Who is the next James Harden/who would you target?

[EvanZ]

Jordan Adams. Wait for it.

[Statman]

If we had the data that we have now, T-Mac would have been loved by stat geeks.

I had ZERO doubt TMac was going to be a superstar 2 months into his career. He was 18, I've never seen someone ooze such untapped potential. Couldn't take my eyes off him when he played back then.

Yes, my "analytics" back them loved him too. I made a point to watch a Raptors game whenever it was on, which was rarely.

[Mike G]

It's true, we didn't need pbp and other modern stats. Before time he left Toronto, TMac was up to 31 mpg, and 37 mpg in the playoffs.
Was PER around then? His first 3 years, he was 17, 20, 20.
I had him as a star, even discounting for less than star minutes.

Boxscore stats aren't always right, but done well, they often are.

[Crow]

Who are the next Hardens, Middletons, D Greens, Amir Johnsons, etc. in the next draft?

[Mike G]

James Harden's career trajectory in some boxscore stats:

Code: Select all

year    age   e484    PER    WS/48    BPM
2010    20     .90    14.0    .124    1.0
2011    21     .91    16.4    .156    2.3
2012    22    1.31    21.1    .230    4.5
2013    23    1.91    23.0    .206    5.5
2014    24    1.95    23.5    .221    5.7
2015    25    2.51    27.2    .277    9.1

First 3 years in OKC, next 3 in Houston.
Note the big jump in all summary stats, from age 21 to 22, 2011 to 2012. His next universal big jump is this year.

There are 60 players who are currently age 23 or younger who have played at least 240 minutes both last season and this season. On average, their PER is better this year by 1.4, WS/48 has picked up .024, and BPM is up 1.16

Giving these 3 stats equal billing, an xyz rating is the cube root of the product of their improvements in each stat.
Showing last year and this year in each number, also including Harden's 2011 to 2012 improvement.

Code: Select all

xyz     Player         Tm   GS%   mpg    - PER -       - WS/48 -      - BPM -
2.41  Rudy Gobert     Uta   .20   22   12.9   21.8    .045   .197   -4.3   6.1
1.86  Dennis Schroder Atl   .09   18    5.8   14.8   -.054   .073   -8.3  -2.7
1.70  Alex Len        Phx   .55   21    7.3   15.1    .024   .130   -5.9    .0
1.62  Otto Porter     Was   .13   18    6.0   12.0   -.006   .101   -6.8   -.2
1.30  Meyers Leonard  Por   .12   16    9.4   15.1    .086   .182   -3.3    .7

1.27 Shabazz Muhammad Min   .34   23   13.1   19.8    .053   .118   -6.2  -1.5
1.11  Khris Middleton Mil   .61   28   12.5   16.2    .053   .154   -1.5   2.2
1.05  G Antetokounmpo Mil   .82   30   10.8   15.3    .031   .125   -1.8    .9
.92   Harrison Barnes GSW  1.00   29    9.8   13.6    .070   .149   -1.4   1.2
.91  James Harden  11/12    .03   31   16.4   21.1    .156   .230    2.3   4.5

xyz     Player         Tm   GS%   mpg    - PER -       - WS/48 -      - BPM -
.84   Anthony Davis   NOP  1.00   35   26.5   31.1    .212   .281    4.5   6.4
.80   Anthony Bennett Min   .06   16    6.9   10.9   -.028   .022   -7.3  -4.7
.71   Brandon Knight   T    .98   32   16.5   18.3    .055   .124    -.9   2.0
.69   Tony Snell      Chi   .21   16    8.0   11.7    .063   .105   -3.0   -.9
.66   Reggie Bullock   T    .07    9    6.7    9.0    .019   .067   -4.7  -2.1

.66   Shane Larkin    NYK   .28   22    8.3   10.5   -.010   .040   -4.7  -2.1
.65   Phil Pressey    Bos   .00   11    8.8   11.4    .005   .058   -4.4  -2.4
.63   C.J. McCollum   Por   .00   12    9.0   11.1    .019   .074   -4.1  -1.9
.63   Derrick Favors  Uta  1.00   31   19.0   22.0    .112   .164     .7   2.3
.58   Tony Wroten     Phl   .50   30   12.9   14.9   -.025   .008   -4.6  -1.6

xyz     Player         Tm   GS%   mpg    - PER -       - WS/48 -      - BPM -
.54 Jonas Valanciunas Tor  1.00   26   16.1   20.3    .141   .194   -1.4   -.7
.53   Jared Sullinger Bos   .96   29   16.4   18.3    .091   .125    -.3   2.0
.50   Brandon Davies   T    .22   16    7.5   10.5    .008   .024   -5.9  -3.3
.44   Ben McLemore    Sac  1.00   33    7.7    9.4    .016   .040   -3.2  -1.1
.38   Bismack Biyombo Cha   .34   18   13.3   15.9    .144   .159   -2.5  -1.1
.36  M Kidd-Gilchrist Cha   .92   27   12.0   16.0    .098   .126    -.9   -.5

.34      average                           

GS% is the fraction of games the player started. The only players starting fewer games than Harden in 2012 are weak on all stats. Those going as many mpg are starting 80% or more of games.
Muhammed is an interesting case -- PER says he's great, WS says he's good, BPM says he's bad.

[ampersand5]

Rudy Gobert keeps looking more and more promising.

[Mike G]

According to b-r.com, he's

The Stifle Tower, The French Rejection, The Gobert Report, Gobzilla

Is one of these catching on?
In the last 2 weeks, his PER is unchanged, WS/48 are up just a bit, BPM down a smidge. How is he looking better?
--> He's now going 32-38 mpg.

[Dr Positivity]

The Stifle Tower appears to be the most popular so far

Gobert is deadly and looks like the #1 pick in his draft right now