2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs

[Mike G]

Spurs 3, Heat 3
avg score: SA 99.3 - 97.3 Mia
Pyth Wins: 3.39 - 2.61, eWins: 3.20 - 2.80
With one overtime session, it's 488 player minutes per 1.00 win.

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eWins  per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
1.02  Lebron James  Mia   43  .491   20.1   9.7   5.4   1.1   2.0   2.8   .8   1.95
.90   Tim Duncan    SAS   35  .543   20.2  14.6   1.3   2.1    .4   2.5  1.6   2.09
.77   Kawhi Leonard SAS   35  .597   15.9  12.5   1.0   2.5   2.3    .9   .4   1.79
.67   Chris Bosh    Mia   35  .516   14.8  10.3   1.9   2.4   2.1   1.1  1.7   1.54
.56   Dwyane Wade   Mia   36  .491   19.8   3.3   4.5   1.7   2.2   2.3  1.2   1.26

.50   Danny Green   SAS   35  .738   18.8   4.8    .8   3.7    .9   1.1  1.8   1.15
.47   Tony Parker   SAS   35  .478   18.1   2.6   6.6   1.1    .7   2.5   .2   1.10
.22   Mike Miller   Mia   22  1.09   13.2   5.0   1.4   4.1    .6    .7   .6    .82
.20   Ray Allen     Mia   29  .763   17.2   2.6   1.2   3.2    .2   1.5   .0    .58
.12   Manu Ginobili SAS   27  .525   14.7   3.0   5.0   4.2   1.1   4.2   .0    .37

eWins  per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
.11   Gary Neal     SAS   24  .575   15.7   3.6   1.1   1.9    .0   1.8   .0    .38
.06  Chris Andersen Mia    9  .679   13.8   7.6    .0   9.0   2.6   2.4  1.3    .59
.05   Shane Battier Mia   10  .512   12.4   4.4   2.5   5.3    .0    .0  1.2    .42
.05  Tiago Splitter SAS   17  .500   12.3   5.9   1.0   3.7   1.1   3.6  1.1    .23
.05   Matt Bonner   SAS    6  .500   10.5   7.6    .9   1.9   1.0    .0   .0    .66

.04  Mario Chalmers Mia   30  .531   12.8   4.2   2.3   3.1    .6   3.5   .0    .11
.04   Boris Diaw    SAS   14  .528    8.4   5.7   3.4   2.5    .0   2.2   .4    .25
.03   Cory Joseph   SAS    7  .458    8.9   5.5   4.3    .0   1.6   4.3   .0    .35
.00   Udonis Haslem Mia   10  .474    5.4  11.2    .0   8.0    .0    .8   .6    .04
-.08  Norris Cole   Mia   14  .326    5.5   2.2   4.2   3.8   1.7   2.6   .4   -.47                       

Shooting: SA .549 - .540 Mia
Rebounds: SA 41.0 - 38.5 Mia
Turnovers: Mia 13.5 - 14.5 SA

[Crow]

The lineup with Ginobili for Splitter has been negative in every use against the Heat, badly in all but one.



Subbing Diaw into lineup with rest of starters has worked several times against the Heat with one exception.

[Mike G]

Heat 4, Spurs 3
Average score: SA 97.7 - 97.0 Mia
Pyth Wins: SA 3.67 - 3.33 Mia, eWins 3.58 - 3.42

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eWins  per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e487
1.45  Lebron James  Mia   43  .522   22.7   9.8   5.6   1.2   1.9   2.5   .7   2.34
1.08  Tim Duncan    SAS   36  .543   20.5  13.8   1.4   2.3    .9   2.5  1.4   2.06
.86   Kawhi Leonard SAS   36  .576   15.4  12.7    .9   2.3   2.0   1.1   .4   1.63
.79   Dwyane Wade   Mia   36  .496   20.5   4.3   4.5   1.4   2.0   2.5  1.3   1.51
.63   Chris Bosh    Mia   34  .485   12.7  10.2   2.2   2.9   1.8   1.3  1.7   1.29

.55   Tony Parker   SAS   35  .464   16.7   2.2   6.8   1.0   1.0   2.4   .1   1.08
.39   Danny Green   SAS   35  .645   15.5   4.8    .7   3.6   1.0   1.3  1.6    .76
.27   Manu Ginobili SAS   28  .547   16.3   3.0   5.4   4.1    .9   4.3   .0    .66
.18   Ray Allen     Mia   27  .705   15.6   3.1   1.9   3.2    .2   1.9   .0    .47
.16   Shane Battier Mia   12  .684   15.7   4.5   2.2   3.8    .4    .0   .8    .89

eWins  per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e487
.11   Mike Miller   Mia   22  .841   10.1   4.8   1.4   4.1   1.0    .6   .5    .36
.09   Gary Neal     SAS   24  .550   13.7   3.9   1.2   2.0    .0   1.7   .0    .26
.09   Boris Diaw    SAS   14  .600    9.6   6.0   3.5   2.8    .0   1.9   .4    .46
.07  Chris Andersen Mia   10  .688   12.2   7.6    .0   7.6   1.9   2.2  1.4    .51
.06  Tiago Splitter SAS   15  .500   12.0   5.3   1.0   3.7   1.7   3.3  1.0    .27

.05  Mario Chalmers Mia   32  .503   12.8   3.4   2.4   3.0    .8   3.5   .0    .11
.03   Cory Joseph   SAS    6  .458    8.9   5.2   4.6    .0   1.5   4.1   .0    .39
.03   Matt Bonner   SAS    5  .500    9.2   7.2    .9   1.8    .9    .0   .0    .46
-.02  Udonis Haslem Mia    9  .474    4.6  10.5    .0   8.7    .0    .7   .6   -.19
-.05  Norris Cole   Mia   12  .326    5.3   2.2   4.8   3.7   1.6   2.4   .4   -.27

Shooting: .538 - .538
Rebounds: SA 41.2 - 39.1 Mia
Turnovers: Mia 13.6 - 14.6 SA

[dtjmcauliffe]

Even as a Spurs fan, I can admit that was an incredible series.

It really isn't fair that LeBron is allowed to play in the NBA. He's a different species.

[Crow]

T. Duncan | D. Green | K. Leonard | T. Parker | T. Splitter ended up very strongly positive overall (couple of bad games, couple of good I think) but used only 33 minutes total against the Heat. With Ginobli instead of Splitter had a strong last game but only pulled up to just slightly below 0 overall per 100 possessions. Got used twice as much as the traditional starting lineup. Mistake? I'd have to review it closer to judge fully and fairly but obviously this tilt in the lineup allocation on its own was not a big success and probably was not optimal.

Miami may have made "mistakes" with too much time for or bad timing of Wade lineups as well. At least on paper by raw net +/- they did.

[v-zero]

The problem with always running the Green lineups in a series is that the guy is hugely limited, so once teams adapt (as Miami eventually did) he becomes a burden. He's a brilliant spot-up shooter and can hit the three off the dribble in space, but as soon as the guy approaches the paint or has to put the ball on the floor too much he is an enormous liability. Call it experience if you like, but like so many whose handle is shaky he hits panic stations as soon as he gets trapped, and doesn't have the composure that a guy like Ginobili or Parker does. Ginobili had a poor series by his standards, and Parker was obviously not fit - in the moments in which he was himself he carved gaping holes in the Heat with ease. I do not personally like seeing Ginobili and Parker share the floor, because Ginobili isn't really an SG, and Parker isn't really a PG.

[Bobbofitos]

Meh, Spurs won the series point differential. They were better. They lost though. Oh well.

[Crow]

Neither finalist this time was really driven to success by their biggest minute lineup at least in the finals. Miami had the 2nd best lineup used in the playoffs over 50 minutes, R. Allen | C. Andersen | S. Battier | N. Cole | L. James, thus meeting the historical trend to have a top 6 lineup (and the Spurs ended not having it) but they choose not to use it all in the finals. In such a situation I think the coach's share of the credit / blame might be somewhat higher than when teams run out a huge minute lineup al the time and win based on that.

I've thought of cataloging and analyzing the lineup match-up with the biggest +/- swings in the finals but they may have to wait a bit. Not sure there is much interest or perceived significance in the topic anyways. Here or inside teams though.

[xkonk]

Meh, Spurs won the series point differential. They were better. They lost though. Oh well.

I would generally agree, but there were really only three competitive games in the series. With all that garbage time I'm not sure of what to make of the overall point differential.

[Mike G]

The Spurs scored 50.18% of the points; resulting in 52.4% of the pythagorean wins and 51.2% of the (player-equivalent) eWins.

Pyth wins are a funny thing. If we subtract the previous total from the most current (as reported in this thread, after 2 games, 3 games, etc -- we can see the pWin and eWin change due to each game.

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.    score     total pW     total eW     game pW    game eW
G   SA  Mia    SA    Mia    SA   Mia     SA   Mia   SA   Mia
1   92   88    .64   .36   .57   .43    .64   .36   .57  .43
2   84  103    .50  1.50   .75  1.25   -.14  1.14   .18  .82

3  113   77   2.20   .80  1.85  1.15   1.70  -.70  1.10 -.10 
4   93  109   2.17  1.83  2.09  1.91   -.03  1.03   .24  .76 
5  114  104   3.00  2.00  2.75  2.25    .83   .17   .66  .34

6  100  103   3.39  2.61  3.20  2.80    .39   .61   .45  .55
7   88   95   3.67  3.33  3.58  3.42    .28   .72   .39  .61

In a given game, it's impossible for a team to get more than 1.00 pWin (or eWin).
But by cumulative totals, it is deduced that there were 3 games with 'impossible' pWins.
One game had 'impossible' eWins, but the magnitude of the impossibility was just 1/7 that of the pWins.

[v-zero]

That's simply a result of the fact that those aren't cumulative pythagorean wins, but rather the pythagorean wins recalculated using cumulative point totals. To not have this behaviour you should treat each game's pythag wins as its own measurement, and accumulate these. This method will cause blowouts to have their impact limited.

[Mike G]

Aye, matey. In fact, if we calculate pythagorean wins for each game, we get quite a different total.

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.     score     pyth wins    cumulative
G   Mia   SA    Mia    SA     Mia    SA
1    88   92    .36   .64     .36    .64
2   103   84    .94   .06    1.30    .70

3    77  113    .01   .99    1.30   1.70
4   109   93    .89   .11    2.20   1.80
5   104  114    .23   .77    2.42   2.58

6   103  100    .60   .40    3.02   2.98
7    95   88    .74   .26    3.76   3.24

It kinda quantifies the notion that "a win is a win", whether by 3 or by 33.

[huevonkiller]

Meh, Spurs won the series point differential. They were better. They lost though. Oh well.

I would generally agree, but there were really only three competitive games in the series. With all that garbage time I'm not sure of what to make of the overall point differential.

Yes I had the same thought as well throughout the series.