Re: Four Factors Importance Using Win Probability Added
Posted: Sat Mar 07, 2026 8:02 am
I did a quick test of this(wanted to see if there were any changes from the regular season to the playoffs) and got these results.
Regular Season — No Intercept (R² ≈ 0.99)
Factor Oliver Full Past (≤2009) Recent (≥2015)
Shooting 40% 42.5% 42.0% 43.5%
Turnovers 25% 40.0% 40.8% 37.6%
Rebounding 20% 8.5% 8.2% 9.5%
Free Throws 15% 9.1% 9.0% 9.4%
Playoffs — No Intercept (R² ≈ 0.78)
Factor Full Past (≤2009) Recent (≥2015)
Shooting 43.9% 43.7% 41.0%
Turnovers 37.0% 36.9% 40.2%
Rebounding 8.7% 8.6% 12.0%
Free Throws 10.4% 10.8% 6.8%
Hacked this with an LLM so might not be accurate but it seems there's little difference between the regular season and playoffs.
And rebounding importance has grown over the years.
Regular Season — No Intercept (R² ≈ 0.99)
Factor Oliver Full Past (≤2009) Recent (≥2015)
Shooting 40% 42.5% 42.0% 43.5%
Turnovers 25% 40.0% 40.8% 37.6%
Rebounding 20% 8.5% 8.2% 9.5%
Free Throws 15% 9.1% 9.0% 9.4%
Playoffs — No Intercept (R² ≈ 0.78)
Factor Full Past (≤2009) Recent (≥2015)
Shooting 43.9% 43.7% 41.0%
Turnovers 37.0% 36.9% 40.2%
Rebounding 8.7% 8.6% 12.0%
Free Throws 10.4% 10.8% 6.8%
Hacked this with an LLM so might not be accurate but it seems there's little difference between the regular season and playoffs.
And rebounding importance has grown over the years.