Shot Types With and Without You

[EvanZ]

I suggested an APM-style approach in that post:

Just as adjusted +/- is used to account for teammate and opponent quality, something similar is surely needed for this analysis. Some teams like Orlando and Denver shoot many fewer mid-range shots. If you took players off those teams and put them on a different team (like Los Angeles) that shot more mid-range shots, what would they do? It’s not so easy to answer that question yet.

I think I might work on getting mid-range attempts attempted on offense and allowed on defense into a file with the matchup data, so this can be done. Looking at my code, it shouldn't be too difficult.

[Levy2725]

Are you doing this by hand coding play-by-play data?

[EvanZ]

I'm not sure what you mean by "hand coding". Computer coding?

[Levy2725]

I meant are you actually going through each play-by-play log manually, or do you have a program that scrapes the data?

[EvanZ]

I get the play-by-play and matchup files come from basketballvalue.com.

http://basketballvalue.com/downloads.php

[J.E.]

I think what Evan is trying to say that, yes, he does have a computer program scraping the data

[EvanZ]

Jerry, I sent you a pm.

[Crow]

I suggested an APM-style approach in that post:

So you did. I was in a rush and didn't every every word. My apologies.

Good idea seconded.

Hope it happens thru the good works of you and perhaps Jerry.

[EvanZ]

My first crack at adjusted mid-range shooting on offense and defense:

http://thecity2.com/2012/02/04/adjusted ... ting-data/

[EvanZ]

Here is the 3-yr (2009-2011) adjusted mid-range shooting:

http://thecity2.com/2012/02/08/3-year-a ... -shooting/

To summarize, here are the top 10 on offense (negative is better meaning fewer mid-range shots at the team level):

Code: Select all

RANK	NAME	TEAM	OAMRS	DAMRS	TAMRS	POSS
1	 Baron Davis	LAC	-6.97	-0.95	6.02	2446
2	 Manu Ginobili	SAS	-6.93	-1.49	5.44	4727
3	 LeBron James	MIA	-6.89	-0.80	6.09	5812
4	 James Harden	OKC	-6.47	0.00	6.47	4083
5	 Chris Duhon	ORL	-5.50	0.00	5.50	1433
6	 Eric Gordon	LAC	-5.25	-0.24	5.01	4062
7	 James Posey	IND	-5.02	-1.93	3.09	1643
8	 D.J. Augustin	CHA	-5.00	-1.68	3.32	5144
9	 Dwight Howard	ORL	-4.92	8.13	13.05	5464
10	 Devin Harris	NJN	-4.77	-0.67	4.10	3201

Defense:

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RANK	NAME	TEAM	DAMRS	OAMRS	TAMRS	POSS
1	 Shaquille O'Neal	BOS	8.29	-1.72	10.01	1417
2	 Dwight Howard	ORL	8.13	-4.92	13.05	5464
3	 Tim Duncan	SAS	7.03	4.29	2.74	4175
4	 Kurt Thomas	CHI	6.45	6.73	-0.28	2127
5	 Roy Hibbert	IND	6.16	0.73	5.43	4431
6	 Andrew Bogut	MIL	5.75	-2.48	8.23	4225
7	 Erick Dampier	MIA	5.64	6.65	-1.01	1553
8	 Jeff Foster	IND	5.55	8.23	-2.68	1805
9	 Omer Asik	CHI	5.52	2.45	3.07	1819
10	 Zydrunas Ilgauskas	MIA	5.14	7.57	-2.43	2161

Total (-offense + defense):

Code: Select all

RANK	NAME	TEAM	TAMRS	OAMRS	DAMRS	POSS
1	 Dwight Howard	ORL	13.05	-4.92	8.13	5464
2	 Shaquille O'Neal	BOS	10.01	-1.72	8.29	1417
3	 Andrew Bogut	MIL	8.23	-2.48	5.75	4225
4	 James Harden	OKC	6.47	-6.47	0.00	4083
5	 LeBron James	MIA	6.09	-6.89	-0.80	5812
6	 Shane Battier	HOU	6.09	-3.95	2.14	3573
7	 Baron Davis	LAC	6.02	-6.97	-0.95	2446
8	 Matt Bonner	SAS	5.95	-1.23	4.72	2742
9	 Hedo Turkoglu	PHX	5.53	-3.83	1.70	1211
10	 Chris Duhon	ORL	5.50	-5.50	0.00	1433

I posted this comment after the article:

What’s really interesting to me is that this essentially confirms my thoughts about “overshooting”. The effects are not as large as many (most?) probably expect. The worst “overshooter” last season was quite obviously Evan Turner at 8+. Every other player around him on that list is not a high volume shooter, but rather, a low volume/usg shooter. What should be surprising to people is that it is these players who really cause their teams to shoot more mid-range jump shots more often than the other kind of player. That’s really interesting to me, and I think it’s a story that needs to be told.