How many teams have a 10+% chance to win title next season?

[talkingpractice]

xkonk the lines right now are 100% square money.

[NBAMetrics]

Sharps aren't going to tie up their bankroll and force themselves to fade injuries/trades/signings for ten months. All the teams will probably be available at better prices at some point in the season anyway.

I'd say MIA, IND, HOU, OKC, and SAS all have a 10+% chance of winning the title at this (very early) point.

[Dr Positivity]

Yeah pretty sure the sharps don't touch those long bets. If a team is over or undervalued, they'll get as much out of jumping on the lines at the beginning of the season, without having to tie up money all year, giving up interest by not having it in the bank, etc.

[EvanZ]

I'm a GSW fan (duh), and I think we have < 5% chance of winning a title. Honestly, < 1% is probably more like it. I think we can make a pretty good run though in the playoffs, maybe make it past the second round this year.

[Crow]

My immediate reaction to the term "contender" was that it should be reserved for teams with a 15-20+% chance of winning the title but given the further exploration of this topic recently I would still apply it to teams with a 10% chance. 5% chance? That is a tougher call. I guess it depends on the context and how much folks care about being realistic. Below 3% chance I don't think should be called contenders in many or any circumstances. A team can be pretty good and still have less than a 3% chance at a title. Winning 4 series in pretty tough.

[poothroat]

sharps are betting the futures, but mostly as information plays. I was personally able to move the line at MGM, Caesars, and Cantor on Houston from 25-1 to their current odds, I think around 10-1~ Likewise, someone (not me) was able to bet Brooklyn down immediately after the trade from 40-1, to I think, 15-1 now.

I don't think any of the available bets have good value at the moment.

To answer the OP, the only team we KNOW that has a >10% chance is Miami. It's possible the number of other teams with >10% ranges from 0 to 7 or so. I don't think anyone really knows the answer. Too much uncertainty at this point.

[poothroat]

I'm a GSW fan (duh), and I think we have < 5% chance of winning a title. Honestly, < 1% is probably more like it. I think we can make a pretty good run though in the playoffs, maybe make it past the second round this year.

GSW is definitely much higher than 1%. And definitely much lower than 5%.

One of the main things to consider when projecting futures is the distribution of potential outcomes. As currently constructed, I don't think GSW is much higher than 1%, but they have the pieces to be able to become a team that is. Most of the time, they are going to enter the postseason and be fodder for the big dogs. But in some universes, they are able to add a difference maker via trade, or some combination of internal growth and health (their own and competitors) drives them to become legit contenders.

[EvanZ]

I'm a GSW fan (duh), and I think we have < 5% chance of winning a title. Honestly, < 1% is probably more like it. I think we can make a pretty good run though in the playoffs, maybe make it past the second round this year.

GSW is definitely much higher than 1%. And definitely much lower than 5%.

So like 3%?

[Bobbofitos]

I'm a GSW fan (duh), and I think we have < 5% chance of winning a title. Honestly, < 1% is probably more like it. I think we can make a pretty good run though in the playoffs, maybe make it past the second round this year.

GSW is definitely much higher than 1%. And definitely much lower than 5%.

So like 3%?

:thumb:

I like your powers of deduction

[Crow]

I checked around a bit and there appears to be a lot of variance right now in how many teams are given odds that translate to a 10+% to win the title among various reports about betting books. I saw as low at 2 and as many as 6. Most had 4-5. Several teams are getting in the 7-10% range and either falling just short or just making the 10% level.

[talkingpractice]

As of today (ofc including consideration/discounting of possible future events), I don't see how anyone but MIA or OKC could have better than a 10% shot.

Whoever is going long the current next-tier teams* at prices ~10% is losing the plot. The hold is going to go steadily down as the season progresses. If you sum the implied win probabilities for all 30 teams at this stage of the season based on current WA (widely-available) lines, you're going to get a number hilariously higher than 100% (representing the very high vig at this point of the season). As the season winds down, that number is going to converge back towards 100%, and several of these prices will come back to reality, while most of the others will be available at the same sort of prices they are now.

* {SAS, IND, CHI, HOU, BKN, LAC}

[v-zero]

My only real issue with OKC is that they have a massive hazard drop-off. If either of Durant or Westbrook are injured for the playoffs then they basically have no chance of winning. The likelihood of this is pretty low, but it certainly eats away at their chances. By comparison Miami have depth, though losing LBJ would see them fall off the cliff too. The Spurs probably have more depth than both, but are in a more precarious position with respect to the injury status of their best players. I hope/expect to see Pop play Parker, Duncan and Manu for more or less 2000 minutes each (perhaps more for Parker/less for Manu) during the regular season.

[poothroat]

I'm going to respectfully disagree. That issue is not unique to OKC, and OKC's stars have a better track record health wise (latest westbrook injury notwithstanding) than other teams. The exception would be Miami, who could win if Wade was injured, partially because LBJ is so good and partially because of the overlap between LBJ's skills and Wade's. If you look at SAS (parker/duncan), MEM (gasol/conley), LAC (cp3/blake), HOU (harden/dwight), CHI (noah/rose), IND (hib/george), all of their title odds would fall off a cliff if one of those guys was injured, and all are at least as likely as durant/westbrook to get injured, IMO anyway. I don't think any of those teams could win a title if one of the guys I listed was injured.

I guess Brooklyn is the team that could withstand an injury the best.

[v-zero]

I was really only contrasting OKC to Miami and the Spurs - OKC just happen to be the only top-tier team with such a problem from my point of view. Losing Duncan would probably sink the ship for San Antonio, but I am not convinced that losing Parker would - Ginobili could fill in on ball-handling duties for Parker in the playoffs.