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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2015 4:44 pm
by ampersand5
538 projections so far:
Miami 38-44
Toronto: 44-38
Philadelphia: 25-57
Houston: 52-30
Brooklyn 25-57
New Orleans: 46-36
Atlanta: 45-37
San Antonio: 56-26
Dallas: 41-41
Detroit: 38-44
Boston: 48-34
Oklahoma City: 56-26
LA Clippers: 55-27
Orlando: 37-45
Milwaukee: 36-46
LA Lakers: 27-55
Minnesota: 29-53
Indiana Pacers: 39-43
Chicago: 47-35
New York: 27-55
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:35 pm
by ampersand5
When should the deadline be?
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 3:14 am
by Crow
Traditionally it is first game tipoff. So Tuesday Oct. 27 at 8pm Eastern Time.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:55 am
by fpliii
-removed-
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:00 am
by Crow
In my opinion, win projections should be rounded to nearest win. There are no partial wins in real life NBA. Vegas straddles as the house sometimes but here I think it should be whole wins. Going to one to two decimals may be a slight advantage over not. It also adds width to score sheet. What do others think?
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:32 am
by fpliii
Crow wrote:In my opinion, win projections should be rounded to nearest win. There are no partial wins in real life NBA. Vegas straddles as the house sometimes but here I think it should be whole wins. Going to one to two decimals may be a slight advantage over not. It also adds width to score sheet. What do others think?
I have no preference.
-removed-
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:59 pm
by bbstats
official bbstats entry
Code: Select all
Team ExpW
mia 35
por 42
lal 21
bos 52
mil 38
bkn 21
atl 43
gsw 64
nop 43
lac 53
cha 38
chi 46
ind 38
okc 54
mem 48
det 39
phx 38
nyk 28
phi 23
orl 33
was 47
tor 48
sas 56
dal 39
uta 42
sac 35
hou 55
den 27
cle 57
min 28
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:15 am
by kmedved
I'd like to submit an entry too I guess.
Code: Select all
Team Wins
GSW 61
OKC 57
CLE 57
SAS 56
LAC 53
HOU 53
BOS 50
MEM 49
WAS 45
TOR 45
CHI 44
IND 43
ATL 43
NOP 41
SAC 40
MIA 40
UTA 39
POR 39
MIL 39
DET 39
CHO 38
DAL 37
PHO 37
ORL 35
NYK 31
MIN 28
LAL 26
DEN 25
PHI 20
BRK 20
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:50 am
by Mike G
Going with eWins applied to minutes submitted by K Pelton:
Code: Select all
tm W
Atl 50
Bos 38
Brk 29
Cha 35
Chi 42
Cle 51
Dal 38
Den 28
Det 42
GSW 53
Hou 54
Ind 43
LAC 57
LAL 34
Mem 47
Mia 52
Mil 41
Min 28
NOP 42
NYK 26
Okl 57
Orl 33
Phl 18
Phx 36
Por 36
Sac 43
SAS 57
Tor 45
Uta 39
Was 36
T 1230
It looks as if bbstats has 1231 wins predicted.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 2:55 am
by ampersand5
Code: Select all
+----------------+------------+
| Daniel Frank's | Submission |
+----------------+------------+
| GSW | 62 |
| SAS | 58 |
| Cle | 58 |
| LAC | 54 |
| OKC | 54 |
| Hou | 54 |
| Mem | 51 |
| Atl | 48 |
| NOP | 47 |
| Bos | 46 |
| Chi | 45 |
| Tor | 45 |
| Uta | 41 |
| Dal | 40 |
| Ind | 40 |
| Was | 40 |
| Mia | 40 |
| Cha | 39 |
| PHX | 38 |
| SAC | 37 |
| Det | 37 |
| Mil | 36 |
| POR | 35 |
| Orl | 31 |
| Min | 28 |
| Den | 27 |
| Nyk | 27 |
| BKN | 26 |
| LAL | 24 |
| Phl | 22 |
+----------------+------------+
RPM/BPM blend + I used PTPM numbers + adjusted for schedule fatigue + I rounded up for the kings/pelicans due to new coaches.
If I cared more, I would have found a way to deflate the win totals of teams at the bottom to take into account tanking.
EDIT: I found another mistake. Will reupload correct numbers tomorrow.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 2:59 am
by Crow
atl 46
bos 46
brk 24
chi 46
cho 39
cle 58
dal 37
den 29
det 35
gsw 61
hou 56
ind 42
lac 54
lal 23
mem 49
mia 41
mil 41
min 28
nop 46
nyk 28
okc 53
orl 28
phi 22
phx 39
por 34
sac 38
sas 54
tor 46
uta 40
wash 47
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 3:18 am
by Dr Positivity
Updated projections, I deleted my post earlier in the thread to avoid confusion:
East
CLE - 57
ATL - 54
TOR - 54
CHI - 47
WAS - 43
BOS - 41
DET - 39
IND - 38
CHA - 35
MIA - 34
PHI - 33
MIL - 30
ORL - 26
BKN - 20
NYK - 14
West
GSW - 66
OKC - 58
SAS - 56
UTA - 52
LAC - 52
MEM - 50
NOP - 48
HOU - 48
POR - 43
PHX - 42
DAL - 39
SAC - 36
DEN - 30
MIN - 25
LAL - 20
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 3:37 am
by AJbaskets
This is my official entry, basically only adjustment from original Nylon post is dropping MKG's minutes:
Team Wins
CLE 58
ATL 50
BOS 49
TOR 48
CHI 48
WAS 43
CHA 38
IND 42
MIA 41
DET 38
MIL 36
ORL 27
BKN 25
NYK 25
PHI 24
GSW 66
SAS 59
LAC 53
OKC 54
HOU 52
MEM 50
NOP 45
DAL 40
UTA 37
SAC 35
PHX 34
POR 33
MIN 29
DEN 28
LAL 23
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:26 am
by sndesai1
unless somebody else wants to keep track, i'm happy to do it again.
i don't necessarily see why an expected value should have no decimal places just because the results can't actually play out that way, but it looks like everybody is using whole numbers so i guess that will be the rule.
for all of the projections (such as the betting lines, five thirty eight or
this set from si) that aren't adding up to around 1230 wins, should i normalize them to 1230 and round? i think last year, i scaled every projection to exactly 1230, but not sure if that's something people agree with or not
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:41 am
by fpliii
Updated set with Pelton's final minutes (removed earlier posts):
Code: Select all
atl 47
bos 48
brk 29
chi 49
cho 35
cle 58
dal 39
den 29
det 39
gsw 61
hou 54
ind 46
lac 54
lal 25
mem 51
mia 44
mil 39
min 22
nop 49
nyk 28
okc 53
orl 28
phi 18
phx 38
por 32
sac 31
sas 57
tor 45
uta 36
was 46