2025 Playoffs: East Conf. Rd 1

[Mike G]

Knicks 4 - 2 Pistons
avg score 108.0 - 106.7
Pyth wins 3.25 - 2.75 , eWins 3.12 - 2.88

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.11  Jalen Brunson   NY   40  .537   27.8   3.8   6.5    .3   2.7   .3   2.22
1.01 Cade Cunningham Det   41  .500   20.8   7.9   6.9   1.6   5.0  1.2   1.96
.74   Karl-A Towns    NY   38  .590   17.1  10.1   1.4   1.2   1.4  1.3   1.57
.64   Jalen Duren    Det   34  .689   12.9  12.3   3.4    .4   1.9  1.8   1.51
.61   Josh Hart       NY   37  .602   11.8   8.9   5.0   1.5   2.2   .8   1.31

.42   Tobias Harris  Det   39  .595   13.1   7.7    .4    .9   1.0  1.1    .87
.38  Ausar Thompson  Det   23  .575   18.0   9.0   1.5   1.9   3.2  1.4   1.35
.37   Mikal Bridges   NY   39  .554   13.7   4.9   1.5   1.4   1.9  1.1    .76
.36   OG Anunoby      NY   42  .545   13.4   4.4    .5   2.2   1.6  1.2    .69
.29  Dennis Schröder Det   27  .615   14.5   2.9   3.8   1.3   1.4   .2    .84

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.11   Malik Beasley  Det   27  .532   13.1   3.1   1.2    .6   1.4   .2    .31
.08   Mi. Robinson    NY   17  .431    4.8  11.0    .3   1.6   1.4  1.2    .41
.05   Paul Reed      Det    9  .636    7.3   9.2    .5   2.8   3.1  1.7    .49
.02   Tim Hardaway   Det   31  .474   11.1   3.5   1.2    .4   1.9   .0    .05
.01  Isaiah Stewart  Det    3  .500    2.4   8.7   1.5    .0    .0  3.3    .27

.00   Cameron Payne   NY    9  .564   11.0   2.4   1.5   2.3   2.5   .0    .03
-.06  Ron Holland    Det    6  .450    7.4   5.6    .0    .0   5.6   .9   -.79
-.06  Landry Shamet   NY    3  .500    3.0    .0    .0    .0   3.4   .0  -1.44
-.09  Miles McBride   NY   16  .359    5.3   2.3   1.7    .7   1.4   .0   -.47

shooting : Det .552 - .543 NY
rebounds: Det 43.8 - 40.0 NY
turnovers: NY 13.0 - 16.5 Det

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. Det      min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . NYK   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Cunningham 248   17.2   .059    3.1   1.96      Anunoby 252   12.9   .095    0.7    .69
Harris     233   13.8   .133    2.0    .87      Brunson 240   21.8   .160    4.9   2.22
Duren      203   18.9   .216    4.2   1.51      Bridges 231   13.1   .082    1.3    .76
Hardaway   188    5.7  -.014   -4.5    .05      Towns   226   17.8   .170    3.0   1.57
Schröder   164   16.5   .166    4.6    .84      Hart    223   16.2   .169    5.4   1.31

Beasley    163   10.6   .052   -0.6    .31     Robinson  99   13.4   .107   -2.9    .41
Thompson   135   15.8   .114    0.5   1.35      McBride  96    1.3  -.075   -7.5   -.47
Reed        53   14.8   .121    2.0    .49      Payne    53    8.8   .044   -4.8    .03
Holland     34    -.5  -.139  -12.7   -.79      Shamet   19   -3.2  -.134  -11.9  -1.44
Stewart     19    8.4   .132   -2.8    .27                     

. Det       min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . NYK    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
totals     1440  13.8   .099    1.10   .96      totals  1440  14.6   .112    1.42  1.04
min correl        .25    .11    .31    .50    min correl       .72    .69    .87    .78

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html

[Mike G]

Other than Indy dusting the Lillard-less Bucks, the East (ranked by BPM) has gone as seeding would have predicted:

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east 1st round summary stats     correlation w player min.
tm     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      PER  WS/48  BPM  e480
Cle   22.1   .288   5.01   1.48      .33   .19   .18   .39
Bos   16.4   .181   2.99   1.35      .50   .29   .40   .59
Ind   16.8   .140   1.88   1.21      .18   .33   .32   .62
NYK   14.6   .112   1.42   1.04      .72   .69   .87   .78

Det   13.8   .099   1.10    .96      .25   .11   .31   .50
Mil   14.3   .058  -0.14    .79      .82   .80   .80   .69
Orl   12.1   .023  -0.32    .65      .63   .22   .68   .74
Mia   11.8  -.083  -2.62    .52      .31   .10   .05   .34

avg   15.2   .102   1.17   1.00      .47   .34   .45   .58

[Crow]

Average of 5 per team over +0.03 in DET-NYK series. Only 2 others over+0.01. 6 that help a little or more.

[Crow]

Same story in east. 4 players over 0.03 per game was not enough for 3 teams. 5 was still not enough for one.

Celtics not as impactfully deep by this standard as Cavs and Thunder. Holiday is notably short. But other measures better at capturing defense might say different.