2011 Finals - Mia vs Dal

[Mike G]

Mavs 3 , Heat 2
avg score 92.6 - 91.8
pythagorean wins 2.64 - 2.36
eWins 2.57 - 2.43

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.13  Wade,Dwyane     Mia   38   .628   35.1   7.5   5.4   2.1   1.5   1.9  1.5   2.81
.86   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   41   .563   28.9   9.9   2.7   2.0    .4   2.7   .7   2.03
.58   James,Lebron    Mia   44   .518   15.3   7.3   7.3   2.9   1.5   2.9   .3   1.25
.39   Marion,Shawn    Dal   36   .526   16.5   7.3   3.9   2.1    .8   2.5   .8   1.05
.39   Terry,Jason     Dal   32   .555   20.3   2.3   5.0   1.9   1.3   1.1   .0   1.16

.34   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   39   .616   12.8  10.0    .8   3.6    .9    .4  1.3    .83
.33   Bosh,Chris      Mia   39   .451   16.9   7.8   1.5   2.6    .2   2.2   .6    .81
.27   Kidd,Jason      Dal   38   .544    8.4   5.3   8.3   1.0   1.4   3.7   .8    .69
.26   Chalmers,Mario  Mia   27   .631   17.4   3.8   4.4   2.8   1.5   1.8   .0    .92
.20  Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   18   .786   21.8   4.5   1.2   3.9   1.3    .4   .4   1.09

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.18   Barea,Jose      Dal   20   .409   13.1   4.4   7.7   2.6    .4   2.2   .0    .86
.06   Howard,Juwan    Mia    5   .750   20.0  10.5   1.9   7.5    .0    .0   .0   1.28
.06   Bibby,Mike      Mia   17   .475    9.4   3.9   3.1   4.3   3.4   1.4   .5    .33
.06   Miller,Mike     Mia   17   .477    8.6   7.4   2.6   6.0   2.0   1.6   .4    .32
.02   Haywood,Brendan Dal    5   .417    6.4  11.2    .0   8.2   1.4   1.4  4.1    .37

.00   Haslem,Udonis   Mia   28   .460    7.0   6.1   1.3   3.9    .7   1.2   .7   -.01
-.01  Mahinmi,Ian     Dal    3   .556   12.5   5.0    .0  17.1    .0    .0   .0   -.20
-.02  Cardinal,Brian  Dal    4   .667   10.0   2.2    .0  11.1   1.8   3.7   .0   -.61
-.04  Anthony,Joel    Mia   22   .333    2.2   7.4    .9   5.0    .4    .4  2.5   -.16
-.04  Stojakovic,Peja Dal    5   .200    1.3   4.5    .0   5.1   2.6   2.6   .0   -.78

Effective shooting% Dal .548 - .529 Mia
Reb/G Mia 38.4 - 37.2 Dal
TO Dal 13.0 - 12.2 Mia

[Mike G]

Game by game reconstruction of eWins distribution.
I didn't publish after game 1, so an average for games 1 and 2 is shown.

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eWins  eWins by game:     G1-2   G3    G4    G5
1.13  Wade,Dwyane      M  .27   .37   .19   .04
.86   Nowitzki,Dirk    D  .15   .35   .08   .14
.58   James,Lebron     M  .18   .17  -.02   .07
.39   Marion,Shawn     D  .14   .01   .11   .00
.39   Terry,Jason      D  .05   .08   .07   .15

.34   Chandler,Tyson   D  .05   .04   .15   .06
.33   Bosh,Chris       M  .07   .04   .07   .08
.27   Kidd,Jason       D  .02   .07   .03   .13
.26   Chalmers,Mario   M  .03   .05   .06   .10
.20  Stevenson,Deshawn D  .05   .00   .08   .03

.18   Barea,Jose_Juan  D  .01  -.06   .07   .15
.06   Bibby,Mike       M  .07  -.02  -.03  -.02
.06   Miller,Mike      M  .01  -.01   .02   .04
.02   Haywood,Brendan  D  .02  -.01   .00   .00
.00   Haslem,Udonis    M -.03  -.03   .03   .05
-.04  Anthony,Joel     M -.04   .00   .08  -.04

[Crow]

Dallas with 7 guys making a .1+ eWins contribution to date, Miami with 4. Depth has so far slightly overcome the advantage the Heat have on top 2 guys.

[Mike G]

From the 2nd post in this thread, expected eW per game, multiplied by 5 (games), subtracted from current eWins, to yield eWins beyond expectation.
Expected was based on previous playoff rounds.

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exp5   eWins    eW+   tm   player 
.78    1.13    .35   Mia  Wade,Dwyane
-.06    .20    .26   Dal  Stevenson,Deshawn
.06     .26    .20   Mia  Chalmers,Mario
.21     .34    .13   Dal  Chandler,Tyson
.29     .39    .10   Dal  Marion,Shawn
-.04    .06    .10   Mia  Bibby,Mike
.00     .06    .06   Mia  Howard,Juwan
.03     .06    .03   Mia  Miller,Mike
.38     .39    .01   Dal  Terry,Jason
.04     .02   -.02   Dal  Haywood,Brendan
.90     .86   -.04   Dal  Nowitzki,Dirk
.23     .18   -.05   Dal  Barea,Jose
.02    -.04   -.06   Mia  Anthony,Joel
.08     .00   -.08   Mia  Haslem,Udonis
.08    -.04   -.12   Dal  Stojakovic,Peja
.47     .27   -.19   Dal  Kidd,Jason
.55     .33   -.21   Mia  Bosh,Chris
.96     .58   -.38   Mia  James,Lebron

Mavs total +.08, Mia nets zero.
Better coaching, or just that 3 of 5 games have been in Dallas?

[Crow]

So both big 3s collectively have slightly underperformed their past playoff averages. Perhaps due to better opponent quality and maybe more and more effective opponent attention on them. That sounds more likely to be favorable in the end for Dallas given its depth advantage than if the opposite were true and the big 3s were maintaining their past performances or exceeding them.

[DavidPerez]

Go heat! ahaha I have been waiting for Game 7 coz Heat gonna play in their homecourt!

[Mike G]

...

[Mike G]

So both big 3s collectively have slightly underperformed their past playoff averages. Perhaps due to better opponent quality and maybe more and more effective opponent attention on them. That sounds more likely to be favorable in the end for Dallas given its depth advantage than if the opposite were true and the big 3s were maintaining their past performances or exceeding them.

Both the Mavs and the Heat averaged about .6 eWins per game coming in. So on average, a given player may expect to get just 83% of his previous rates, in the Finals.
Since I already accounted for that, it's no surprise (in this close series) that Miami is right at their projected level, while Dallas is slightly ahead -- presumably by manipulation of player minutes.

What 'big 3' is there, other than LeBron, Wade, and Bosh?

[Crow]

I probably should have said top 3 instead of big 3. Nobody that I've seen considers Dallas to have a "big 3", especially if you emphasize scoring for that; but to compare top overall performance with the Heat's top 3, you can look at Dirk, Terry and Kidd (or throw in Marion instead on one of the latter two).

The real big 3 in the series have been Wade, LeBron and Dirk. There is a large drop-off from there to lower level impact players.

[Crow]

As one headline put it, Big D > Big Three.

Tonight 4 players did a lot to help Dirk and Dirk picked it up and the rest did enough. They were the more experienced and effective team.



Do lineups matter much? In the playoffs the Mavs had the very best performing lineup over 50 minutes and 2 of the 4 best on both raw and Adjusted +/-. Not including tonight they got a 113 point edge from one lineup used under 8 minutes per game while their overall point differential up to tonight was 111.

The Heat had one of the 4 best bigger minute lineups in the playoffs. They used it about 5 minutes per game previously. They used it 10 minutes tonight, It was +2. They had another very strong performing lineup that they used just an average of 2 minutes per game. None tonight. Maybe, among other things, they should have tried the second one some or perhaps the first one even more.

[Mike G]

Mavs 4 , Heat 2
avg score 94.7 - 92.3
Pythagorean wins 3.49 - 2.51
eWins 3.25 - 2.75

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.33  Wade,Dwyane     Mia   39   .600   31.7   7.6   5.5   2.2   1.4   2.4  1.6   2.74
.95   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   40   .527   25.7  10.1   2.5   2.3    .6   2.6   .6   1.88
.62   James,Lebron    Mia   44   .535   16.0   6.8   6.9   2.7   1.4   3.3   .4   1.14
.61   Terry,Jason     Dal   33   .593   24.0   2.4   4.4   1.8   1.4   1.4   .0   1.51
.42   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   37   .604   12.4  10.2    .9   4.0   1.2    .5  1.2    .89

.40  Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   17   .808   29.1   3.9   1.0   3.4   1.5    .4   .4   1.87
.39   Chalmers,Mario  Mia   29   .607   18.4   3.7   5.0   2.6   1.8   2.0   .0   1.09
.39   Marion,Shawn    Dal   36   .516   15.2   7.7   3.4   2.3    .9   2.5   .7    .88
.37   Bosh,Chris      Mia   39   .485   16.7   7.9   1.2   2.3    .3   2.0   .5    .76
.29   Kidd,Jason      Dal   37   .575    9.3   5.2   8.5   1.0   1.2   3.5   .8    .62

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.24   Barea,Jose      Dal   22   .453   14.1   4.4   7.9   2.9    .9   2.6   .0    .90
.04   Bibby,Mike      Mia   14   .475    8.8   4.0   3.1   4.4   3.5   1.5   .5    .23
.03   House,Eddie     Mia    4   .500   13.0   6.6   1.8   5.8   2.9   1.4   .0    .57
.03   Howard,Juwan    Mia    5   .563   12.5   8.2   1.4   6.0    .0   1.2   .0    .40
.02   Mahinmi,Ian     Dal    5   .600   14.9   7.5    .0  16.8   1.3    .0   .0    .32

.01   Miller,Mike     Mia   16   .457    7.0   7.2   2.3   5.5   1.8   1.5   .4    .07
.01   Haywood,Brendan Dal    4   .417    5.7  11.4    .0   8.4   1.4   1.4  4.2    .24
-.01  Haslem,Udonis   Mia   29   .471    7.3   6.9   1.0   3.7    .6   1.0   .6   -.02
-.02  Cardinal,Brian  Dal    5   .875   16.4   1.3   1.5   9.2   1.2   3.5   .0   -.28
-.06  Stojakovic,Peja Dal    5   .200     .9   4.6    .0   5.3   2.6   2.6   .0  -1.15
-.07  Anthony,Joel    Mia   21   .286    1.4   8.1    .8   4.7    .3    .3  2.3   -.27

Team effective shooting% - Dal .553 - .531 Mia
Rebounds per game - Mia 38.5 - 37.7 Dal
player Turnovers per game - Dal 13.2 - 12.8 Mia

[huevonkiller]

As one headline put it, Big D > Big Three.

Tonight 4 players did a lot to help Dirk and Dirk picked it up and the rest did enough. They were the more experienced and effective team.



Do lineups matter much? In the playoffs the Mavs had the very best performing lineup over 50 minutes and 2 of the 4 best on both raw and Adjusted +/-. Not including tonight they got a 113 point edge from one lineup used under 8 minutes per game while their overall point differential up to tonight was 111.

The Heat had one of the 4 best bigger minute lineups in the playoffs. They used it about 5 minutes per game previously. They used it 10 minutes tonight, It was +2. They had another very strong performing lineup that they used just an average of 2 minutes per game. None tonight. Maybe, among other things, they should have tried the second one some or perhaps the first one even more.

Dude I'm sorry but all season your analysis has been off about the Heat. You kept dismissing them against the Celtics and Bulls, I don't think you understand why teams win and lose in the post-season.

Don't try to use the Dallas regular season boxscores either, LeBron was a terrible jumpshooter in November (but drew 13 FTs) and was 0-3 at the rim against Dallas in December and hit a lot of jumpers. LeBron had the best of both worlds coming into this series (he still looked exhausted in game five against Chicago) but Miami made the grave mistake of playing him more MPG that even Jordan, at 40 pounds lighter, couldn't handle.

The Heat lost because like Hollinger alluded to in his early playoff predictions, if they suffer some kind of injury to the Big 3 or whatever they are done. It is not normal or usually successful to play 44 MPG, Kobe has failed most of the times he's tried to do that, Jordan rarely tried to do that. There's a reason Wade's minutes are carefully protected, and Dirk's too.

[bbstats]

Must...resist....feeding...troll.

PERSONALLY,
I think that Dallas won four of six games because in four of six games Dallas' performance was greater than Miami's performance.

But seriously - to my own eyes, I just don't think that Spoelstra had a good answer for the Mav's defense.

[huevonkiller]

Must...resist....feeding...troll.

PERSONALLY,
I think that Dallas won four of six games because in four of six games Dallas' performance was greater than Miami's performance.

But seriously - to my own eyes, I just don't think that Spoelstra had a good answer for the Mav's defense.

I'm not your typical Miami fan trust me. I don't like the unnatural way Miami won in 2006, and then with everyone overlooking LeBron and Kobe's performances against Dallas that year. If I had it my way Dallas would have won in 2006 and Miami in 2011.

Spoelstra is an amateur coach, you never sacrifice the post-season for a #1/#2 seed. I wanted him to rest the Big 3 all season but he wore them out from January through April. And then some abnormal minute usage with LeBron playing every single position and defending every single position for more MPG than Jordan. He's definitely incompetent, he can't even bench Mike Bibby until the elimination game.

[Crow]

Sorry "Dude", your analysis of my analysis seems off in several ways to me. I predicted at least a bit less regular season wins for the Heat than Vegas and even fewer than the greatest enthusiasts and was more right than they were. I don't recall saying much about the Heat during the series against the Celtics and Bulls. If you think I said something terribly wrong then don't just make a sweeping unsupported charge, please find those statements and post them and show you analysis of the same topics at the time or in retrospect. I am still working on why teams win and lose in the post-season but I work at that and I think I have a decent perspective on what to consider and what to consider important.