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Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Oct 15, 2013 11:29 pm
by mark kieffer
Also going back to the Nuggets: SCHOENE has them finishing 7th in the west...
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Oct 15, 2013 11:41 pm
by Mike G
Minutes / 82
Code: Select all
.Utah 2013 2014
Favors 22 30
Hayward 26 32
Kanter 13 22
Williams 21 24
Burks 14 24
Lucas 10 14
Biedrins 6 12
Evans 3 10
Jefferson 7 12
Mcguire 3 10
Holiday 2 10
Rush 0 8
Machado 0 8
.Jazz 126 216
When I gave them their 2012 minutes, they were expected to win
-5 games.
Also going back to the Nuggets: SCHOENE has them finishing 7th in the west...
I have them 3 wins better than 7th in the West.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Oct 15, 2013 11:54 pm
by mark kieffer
Lucas is going to start at the point, Machado is going to play significant minutes too probably, especially if Burke is out for a while
Jefferson has been playing more like 20 mins/game in the preseason, so you have to figure he will have significant minutes as long as he stays healthy.
Also probably the tough thing with your model is that you are using career data or previous year data, correct? Or do you have players at a trajectory? Is it assumed some of the younger players improve this year or no?
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Oct 15, 2013 11:58 pm
by mark kieffer
[/quote]I have them 3 wins better than 7th in the West.[/quote]
The difference is the win total. Pelton has them winning 44 games instead of 52 or 54 or whatever you have.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:51 am
by Bobbofitos
My predictions will be submitted in a week
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:29 am
by Mike G
Or do you have players at a trajectory? Is it assumed some of the younger players improve this year or no?
I assume the younger players may take more minutes if necessary, while older players usually get less.
In the case of Utah, I gave extra minutes to older players and to younger players. I would guess the aging players' minutes would be at less than last year's rates, offsetting gains made by the youngsters.
Once I have seen teams' final rosters, I'll go to the trouble to get an average age (minutes weighted) and adjust their expected wins accordingly.
Lucas, Jefferson, and Biedrins are players I didn't expect to even be in the league, and I'm giving them 38 minutes a game (total).
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2013 2:25 am
by mark kieffer
Probably should up it to like 60
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:20 pm
by Mike G
mark kieffer wrote:Lucas is going to start at the point, Machado is going to play significant minutes too probably, especially if Burke is out for a while
Jefferson has been playing more like 20 mins/game in the preseason, so you have to figure he will have significant minutes as long as he stays healthy.
Lucas, through age 30, has started 2 NBA games. He's played in 174 games over 8 years, at 11.8 mpg. Do you have some information that he's now ready for prime time?
Machado has played 29 NBA minutes. No sign of a trajectory yet.
RJeff was still getting minutes for the Spurs 2 years ago, but he was buried in GS. Just 39 minutes in their 12 playoff games. He's just 33, but serious decline in production for several years now.
When I add 2 mpg to everyone shown on the Jazz roster (top of this page), they project to ~17 wins. However, this minute-inflation is inconsistent and I'd say optimistic.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:14 pm
by Mike G
Pelton has [Denver] winning 44 games instead of 52
Does he say why they should be 13 games worse this year?
Andre Miller is 37 y.o., and the rest are under 30. With the minutes I've projected, the team 'age' is 26.3 -- about half a year younger than last season's NBA avg. So youth seems to be on their side.
Did they dump Karl because of his legendary playoff failures? Brian Shaw seems like a pretty smart guy. Do people assume he's a lousy coach?
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:24 pm
by mark kieffer
Mike G wrote:mark kieffer wrote:Lucas is going to start at the point, Machado is going to play significant minutes too probably, especially if Burke is out for a while
Jefferson has been playing more like 20 mins/game in the preseason, so you have to figure he will have significant minutes as long as he stays healthy.
Lucas, through age 30, has started 2 NBA games. He's played in 174 games over 8 years, at 11.8 mpg. Do you have some information that he's now ready for prime time?
Machado has played 29 NBA minutes. No sign of a trajectory yet.
RJeff was still getting minutes for the Spurs 2 years ago, but he was buried in GS. Just 39 minutes in their 12 playoff games. He's just 33, but serious decline in production for several years now.
When I add 2 mpg to everyone shown on the Jazz roster (top of this page), they project to ~17 wins. However, this minute-inflation is inconsistent and I'd say optimistic.
http://espn.go.com/nba/team/depth/_/name/utah/utah-jazz
Some of those guys are going to get minutes
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:31 pm
by mark kieffer
Mike G wrote: Pelton has [Denver] winning 44 games instead of 52
Does he say why they should be 13 games worse this year?
Andre Miller is 37 y.o., and the rest are under 30. With the minutes I've projected, the team 'age' is 26.3 -- about half a year younger than last season's NBA avg. So youth seems to be on their side.
Did they dump Karl because of his legendary playoff failures? Brian Shaw seems like a pretty smart guy. Do people assume he's a lousy coach?
I think it's pretty obvious even without reading the article: Losing Iguodala is a huge downgrade man, especially defensively..... Gallo is out until mid-season..... McGee is going to probably play almost 30 minutes/game instead of the 18-20 he normally plays. Even though McGee blocks lots of shots, he's horrible defensively.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:57 pm
by xkonk
Mike G wrote: Pelton has [Denver] winning 44 games instead of 52
Does he say why they should be 13 games worse this year?
Looks like it's mostly defensive issues. Not only did they lose Iguodala, but they replaced him with a minus defender in Foye (by Pelton/SCHOENE's estimation). He notes that Chandler is the only plus defender in the roster's top nine. So I think the projection is for every game to be a shoot-out, with the offense being good enough to come out ahead sometimes but not often enough to be a real playoff threat.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 5:19 am
by Jacob Frankel
Here's my initial run at things. First model is offensive/defensive rating based, second is PER. Both are pretty "dumb" models (though the player projections are similarity score based). I'll have my more sophisticated model's projections pretty soon.
It's obvious these weren't mean regressed at all. Miami at 69 wins and Boston at 6...
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:36 pm
by 416x
Code: Select all
╔═════════════════════════════════╦═══════════════════╗
║ TEAM ║ WINS LOSS ADJ% ║
╠═════════════════════════════════╬═══════════════════╣
║ Miami 56 26 0.685 ║ ║
║ San Antonio ║ 56 26 0.680 ║
║ Houston ║ 54 28 0.664 ║
║ LA Clippers ║ 53 29 0.641 ║
║ Oklahoma City 52 30 0.634 ║ ║
║ Minnesota ║ 50 32 0.612 ║
║ Detroit ║ 50 32 0.607 ║
║ New Orleans ║ 49 33 0.602 ║
║ Dallas ║ 48 34 0.588 ║
║ Brooklyn ║ 48 34 0.581 ║
║ Portland ║ 46 36 0.558 ║
║ Atlanta ║ 45 37 0.547 ║
║ Indiana ║ 44 38 0.538 ║
║ Denver ║ 44 38 0.532 ║
║ New York ║ 43 39 0.529 ║
║ Chicago ║ 43 39 0.526 ║
║ Cleveland ║ 43 39 0.519 ║
║ Toronto ║ 41 41 0.496 ║
║ Utah 40 42 0.487 ║ ║
║ Memphis ║ 38 44 0.466 ║
║ Golden State ║ 37 45 0.454 ║
║ LA Lakers ║ 33 49 0.399 ║
║ Milwaukee ║ 33 49 0.397 ║
║ Washington ║ 32 50 0.389 ║
║ Orlando ║ 29 53 0.359 ║
║ Sacramento ║ 29 53 0.354 ║
║ Charlotte 27 55 0.335 ║ ║
║ Phoenix 25 57 0.306 ║ ║
║ Boston ║ 24 58 0.289 ║
║ Philadelphia ║ 15 67 0.177 ║
╚═════════════════════════════════╩═══════════════════╝
This is my first try at this let me know what you guys think
EDIT: sorry for format cant figure out how to align this stuff
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 2:27 am
by DSMok1
This site is useful for formatting tables in plain text:
http://www.sensefulsolutions.com/2010/1 ... table.html Use style unicode art.