2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

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Mike G
Posts: 6154
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Mike G »

Warriors 3 - 1 Rockets
avg score 100.5 - 98.3
Pyth wins 2.30 - 1.70 , eWins 2.15 - 1.85

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.71   Stephen Curry   GS   39  .662   30.2   5.0   5.3    .9   4.2   .7   2.16
.61  Alperen Şengün  Hou   37  .486   20.8  11.9   3.8   1.8   2.4   .0   1.98
.48   Jimmy Butler    GS   23  .640   28.2   6.0   4.7   2.0    .5   .4   2.57
.28  Br. Podziemski   GS   31  .505   15.2   5.3   3.4   1.5   1.0   .3   1.10
.27   Jalen Green    Hou   33  .484   16.2   6.2   3.6   1.2   2.8   .0    .98

.25   Amen Thompson  Hou   31  .456   12.7   8.1   4.0    .9   2.3   .6    .95
.20   Dillon Brooks  Hou   31  .607   16.2   5.7   1.1    .9   1.7   .6    .77
.19   Fred VanVleet  Hou   41  .513   12.6   3.0   3.6   1.1   1.7   .2    .56
.16   Buddy Hield     GS   23  .542   14.4   4.2   2.1   2.2    .8   .0    .83
.13   Steven Adams   Hou   20  .625    8.2  11.5   1.1    .8   1.7  2.0    .80

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.13   Quinten Post    GS   21  .422    9.1   7.9   3.4    .8    .4   .4    .76
.12   Gary Payton     GS   17  .595   13.6   5.0   3.2   1.9   1.1   .0    .87
.12   Jabari Smith   Hou   24  .739   13.5   6.2    .9    .3   2.5  1.6    .58
.10   Tari Eason     Hou   20  .484   10.8   7.4    .7   1.6   2.1  1.6    .60
.08   Moses Moody     GS   22  .518   11.6   3.3   1.9    .8    .5   .4    .44

.05  Draymond Green   GS   33  .397    5.7   7.8   2.6   2.2   4.1  1.4    .19
.04 Jonathan Kuminga  GS   11  .429   13.2   3.4   3.1    .0   1.8   .8    .44
.02   Kevon Looney    GS   10  .438    4.5   8.8   2.2    .8    .0   .0    .22
.00   Gui Santos      GS    5  .667   16.6   3.4   1.6    .0   5.6   .0   -.11
shooting : GS .548 - .512 Hou
rebounds: Hou 47.8 - 37.0 GS
turnovers: GS 12.3 - 14.5 Hou

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... otals.html
Mike G
Posts: 6154
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Mike G »

Nuggets 3 - 2 Clippers
avg score : LAC 109.2 - 105.8 Den
Pyth wins 3.02 - 1.98 , eWins 2.76 - 2.24

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e490
1.10  Nikola Jokić   Den   41  .591   22.5  12.1   7.9   1.7   2.8   .7   2.62
.83   Kawhi Leonard  LAC   38  .633   25.8   7.6   4.2   1.6   2.6   .6   2.11
.68   Ivica Zubac    LAC   38  .654   21.0  10.3   2.2    .6   1.4   .8   1.75
.60   James Harden   LAC   39  .558   18.4   5.4   6.8   1.0   2.9   .9   1.50
.59   Jamal Murray   Den   42  .600   21.0   4.5   4.4   1.3   2.5   .3   1.39

.32   Aaron Gordon   Den   39  .595   16.4   6.2   1.4    .5   1.6   .2    .81
.27   Norman Powell  LAC   33  .568   16.9   2.8   2.6   1.4   1.8   .2    .78
.20   Kris Dunn      LAC   25  .542    9.2   7.1   1.5   1.9    .0  1.2    .75
.15  Christian Braun Den   39  .469    7.5   6.7   1.8   1.2    .8   .6    .39
.10   Nicolas Batum  LAC   22  .600    7.7   6.2   1.5    .9    .9  2.1    .47

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e490
.10   Ru. Westbrook  Den   18  .510   15.5   5.2   1.7   1.0   2.9   .0    .55
.09  Michael Porter  Den   35  .577    9.9   7.0    .9    .2   1.8   .4    .25
.03   Bogdanović     LAC   16  .435    8.6   5.9   4.7    .4   3.3   .0    .18
.02   Derrick Jones  LAC   19  .484    8.7   3.2    .3    .7    .7  1.4    .12
.00   Peyton Watson  Den   13  .441    5.5   6.2    .8   1.8   1.5   .5    .03

-.00  Ben Simmons    LAC    8  .333    1.8   5.7   2.6    .8   1.6  3.1   -.03
-.02  DeAndre Jordan Den    5  .333    1.5   5.7   2.2    .0   1.4  1.3   -.34
-.07  Jalen Pickett  Den    6  .333    2.8   2.2   1.7    .0   4.3   .0  -1.08
shooting : LAC .576 - .555 Den
rebounds: Den 43.6 - 41.0 LAC
turnovers: LAC 12.4 - 14.2 Den
Mike G
Posts: 6154
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Mike G »

Warriors 3 - 2 Rockets
avg score : Hou 104.8 - 103.6 GS
Pyth wins 2.69 - 2.31 , eWins 2.60 - 2.40

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.79  Alperen Şengün  Hou   36  .507   20.4  11.7   4.8   1.9   2.2   .4   2.13
.69   Stephen Curry   GS   36  .636   26.2   5.0   5.5    .8   4.2   .6   1.82
.47   Amen Thompson  Hou   32  .529   16.7   7.7   3.8   1.9   2.5  1.2   1.42
.47   Jimmy Butler    GS   23  .568   21.2   6.3   4.0   2.2    .4   .3   1.94
.34   Fred VanVleet  Hou   39  .578   16.2   2.7   3.3   1.0   1.6   .4    .82

.33   Jalen Green    Hou   31  .490   15.6   7.1   3.4   1.0   2.3   .0   1.02
.32   Dillon Brooks  Hou   30  .636   19.8   4.8   1.3    .8   1.6   .5   1.00
.27  Br. Podziemski   GS   29  .513   13.9   5.1   3.6   1.3   1.4   .3    .91
.25   Moses Moody     GS   23  .563   15.7   5.3   1.9   1.2    .3   .6   1.06
.15   Buddy Hield     GS   22  .512   11.9   4.3   2.0   2.2    .7   .3    .67

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.14   Gary Payton     GS   15  .611   14.2   4.7   3.3   1.6    .9   .0    .90
.13   Pat Spencer     GS    5  .759   33.2   6.3   3.2   1.2   2.7   .0   2.38
.12   Steven Adams   Hou   20  .556    5.8  11.4   1.2    .7   1.4  1.6    .57
.11   Tari Eason     Hou   20  .541   11.7   7.6    .9   1.3   2.8  1.3    .54
.11   Jabari Smith   Hou   22  .683   12.8   5.9    .8    .3   2.5  1.4    .45

.10   Quinten Post    GS   20  .444    8.3   7.3   2.7    .7   1.5  1.0    .48
.08   Kevin Knox      GS    4  .457   19.7   7.4   3.8    .0    .0  1.4   1.84
.06  Draymond Green   GS   30  .451    6.4   7.1   2.4   2.4   4.0  1.2    .18
.03 Jonathan Kuminga  GS    9  .429   12.0   3.4   2.9    .0   1.8   .8    .32
.02   Gui Santos      GS    7  .682   14.5   3.5   2.2    .0   2.8   .0    .22

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.01  Trayce J-Davis   GS    4  .500    7.4   9.3    .0   1.5    .0   .0    .32
.01   Kevon Looney    GS   10  .409    3.9   8.8   1.6    .6    .0   .0    .07
.01   Aaron Holiday  Hou    4  .450   11.3   1.5   3.9    .0   1.6   .0    .16
shooting : Hou .545 - .539 GS
rebounds: Hou 46.0 - 39.4 GS
turnovers: GS 12.6 - 14.2 Hou


T'Wolves 4 - 1 Lakers
avg score 107.4 - 100.4
Pyth wins 3.53 - 1.47 , eWins 3.02 - 1.98

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.04 Anthony Edwards Min   41  .525   22.9   8.2   4.9   1.0   1.2   .4   2.43
1.02  LeBron James   LAL   41  .588   22.4   8.1   4.4   2.0   2.6  1.6   2.40
.88   Luka Dončić    LAL   42  .594   26.1   6.2   4.4   1.0   3.8   .5   2.04
.62   Julius Randle  Min   38  .598   22.6   5.5   3.8    .7   2.9   .2   1.58
.48  Jaden McDaniels Min   33  .644   18.7   7.8   1.4   1.0   1.0   .2   1.40

.30   Rudy Gobert    Min   29  .554    8.6  13.8    .5   1.2   1.2  1.0   1.00
.26   Naz Reid       Min   24  .667   15.8   6.0   1.8    .8   1.6  1.4   1.03
.16 Donte DiVincenzo Min   26  .381    8.4   5.5   4.0   2.4   2.1   .8    .57
.15   Austin Reaves   AL   39  .529   12.7   5.1   2.9    .2   2.9   .6    .38
.15   Rui Hachimura  LAL   36  .632   12.7   4.7    .9    .7   1.5   .6    .39

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.13   Mike Conley    Min   24  .475    7.8   5.7   3.6   1.1   1.0   .3    .53
.03  Ja. Vanderbilt  LAL   12  .438    2.8  11.0   2.5   1.9   1.9   .6    .27
-.01  Jaxson Hayes   LAL    6  .389    5.6   9.7   1.0    .0   1.3  1.2   -.08
-.01  Nickeil A-W    Min   20  .395    8.8   3.0   3.4    .6   2.7   .3   -.06
-.03  Jordan Goodwin LAL    6  .250    1.9   5.6   1.9   1.2   1.2  1.1   -.49

-.11  Dorian F-Smith LAL   34  .534    4.9   4.4   2.3    .2   1.1   .4   -.31
-.12  Gabe Vincent   LAL   20  .500    3.6   1.8   1.5    .4    .4   .7   -.60
shooting : LA .562 - .541 Min
rebounds: Min 43.8 - 39.0 LA
turnovers: Min 11.2 - 14.6 LA

Code: Select all

. LAL     min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Min    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Dončić    208   21.3   .136    5.3   2.04      Edwards  205   22.6   .213    7.9   2.43
LeBron    204   25.2   .198    9.5   2.40      Randle   189   18.6   .171    4.5   1.58
Reaves    196    9.3  -.011   -3.7    .38     McDaniels 166   19.6   .215    3.6   1.40
Hachimura 182   12.1   .060    0.4    .39      Gobert   143   15.7   .160    0.2   1.00
F-Smith   170    6.9   .034   -2.3   -.31    DiVincenzo 132    9.0   .024   -1.8    .57

Vincent    99    4.2   .008   -3.4   -.60      Conley   120   10.6   .097   -0.4    .53
Vanderbilt 60    8.9   .069   -0.7    .27      Reid     120   17.8   .185    5.6   1.03
Goodwin    31    2.0  -.049   -8.8   -.49      A-Walker 100    3.9  -.051   -5.8   -.06
Hayes      31    6.3   .002  -10.7   -.08      Shannon   13    8.6   .077   -3.6    .74
Kleber      5   -4.2  -.233  -18.6  -1.42      Clark      3   41.6   .757   24.3   2.20

. LAL     min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Min    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Bronny      4  -19.7  -.586  -32.5  -1.32      Garza      3   39.7   .392   12.7   2.35
Knecht      4   44.9   .206   18.2   4.56      Minott     3   13.1  -.325  -24.7   1.32
Len         4   23.1   .167   -8.5   2.21      Miller     2    6.8   .108   -2.3    .61
Milton      4  -13.7  -.301  -26.1  -1.73                     

totals    1200  13.4   .070   0.60    .79      totals   1200  15.8   .142   2.41   1.21
min correl 1-9   .69    .51    .64    .63    min. correl 1-9   .77    .62    .72    .85
Mike G
Posts: 6154
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Mike G »

Clippers 3 - 3 Nuggets
avg score 109.5 - 105.7
Pyth wins 3.70 - 2.30 , eWins 3.35 - 2.65

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
1.23  Nikola Jokić   Den   41  .582   21.8  11.3   7.3   1.8   3.0   .7   2.43
.99   Kawhi Leonard  LAC   39  .619   25.3   8.2   4.1   1.3   2.3   .5   2.09
.76   James Harden   LAC   40  .571   19.3   5.4   6.5   1.1   3.0   .9   1.54
.74   Ivica Zubac    LAC   37  .667   19.5  10.0   1.9    .7   1.3  1.1   1.62
.70   Jamal Murray   Den   42  .590   19.8   5.0   4.5   1.1   2.6   .7   1.36

.38   Norman Powell  LAC   34  .595   18.3   2.9   2.2   1.5   1.7   .2    .91
.37   Aaron Gordon   Den   39  .595   16.1   6.1   1.2    .6   1.6   .3    .77
.19   Kris Dunn      LAC   23  .513    8.6   6.7   1.8   1.7    .0  1.1    .68
.17   Ru. Westbrook  Den   21  .528   14.6   6.7   2.4    .7   2.7   .0    .67
.17  Christian Braun Den   40  .519    8.3   6.2   1.6   1.0    .7   .5    .36

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
.16   Nicolas Batum  LAC   24  .600    6.9   6.0   2.2   1.2    .7  2.2    .55
.10  Michael Porter  Den   33  .565    9.2   6.9    .7    .5   1.6   .6    .25
.06   Derrick Jones  LAC   19  .488    9.0   3.4    .5    .9    .6  1.7    .24
.04   Peyton Watson  Den   13  .500    7.4   6.3    .7   1.6   1.3   .8    .22
.03   Bogdanović     LAC   17  .434    8.2   5.9   3.7    .7   2.7   .0    .15

-.00   Ben Simmons   LAC    7  .333    1.8   5.7   2.5    .8   1.6  3.1   -.02
-.03  DeAndre Jordan Den    5  .333    1.3   6.5   1.9    .0   2.5  1.2   -.51
-.07  Jalen Pickett  Den    5  .333    2.8   2.3   1.6    .0   4.4   .0  -1.09
shooting : LAC .579 - .561 Den
rebounds: Den 42.8 - 40.0 LAC
turnovers: LAC 11.5 - 14.2 Den
Crow
Posts: 10565
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Crow »

LAC with 5 over .03 per game, DEN 3, average of 4. 3 more for each over +0.01.

LAL almost no help after first 4. GSW and HOU had 2nd tier help.
Mike G
Posts: 6154
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Mike G »

Rockets 3 - 3 Warriors
avg score 106.5 - 104.2
Pyth wins 3.44 - 2.56 , eWins 3.22 - 2.78

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.94  Alperen Şengün  Hou   36  .496   19.8  12.0   5.0   2.1   2.3   .3   2.10
.75   Stephen Curry   GS   37  .619   25.1   5.3   4.7   1.0   4.3   .7   1.62
.63   Jimmy Butler    GS   26  .566   21.1   6.7   4.5   1.6    .5   .5   1.91
.56   Fred VanVleet  Hou   39  .626   19.0   3.5   4.0    .8   1.7   .3   1.13
.52   Amen Thompson  Hou   32  .512   15.7   7.6   3.5   2.1   2.5  1.0   1.28

.37   Jalen Green    Hou   32  .480   14.9   6.8   3.4    .8   2.2   .2    .94
.30  Br. Podziemski   GS   29  .519   13.1   5.7   3.5   1.3   1.6   .2    .83
.29   Dillon Brooks  Hou   28  .600   17.4   4.5   1.6    .9   1.7   .4    .81
.27   Moses Moody     GS   23  .549   15.7   5.0   1.8   1.0    .5   .8    .96
.22   Steven Adams   Hou   22  .617    9.6   9.9    .9    .7   1.1  2.0    .83

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.19   Tari Eason     Hou   19  .585   12.9   7.1   1.0   2.2   2.4  1.4    .80
.17   Pat Spencer     GS    5  .800   39.1   7.0   4.0   1.1   2.5   .0   2.97
.15   Gary Payton     GS   16  .594   12.9   5.0   3.0   1.7   1.1   .0    .76
.12   Jabari Smith   Hou   22  .721   13.6   5.8    .9    .2   2.7  1.2    .46
.11   Buddy Hield     GS   21  .467    9.7   4.6   1.7   2.0    .9   .3    .42

.11   Quinten Post    GS   19  .440    8.1   6.5   2.7    .9   1.2   .9    .44
.10  Draymond Green   GS   31  .449    6.5   6.7   3.1   2.0   4.1  1.6    .25
.07   Kevin Knox      GS    4  .457   18.0   6.8   3.5    .0   1.4  1.3   1.36
.03   Gui Santos      GS    7  .708   15.7   3.4   2.8    .0   2.7   .0    .43
.03  Trayce J-Davis   GS    4  .571    9.6  10.9    .0   1.3    .0   .0    .70

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03 Jonathan Kuminga  GS    7  .429   11.9   3.4   2.8    .0   1.8   .8    .33
.02   Kevon Looney    GS    9  .409    3.9   9.7   1.5    .6    .0   .0    .19
.02   Aaron Holiday  Hou    5  .500   13.1   2.4   3.2    .0   1.3   .0    .36
shooting : Hou .549 - .537 GS
rebounds: Hou 46.0 - 39.8 GS
turnovers: GS 13.3 - 14.0 Hou
Mike G
Posts: 6154
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Mike G »

Nuggets 4 - 3 Clippers
avg score : LAC 108.3 - 107.7 Den
Pyth wins 3.62 - 3.38 , eWins 3.56 - 3.44

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e487
1.41  Nikola Jokić   Den   40  .573   21.4  11.9   7.5   2.0   3.3   .8   2.46
1.06  Kawhi Leonard  LAC   38  .621   24.0   7.7   3.7   1.1   2.2   .7   1.94
.82   James Harden   LAC   39  .557   17.0   5.3   6.9   1.2   2.9   .9   1.45
.75   Ivica Zubac    LAC   37  .642   17.1  10.6   1.9    .7   1.6  1.0   1.44
.75   Jamal Murray   Den   42  .578   18.9   5.1   4.1   1.0   2.8   .7   1.24

.52   Aaron Gordon   Den   39  .597   16.9   6.0   1.6    .7   1.6   .4    .93
.33   Norman Powell  LAC   34  .571   16.2   2.7   2.1   1.3   1.9   .3    .68
.32  Christian Braun Den   39  .540   10.1   6.2   1.8   1.0    .6   .4    .57
.29   Ru. Westbrook  Den   22  .550   15.4   6.6   2.8   1.6   2.6   .0    .93
.18  Michael Porter  Den   33  .585   10.2   7.2    .6    .5   1.4   .5    .38

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e487
.17   Kris Dunn      LAC   22  .500    8.1   5.9   1.7   1.9    .2   .9    .54
.13   Nicolas Batum  LAC   25  .591    6.0   5.1   2.1   1.1    .6  2.2    .37
.11   Derrick Jones  LAC   18  .490   10.5   3.4    .4   1.0    .8  2.2    .40
.08   Peyton Watson  Den   14  .596    8.9   6.4    .5   1.6   1.0  1.0    .41
.05    Bogdanović    LAC   17  .474    9.8   5.5   3.2    .8   3.0   .0    .21

-.01  Ben Simmons    LAC    6  .333    1.9   5.2   2.3    .7   1.5  2.8   -.12
-.01  DeAndre Jordan Den    5  .500    2.7   8.9   1.4    .0   1.9   .9   -.16
shooting : LAC .574 - .566
rebounds: Den 43.3 - 39.4 LAC
turnovers: LAC 12.0 - 13.9 Den

Code: Select all

. LAC    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e487      . Den   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e487
Harden   276   18.3   .122    4.1   1.45      Murray  295   16.9   .094    2.4   1.24
Leonard  265   24.0   .184    7.0   1.94      Jokić   280   25.9   .207   12.4   2.46
Zubac    256   20.7   .169    2.1   1.44      Braun   276   12.4   .094   -0.1    .57
Powell   238   12.8   .048   -1.0    .68      Gordon  272   16.8   .132    0.8    .93
Batum    172   12.8   .111    4.9    .37      Porter  229   10.4   .054   -1.5    .38

Dunn     153   12.2   .096    1.1    .54    Westbrook 154   17.0   .090    1.6    .93
Jones    129   12.6   .017   -0.1    .40      Watson   95   14.1   .105    1.4    .41
Bogd'vić 117    6.7  -.037   -7.9    .21      Pickett  35   -5.5  -.224  -15.3   -.97
Simmons   42    5.6   .018   -2.9   -.12      Jordan   33    3.5  -.023   -6.0   -.16
Brown     15   49.2   .553   29.4   3.00     Strawther 16    1.6  -.005   -8.3   -.50

. LAC    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e487      . Den   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e487
Christie  13   14.7   .065    2.9    .28      Nnaji     9   11.0  -.048   -6.6    .31
Eubanks   13    2.8  -.017  -12.3   -.29      Tyson     9   -1.5  -.227  -16.2   -.83
Miller    13   31.8   .247   14.6   2.13      Čančar    4  -13.2  -.384  -18.1  -1.98
Mills      4    4.5  -.227   -7.5   -.26                     

totals   1705  16.3   .106   2.18   1.02      totals  1705  15.6   .100   1.91    .98
min corr 1-9    .83    .73    .57    .88   min correl 1-10   .62    .61    .59    .69
Crow
Posts: 10565
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Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Crow »

Only having 4 players over +0.03 didn't work in west for 3 teams. Griz barely had 5 but Thunder had 7.

Rockets with 7, Warriors 4 (and some fairly close).
Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Mike G »

Jokic last 3 games' BPM all would rank among the bottom 11 (of 70) in the regular season.

Code: Select all

G    BPM   rk
1   14.6   32
2   11.1   48
3   24.1    7
4   20.4   10
5    4.8   65
6    5.9   60
7    4.0   66
During the RS he never had 3 consecutive games <10.0 BPM

He has 2 of his 8 best career playoff BPM-games and 3 of his worst 23. (87 postseason games.)
Mike G
Posts: 6154
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Mike G »

Warriors 4 - 3 Rockets
avg score 104-104, Pyth wins and eWins 3.5-3.5

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.04  Alperen Şengün Hou   37  .483   19.0  12.1   4.8   1.8   2.3   .4   1.95
.96   Stephen Curry   GS   38  .622   24.9   5.7   4.8   1.1   3.8   .8   1.71
.78   Jimmy Butler    GS   29  .579   21.1   6.7   4.7   1.5    .6   .4   1.85
.68   Amen Thompson  Hou   33  .534   17.2   7.8   3.3   1.9   2.1  1.0   1.40
.61   Fred VanVleet  Hou   40  .624   18.4   3.9   3.7    .9   1.9   .3   1.05

.38   Jalen Green    Hou   31  .474   13.9   6.5   3.1    .7   1.8   .3    .83
.37   Buddy Hield     GS   23  .623   17.4   4.2   1.9   1.8    .7   .7   1.09
.28  Br. Podziemski   GS   30  .497   12.1   5.1   3.2   1.0   1.7   .3    .64
.25   Moses Moody     GS   21  .508   14.4   5.2   1.6    .9    .5   .7    .83
.25   Dillon Brooks  Hou   29  .573   15.6   4.0   1.5    .9   1.8   .4    .58

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.21   Tari Eason     Hou   19  .552   12.4   7.4   1.1   1.9   2.6  1.7    .76
.20  Draymond Green   GS   32  .471    8.0   6.5   3.3   1.8   3.5  1.6    .43
.20   Steven Adams   Hou   22  .571    8.3   9.7    .7    .6   1.1  1.7    .61
.18   Pat Spencer     GS    4  .800   41.3   7.0   4.0   1.2   2.5   .0   3.10
.16   Gary Payton     GS   14  .594   13.6   5.0   3.1   1.8   1.1   .0    .82

.13   Jabari Smith   Hou   20  .667   12.8   6.1    .8    .2   2.4  1.1    .43
.11   Quinten Post    GS   17  .440    8.4   6.2   2.7    .8   1.2   .8    .43
.04   Kevon Looney    GS    9  .429    4.7  10.0   1.3    .5    .0   .5    .31
.04   Gui Santos      GS    6  .708   16.5   3.3   2.9    .0   2.6   .0    .49
.02   Aaron Holiday  Hou    4  .500   13.1   2.4   3.2    .0   1.3   .0    .36
.01 Jonathan Kuminga  GS    7  .360    9.1   3.5   2.4    .7   2.2   .7    .09
shooting : GS .545 - .538 Hou
rebounds: Hou 46.9 - 39.6 GS
turnovers: GS 12.4 - 13.6 Hou

Code: Select all

. GSW   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Hou    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Curry   268   19.4   .127    6.0   1.71      VanVleet 280   15.7   .158    3.2   1.05
Green   227    7.9  -.007   -2.2    .43      Şengün   256   20.5   .138    4.7   1.95
Pod'ski 212   10.8   .045   -0.5    .64      Thompson 231   19.0   .148    3.7   1.40
Butler  202   22.7   .247    7.0   1.85      Ja Green 219   11.3   .046   -1.5    .83
Hield   162   17.0   .150    5.6   1.09      Brooks   206   11.6   .100   -1.7    .58

Moody   146   13.9   .085    0.8    .83      Adams    155   16.1   .147    0.8    .61
Post    119    8.4   .033   -2.8    .43      Smith    143   12.4   .086    1.0    .43
Payton   96   14.7   .133    2.8    .82      Eason    132   14.5   .079    2.3    .76
Looney   65    8.4   .114   -6.1    .31      Holiday   27   10.2   .059   -6.2    .36
Kuminga  50    3.6  -.134   -9.2    .09      Sheppard  10    4.3  -.114    1.3    .22

. GSW   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Hou    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Santos   39   11.0   .099   -1.4    .49      Je Green   5   17.6   .117   -0.7    .89
Spencer  28   38.3   .314   14.0   3.10      Landale    5    8.1   .007   -9.5   -.09
J-Davis  24   13.9   .142   -5.4    .74      Whitmore   5  -13.0  -.355  -21.2   -.53
Knox     24   18.4   .032    0.7   1.39      Williams   5  -21.3  -.491  -29.9  -1.99
Key      18   -1.9  -.317  -13.5    .29                     

totals  1680  14.3   .094   1.49   1.00      totals   1680  15.1   .111   1.42   1.00
min. correl.   .38    .10    .44    .53     min. correl.     .50    .51    .55    .70
Teams scored equal points in the series, yet 3 of 4 stats have unequal totals. Win Shares are especially disparate.
Mike G
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Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Mike G »

Code: Select all

West 1st round summary stats    correlations w player min.
tm     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      PER  WS/48  BPM  e480
OKC   17.5   .206   4.70   1.41      .27   .10   .01   .47
Min   15.8   .142   2.41   1.21      .77   .62   .72   .85
LAC   16.3   .106   2.18   1.02      .83   .73   .57   .88
GSW   14.3   .094   1.49   1.00      .38   .10   .44   .53

Hou   15.1   .111   1.42   1.00      .50   .51   .55   .70
Den   15.6   .100   1.91    .98      .62   .61   .59   .69
LAL   13.4   .070   0.60    .79      .69   .51   .64   .63
Mem   11.2  -.010   0.25    .59     -.42  -.50  -.76  -.16

avg   14.9   .102   1.87   1.00      .46   .33   .35   .57
Why are GSW and Hou not equal in 3 of 4 summary stats?
They both averaged 104 pts in their series.
Crow
Posts: 10565
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Crow »

Thunder performance to minutes correlations last or tied for last, putting Griz aside.
Crow
Posts: 10565
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Crow »

Poor shooting for J Green but not so bad elsewhere in boxscore or raw +/-.
Mike G
Posts: 6154
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2025 Playoffs: West Conf. Rd 1

Post by Mike G »

Crow wrote: Mon May 05, 2025 10:44 pm Thunder performance to minutes correlations last or tied for last, putting Griz aside.
Some stats thought Caruso (#6 in min.) the team's best player, and #8 Joe > #1 Shai.
eWins has the highest correlations in 7 of 8 West series; 6 of 8 in the East.
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