APBRmetrics

DQuinn1575 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 21, 2025 2:43 am
I followed my math, ...

It seems your wins total 1232, which is two too many.

Pelton is high by 7, EBET 1 short. Should we adjust them or let them stand?

I would side with offering / making no adjustments of entries.


Submittal by first tip-off is obviously preferred but requests for "it was hectic / tough for me" slightly late entry by 3pm Eastern Wednesday would not be rejected imo unless there is some major altering event today and advantage gained from it.

Confirmed published by today but late or way late in requesting entry probably slides with an interested request but repetitions of that could / should be avoided. If no request is made, tracking is discretionary and it is subjective whether to consider it "official".

Mike G's additional entry is ok to me, under the circumstances as an addition to straight metrics and because he had a reason and asked.

As to whether to add a different Vegas line beyond EBet, I lean no. One is suggestive / "enough" to me. Generally not looking to add other non entries but let tracker or trackers track as they will.

I am still cooking the DARKO win projections, but in the meantime, a friend is working on a new modeling system, and wishes to submit projections using it. I am submitting on their behalf. Call it the Walrus model for these purposes.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... id=0#gid=0

Unsolicited but easy to find and a 'regular', the ESPN Experts' averages, and Walrus: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/466 ... -odds-more

CraftedNBA (dtkavana) -

Team Wins
Atlanta 46
Boston 42
Brooklyn 25
Charlotte 30
Chicago 34
Cleveland 56
Dallas 42
Denver 48
Detroit 41
Golden State 50
Houston 49
Indiana 36
Clippers 53
Lakers 47
Memphis 43
Miami 36
Milwaukee 42
Minnesota 48
New Orleans 33
New York 49
Oklahoma City 61
Orlando 46
Philadelphia 37
Phoenix 36
Portland 36
Sacramento 37
San Antonio 40
Toronto 37
Utah 26
Washington 23

Mike G wrote: ↑Tue Oct 21, 2025 8:23 am

DQuinn1575 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 21, 2025 2:43 am
I followed my math, ...

It seems your wins total 1232, which is two too many.

Pelton is high by 7, EBET 1 short. Should we adjust them or let them stand?

Thanks for checking I copied over the numbers before my rounding

CORRECTED ENTRY


I'll resubmit,
OKC 69
HOU 58
CLE 55
DEN 52
GSW 51
BOS 50
LAC 50
DAL 50
MIN 48
MEM 48
IND 47
ATL 46
NYK 43
ORL 42
LAL 41
MIL 40
SAS 40
POR 39
PHO 39
MIA 36
CHI 35 Chicago
DET 35
SAC 35
PHI 33
NOP 33
TOR 28
BRK 26
CHO 23 Charlotte
UTA 21
WAS 17

DQ
Somehow I had you with 43 wins for NOP.
Now you are 10 short of 1230.

I just copied and pasted my numers to Excel and got 1,230, so I'm not sure why you have a different number

OKC 69
HOU 58
CLE 55
DEN 52
GSW 51
BOS 50
LAC 50
DAL 50
MIN 48
MEM 48
IND 47
ATL 46
NYK 43
ORL 42
LAL 41
MIL 40
SAS 40
POR 39
PHO 39
MIA 36
CHI 35 Chicago
DET 35
SAC 35
PHI 33
NOP 33
TOR 28
BRK 26
CHO 23 Charlotte
UTA 21
WAS 17

The DARKO entry has been added here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 2061110590

Atlanta Hawks 39
Boston Celtics 46
Brooklyn Nets 22
Charlotte Hornets 31
Chicago Bulls 41
Cleveland Cavaliers 52
Dallas Mavericks 46
Denver Nuggets 52
Detroit Pistons 46
Golden State Warriors 51
Houston Rockets 53
Indiana Pacers 41
Los Angeles Clippers 51
Los Angeles Lakers 42
Memphis Grizzlies 39
Miami Heat 29
Milwaukee Bucks 44
Minnesota Timberwolves 48
New Orleans Pelicans 34
New York Knicks 48
Oklahoma City Thunder 64
Orlando Magic 52
Philadelphia 76ers 38
Phoenix Suns 32
Portland Trail Blazers 36
Sacramento Kings 36
San Antonio Spurs 42
Toronto Raptors 35
Utah Jazz 19
Washington Wizards 21
1230

In my opinion, you shouldn't require forcing to 1230 - that is not guaranteed to improve your error (particularly if you have different variances on each). Also it's up for debate how you'd want to add or subtract the wins (eg multiplier / bias term, both).

Just my 2c - maybe 1230 is some rule I don't know about.

I do adjust to 1230, but I dont think we should adjust someone else's numbers - I had 1,232 in my numbers, and there is no way for anyone else to tell what 2 wins I wind up deducting to get to the magic number.