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Re: Shot Types With and Without You
Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 1:39 pm
by EvanZ
I suggested an APM-style approach in that post:
Just as adjusted +/- is used to account for teammate and opponent quality, something similar is surely needed for this analysis. Some teams like Orlando and Denver shoot many fewer mid-range shots. If you took players off those teams and put them on a different team (like Los Angeles) that shot more mid-range shots, what would they do? It’s not so easy to answer that question yet.
I think I might work on getting mid-range attempts attempted on offense and allowed on defense into a file with the matchup data, so this can be done. Looking at my code, it shouldn't be too difficult.
Re: Shot Types With and Without You
Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:33 pm
by Levy2725
Are you doing this by hand coding play-by-play data?
Re: Shot Types With and Without You
Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 6:27 pm
by EvanZ
I'm not sure what you mean by "hand coding". Computer coding?
Re: Shot Types With and Without You
Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:21 pm
by Levy2725
I meant are you actually going through each play-by-play log manually, or do you have a program that scrapes the data?
Re: Shot Types With and Without You
Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:23 pm
by EvanZ
I get the play-by-play and matchup files come from basketballvalue.com.
http://basketballvalue.com/downloads.php
Re: Shot Types With and Without You
Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:05 pm
by J.E.
I think what Evan is trying to say that, yes, he does have a computer program scraping the data
Re: Shot Types With and Without You
Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 11:03 pm
by EvanZ
Jerry, I sent you a pm.
Re: Shot Types With and Without You
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 4:31 am
by Crow
EvanZ wrote:I suggested an APM-style approach in that post:
So you did. I was in a rush and didn't every every word. My apologies.
Good idea seconded.
Hope it happens thru the good works of you and perhaps Jerry.
Re: Shot Types With and Without You
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 10:13 pm
by EvanZ
My first crack at adjusted mid-range shooting on offense and defense:
http://thecity2.com/2012/02/04/adjusted ... ting-data/
Re: Shot Types With and Without You
Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 3:28 pm
by EvanZ
Here is the 3-yr (2009-2011) adjusted mid-range shooting:
http://thecity2.com/2012/02/08/3-year-a ... -shooting/
To summarize, here are the top 10 on offense (negative is better meaning fewer mid-range shots at the team level):
Code: Select all
RANK NAME TEAM OAMRS DAMRS TAMRS POSS
1 Baron Davis LAC -6.97 -0.95 6.02 2446
2 Manu Ginobili SAS -6.93 -1.49 5.44 4727
3 LeBron James MIA -6.89 -0.80 6.09 5812
4 James Harden OKC -6.47 0.00 6.47 4083
5 Chris Duhon ORL -5.50 0.00 5.50 1433
6 Eric Gordon LAC -5.25 -0.24 5.01 4062
7 James Posey IND -5.02 -1.93 3.09 1643
8 D.J. Augustin CHA -5.00 -1.68 3.32 5144
9 Dwight Howard ORL -4.92 8.13 13.05 5464
10 Devin Harris NJN -4.77 -0.67 4.10 3201
Defense:
Code: Select all
RANK NAME TEAM DAMRS OAMRS TAMRS POSS
1 Shaquille O'Neal BOS 8.29 -1.72 10.01 1417
2 Dwight Howard ORL 8.13 -4.92 13.05 5464
3 Tim Duncan SAS 7.03 4.29 2.74 4175
4 Kurt Thomas CHI 6.45 6.73 -0.28 2127
5 Roy Hibbert IND 6.16 0.73 5.43 4431
6 Andrew Bogut MIL 5.75 -2.48 8.23 4225
7 Erick Dampier MIA 5.64 6.65 -1.01 1553
8 Jeff Foster IND 5.55 8.23 -2.68 1805
9 Omer Asik CHI 5.52 2.45 3.07 1819
10 Zydrunas Ilgauskas MIA 5.14 7.57 -2.43 2161
Total (-offense + defense):
Code: Select all
RANK NAME TEAM TAMRS OAMRS DAMRS POSS
1 Dwight Howard ORL 13.05 -4.92 8.13 5464
2 Shaquille O'Neal BOS 10.01 -1.72 8.29 1417
3 Andrew Bogut MIL 8.23 -2.48 5.75 4225
4 James Harden OKC 6.47 -6.47 0.00 4083
5 LeBron James MIA 6.09 -6.89 -0.80 5812
6 Shane Battier HOU 6.09 -3.95 2.14 3573
7 Baron Davis LAC 6.02 -6.97 -0.95 2446
8 Matt Bonner SAS 5.95 -1.23 4.72 2742
9 Hedo Turkoglu PHX 5.53 -3.83 1.70 1211
10 Chris Duhon ORL 5.50 -5.50 0.00 1433
I posted this comment after the article:
What’s really interesting to me is that this essentially confirms my thoughts about “overshooting”. The effects are not as large as many (most?) probably expect. The worst “overshooter” last season was quite obviously Evan Turner at 8+. Every other player around him on that list is not a high volume shooter, but rather, a low volume/usg shooter. What should be surprising to people is that it is these players who really cause their teams to shoot more mid-range jump shots more often than the other kind of player. That’s really interesting to me, and I think it’s a story that needs to be told.