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Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 5:13 pm
by Mike G
Categorical leaders, per 36 minutes and standardized. Minimum 180 minutes.
Code: Select all
Sco per36 rates tm Reb per36 rates tm Ast per36 rates tm
36.3 Bryant,Kobe LAL 16.2 Howard,Dwight Orl 12.0 Nash,Steve Phx
33.4 James,Lebron Mia 15.6 Bynum,Andrew LAL 10.8 Rubio,Ricky Min
30.5 Anthony,Carmelo NYK 14.5 Varejao,Anderson Cle 10.4 Rondo,Rajon Bos
28.9 Durant,Kevin Okl 14.2 Cousins,Demarcus Sac 9.3 Paul,Chris LAC
26.5 Rose,Derrick Chi 14.1 Camby,Marcus Por 9.0 Calderon,Jose Tor
26.3 Irving,Kyrie Cle 13.9 Love,Kevin Min 8.9 Rose,Derrick Chi
26.1 Bargnani,Andrea Tor 12.9 Hibbert,Roy Ind 8.8 Parker,Tony SAS
25.4 Williams,Lou Phi 12.9 Hill,Jordan Hou 8.6 Williams,Deron NJN
25.3 Love,Kevin Min 12.8 Humphries,Kris NJN 8.3 Felton,Raymond Por
24.8 Griffin,Blake LAC 12.6 Hawes,Spencer Phi 8.1 Miller,Andre Den
24.5 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 12.6 Haywood,Brendan Dal 8.0 Nelson,Jameer Orl
24.4 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 12.4 Haslem,Udonis Mia 7.7 Lawson,Ty Den
23.8 Allen,Ray Bos 12.3 Dalembert,Samuel Hou 7.7 James,Lebron Mia
23.1 Anderson,Ryan Orl 12.3 Monroe,Greg Det 7.6 Lowry,Kyle Hou
22.9 Ellis,Monta GSW 12.1 Kaman,Chris NOH 7.5 Irving,Kyrie Cle
22.3 Howard,Dwight Orl 12.0 Noah,Joakim Chi 7.3 Westbrook,Russel Okl
22.3 Westbrook,Russel Okl 12.0 Hilario,Nene Den 7.2 Collison,Darren Ind
22.0 Monroe,Greg Det 11.8 Mcgee,Javale Was 7.1 Fisher,Derek LAL
21.8 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 11.7 Asik,Omer Chi 7.0 Turkoglu,Hedo Orl
21.7 Harrington,Al Den 11.7 Griffin,Blake LAC 6.9 Sessions,Ramon Cle
Stl per36 rates tm Blk per36 rates tm TO per36 rates tm
3.3 Allen,Tony Mem 4.0 Jordan,Deandre LAC 4.6 Jackson,Stephen Mil
3.1 West,Delonte Dal 3.7 Mcgee,Javale Was 4.6 Irving,Kyrie Cle
2.8 Conley,Mike Mem 3.4 Ibaka,Serge Okl 4.5 Williams,Deron NJN
2.8 Shumpert,Iman NYK 2.9 Dalembert,Samuel Hou 4.3 Cousins,Demarcus Sac
2.7 Paul,Chris LAC 2.7 O'Neal,Jermaine Bos 4.2 Westbrook,Russel Okl
2.5 Kidd,Jason Dal 2.6 Cousins,Demarcus Sac 4.1 Rondo,Rajon Bos
2.4 Gaines,Sundiata NJN 2.5 Gasol,Marc Mem 4.0 Nash,Steve Phx
2.4 Chalmers,Mario Mia 2.4 Bynum,Andrew LAL 4.0 Bryant,Kobe LAL
2.2 Millsap,Paul Uta 2.3 Thompson,Tristan Cle 4.0 Gordon,Ben Det
2.2 Lowry,Kyle Hou 2.2 Gortat,Marcin Phx 3.9 James,Lebron Mia
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 8:09 pm
by Crow
Kobe's current usage rate of 40% is higher than any 20+ minute per game player has averaged for a season in the history of the league. Passing the 2005-6 version of himself... on a team which was a first round knockout. His TS% is just the tiniest bit above his career worst and probably only a modest amount above current league average.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:11 pm
by Mike G
Curious what anyone thinks of this. Some assists may be worth more than others. An assisted 3-pointer may be worth more than an assisted 2, for example.
Some teams regularly make more 3's, and some teams get more FT than others, relative to FG.
Only FG, however, are "assistable", and so assists as we count them aren't all equivalent in
points per assist.
It's easy enough to get Pts/FG for each team. The league avg is 2.66 Pts/FG, and I've arrived at a factor by which assists may be multiplied, to arrive at more equivalency in assists, from team to team.
fac = (TmPts/FG/2.66)^2
Code: Select all
tm Pts/FG fac tm Pts/FG fac
NYK 2.83 1.13 GSW 2.64 .99
Okl 2.82 1.12 Uta 2.61 .96
NJN 2.81 1.12 Tor 2.60 .96
Min 2.80 1.10 Phx 2.60 .95
Ind 2.80 1.10 LAL 2.59 .95
Sac 2.76 1.08 Chi 2.59 .95
Orl 2.74 1.06 SAS 2.59 .95
Dal 2.74 1.06 Det 2.59 .94
Cle 2.72 1.05 Mil 2.58 .94
LAC 2.71 1.04 Phl 2.57 .93
Por 2.71 1.04 NOH 2.55 .92
Den 2.70 1.03 Mem 2.55 .92
Bos 2.69 1.02 Hou 2.54 .91
Atl 2.68 1.01 Cha 2.54 .91
Mia 2.67 1.00 Was 2.52 .90
Of course, each player's Pts and FG could be subtracted from his team's totals, to arrive at that player's specific assist-factor.
The Knicks are 5th in both FT/G and 3FG/G.
Wiz are near the bottom in both.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:20 pm
by EvanZ
Right now I keep track of whether an assist was for a 2-pt or 3-pt shot. Would it help you to have those data? One of these days I will get around to tracking assists on the types of shots that are distinguished in the pbp data (dunks, layups, hooks, tips, in addition to 2-pt or 3-pt jumpers). Maybe that will be useful.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2012 1:44 pm
by Mike G
EvanZ wrote:Right now I keep track of whether an assist was for a 2-pt or 3-pt shot. Would it help you to have those data? One of these days I will get around to tracking assists on the types of shots that are distinguished in the pbp data (dunks, layups, hooks, tips, in addition to 2-pt or 3-pt jumpers). Maybe that will be useful.
Thanks, but:
a) FT points, which are never granted assists, are a large part of this 'correction', and
b) this probably dwarfs any difference in individuals' tending to assist more 3's or dunks or whatever.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:13 pm
by EvanZ
Mike G wrote:
Thanks, but:
a) FT points, which are never granted assists, are a large part of this 'correction', and
b) this probably dwarfs any difference in individuals' tending to assist more 3's or dunks or whatever.
Speaking of (a), do you remember if anybody looked into the question of potential assists on foul shots? That's something I would spend considerable time on in the future. It's interesting.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:28 pm
by Mike G
Much easier is to assume that FT and FG are equally assisted, per scorer and per passer.
In other words, if 60% of a player's FG have been assisted, then 60% of his FT are, as well.
And if a player has assisted 30% of teammates' FG, then he's assisted 30% of FT also.
These assumptions are never going to be 100% true; but they may be within 10% of accurate, 90% of the time.
Generally, I don't believe in making 10 times as much work, for a 10% improvement.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2012 4:26 pm
by EvanZ
It's easier to make that assumption, of course. Like I said, it's something that *I* would be interested in verifying, nevertheless.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 2:39 pm
by Mike G
With the season 24.3% finished
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
15.6 James,Lebron Mia 37 .613 33.3 9.0 7.9 2.1 3.8 1.1 3.28
13.4 Bryant,Kobe LAL 38 .529 33.7 5.6 5.0 1.2 3.6 .3 2.57
12.8 Howard,Dwight Orl 39 .538 21.8 16.4 2.7 1.3 3.2 2.2 2.44
11.5 Love,Kevin Min 39 .528 24.4 13.5 1.7 .9 2.7 .5 2.15
11.4 Durant,Kevin Okl 37 .582 29.1 7.7 3.7 1.2 3.7 1.2 2.28
10.5 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 38 .531 24.8 9.0 2.8 1.3 1.8 .7 2.04
10.1 Anthony,Carmelo NYK 36 .502 28.3 7.4 4.8 1.5 3.5 .4 2.21
10.0 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .513 22.2 12.4 3.2 1.0 3.0 .6 1.98
9.3 Westbrook,Russel Okl 33 .510 24.8 5.6 7.2 2.0 3.9 .2 2.04
9.1 Smith,Josh Atl 34 .489 19.9 10.9 4.0 1.6 2.6 1.5 1.97
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.1 Millsap,Paul Uta 30 .578 23.0 11.5 2.7 2.2 1.5 .7 2.21
8.7 Bosh,Chris Mia 36 .569 23.0 8.7 2.4 1.1 2.8 1.2 1.76
8.7 Jefferson,Al Uta 33 .501 22.2 11.3 2.1 1.1 1.4 1.5 2.06
8.6 Gasol,Marc Mem 38 .577 16.8 11.0 3.0 1.1 1.8 2.2 1.69
8.3 Boozer,Carlos Chi 30 .537 23.5 11.2 2.1 1.4 2.1 .6 2.04
8.2 Anderson,Ryan Orl 31 .602 24.1 9.6 1.0 1.3 .6 .2 1.96
8.1 Monroe,Greg Det 32 .572 19.7 12.9 2.9 1.3 2.8 .8 1.84
8.0 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .496 21.4 3.8 8.5 1.3 2.8 .1 1.79
7.8 Rose,Derrick Chi 37 .545 25.5 3.6 9.0 .9 3.2 .5 2.14
7.7 Hibbert,Roy Ind 29 .550 21.0 12.9 3.3 .4 3.1 1.5 1.93
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.7 Jennings,Brandon Mil 36 .535 22.4 3.4 4.8 1.8 2.4 .2 1.56
7.6 Gasol,Pau LAL 37 .544 17.8 9.5 2.7 .6 1.7 1.3 1.50
7.6 Gortat,Marcin Phx 30 .602 20.5 12.2 1.0 .9 2.2 2.2 1.86
7.5 Johnson,Joe Atl 36 .531 21.8 4.2 4.2 .9 1.6 .3 1.51
7.4 Ellis,Monta GSW 38 .491 22.8 2.9 6.2 1.7 3.7 .3 1.53
7.4 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 31 .533 24.9 7.0 3.0 1.0 2.1 .8 1.87
7.3 Iguodala,Andre Phi 34 .541 17.5 6.9 4.8 2.2 2.2 .7 1.56
7.3 Lowry,Kyle Hou 37 .561 18.1 7.1 7.6 2.1 3.7 .3 1.66
7.2 Deng,Luol Chi 38 .493 18.0 7.5 2.7 1.2 1.7 .7 1.38
7.1 Gallinari,Danilo Den 34 .597 20.1 6.1 3.3 1.9 1.9 .5 1.52
31-40 Lee, Rondo, Bynum, Gay, Irving, Lawson, Nash, D Williams, Duncan, Garnett
41-50 Rubio, David West, Cousins, Paul, Jamison, McGee, Brand, Jack, Conley, Lou Williams
51-60 Pierce, Hawes, Varejao, Bargnani, Harden, Humphries, Wall, Turkoglu, Holiday, Martin
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 3:41 pm
by Mike G
The season is at 32.8%
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
15.8 James,LeBron Mia 38 .610 33.9 9.1 7.8 1.8 4.1 .7 3.24
13.5 Bryant,Kobe LAL 38 .532 33.9 6.2 5.0 1.2 3.8 .4 2.60
12.5 Howard,Dwight Orl 38 .529 22.8 16.2 2.3 1.5 3.3 2.0 2.44
12.2 Love,Kevin Min 39 .564 25.9 13.2 1.6 1.0 2.5 .5 2.27
12.1 Durant,Kevin Okl 37 .593 30.1 8.5 3.3 1.2 3.9 1.3 2.39
11.0 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 36 .538 26.5 9.2 3.2 1.1 2.2 .8 2.22
10.5 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .525 23.1 12.3 3.0 .9 2.9 1.0 2.08
10.0 Westbrook,Russel Okl 34 .520 26.5 5.5 6.9 2.4 4.5 .3 2.14
9.2 Millsap,Paul Uta 32 .558 22.1 11.8 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.0 2.13
9.1 Smith,Josh Atl 34 .477 19.3 11.0 3.9 1.5 2.6 2.2 1.96
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.1 Rose,Derrick Chi 37 .552 27.7 3.5 8.2 1.0 3.2 .7 2.25
9.0 Bosh,Chris Mia 36 .574 23.4 9.0 2.5 1.0 2.3 .9 1.83
9.0 Anthony,Carmelo NYK 35 .501 27.2 7.4 5.2 1.3 3.5 .4 2.17
8.5 Gasol,Marc Mem 38 .545 16.3 10.9 2.9 1.1 1. 2.2 1.63
8.5 Jennings,Brandon Mil 36 .535 23.2 3.6 5.5 1.8 2.4 .2 1.71
8.4 Monroe,Greg Det 32 .557 20.2 13.0 2.5 1.7 2.8 .6 1.89
8.2 Gasol,Pau LAL 37 .547 18.6 9.8 2.9 .5 1.6 1.2 1.60
8.2 Jefferson,Al Uta 33 .503 22.5 11.3 2.5 1.0 1.6 1.8 2.13
8.0 Hibbert,Roy Ind 29 .542 21.2 13.1 2.8 .6 3.3 2.4 2.01
8.0 Pierce,Paul Bos 33 .553 25.0 6.9 6.3 1.2 3.6 .6 2.07
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.0 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .494 21.2 3.5 8.8 1.2 2.9 .0 1.75
8.0 Boozer,Carlos Chi 31 .528 21.7 11.3 2.1 1.4 2.0 .7 1.90
7.9 Johnson,Joe Atl 36 .533 23.2 4.4 4.1 .9 1.8 .3 1.62
7.9 Gortat,Marcin Phx 32 .574 19.8 12.7 1.0 .8 1.9 2.1 1.82
7.9 Iguodala,Andre Phi 35 .537 17.5 7.5 5.5 2.1 2.2 .6 1.65
7.8 Paul,Chris LAC 36 .600 21.9 3.9 9.2 2.6 2.2 .1 2.12
7.6 Irving,Kyrie Cle 29 .588 27.1 4.9 6.4 1.0 4.4 .6 1.95
7.6 Williams,Deron NJN 37 .522 21.7 4.0 8.2 1.0 4.5 .3 1.58
7.5 Bynum,Andrew LAL 34 .555 21.1 13.9 1.3 .5 2.6 2.1 1.97
7.5 Anderson,Ryan Orl 30 .591 23.8 9.7 1.0 1.1 .7 .4 1.91
#31-40 : Garnett, Lee, Gallinari, Duncan, Lowry, Nash, Ellis, Granger, Cousins, Gay
41-50 : Varejao, T Chandler, McGee, Kev Martin, Brand, Wade, Stoudemire, Rubio, Marion, G Wallace
51-60: Lawson, Jack, Nowitzki, David West, Holiday, Nene, Humphries, Teague, Jamison, Conley
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 3:43 pm
by EvanZ
Brandon Jennings is looking good for (true) MIP.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 2:00 am
by Mike G
I had not noticed Marc Gasol becoming better than Pau.
The difference was greater in the Jan. 23 post.
Pau scores more, and Marc does more of everything else.
http://bkref.com/tiny/JgfTw
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 2:36 pm
by Mike G
At .391 of the season, Dwight has solidly seized the #2 spot.
Rose has displaced Millsap from the top 10, and Parker is knocking at the door.
Pau Gasol is coming on strong.
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
15.5 James,Lebron Mia 38 .602 31.5 8.9 7.6 1.7 4.1 .7 3.13
13.6 Howard,Dwight Orl 38 .543 23.2 15.7 2.3 1.5 3.1 2.1 2.61
13.1 Bryant,Kobe LAL 39 .526 32.1 5.7 4.8 1.1 3.6 .3 2.50
12.7 Durant,Kevin Okl 38 .584 28.5 8.5 3.6 1.2 3.6 1.4 2.44
11.5 Love,Kevin Min 39 .564 25.4 12.9 1.7 .9 2.5 .5 2.31
11.3 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 37 .547 26.2 9.0 3.1 1.1 2.3 .8 2.25
11.0 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .539 22.8 12.2 3.2 1.0 2.8 1.0 2.17
10.0 Westbrook,Russel Okl 35 .527 25.6 5.4 6.8 2.1 4.6 .4 2.09
9.6 Rose,Derrick Chi 35 .550 27.4 3.8 8.7 .9 3.0 .7 2.42
9.4 Smith,Josh Atl 34 .487 19.3 10.6 3.7 1.6 2.7 2.3 2.04
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.2 Parker,Tony SAS 34 .509 23.1 3.4 8.7 1.2 2.8 .1 1.98
9.0 Gasol,Pau LAL 37 .544 18.9 10.4 2.9 .5 1.7 1.3 1.76
8.9 Millsap,Paul Uta 31 .564 21.1 12.2 2.5 1.7 1.9 .9 2.08
8.8 Monroe,Greg Det 33 .562 20.2 12.9 2.5 1.7 2.8 .6 1.95
8.6 Pierce,Paul Bos 34 .544 24.2 7.0 6.1 1.1 3.2 .5 2.08
8.5 Bosh,Chris Mia 36 .562 21.6 8.8 2.4 1.0 2.3 .8 1.72
8.4 Bynum,Andrew LAL 35 .562 21.0 13.8 1.3 .5 2.6 2.2 2.10
8.4 Gasol,Marc Mem 38 .540 16.5 10.4 2.6 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.63
8.4 Anthony,Carmelo NYK 34 .496 26.2 6.9 5.0 1.2 3.3 .4 2.12
8.3 Jefferson,Al Uta 33 .497 22.0 10.7 2.5 .8 1.6 1.9 2.12
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.2 Boozer,Carlos Chi 30 .544 22.1 10.9 2.4 1.3 1.9 .6 1.99
8.1 Duncan,Tim SAS 28 .511 21.1 12.2 3.8 1.0 2.5 1.8 2.23
8.0 Williams,Deron NJN 37 .524 21.3 3.8 8.1 1.0 4.3 .4 1.62
7.9 Garnett,Kevin Bos 31 .529 20.3 10.2 3.5 .9 2.4 1.2 1.89
7.9 Paul,Chris LAC 36 .584 20.4 4.0 9.5 2.5 2.1 .1 2.05
7.7 Gortat,Marcin Phx 32 .571 18.6 12.2 1.0 .7 1.9 1.9 1.75
7.7 Hibbert,Roy Ind 30 .529 19.2 12.6 2.5 .6 3.0 2.3 1.87
7.6 Jennings,Brandon Mil 36 .521 21.1 3.6 5.2 1.7 2.3 .3 1.56
7.5 Johnson,Joe Atl 36 .526 22.0 4.5 4.0 .9 1.8 .3 1.54
7.5 Iguodala,Andre Phi 35 .522 16.4 7.2 5.4 1.9 2.0 .5 1.57
7.5 Ellis,Monta GSW 38 .507 22.1 3.4 5.6 1.7 3.6 .4 1.53
#32-40 : R Anderson, Wade, D Lee, Gay, Cousins, Lowry, Irving, Granger, Nash
41-50 : Varejao, Nowitzki, Jamison, T Chandler, Gallinari, Amare', Rubio, T Evans, H
umphries, McGee
51-60 : Lawson, Lou Williams, Marion, Noah, David West, Rondo, Wall, G Wallace, Harden, Holiday
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 3:03 pm
by kjb
Is that Javale McGee in your top 50 for eW?
McGee looks a lot better in the box score than he does on the court. He blocks a lot of shots, but his defense is bad.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 3:39 pm
by Mike G
[I highlighted that because Umphrey's McGee is a band, out of Chicago.]
McGee is about 50% better rebounder than anyone else on the team. He also leads the NBA in blocks% (3rd year running).
His eff% is hardly great, at .502; but the rest of his team shoots .475.
Three players, all guards, are better scorers for the Wizards. He looks like the only credible inside scorer.
The team is not the worst in the league -- the Hornets are vying for worst team of all time.
They're headed for 23.6 eWins on the year. Someone is keeping them competitive, at least some of the time.
Their defense (25th in the league) is somewhat better than their offense (29th).
I suspect maybe his D is bad relative to his blocks and his height; but even if his priorities are questionable, he's still got some strengths.
He's 3rd on the team in minutes, well ahead of #4 (Rashard Lewis).
His PER is tops on the team, his WS 2nd.