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Re: Who is the next James Harden/who would you target?
Posted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 9:24 pm
by EvanZ
Jordan Adams. Wait for it.
Re: Who is the next James Harden/who would you target?
Posted: Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:15 am
by Statman
colts18 wrote:
If we had the data that we have now, T-Mac would have been loved by stat geeks.
I had ZERO doubt TMac was going to be a superstar 2 months into his career. He was 18, I've never seen someone ooze such untapped potential. Couldn't take my eyes off him when he played back then.
Yes, my "analytics" back them loved him too. I made a point to watch a Raptors game whenever it was on, which was rarely.
Re: Who is the next James Harden/who would you target?
Posted: Thu Feb 26, 2015 12:34 pm
by Mike G
It's true, we didn't need pbp and other modern stats. Before time he left Toronto, TMac was up to 31 mpg, and 37 mpg in the playoffs.
Was PER around then? His first 3 years, he was 17, 20, 20.
I had him as a star, even discounting for less than star minutes.
Boxscore stats aren't always right, but done well, they often are.
Re: Who is the next James Harden/who would you target?
Posted: Thu Feb 26, 2015 3:43 pm
by Crow
Who are the next Hardens, Middletons, D Greens, Amir Johnsons, etc. in the next draft?
Re: Who is the next James Harden/who would you target?
Posted: Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:17 pm
by Mike G
James Harden's career trajectory in some boxscore stats:
Code: Select all
year age e484 PER WS/48 BPM
2010 20 .90 14.0 .124 1.0
2011 21 .91 16.4 .156 2.3
2012 22 1.31 21.1 .230 4.5
2013 23 1.91 23.0 .206 5.5
2014 24 1.95 23.5 .221 5.7
2015 25 2.51 27.2 .277 9.1
First 3 years in OKC, next 3 in Houston.
Note the big jump in all summary stats, from age 21 to 22, 2011 to 2012. His next universal big jump is this year.
There are 60 players who are currently age 23 or younger who have played at least 240 minutes both last season and this season. On average, their PER is better this year by 1.4, WS/48 has picked up .024, and BPM is up 1.16
Giving these 3 stats equal billing, an
xyz rating is the cube root of the product of their
improvements in each stat.
Showing last year and this year in each number, also including Harden's 2011 to 2012 improvement.
Code: Select all
xyz Player Tm GS% mpg - PER - - WS/48 - - BPM -
2.41 Rudy Gobert Uta .20 22 12.9 21.8 .045 .197 -4.3 6.1
1.86 Dennis Schroder Atl .09 18 5.8 14.8 -.054 .073 -8.3 -2.7
1.70 Alex Len Phx .55 21 7.3 15.1 .024 .130 -5.9 .0
1.62 Otto Porter Was .13 18 6.0 12.0 -.006 .101 -6.8 -.2
1.30 Meyers Leonard Por .12 16 9.4 15.1 .086 .182 -3.3 .7
1.27 Shabazz Muhammad Min .34 23 13.1 19.8 .053 .118 -6.2 -1.5
1.11 Khris Middleton Mil .61 28 12.5 16.2 .053 .154 -1.5 2.2
1.05 G Antetokounmpo Mil .82 30 10.8 15.3 .031 .125 -1.8 .9
.92 Harrison Barnes GSW 1.00 29 9.8 13.6 .070 .149 -1.4 1.2
.91 James Harden 11/12 .03 31 16.4 21.1 .156 .230 2.3 4.5
xyz Player Tm GS% mpg - PER - - WS/48 - - BPM -
.84 Anthony Davis NOP 1.00 35 26.5 31.1 .212 .281 4.5 6.4
.80 Anthony Bennett Min .06 16 6.9 10.9 -.028 .022 -7.3 -4.7
.71 Brandon Knight T .98 32 16.5 18.3 .055 .124 -.9 2.0
.69 Tony Snell Chi .21 16 8.0 11.7 .063 .105 -3.0 -.9
.66 Reggie Bullock T .07 9 6.7 9.0 .019 .067 -4.7 -2.1
.66 Shane Larkin NYK .28 22 8.3 10.5 -.010 .040 -4.7 -2.1
.65 Phil Pressey Bos .00 11 8.8 11.4 .005 .058 -4.4 -2.4
.63 C.J. McCollum Por .00 12 9.0 11.1 .019 .074 -4.1 -1.9
.63 Derrick Favors Uta 1.00 31 19.0 22.0 .112 .164 .7 2.3
.58 Tony Wroten Phl .50 30 12.9 14.9 -.025 .008 -4.6 -1.6
xyz Player Tm GS% mpg - PER - - WS/48 - - BPM -
.54 Jonas Valanciunas Tor 1.00 26 16.1 20.3 .141 .194 -1.4 -.7
.53 Jared Sullinger Bos .96 29 16.4 18.3 .091 .125 -.3 2.0
.50 Brandon Davies T .22 16 7.5 10.5 .008 .024 -5.9 -3.3
.44 Ben McLemore Sac 1.00 33 7.7 9.4 .016 .040 -3.2 -1.1
.38 Bismack Biyombo Cha .34 18 13.3 15.9 .144 .159 -2.5 -1.1
.36 M Kidd-Gilchrist Cha .92 27 12.0 16.0 .098 .126 -.9 -.5
.34 average
GS% is the fraction of games the player started. The only players starting fewer games than Harden in 2012 are weak on all stats. Those going as many mpg are starting 80% or more of games.
Muhammed is an interesting case -- PER says he's great, WS says he's good, BPM says he's bad.
Re: Who is the next James Harden/who would you target?
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2015 3:16 am
by ampersand5
Rudy Gobert keeps looking more and more promising.
Re: Who is the next James Harden/who would you target?
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:13 pm
by Mike G
According to b-r.com, he's
The Stifle Tower, The French Rejection, The Gobert Report, Gobzilla
Is one of these catching on?
In the last 2 weeks, his PER is unchanged, WS/48 are up just a bit, BPM down a smidge. How is he looking better?
--> He's now going 32-38 mpg.
Re: Who is the next James Harden/who would you target?
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2015 8:28 pm
by Dr Positivity
The Stifle Tower appears to be the most popular so far
Gobert is deadly and looks like the #1 pick in his draft right now