APBRmetrics

AcrossTheCourt wrote:On a related note, is there a place with half-court offensive efficiency for teams?

deepak wrote:Morey did an AMA on reddit recently. He was asked about the the Rockets not taking mid-range shots. His answer:

"One interesting thing is that folks think we are proscribing mid-range shots, which is not the case. Our transition based attack and open sets give us the best chance to win with our personnel and generally this type of offense leads to high quality shots"

dblack wrote:...I decided to look at each team's eFG% and see how much is gained or lost from shot selection and how much is gained or lost from just simply being a good shooting team...

...So the shooting factor represents how much above/below average a team's eFG% is as a result of their shooting ability and the shot selection factor represents how much above/below average a team's eFG% is as a result of their shot selection. I realize there is more to a team's eFG% and this is a pretty basic way of looking at this but I still found the results pretty interesting.

schtevie wrote:
(2) If you might be similarly motivated, the defensive counterpart figures can also be calculated. Just off the top, I see that Memphis' locational shortcomings on offense do not translate to their defensive efforts. To the contrary, their opponents shooting disproportionately from mid-range. Perhaps strange.

team   effective_FG%  shooting_factor  shot_selection_factor
Ind             45.3            -2.9                  -1.5
OKC             46.9            -2.8                   0.1
Mem             47.5            -1.8                  -0.3
Chi             47.7            -1.1                  -0.8
SA             48.0            -1.0                  -0.7
Bos             48.2            -1.8                   0.4
Was             48.3            -0.8                  -0.5
GS             48.6            -0.4                  -0.7
Mia             48.7            -1.3                   0.4
LAC             49.2            -0.2                  -0.3
Dal             49.2            -0.7                   0.2
Mil             49.2            -1.2                   0.8
Den             49.3            -0.9                   0.6
Phi             49.5             0.2                  -0.3
LAL             49.6             0.2                  -0.3
Atl             49.6             0.0                  -0.1
Tor             50.0             0.5                  -0.2
Uta             50.1             0.4                   0.1
Hou             50.2             1.1                  -0.5
Bkn             50.3             1.0                  -0.3
Det             50.5             0.3                   0.5
Orl             50.8             1.3                  -0.1
NY             50.8             0.7                   0.5
Min             51.1             1.8                  -0.3
Pho             51.2             1.7                  -0.1
Por             51.2             1.1                   0.5
Sac             51.7             2.3                  -0.2
NO             52.0             1.3                   1.0
Cle             52.3             2.3                   0.3
Cha             52.4             1.3                   1.4

(3) And for an extension, it should be straightforward to incorporate free throw shooting, making it a TS% decomposition - at least take a first stab at it. The 82games story I referenced previously (http://www.82games.com/locations.htm - what is quite excellent, by the way) suggests that the vast majority of shooting fouls occur within the paint. Assigning ratios to each zone, as suggested by this article, should yield a pretty good estimate.

(4) One factor that needs to be taken into account is the "James Harden effect". A significant bit, but not all, of Houston's "optimal" behavior this year is embodied in the predilections of James Harden (vs. those whose minutes he replaced). If anyone is ambitious, team shooting factors could also be decomposed into individual and team effects.

Crow wrote:When we talk about using analytics it is almost always focused on the activity of or directed at management (GMs, consultants, coaches). Another pathway is by players perhaps independent of team action. I have wondered how much agents are aware of and using the available (or possible) data with their clients and not just using it for contract talks with management but using it to shape their player's behavior and best "position" them for future contract talks. I know some are using it, I just don't know how aggressively. A simple example: Harden's shot distribution chart (pretty low on mid-range shots and very high on at the rim / foul shots and 3 pointers) would seem to be a good model for many wings to try (really hard and disciplined) to emulate. But players and agents could benefit from being pro-active in many more detailed ways. There could be conflicts over how a player plays with the benefit of analytics. The way that is best for the team and the way that is best for the player. The conflict is no surprise but it might be discussed / fought somewhat differently with more and better analytic data.