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Re: 2025 Finals : Ind Pacers - OKC Thunder
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2025 3:28 pm
by Crow
Cason Wallace estimated as worst performing player in series by EWin and by far the biggest minutes of negative rated there. Other metrics and e480 have others estimated lower.
No Thunder bench player, other than Caruso, is positive on Dean Oliver old style net rating at BRef (ORtg - DRtg). Scales and formulas vary by metrics. But probably generally true that bench is underperforming regular season and prior playoffs?
JDub far off expected, needed. Same with Holmgren. (Same on average for Haliburton.) Thunder probably would be down bad without Caruso.
Re: 2025 Finals : Ind Pacers - OKC Thunder
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2025 1:26 pm
by Mike G
Wallace seems a bit lost on offense, esp as he is 0-8 from the arc.
He's one of 6 listed as SG for OKC, who were 1-2 with him starting.
Good time perhaps for a BPM-informed adjustment session. Based on regular-season player BPM in the series, this is not the most competitive series of the playoffs; the avg among all players for both teams (min.-weighted) is 2.16.
This suggests all PER are understated by 3.4, ws/48 by .049, eW/480 by .37
Code: Select all
Finals @ 4G unadjusted for total series BPM +3.4 +.049 +.37
. OKC min BPM PER WS/48 e480 PER WS/48 e480
Shai G-A 158 8.4 25.5 .195 2.41 28.9 .244 2.78
Jalen Williams 143 -0.2 16.7 .105 1.22 20.0 .154 1.60
Luguentz Dort 131 3.8 11.0 .155 .46 14.3 .204 .83
Chet Holmgren 123 -0.3 15.0 .115 1.26 18.3 .164 1.64
Alex Caruso 118 8.2 20.4 .238 1.52 23.7 .287 1.89
Cason Wallace 99 -3.7 5.7 .011 -.25 9.1 .060 .12
Is. Hartenstein 79 1.8 13.8 .137 .80 17.2 .186 1.17
Aaron Wiggins 48 0.7 11.8 .045 .42 15.1 .094 .79
Isaiah Joe 26 0.3 14.1 .135 .53 17.4 .184 .90
Kenrich Williams 21 -0.1 11.1 -.001 .40 14.5 .048 .77
Code: Select all
Finals @ 4G unadjusted for total series BPM +3.4 +.049 +.37
. Ind min BPM PER WS/48 e480 PER WS/48 e480
Tyr. Haliburton 146 3.6 16.4 .062 1.41 19.7 .111 1.79
Andrew Nembhard 134 -1.6 8.5 .022 .11 11.9 .071 .48
Pascal Siakam 131 7.1 21.8 .191 2.02 25.2 .240 2.40
Myles Turner 115 -3.2 9.8 -.026 .37 13.1 .023 .74
Aaron Nesmith 109 -2.5 7.5 .016 .37 10.9 .065 .74
Obi Toppin 101 2.2 13.4 .057 .90 16.7 .106 1.28
Be. Mathurin 74 4.3 21.7 .205 1.59 25.0 .254 1.97
T.J. McConnell 68 10.0 24.1 .197 1.74 27.4 .246 2.11
Ben Sheppard 52 -1.0 7.3 .052 -.30 10.6 .101 .07
Thomas Bryant 22 -4.4 5.0 .098 -.53 8.3 .147 -.16
Both Holmgren and JDub look greatly undervalued by BPM in the series. Yet they are above series avg in all other stats; and adjusted via total BPM, they are close to their season numbers (vs avg competition).
Of course, if any stat is giving too little credit to some players, it is also giving too much to others. I nominate McConnell and Mathurin; probably Caruso.
Re: 2025 Finals : Ind Pacers - OKC Thunder
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2025 6:47 pm
by Mike G
Thunder 3 - 2 Pacers
avg score 114.2 - 109.4
Pyth wins 3.20 - 1.80 , eWins 2.85 - 2.15
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.96 Shai G-A OKC 39 .574 29.0 4.5 4.2 2.3 3.1 1.7 2.35
.70 Pascal Siakam Ind 33 .582 21.1 8.5 3.9 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.03
.62 Jalen Williams OKC 36 .549 24.4 6.1 3.9 .8 2.5 .0 1.67
.36 Tyr. Haliburton Ind 36 .556 13.4 6.5 6.1 1.2 4.3 .8 .97
.33 T.J. McConnell Ind 18 .615 20.6 3.9 6.6 3.7 3.5 .0 1.75
.31 Chet Holmgren OKC 31 .467 11.7 11.8 .8 .7 2.1 1.4 .94
.30 Alex Caruso OKC 30 .610 14.6 4.7 1.9 3.4 1.8 .9 .98
.23 Be. Mathurin Ind 19 .581 19.9 7.0 1.5 .0 2.2 1.4 1.16
.22 Obi Toppin Ind 25 .559 14.1 7.8 1.6 .8 1.8 .8 .88
.20 Luguentz Dort OKC 33 .726 12.1 4.9 1.0 1.8 .5 .7 .59
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.19 Myles Turner Ind 28 .546 14.8 6.3 1.8 .5 3.3 2.1 .66
.19 Is. Hartenstein OKC 20 .564 7.4 12.7 3.5 1.4 2.0 .4 .90
.16 Aaron Nesmith Ind 27 .576 13.3 9.4 .7 .8 2.3 .6 .57
.12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 14 .563 16.2 5.5 1.7 1.5 2.7 .5 .79
.07 Cason Wallace OKC 23 .517 8.0 4.2 1.4 2.5 1.0 1.2 .29
.03 Isaiah Joe OKC 5 .722 19.6 2.6 .0 1.3 1.4 .0 .61
.00 Kenrich Williams OKC 6 .286 2.0 8.6 3.7 .0 2.1 1.0 .05
.00 Tony Bradley Ind 3 .667 10.8 10.6 .0 .0 2.7 .0 .07
-.01 Thomas Bryant Ind 5 .750 9.6 2.8 1.1 .0 .0 1.4 -.14
-.02 Andrew Nembhard Ind 34 .532 9.1 3.8 2.9 1.3 3.2 .2 -.05
-.03 Ben Sheppard Ind 12 .650 7.6 3.6 .5 1.7 1.8 .6 -.27
shooting : Ind .573 - .560 OKC
rebounds: OKC 42.4 - 42.0 Ind
turnovers:
OKC 13.4 - 18.6 Ind
Code: Select all
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Ind min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Shai 196 26.4 .211 8.9 2.35 Haliburton 180 13.5 .031 0.6 .97
JDub 178 20.4 .160 2.3 1.67 Nembhard 170 7.0 -.010 -3.1 -.05
Dort 164 12.2 .162 3.9 .59 Siakam 165 23.6 .197 9.0 2.03
Holmgren 157 12.7 .065 -3.5 .94 Turner 140 12.2 .028 -1.1 .66
Caruso 148 16.5 .174 5.1 .98 Nesmith 134 9.3 .037 -0.9 .57
Wallace 117 10.4 .084 0.7 .29 Toppin 123 13.7 .050 1.9 .88
Ha'stein 100 15.5 .156 2.0 .90 Mathurin 96 18.5 .134 1.7 1.16
Wiggins 70 13.6 .079 1.1 .79 McConnell 90 24.0 .171 9.3 1.75
KWill 32 7.3 -.004 -2.9 .05 Sheppard 58 6.3 .026 -1.1 -.27
Joe 26 14.1 .128 0.3 .61 Bryant 24 6.7 .098 -2.3 -.14
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Ind min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Mitchell 7 19.7 .209 -0.1 1.43 Bradley 13 8.6 .093 -3.9 .07
JWill 3 24.7 .058 15.4 5.54 Furphy 6 8.4 .107 -3.3 .12
Jones 2 2.0 .041 -5.4 -1.19 Johnson 3 14.0 .265 -2.6 2.07
Dieng 2 1.4 -.007 -6.0 -1.19
.totals 1200 16.5 .140 2.75 1.14 . totals 1200 14.0 .072 1.51 .86
Re: 2025 Finals : Ind Pacers - OKC Thunder
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2025 7:38 pm
by Crow
Thunder with the better performing top 2 and then pretty close after.
Re: 2025 Finals : Ind Pacers - OKC Thunder
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2025 1:42 am
by Mike G
Both teams are going 10 deep, at least semi-consistently.
After bumping up eWin rates to account for the competitive (tBPM) environment, we get player and team eWins for each game, that would have been compiled vs NBA-avg competition.
An avg player has to go 48 minutes to get .100 eWin.
Code: Select all
. OKC game: 1 2 3 4 5 tot.
Shai G-A .225 .311 .123 .252 .196 1.107
Jalen Williams .103 .099 .109 .161 .282 .754
Chet Holmgren .015 .077 .146 .178 .010 .426
Alex Caruso .089 .113 .073 .188 -.050 .412
Luguentz Dort .134 .004 .072 .012 .101 .324
Is. Hartenstein .092 .068 -.002 .032 .073 .263
Aaron Wiggins -.025 .143 -.030 -.010 .090 .168
Cason Wallace .006 .031 .020 -.034 .137 .159
Isaiah Joe .018 -.011 .053 -.013 .--- .048
Kenrich Williams .--- .023 .--- .010 -.006 .027
. Ind game: 1 2 3 4 5 tot.
Pascal Siakam .143 .079 .195 .233 .171 .822
Tyr. Haliburton .107 .092 .238 .103 -.041 .499
T.J. McConnell .070 .106 .090 .031 .098 .396
Obi Toppin .112 -.019 .035 .138 .051 .317
Be. Mathurin .025 .027 .214 .035 .002 .303
Myles Turner .077 .053 .025 .020 .122 .296
Aaron Nesmith .045 .050 .032 .038 .094 .260
Andrew Nembhard .077 .072 -.020 .001 -.020 .110
Thomas Bryant .028 -.017 -.014 .--- .019 .016
Ben Sheppard .012 .007 .005 -.018 .005 .011
Code: Select all
tm 1 2 3 4 5 tot
OKC .66 .86 .56 .77 .83 3.69
Ind .70 .45 .80 .58 .50 3.03
tot. 1.35 1.31 1.36 1.36 1.34 6.72
Just once has a team played badly enough to lose to an avg NBA team: Pacers in G2.
That is also the game in which 3rd-string players got some playing time, resulting in lower total e+wins.
Re: 2025 Finals : Ind Pacers - OKC Thunder
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2025 2:36 am
by Crow
SGA and JDub with major contributions in all 5 games by this measure. Holmgren 2-3. Caruso 3-4. Dort 1-2. Hartenstein 2-3. Wiggins 2. Wallace 1 and Joe none. Average a bit less than 5 per game. 9 guys to get 5 major performances.
Re: 2025 Finals : Ind Pacers - OKC Thunder
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2025 11:14 am
by Mike G
Thunder
3 - 3 Pacers
avg score 110.3 - 109.2
Pyth wins 3.21 - 2.79 , eWins 3.11 - 2.89
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.04 Shai G-A OKC 38 .572 28.5 4.5 4.0 2.1 4.0 1.5 2.19
.89 Pascal Siakam Ind 33 .572 21.0 9.7 3.9 1.7 2.2 1.5 2.17
.68 Jalen Williams OKC 34 .545 23.9 5.8 3.6 .8 2.7 .0 1.59
.50 Tyr. Haliburton Ind 34 .556 14.8 6.0 6.4 1.3 4.0 .7 1.17
.45 T.J. McConnell Ind 19 .581 19.0 5.7 6.8 3.8 3.7 .0 1.90
.37 Obi Toppin Ind 24 .583 17.2 7.9 1.4 1.1 1.7 .7 1.21
.29 Is. Hartenstein OKC 19 .627 10.3 12.0 3.3 1.6 1.7 .6 1.21
.27 Alex Caruso OKC 28 .587 12.2 4.6 2.0 3.0 1.8 1.0 .77
.27 Chet Holmgren OKC 30 .439 10.2 11.4 .7 .7 2.2 1.2 .71
.25 Be. Mathurin Ind 18 .538 16.9 7.2 1.6 .6 1.9 1.5 1.09
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.20 Aaron Nesmith Ind 27 .568 13.7 8.4 1.2 .9 2.2 .7 .61
.17 Luguentz Dort OKC 31 .667 10.7 5.2 .9 1.7 .4 .6 .44
.15 Myles Turner Ind 28 .489 12.2 6.2 1.7 .4 3.0 2.2 .43
.12 Andrew Nembhard Ind 34 .598 12.1 3.2 3.1 1.5 2.9 .2 .28
.10 Isaiah Joe OKC 7 .828 25.6 2.4 .7 .8 1.7 .0 1.22
.10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 15 .554 14.1 5.0 1.7 1.6 3.2 .7 .52
.06 Cason Wallace OKC 22 .485 7.1 4.5 1.2 2.6 .9 1.1 .22
.01 Tony Bradley Ind 3 .583 11.2 10.4 .0 .0 1.8 .0 .30
-.00 Thomas Bryant Ind 5 .714 11.8 2.1 .9 .0 .0 1.0 -.04
-.01 Ben Sheppard Ind 13 .588 7.9 4.7 .4 1.9 1.3 .4 -.07
-.02 Ke. Williams OKC 8 .350 2.6 7.2 2.3 .0 1.3 .6 -.17
shooting : Ind .563 - .555 OKC
rebounds: Ind 42.7 - 42.2 OKC
turnovers: OKC 14.7 - 17.3 Ind
Code: Select all
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Ind min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Shai 227 23.9 .158 6.8 2.19 Haliburton 203 14.5 .064 1.7 1.17
JDub 205 18.9 .127 1.5 1.59 Nembhard 201 10.0 .057 -0.4 .28
Dort 185 10.8 .140 2.7 .44 Siakam 197 23.2 .210 8.2 2.17
Holmgren 181 10.5 .027 -4.5 .71 Turner 166 9.6 .009 -3.1 .43
Caruso 170 14.6 .147 3.9 .77 Nesmith 159 9.8 .062 -0.4 .61
Wallace 131 9.3 .068 0.4 .22 Toppin 146 15.6 .089 3.5 1.21
Ha'stein 116 17.9 .204 4.3 1.21 McConnell 114 23.7 .167 8.9 1.90
Wiggins 88 11.5 .044 0.4 .52 Mathurin 110 17.4 .125 1.5 1.09
KWill 50 6.5 .011 -1.9 -.17 Sheppard 79 8.1 .059 -0.4 -.07
Joe 41 18.1 .198 5.6 1.22 Bryant 31 8.6 .128 -0.7 -.04
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Ind min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Mitchell 19 7.2 -.035 -2.7 .20 Bradley 19 13.2 .135 -4.7 .30
JWill 15 28.2 .359 18.9 3.33 Furphy 11 .2 -.060 -8.5 -.98
Jones 9 19.5 .177 6.8 1.30 Johnson 5 1.1 -.019 -12.0 -.81
Dieng 5 17.8 .071 11.4 .94
.totals 1440 15.2 .118 2.27 1.04 . totals 1440 14.4 .093 1.87 .96
Re: 2025 Finals : Ind Pacers - OKC Thunder
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2025 12:09 pm
by Mike G
Thunder 4 - 3 Pacers
avg score 109.3 - 106.6
Pyth wins 4.08 - 2.92 , eWins 3.79 - 3.21
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.26 Shai G-A OKC 38 .549 28.0 4.6 5.0 1.9 3.6 1.5 2.26
.94 Pascal Siakam Ind 33 .560 20.0 8.8 3.6 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.93
.79 Jalen Williams OKC 35 .529 23.3 5.5 3.6 1.0 2.5 .0 1.57
.56 Tyr. Haliburton Ind 30 .576 16.7 5.8 6.3 1.3 4.1 .7 1.29
.50 T.J. McConnell Ind 20 .587 19.7 6.2 6.2 3.3 4.8 .2 1.69
.47 Chet Holmgren OKC 30 .480 12.8 11.1 .6 .7 1.9 1.9 1.06
.44 Be. Mathurin Ind 21 .561 19.3 8.8 1.8 .9 2.2 1.2 1.45
.40 Is. Hartenstein OKC 19 .629 11.1 13.1 4.0 1.7 2.0 .5 1.43
.31 Alex Caruso OKC 29 .573 11.9 4.4 1.7 3.1 1.5 1.0 .73
.28 Obi Toppin Ind 24 .550 14.5 7.4 1.4 .9 2.2 .6 .80
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.21 Aaron Nesmith Ind 27 .545 11.8 8.3 1.2 1.1 2.1 1.0 .53
.19 Andrew Nembhard Ind 34 .594 12.5 3.5 3.5 1.3 2.8 .2 .38
.18 Luguentz Dort OKC 31 .606 9.6 5.6 .8 2.0 .5 .5 .39
.17 Myles Turner Ind 27 .490 12.3 6.3 1.7 .4 2.9 1.9 .43
.11 Cason Wallace OKC 22 .538 8.8 4.2 1.0 2.9 1.0 .9 .34
.09 Isaiah Joe OKC 6 .828 24.3 2.4 .7 .8 1.7 .0 1.08
.07 Aaron Wiggins OKC 14 .539 12.7 4.8 1.5 1.4 2.9 .7 .35
.01 Tony Bradley Ind 3 .643 12.6 9.7 .0 .0 2.8 .0 .17
.00 Ajay Mitchell OKC 3 .250 3.4 8.2 7.3 .0 5.2 .0 .02
-.01 Thomas Bryant Ind 5 .625 9.9 2.1 .9 .0 .0 1.0 -.17
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
-.02 Ke. Williams OKC 8 .318 2.6 7.3 2.2 .0 1.2 .6 -.14
-.04 Ben Sheppard Ind 14 .556 6.4 5.4 .3 1.6 1.5 .3 -.20
shooting : Ind .560 - .547 OKC
rebounds: Ind 43.0 - 41.9 OKC
turnovers
: OKC 13.7 - 18.1 Ind
Code: Select all
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Ind min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Shai 267 23.8 .167 7.0 2.26 Nembhard 238 10.4 .069 0.1 .38
JDub 243 18.0 .119 1.0 1.57 Siakam 234 21.4 .186 7.3 1.93
Dort 220 10.3 .128 2.1 .39 Haliburton 210 15.5 .078 2.6 1.29
Holmgren 213 13.2 .081 -2.3 1.06 Turner 190 9.3 .010 -3.0 .43
Caruso 202 14.4 .148 3.6 .73 Nesmith 189 9.2 .059 -0.7 .53
Wallace 157 10.8 .097 1.3 .34 Toppin 167 12.2 .040 0.6 .80
Ha'stein 134 19.4 .210 4.9 1.43 Mathurin 144 20.3 .170 4.4 1.45
Wiggins 101 9.8 .039 -1.1 .35 McConnell 142 21.2 .107 6.6 1.69
KWill 55 5.9 .007 -2.8 -.14 Sheppard 95 6.6 .037 -1.7 -.20
Joe 41 18.6 .209 5.6 1.08 Bryant 32 7.6 .101 -2.3 -.17
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Ind min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Mitchell 20 4.5 -.096 -5.6 .02 Bradley 24 11.2 .116 -5.5 .17
JWill 15 28.2 .368 18.9 3.06 Furphy 12 .2 -.057 -8.5 -.97
Jones 9 18.0 .187 4.2 .99 Johnson 5 1.4 -.015 -12.0 -.66
Dieng 5 17.8 .078 10.1 1.03
.totals 1680 15.4 .125 2.33 1.08 . totals 1680 13.9 .086 1.61 .92
BPM-informed:
Code: Select all
. OKC BPM PER WS/48 e480 . Ind BPM PER WS/48 e480
Shai 7.0 26.9 .211 2.60 Nembhard 0.1 13.6 .113 .72
JDub 1.0 21.1 .163 1.90 Siakam 7.3 24.6 .230 2.27
Dort 2.1 13.5 .172 .72 Haliburton 2.6 18.6 .122 1.63
Holmgren -2.3 16.4 .125 1.39 Turner -3.0 12.5 .054 .76
Caruso 3.6 17.6 .192 1.07 Nesmith -0.7 12.3 .103 .86
Wallace 1.3 14.0 .141 .68 Toppin 0.6 15.3 .084 1.13
Ha'stein 4.9 22.6 .255 1.77 Mathurin 4.4 23.5 .215 1.79
Wiggins -1.1 13.0 .083 .69 McConnell 6.6 24.4 .151 2.02
KWill -2.8 9.0 .051 .19 Sheppard -1.7 9.8 .081 .14
Joe 5.6 21.8 .253 1.42 Bryant -2.3 10.7 .146 .17
. OKC BPM PER WS/48 e480 . Ind BPM PER WS/48 e480
Mitchell -5.6 7.7 -.052 .36 Bradley -5.5 14.4 .160 .51
JWill 18.9 31.3 .412 3.39 Furphy -8.5 3.3 -.013 -.63
Jones 4.2 21.1 .231 1.33 Johnson -12.0 4.6 .029 -.32
Dieng 10.1 21.0 .122 1.37
total 2.33 18.5 .169 1.42 total 1.61 17.1 .130 1.25
Re: 2025 Finals : Ind Pacers - OKC Thunder
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2025 7:49 pm
by DSMok1
Thank you for putting these together as always, Mike!