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Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:05 pm
by DSMok1
Crow wrote:It appears that no rookie has yet managed to get a positive rating on prior-informed new XRAPM. Waiters the best currently at -1.3? Crowder -1.7, then MKG at -1.9. Anthony Davis at -3.6 (in fewer games). With more time, they have a better chance to do so.
That's more a problem with xRAPM than anything else. All of the players that aged from last season to this are still assumed (the prior) to be at their level from last season--and the decline in lineup performance is thrown on the rookies.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:22 pm
by Crow
Rookie performance measuring was a key reason that the non-prior informed RAPM was valuable to have in addition to the prior-informed version.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:02 pm
by J.E.
DSMok1 wrote:All of the players that aged from last season to this are still assumed (the prior) to be at their level from last season
85% of the performance of last season.
Remember that rookies start out with -1/-1, because that gave best prediction results (and is thus our best guess of what an average rookie does in his first season).
If rookies of the past had performed better in comparison to non-rookies, the prior would be higher; but they haven't.
Moving away from the -1 prior is definitely possible, even in limited minutes (see Anthony Davis, -1 -> -2.6)
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 1:29 pm
by DSMok1
J.E. wrote:DSMok1 wrote:All of the players that aged from last season to this are still assumed (the prior) to be at their level from last season
85% of the performance of last season.
Remember that rookies start out with -1/-1, because that gave best prediction results (and is thus our best guess of what an average rookie does in his first season).
If rookies of the past had performed better in comparison to non-rookies, the prior would be higher; but they haven't.
Moving away from the -1 prior is definitely possible, even in limited minutes (see Anthony Davis, -1 -> -2.6)
85%... does that mean that below-average players are assumed to increase, even as they age? That's not good... there are a ton of below-average, older than 27 players in the league. There is likely some measure of systematic bias due to aging going on (I'm sure you are aware of that.)
You also might consider draft pick number in assigning the prior, when you have time. It is pretty significant.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 2:35 pm
by KAN
I like both of those suggestions from DSMok. Clearly draft pick order is going to be significant in predicting the value of a rookie. I'm not sure how much value an aging curve adds but I'd be interested to see.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:52 pm
by Mike G
Season now 24% played, and rookies are headed for 65 eWins -- 36 in the East, 29 in the West.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.8 Lillard,Damian Por 38 .549 19.6 3.3 6.0 1.2 3.1 .2 1.22
5.7 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha 27 .533 14.4 8.6 2.3 1.3 2.1 1.9 1.22
3.9 Shved,Alexey Min 25 .525 16.4 3.7 4.9 .9 2.8 .7 .93
3.9 Drummond,Andre Det 18 .554 11.8 11.6 .7 1.5 1.4 2.2 1.26
3.7 Valanciunas,Jona Tor 23 .536 13.0 9.0 1.8 .5 2.1 1.8 .95
3.4 Beal,Bradley Was 28 .467 15.4 4.6 2.5 1.2 2.1 .8 .73
3.3 Barnes,Harrison GSW 28 .507 12.5 6.6 2.1 .8 1.7 .2 .71
3.1 Waiters,Dion Cle 32 .459 16.9 2.9 3.5 1.4 2.2 .2 .71
2.8 Davis,Anthony NOH 28 .555 21.4 11.9 1.0 1.3 2.0 2.9 1.82
2.3 Sullinger,Jared Bos 18 .535 9.9 9.9 1.0 .6 1.1 1.0 .75
2.2 Singler,Kyle Det 28 .582 12.8 4.7 1.1 .6 1.4 .7 .48
2.1 Nicholson,Andrew Orl 14 .598 19.0 6.1 1.0 .7 1.9 .7 .92
2.0 Prigioni,Pablo NYK 14 .581 8.6 3.1 6.9 2.1 2.7 .0 .88
1.9 Roberts,Brian NOH 17 .530 16.5 2.1 4.5 .8 2.2 .1 .68
1.6 Harkless,Maurice Orl 18 .475 7.5 7.8 1.0 1.2 .9 1.5 .62
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.6 Leonard,Meyers Por 18 .579 8.6 7.1 .3 .7 1.1 1.8 .50
1.5 Zeller,Tyler Cle 22 .458 9.8 8.4 1.1 .7 1.7 .9 .48
1.5 Ezeli,Festus GSW 16 .448 6.5 9.5 .4 .9 1.9 2.2 .53
1.4 Crowder,Jae Dal 19 .468 10.1 4.7 2.0 2.0 1.2 .5 .45
1.2 Robinson,Thomas Sac 16 .473 9.3 8.1 1.6 1.5 2.6 .9 .49
1.2 Henson,John Mil 12 .463 13.8 9.4 1.2 .6 1.7 1.5 .83
1.1 Taylor,Jeffery Cha 26 .514 10.5 3.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 .5 .26
1.1 James,Bernard Dal 12 .528 9.2 9.3 .2 .5 1.4 2.5 .71
1.0 Decolo,Nando SAS 13 .491 9.7 4.8 5.3 1.1 3.1 .3 .61
0.8 O'Quinn,Kyle Orl 6 .524 11.4 11.7 2.6 .5 1.4 3.3 1.55
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:18 pm
by Crow
Kyle O'Quinn has great boxscore stats per minute in small minutes. Great counterpart stats at PF. Great raw +/-. XRAPM still have him negative but moving up from initial replacement level. has yet to get 9+ minutes in a game. I don't know hardly anything about him before a few minutes ago but I think I'd try higher minutes at least a few times later this season and see what he does with them. Ayon is down from what he was last season on boxscore stats but has a modestly positive xRAPM. Davis only about neutral on xRAPM. IPV doesn't currently like 0'Quinn but also has Ayon's and Davis' estimates lower than xRAPM by about a point each. I doubt they make the playoffs and not sure they really want to, so now or soon seems a pretty good time for experimentation.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:01 pm
by Mike G
The season is at 28.4%
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
8.2 Lillard,Damian Por 38 .540 20.0 3.5 5.9 2.1 1.1 2.9 .2 1.27
5.3 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha 28 .526 14.1 8.8 2.2 3.6 1.1 2.1 1.7 1.12
4.4 Shved,Alexey Min 26 .531 16.2 3.4 5.2 2.4 1.1 2.6 .5 .99
3.9 Valanciunas,Jona Tor 23 .544 13.3 9.3 1.8 5.0 .5 2.3 2.0 1.01
3.8 Beal,Bradley Was 29 .472 15.9 4.7 2.5 2.5 1.2 2.3 .7 .77
3.7 Drummond,Andre Det 18 .560 11.3 11.5 .7 3.3 1.4 1.3 2.4 1.18
3.4 Barnes,Harrison GSW 27 .500 13.2 6.4 2.3 2.9 .9 1.7 .2 .76
3.2 Davis,Anthony NOH 29 .564 19.3 10.1 .9 2.7 1.4 2.3 2.6 1.50
2.9 Waiters,Dion Cle 32 .459 17.4 2.9 3.5 2.0 1.4 2.2 .2 .78
2.2 Nicholson,Andrew Orl 15 .589 17.9 6.7 .8 3.8 .6 1.7 .9 .88
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
2.1 Sullinger,Jared Bos 17 .513 9.3 10.2 1.0 4.9 .7 1.1 1.0 .71
2.1 Singler,Kyle Det 28 .547 11.8 4.9 1.4 4.0 .6 1.3 .6 .43
2.0 Roberts,Brian NOH 17 .525 16.4 2.0 4.4 1.9 .9 2.0 .1 .71
1.7 Prigioni,Pablo NYK 14 .550 7.4 3.7 6.4 2.8 2.2 2.5 .0 .77
1.5 Harkless,Maurice Orl 18 .450 7.1 7.9 1.0 3.3 1.2 1.0 2.1 .57
1.4 Zeller,Tyler Cle 22 .478 9.8 8.0 1.1 4.6 .8 1.8 .7 .45
1.4 Crowder,Jae Dal 19 .470 10.1 4.6 2.2 3.6 2.0 1.1 .4 .48
1.2 Leonard,Meyers Por 18 .578 8.2 7.1 .3 4.0 .7 1.0 1.6 .42
1.1 Rivers,Austin NOH 28 .434 9.8 3.1 3.2 2.7 .9 1.8 .2 .25
1.1 Decolo,Nando SAS 12 .504 10.3 4.9 4.7 2.2 1.3 2.8 .4 .65
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.0 Henson,John Mil 12 .440 12.5 9.4 1.1 4.4 .6 1.5 1.8 .77
0.9 Robinson,Thomas Sac 16 .446 8.2 8.1 1.4 4.1 1.2 2.5 .9 .36
0.9 Ezeli,Festus GSW 16 .432 6.0 9.1 .4 5.4 .8 2.0 2.1 .35
0.8 Taylor,Jeffery Cha 26 .508 9.7 3.5 1.3 3.2 1.3 1.2 .4 .20
0.8 James,Bernard Dal 11 .519 8.1 9.2 .2 3.5 .5 1.3 2.4 .57
0.6 O'Quinn,Kyle Orl 6 .524 11.5 11.4 2.6 4.2 .5 1.9 3.2 1.37
0.5 Green,Draymond GSW 14 .339 4.7 8.5 1.3 5.1 1.6 1.4 .6 .19
0.4 Copeland,Chris NYK 6 .554 19.4 3.1 1.6 2.2 .7 1.4 .4 .74
0.4 Jones,Terrence Hou 9 .472 10.9 6.5 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 .59
0.3 Ross,Terrence Tor 17 .447 10.3 4.2 1.2 3.5 1.2 1.6 .5 .12
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:45 pm
by talkingpractice
We've begun posting a Top 10 Rookies list on our site. Here they are as of Dec 14th by IPV, with comments on their priors below. The numbers are different if we look at production (ie consider MP more), with Lillard still quite a bit ahead, but Singler and MKG at least somewhere in sight. Those values are on the site too.
Rank Player IPV
1 Damian Lillard -0.27
2 Brian Roberts -0.77
3 Andre Drummond -0.87
4 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist -0.99
5 Andrew Nicholson -1.16
6 Kyle Singler -1.27
7 Alexey Shved -1.39
8 Dion Waiters -1.48
9 Frida -1.59
10 Jeff Taylor -1.80
Re: how we set their "prior". We set everyone into 4 bins based initially on draft position. But we then cheat in the sense of letting the players "prior" actually change a bit over the course of the early part of the season, while their MPG (adjusted for team SRS) settles in a bit. In other words, we use that info to reallocate players a bit between the bins, just during the first 20% of the season. Each of those bins is attached to a different value ranging from -1.5 for the bin of top rookies, to -3.3 for the guys who shouldn't be playing. After that, all is as normal.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:55 pm
by Mike G
Who is "Frida"?
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:37 pm
by talkingpractice
Sorry, bad attempt at humor. The other famous unibrow =
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frida_Kahlo
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:38 pm
by EvanZ
Funny, that's the only Frida I knew, but I didn't put 2 and 2 together. Makes sense.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 6:02 pm
by Mike G
Season at 32.8%, rookies now project to 66.5 eWins added to their teams.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
8.2 Lillard,Damian Por 38 .539 19.5 3.4 6.3 2.0 1.1 2.9 .2 1.27
5.6 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha 28 .546 14.5 8.6 2.2 3.3 1.1 2.1 1.8 1.17
4.2 Shved,Alexey Min 27 .513 14.7 3.6 5.7 2.6 1.0 2.8 .4 .90
4.1 Valanciunas,Jona Tor 22 .553 13.8 9.5 1.8 4.9 .5 2.3 1.9 1.09
4.0 Drummond,Andre Det 19 .534 11.5 12.0 .8 3.1 1.3 1.3 2.5 1.25
3.8 Davis,Anthony NOH 31 .556 17.9 10.4 .7 2.8 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.39
3.5 Beal,Bradley Was 30 .462 15.7 4.5 2.5 2.5 1.2 2.1 .6 .74
2.9 Barnes,Harrison GSW 26 .475 12.4 6.3 2.1 2.9 1.0 1.6 .2 .66
2.9 Waiters,Dion Cle 32 .450 17.0 3.1 3.6 2.4 1.4 2.4 .2 .74
2.2 Singler,Kyle Det 29 .531 11.9 5.2 1.2 3.9 .6 1.3 .6 .45
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
2.0 Sullinger,Jared Bos 17 .496 9.1 10.1 1.2 5.4 .7 1.2 .9 .68
1.9 Nicholson,Andrew Orl 15 .555 17.0 6.8 .8 3.8 .7 2.0 .8 .78
1.9 Harkless,Maurice Orl 17 .483 8.5 8.0 .9 3.2 1.5 1.1 1.9 .71
1.8 Prigioni,Pablo NYK 13 .571 8.9 3.6 6.5 3.0 2.2 2.4 .0 .83
1.7 Roberts,Brian NOH 17 .509 15.4 2.0 4.3 2.0 1.1 2.1 .1 .63
1.7 Zeller,Tyler Cle 24 .475 10.5 8.0 1.0 4.5 .8 1.7 .7 .49
1.3 Leonard,Meyers Por 17 .600 9.5 6.8 .4 4.0 .7 1.2 1.5 .47
1.3 Crowder,Jae Dal 19 .459 10.4 4.7 2.0 3.7 1.9 1.1 .3 .44
1.3 Decolo,Nando SAS 12 .540 10.8 4.6 5.3 2.6 1.3 2.9 .3 .73
1.1 Ezeli,Festus GSW 16 .441 6.3 10.0 .5 5.3 .7 2.5 2.2 .43
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
0.9 Henson,John Mil 11 .447 12.8 9.3 1.0 4.4 .5 1.5 1.6 .79
0.9 Rivers,Austin NOH 28 .422 9.8 3.4 2.9 2.8 .7 1.9 .2 .20
0.9 James,Bernard Dal 12 .531 9.4 9.5 .3 3.2 .6 1.3 2.5 .72
0.9 Copeland,Chris NYK 9 .613 22.9 3.4 1.0 2.6 .9 1.5 .5 1.00
0.8 Green,Draymond GSW 15 .367 5.5 8.3 1.7 4.7 1.7 1.3 .6 .33
0.8 Robinson,Thomas Sac 16 .447 8.3 8.1 1.2 4.0 1.2 2.5 1.0 .33
0.8 Taylor,Jeffery Cha 24 .472 9.3 4.0 1.2 3.1 1.3 1.1 .4 .21
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 4:29 pm
by kai
any reason why Alexey Shved isn't on the list?
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 4:35 pm
by v-zero
He's third down from the top...