55 1.2
.45 .641 13.5 4.8 1.8 .3 1.0 .3 .57 1.1
.66 .629 13.5 4.8 1.7 .4 .8 .3 .58 .9
.75 .629 13.2 4.7 1.7 .4 .8 .3 .55 .7
Tor Jamal Shead
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .450 9.2 1.9 6.6 .7 3.6 .3 .18 .6
.11 .475 8.7 2.1 5.9 .7 3.0 .4 .15 .4
.17 .430 7.8 1.9 5.5 .7 3.4 .3 -.07 -.2
.23 .449 8.6 2.3 5.5 1.1 3.1 .2 .12 .3
.29 .456 8.3 2.3 5.4 1.1 3.2 .2 .08 .2
.38 .493 8.6 2.7 5.5 1.3 3.0 .2 .21 .5
.45 .496 8.4 2.4 5.7 1.4 3.2 .3 .23 .5
.66 .515 9.3 2.3 5.4 1.1 2.9 .2 .26 .7
.75 .511 9.0 2.3 5.4 1.1 3.0 .2 .25 .7
Phx Oso Ighodaro
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.17 .667 9.9 8.6 1.1 .8 1.5 .8 .52 1.0
.23 .640 9.3 8.8 1.6 .8 1.4 .7 .56 1.1
.29 .630 8.3 8.2 1.8 .7 1.3 .7 .43 1.0
.38 .610 7.7 8.2 1.6 .9 1.0 .6 .44 1.0
.45 .575 7.3 8.0 1.8 .9 1.3 .7 .39 .9
.66 .567 7.0 7.1 1.8 1.0 1.3 .8 .33 .6
.75 .567 6.7 7.0 1.8 .9 1.2 .8 .31 .5
Cha Tidjane Salaün
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .462 4.9 6.1 1.7 1.0 .6 .0 .08 .1
.11 .367 4.1 6.3 1.5 .9 1.5 .0 -.16 -.4
.17 .306 3.4 7.4 1.9 .7 1.5 .2 -.10 -.2
.23 .459 6.6 7.4 1.7 .8 1.6 .4 .18 .5
.29 .452 7.1 7.9 1.5 1.2 1.5 .3 .29 .8
.38 .441 6.7 7.6 1.7 1.1 1.5 .4 .26 .8
.45 .435 6.8 8.0 1.7 1.1 1.5 .4 .31 .9
.66 .436 6.9 7.6 1.7 1.1 1.5 .4 .30 .7
.75 .430 6.4 7.4 1.5 .9 1.6 .5 .20 .5
Hou Reed Sheppard
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.11 .517 8.8 3.1 4.0 .3 2.2 .3 .11 .2
.17 .482 9.2 3.4 3.5 .9 1.9 .7 .27 .6
.23 .462 9.2 3.0 3.6 1.5 2.0 .8 .32 .7
.29 .455 9.5 3.0 3.3 1.4 1.7 1.0 .36 .7
.38 .413 7.8 3.7 3.0 1.5 1.6 1.0 .26 .5
.45 .413 7.5 3.7 2.9 1.5 1.7 1.0 .25 .4
.66 .408 7.2 4.3 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.0 .28 .4
.75 .432 8.0 4.0 2.7 1.7 1.7 .9 .33 .5
Atl Keaton Wallace
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .714 13.4 3.3 2.2 1.2 1.4 .5 .52 .9
.11 .613 10.7 3.0 2.0 1.8 2.2 1.2 .29 .6
.17 .491 7.4 3.1 3.0 1.6 2.1 1.0 .14 .3
.23 .491 7.3 3.1 3.0 1.7 2.1 1.1 .13 .2
.29 .491 7.6 3.2 3.1 1.6 2.2 1.1 .16 .2
.38 .508 7.5 3.1 3.2 1.5 2.3 .9 .11 .1
.45 .514 7.9 3.0 3.2 1.7 2.3 .8 .19 .2
.75 .543 9.1 2.8 3.5 1.6 2.2 .6 .30 .4
Mia Pelle Larsson
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.17 .629 12.1 2.5 3.1 1.1 1.3 .0 .40 .6
.23 .609 12.5 3.6 2.5 1.1 1.1 .0 .48 .9
.29 .616 12.5 4.2 2.8 1.2 1.1 .0 .58 1.1
.38 .581 10.7 3.8 2.6 1.1 1.2 .0 .38 .6
.45 .573 10.1 3.8 2.6 1.2 1.2 .1 .36 .5
.66 .555 9.1 3.8 2.0 1.1 1.0 .3 .25 .4
.75 .558 9.3 3.6 2.1 1.0 .9 .3 .29 .4
OKC Dillon Jones
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.17 .421 8.7 7.1 2.6 .9 1.9 .3 .35 .4
.29 .431 8.1 7.5 2.6 .7 1.5 .2 .36 .5
.38 .402 7.1 6.9 2.3 .6 1.3 .2 .23 .3
.45 .396 6.5 6.7 2.4 .6 1.4 .3 .19 .2
Uta Cody Williams
%Sea Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
.06 .284 3.2 4.1 1.3 .8 1.3 .3 -.36 -1.4
.11 .345 3.8 4.2 1.7 .9 1.4 .5 -.26 -1.0
.17 .366 4.0 4.3 2.0 .9 1.3 .5 -.21 -.7
.23 .340 3.4 4.5 1.8 .8 1.3 .6 -.26 -.7
.29 .340 3.4 4.5 1.8 .8 1.3 .6 -.25 -.6
.38 .375 3.8 4.5 1.7 .7 1.4 .6 -.25 -.5
.45 .400 4.2 4.1 1.7 .9 1.4 .7 -.18 -.4
.66 .400 4.1 3.6 1.8 1.0 1.5 .6 -.24 -.4
.75 .430 5.1 3.8 1.8 .9 1.6 .5 -.14 -.3
Players who aren't active are indicated by a constant effective shooting%. Other rates still may change due to their relation to team and opponent margins.
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Sun Mar 09, 2025 8:53 pm
by Crow
Edey, generally improved except most notably for usage and turnovers.
A number improved efg% but many also did not.
Nearly all lacking positive impact at this point.
It will be about what they do in yr 2 and 3 and beyond.
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2025 1:38 am
by Mike G
How do you define "positive impact"?
An average player getting big minutes on a very weak team has a large positive impact.
The same player on an elite team would not get so many minutes, or he would be a detriment there.
The Wizards have -12 mov, so any player better than about -2.6 BPM (or any PM) is generally making them a better team.
With some players unavailable most nights, that threshold goes even lower.
The Pels have 2 above-avg players, and until recently they'd missed about half of the season (combined). So most often they have had 4 or 5 below-avg players on the floor. Were they all making the team worse?
Players within 0.2 BPM of average: Jalen Green, D'Angelo Russell, Jaden McDaniels, Jordan Poole, Lauri Markkanen, Michael Porter, Jaylen Brown, Bobby Portis, DeMar DeRozan, Grayson Allen, Malik Monk, Jrue Holiday, Anfernee Simons, Myles Turner, Trae Young, Paul George ...
An average NBA player is a starter, sometimes an allstar. There are 100 players this good. Lesser players also have positive impact.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2025 2:50 am
by Crow
"Positive impact" meant positive impact on major individual metrics to me.
A player can be less negative than other alternatives. Call that positive impact on team if you want. More than one perspective / context for statements.
Re: 2025 Rookies
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2025 9:59 am
by Mike G
OK, just curious. If a team BPM is -2.6, and a -2.0 player enters the lineup, does he have a positive impact?