A Statistical Analysis of Shot Success in Basketball

[Mike G]

Please don't copy the entire post you're replying to. It doesn't do anything but make scrolling an endurance sport here.
I'm about to go through and delete all this repetition, if nobody objects.

[Jaleng22]

That’s cool thanks and please delete some of the earlier comments as well thanks

[Mike G]

Yes, that's the main takeaway—closer shots, like those at the rim, go in more often than long-range ones. I know it's not groundbreaking, but the analysis emphasizes that easy buckets are the way to go when developing strategies to maximize scoring efficiency.

To oversimplify even further, we could suggest that teams should get the ball to their best dunkers, which -- once the ball is in their hands and above the rim -- have a very high chance of going in.

In last year's Finals, the Celtics concentrated on keeping the Mavs' Gafford and Lively (and others) away from the rim; and their shot attempts and even minutes were reduced. Outside shooters keep the defense from packing the middle, so if you have good shooters, that is what works best.

Your paragraph above conflates "shots at the rim" with "easy buckets"; yet it's not easy to create the easy bucket every time down the floor. No coach ever has doubted that easy buckets are the way to go.
You might just tell players to get to the free throw line every time. NBA avg on those attempts is close to 80%

[Jaleng22]

Hi Mike,

Most shots come from the mid range to close range shots. The more you get to the rim the chances of you getting fouled go up. But I still need to include those contextual factors like defense proximity, the player who is playing defense and I think we can determine that. But that’s a good question. I wonder how many free throws a player can get in a game if they focus on those close range shots or layups. I know nowadays players create fouls by arm grabbing and swipe through shooting. But idk how players draw those fouls when they go to the hoop. I know swatting at the ball constitutes as a foul but not all body contact is a foul. For instance LeBron James go the paint but he doesn’t get every foul call.

[Crow]

Do you have league average 3pt fg% for just those over 26 feet? Over 30 ft?