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Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:08 pm
by Mike G
At .343 of the season, rookies project toward 56 eWins total for the season. This represents a major stall-out from a larger contribution (63 eW) a few weeks ago.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
9.0 Karl-Anthony Towns Min 28 .585 21.4 12.1 1.3 4.3 .9 2.7 2.6 1.89
6.9 Kristaps Porzingis NYK 27 .506 17.9 10.2 1.4 3.9 1.0 2.5 2.7 1.50
5.9 Jahlil Okafor Phl 32 .492 19.5 8.4 1.2 3.0 .3 2.9 1.4 1.15
3.7 Nikola Jokic Den 18 .604 15.5 9.7 1.9 3.4 1.3 2.0 .8 1.27
3.5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 28 .475 14.1 4.8 4.0 2.2 1.5 2.9 .2 .73
3.3 T.J. McConnell Phl 25 .516 9.5 6.1 6.2 2.4 1.7 3.3 .3 .78
2.8 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 29 .376 12.6 4.5 6.9 2.7 1.2 4.9 .8 .69
2.2 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk 22 .516 8.3 9.7 1.9 3.5 2.2 1.8 .7 .87
2.0 Stanley Johnson Det 22 .459 12.9 6.0 1.7 3.3 1.0 2.1 .2 .54
1.9 Frank Kaminsky Cha 18 .532 10.5 5.5 2.1 2.4 .6 .9 1.2 .64
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.8 W Cauley-Stein Sac 19 .589 8.6 9.0 .6 4.4 1.1 1.3 1.8 .78
1.6 Raul Neto Uta 17 .504 11.6 3.3 4.7 3.1 1.9 2.5 .1 .59
1.6 Nemanja Bjelica Min 20 .534 8.4 6.9 2.3 4.6 .5 1.1 .7 .54
1.1 Jonathon Simmons SAS 14 .599 16.7 4.6 3.5 4.1 .9 2.6 .0 .91
1.0 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .611 12.5 4.9 1.3 4.2 .6 1.5 1.4 .60
1.0 Jerian Grant NYK 17 .461 10.2 3.3 4.2 2.7 .9 2.4 .1 .35
0.9 Justise Winslow Mia 27 .483 7.7 5.8 1.5 3.0 1.0 1.9 .3 .20
0.8 Boban Marjanovic SAS 6 .614 21.7 11.1 1.2 4.9 .7 2.5 1.5 1.71
0.6 Devin Booker Phx 14 .594 11.9 2.4 1.7 3.2 1.0 1.4 .4 .30
0.6 Bobby Portis Chi 11 .500 22.7 6.9 1.3 2.3 1.8 2.3 .6 1.33
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
0.5 Larry Nance Jr. LAL 19 .507 7.6 5.6 .9 3.2 1.1 1.2 .5 .21
0.5 Trey Lyles Uta 13 .396 6.5 8.3 1.0 3.2 .2 1.1 .4 .26
0.5 Christian Wood Phl 8 .515 12.4 7.4 .6 2.2 1.2 .5 1.2 .81
0.5 Kelly Oubre Was 11 .510 11.5 5.2 .9 4.9 .6 1.0 .1 .36
0.5 Myles Turner Ind 16 .570 12.7 5.3 .3 3.9 .7 1.5 1.7 .57
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2015 12:02 pm
by Mike G
Throwing 3-days-old eW/484 into a blend with PER, WS/48, and BPM, ranked by the avg of 4 'wins' estimates.
Code: Select all
winz rookies tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e484 per48 bpm48 perW WS bpmW eW
2.86 Karl-A Towns Min 822 22.4 .164 1.8 1.89 .180 .135 3.1 2.8 2.3 3.2
2.23 K Porzingis NYK 832 18.3 .116 0.7 1.50 .136 .114 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.6
1.64 Nikola Jokic Den 498 21.6 .184 2.5 1.27 .171 .149 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.3
1.16 Jahlil Okafor Phl 933 15.7 .016 -5.1 1.15 .108 .001 2.1 .3 .0 2.2
1.08 T.J. McConnell Phl 753 13.5 .042 -1.5 .78 .084 .071 1.3 .7 1.1 1.2
.94 Frank Kaminsky Cha 505 13.2 .116 -0.2 .64 .081 .096 .8 1.2 1.0 .7
.89 R H-Jefferson Brk 419 13.7 .099 1.8 .87 .086 .135 .8 .9 1.2 .8
.87 D'Angelo Russell LAL 842 12.8 -.011 -2.0 .73 .076 .061 1.3 -.2 1.1 1.3
.79 Willie C-Stein Sac 378 13.6 .119 0.9 .78 .085 .118 .7 .9 .9 .6
.76 Nemanja Bjelica Min 498 9.7 .080 0.8 .54 .043 .116 .4 .8 1.2 .6
winz rookies tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e484 per48 bpm48 perW WS bpmW eW
.66 Richaun Holmes Phl 305 16.7 .127 0.5 .60 .118 .110 .8 .8 .7 .4
.60 Justise Winslow Mia 770 7.0 .039 -1.2 .20 .014 .077 .2 .6 1.2 .3
.55 Stanley Johnson Det 652 9.3 .035 -3.4 .54 .038 .034 .5 .5 .5 .7
.54 Jonathon Simmons SAS 221 14.7 .174 0.3 .91 .097 .106 .4 .8 .5 .4
.52 Raul Neto Uta 440 10.8 .042 -1.5 .59 .055 .071 .5 .4 .6 .5
.46 Devin Booker Phx 353 11.9 .097 -2.2 .30 .066 .057 .5 .7 .4 .2
.37 Boban Marjanovic SAS 81 28.5 .305 2.6 1.71 .246 .151 .4 .5 .3 .3
.28 Larry Nance Jr. LAL 477 9.7 .024 -3.9 .21 .043 .024 .4 .2 .2 .2
.26 Christian Wood Phl 114 19.5 .140 -2.0 .81 .149 .061 .4 .3 .1 .2
.21 Bobby Portis Chi 83 20.5 .092 0.2 1.33 .159 .104 .3 .2 .2 .2
winz rookies tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e484 per48 bpm48 perW WS bpmW eW
.21 Jerian Grant NYK 474 9.0 .009 -4.9 .35 .035 .005 .3 .1 .0 .3
.19 Myles Turner Ind 127 13.6 .113 -3.2 .57 .085 .038 .2 .3 .1 .1
.18 Kelly Oubre Was 220 10.3 .069 -4.9 .36 .049 .005 .2 .3 .0 .2
.03 Trey Lyles Uta 333 5.9 .001 -5.8 .26 .002 -.013 .0 .0 -.1 .2
-.26 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 669 6.7 -.128 -6.5 .69 .010 -.026 .1 -1.8 -.4 1.0
The final 4 columns show which systems like or dislike a given player.
PER-wins add up to 20.0; WS sum to 15.3; eW and bpmW are in between.
Correlations with minutes played: eW .74, perW .64, bpmW .48, WS .17
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2015 9:34 pm
by Mike G
Emmanuel Mudiay has
by far the worst Win Share rate of any player in a >600 minute season, NBA or ABA.
Code: Select all
WS/48 player yr Tm Min PER BPM
-.128 Emmanuel Mudiay 2016 Den 669 6.7 -6.5
-.091 Winford Boynes 1981 Dal 757 6.1 -8.2
-.091 Fred Hilton 1973 Buf 731 11.2
-.091 Woody Sauldsberry 1961 StL 1491 6.1
-.090 Gary Alcorn 1960 Det 670 7.6
-.089 Cory Carr 1999 Chi 624 5.1 -8.8
-.082 Bill Mlkvy 1953 PhW 608 9.5
-.081 Jim Jackson 1993 Dal 938 11.0 -3.3
-.079 Mardy Collins 2008 NYK 634 5.9 -6.2
-.076 Sharone Wright 1997 Tor 1009 7.4 -9.5
Some shown here were also rookies, and several had brief careers.
But 35 rookies have posted worse rookie BPM; including Zaza Pachulia, Allen Houston, Kenny Carr, Dennis Schroder, Corliss Williamson.
Almost as many started with a lower rookie PER, incl. Schroder, Austin Rivers, ... Draymond Green was a 7.1
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Sun Jan 03, 2016 2:05 pm
by Mike G
At .404 of the season, rookies combine for a projected 57 eWins on the season.
A number of prominent rookies are currently injured and not contributing to this total.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.0 Karl-Anthony Towns Min 29 .572 20.9 12.1 1.4 .9 2.6 2.4 1.84
6.9 Kristaps Porzingis NYK 27 .503 17.9 10.4 1.4 1.0 2.4 2.6 1.50
5.7 Jahlil Okafor Phl 31 .495 19.6 8.7 1.2 .3 2.8 1.4 1.22
3.8 Nikola Jokic Den 18 .594 16.1 9.8 2.2 1.3 2.4 .9 1.30
3.5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 28 .474 14.2 4.9 3.8 1.5 3.0 .3 .73
2.7 T.J. McConnell Phl 23 .511 8.9 6.0 6.3 1.8 3.4 .3 .70
2.2 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 29 .376 12.5 4.5 6.8 1.3 5.0 .8 .66
2.1 Frank Kaminsky Cha 20 .509 11.8 5.5 1.9 .7 1.1 1.2 .65
1.9 Stanley Johnson Det 22 .453 12.4 5.7 1.8 .9 1.9 .2 .51
1.7 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk 22 .516 8.3 9.9 1.9 2.3 1.8 .7 .81
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.5 W Cauley-Stein Sac 18 .592 8.8 9.5 .7 1.1 1.3 1.9 .75
1.5 Raul Neto Uta 18 .491 11.2 3.3 4.5 1.9 2.8 .1 .50
1.3 Boban Marjanovic SAS 7 .640 24.1 12.7 1.0 1.1 3.1 2.3 2.10
1.3 Larry Nance Jr. LAL 20 .547 9.2 7.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 .4 .45
1.1 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .618 13.3 4.9 1.2 .7 1.3 1.7 .67
1.1 Bobby Portis Chi 16 .546 19.1 8.4 1.7 1.2 3.3 .4 1.16
1.1 Nemanja Bjelica Min 19 .522 7.9 6.5 2.2 .6 1.1 .6 .41
1.1 Jonathon Simmons SAS 13 .585 15.4 4.2 3.8 1.0 2.5 .1 .83
0.9 Devin Booker Phx 17 .598 13.1 2.5 1.9 1.0 1.7 .3 .37
0.9 Trey Lyles Uta 15 .434 7.4 8.7 1.4 .2 1.3 .4 .36
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
0.8 Kelly Oubre Was 13 .545 11.7 6.0 .9 .6 1.0 .2 .48
0.8 Cameron Payne Okl 7 .593 15.4 5.1 5.9 1.8 1.8 .2 1.29
0.8 Justise Winslow Mia 27 .489 7.8 5.9 1.6 .9 1.8 .4 .19
0.7 Willie Reed Brk 9 .602 15.1 9.4 .4 .0 1.8 2.0 1.02
0.7 Myles Turner Ind 16 .500 12.8 7.1 .4 .5 1.4 2.2 .73
East and West are evenly split in rookie eWins.
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2016 6:35 pm
by Mike G
With the season 48% finished, rookies project to total 61 eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.6 Karl-Anthony Towns Min 29 .569 20.4 12.1 1.5 .8 2.6 2.2 1.74
7.2 Kristaps Porzingis NYK 28 .510 18.7 10.2 1.4 1.0 2.4 2.6 1.51
5.6 Jahlil Okafor Phl 31 .504 19.8 8.4 1.3 .5 2.7 1.3 1.20
4.2 Nikola Jokic Den 19 .591 16.0 10.4 2.8 1.4 2.4 .9 1.39
3.4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 27 .484 14.9 4.7 4.0 1.6 3.0 .2 .78
2.9 T.J. McConnell Phl 22 .513 9.3 5.9 6.5 2.1 3.4 .3 .77
2.2 Frank Kaminsky Cha 21 .486 11.5 5.9 2.1 .7 1.2 1.0 .64
2.1 Stanley Johnson Det 22 .451 12.6 6.1 1.9 1.1 2.1 .2 .54
2.0 Larry Nance Jr. LAL 21 .555 10.2 7.9 1.0 1.5 1.1 .5 .65
2.0 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 29 .372 12.3 4.5 6.8 1.3 4.9 .8 .65
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.7 W Cauley-Stein Sac 18 .606 9.9 9.5 .6 1.0 1.2 2.1 .86
1.7 Raul Neto Uta 19 .498 11.6 3.2 4.8 1.8 2.9 .1 .53
1.6 Boban Marjanovic SAS 7 .643 25.3 13.0 1.6 1.1 2.7 2.3 2.28
1.5 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk 22 .516 8.5 9.9 2.0 2.3 1.8 .7 .84
1.5 Trey Lyles Uta 18 .478 9.1 8.5 1.5 .5 1.3 .4 .52
1.3 Devin Booker Phx 18 .580 14.3 3.3 2.0 1.0 1.9 .3 .50
1.2 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .621 14.2 5.1 1.1 .8 1.4 1.7 .73
1.2 Jonathon Simmons SAS 13 .615 16.6 4.3 3.2 .9 2.5 .2 .84
1.2 Cameron Payne Okl 10 .575 15.7 4.6 5.1 1.7 1.7 .3 1.16
1.2 Nemanja Bjelica Min 19 .560 8.2 6.4 2.2 .7 1.1 .6 .43
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.0 Bobby Portis Chi 15 .506 14.9 8.9 1.3 1.1 2.9 .9 .86
1.0 Jerian Grant NYK 16 .440 10.1 3.5 4.5 1.1 2.4 .2 .39
0.9 Myles Turner Ind 14 .536 14.2 7.8 .6 .4 1.2 2.1 .91
0.7 Kelly Oubre Was 13 .527 11.2 6.0 .9 .8 1.3 .3 .41
0.7 Willie Reed Brk 10 .580 13.3 9.0 .3 .3 1.8 1.9 .82
0.6 Justise Winslow Mia 26 .458 7.4 5.9 1.6 .9 1.8 .5 .15
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:25 am
by Mike G
At 52% of the season, rookies now project to 65 eWins on the year.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
8.9 Karl-A Towns Min 29 .568 20.5 12.4 1.6 3.9 .8 2.7 2.2 1.79
7.4 Kris Porzingis NYK 28 .520 18.8 10.0 1.5 3.8 1.0 2.3 2.6 1.54
5.9 Jahlil Okafor Phl 31 .511 20.3 8.3 1.3 2.9 .5 2.7 1.3 1.24
4.5 Nikola Jokic Den 19 .594 16.5 10.3 3.0 4.0 1.5 2.4 .9 1.47
3.1 D'Angelo Russell LAL 27 .485 14.9 4.5 4.1 2.2 1.5 3.2 .2 .72
2.9 T.J. McConnell Phl 21 .508 9.6 5.9 7.0 2.4 2.1 3.3 .3 .80
2.7 Frank Kaminsky Cha 21 .508 12.8 6.2 2.1 2.5 .7 1.3 1.0 .75
2.1 Stanley Johnson Det 22 .454 12.6 6.4 2.0 3.4 1.1 2.2 .3 .56
1.9 W Cauley-Stein Sac 18 .588 10.2 9.8 .7 4.5 1.1 1.1 2.3 .96
1.9 Larry Nance Jr. LAL 20 .555 10.2 7.9 1.0 3.3 1.6 1.1 .5 .65
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.9 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 29 .379 12.3 4.4 6.9 2.6 1.3 4.8 .8 .57
1.9 Trey Lyles Uta 18 .499 10.0 8.7 1.7 2.9 .5 1.5 .5 .62
1.8 Boban Marjanovic SAS 8 .636 26.9 13.8 1.8 4.1 1.1 2.7 2.3 2.54
1.6 Raul Neto Uta 19 .499 11.6 3.0 4.8 3.0 1.8 2.7 .1 .49
1.5 Cameron Payne Okl 11 .515 14.3 5.1 5.9 3.9 2.2 1.6 .3 1.20
1.5 Jonathon Simmons SAS 13 .626 18.2 4.4 3.4 4.8 1.0 2.5 .2 1.01
1.4 Myles Turner Ind 15 .579 16.8 7.4 .8 4.0 .4 1.3 2.3 1.14
1.4 Devin Booker Phx 19 .586 15.3 3.2 1.9 3.6 .9 2.1 .2 .50
1.4 Hollis-Jefferson Brk 22 .516 8.5 10.0 2.0 3.6 2.3 1.8 .7 .86
1.4 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .629 15.0 5.3 1.2 4.0 .7 1.4 1.6 .80
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.2 Bobby Portis Chi 15 .509 15.9 9.2 1.2 3.2 1.0 2.8 1.0 .98
1.2 Nemanja Bjelica Min 19 .545 8.4 6.4 2.4 4.9 .8 1.3 .8 .43
0.8 Jerian Grant NYK 16 .421 9.7 3.6 4.6 2.7 1.1 2.3 .3 .34
0.8 Kelly Oubre Was 14 .502 10.9 6.3 .8 4.5 1.1 1.4 .4 .41
0.7 Willie Reed Brk 10 .583 13.5 8.8 .4 4.3 .4 1.7 1.9 .85
0.6 Joseph Young Ind 6 .496 17.4 4.1 6.7 2.0 1.7 2.3 .0 1.28
0.5 Justise Winslow Mia 27 .455 7.2 6.0 1.7 2.8 .9 1.8 .5 .13
0.5 Christian Wood Phl 8 .515 14.0 8.6 .7 2.5 1.4 .6 1.4 1.09
0.4 Montrezl Harrell Hou 10 .626 11.3 5.2 1.2 4.8 .8 1.4 .8 .43
0.4 Mario Hezonja Orl 14 .527 11.4 3.9 2.2 2.9 .5 2.5 .3 .18
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Sun Feb 07, 2016 6:15 pm
by Mike G
We're at 5/8 of the season, and rookies are looking at 72 eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
9.5 K-Anthony Towns Min 30 .583 21.1 12.9 1.8 3.6 .8 2.6 2.2 1.87
6.6 Kris. Porzingis NYK 28 .514 18.0 9.8 1.5 3.8 1.0 2.3 2.5 1.42
5.6 Nikola Jokic Den 20 .589 18.0 11.1 3.5 4.4 1.8 2.3 1.0 1.71
5.4 Jahlil Okafor Phl 30 .514 19.8 8.4 1.2 3.0 .5 2.7 1.4 1.19
3.1 T.J. McConnell Phl 21 .521 10.5 5.9 7.1 2.5 2.3 3.4 .3 .87
3.1 D'Angelo Russell LAL 27 .499 15.2 4.5 4.0 2.3 1.5 3.2 .2 .70
2.6 Frank Kaminsky Cha 21 .499 12.6 6.4 2.3 2.5 .7 1.3 1.0 .73
2.6 Myles Turner Ind 20 .547 18.4 8.2 .9 4.2 .5 1.3 2.7 1.34
2.5 Boban Marjanovic SAS 9 .644 28.3 15.5 1.7 4.8 1.1 2.5 1.9 2.74
2.5 Stanley Johnson Det 24 .477 13.5 6.4 2.3 3.8 1.1 2.3 .2 .63
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
2.2 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 30 .400 12.4 3.9 6.9 2.6 1.3 4.5 .7 .61
2.2 W Cauley-Stein Sac 20 .594 10.5 10.1 .7 4.3 1.2 1.2 2.2 .90
2.1 Devin Booker Phx 23 .570 16.7 3.2 2.3 4.0 .8 2.2 .2 .60
1.8 Cameron Payne Okl 12 .527 16.3 5.2 5.9 4.1 2.2 1.7 .4 1.36
1.7 Raul Neto Uta 20 .506 12.0 3.1 4.9 3.0 1.5 2.6 .1 .50
1.5 Trey Lyles Uta 18 .482 10.0 9.0 1.5 3.1 .5 1.7 .5 .54
1.5 Jonathon Simmons SAS 14 .593 17.8 4.0 3.3 4.8 1.0 2.4 .3 .88
1.5 Larry Nance Jr. LAL 20 .555 10.1 8.3 1.1 3.5 1.5 1.2 .4 .59
1.5 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .586 15.2 6.0 1.3 4.2 .8 1.3 1.9 .89
1.5 Bobby Portis Chi 16 .487 15.1 9.0 1.1 3.5 1.1 2.2 .8 .91
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.1 Jerian Grant NYK 16 .425 9.9 3.7 5.2 3.0 1.2 2.3 .2 .43
1.1 R HollisJefferson Brk 22 .516 8.5 10.2 2.0 3.7 2.4 1.8 .7 .77
1.0 Nemanja Bjelica Min 18 .533 8.5 6.5 2.5 5.1 .9 1.5 .7 .39
1.0 Justise Winslow Mia 28 .495 7.8 6.6 1.7 3.0 1.0 1.7 .5 .22
0.8 Joseph Young Ind 9 .493 16.3 4.4 6.1 2.6 1.7 2.9 .0 1.07
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2016 10:50 am
by Mike G
At 69% of the season, rookies have slipped a bit, to 70 eWins on the year. West looking better, by 37-33.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.9 Karl-Anthony Towns Min 31 .581 21.1 12.7 1.9 .7 2.5 2.2 1.91
6.8 Kristaps Porzingis NYK 28 .516 18.4 9.5 1.5 1.0 2.2 2.4 1.44
5.5 Jahlil Okafor Phl 30 .521 20.4 8.4 1.3 .5 2.9 1.4 1.21
5.5 Nikola Jokic Den 20 .588 17.3 10.8 3.4 1.7 2.3 .9 1.68
3.0 D'Angelo Russell LAL 27 .503 15.1 4.4 4.1 1.5 3.1 .2 .67
2.9 Myles Turner Ind 21 .553 17.9 8.0 .9 .4 1.4 2.6 1.30
2.6 T.J. McConnell Phl 21 .515 10.1 5.7 6.9 2.2 3.3 .2 .75
2.6 W Cauley-Stein Sac 20 .612 11.0 9.2 .7 1.0 1.2 2.0 .99
2.5 Frank Kaminsky Cha 21 .493 12.2 6.4 2.2 .6 1.3 1.0 .71
2.4 Stanley Johnson Det 24 .471 13.2 6.2 2.3 1.0 2.3 .2 .60
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.2 Boban Marjanovic SAS 8 .651 24.6 13.6 1.4 1.0 2.2 1.6 2.40
2.1 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 30 .405 13.0 3.9 6.7 1.4 4.2 .7 .55
1.8 Devin Booker Phx 24 .551 15.3 3.2 2.5 .8 2.3 .2 .50
1.8 Bobby Portis Chi 17 .492 15.0 8.9 1.2 .9 2.0 .8 .96
1.7 Larry Nance Jr. LAL 20 .555 9.7 8.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 .5 .67
1.6 Cameron Payne Okl 12 .526 15.0 4.6 5.6 2.0 1.8 .3 1.10
1.5 Trey Lyles Uta 17 .486 10.1 8.5 1.5 .5 1.6 .5 .57
1.5 Justise Winslow Mia 28 .492 8.3 6.6 1.6 1.0 1.7 .4 .33
1.3 Raul Neto Uta 20 .516 11.7 2.9 4.6 1.5 2.6 .1 .40
1.3 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .576 14.1 5.6 1.4 .7 1.4 1.8 .79
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.2 Jonathon Simmons SAS 14 .582 15.8 4.0 2.8 .9 2.5 .3 .67
1.1 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk 22 .516 8.4 9.9 1.9 2.3 1.8 .7 .90
1.0 Nemanja Bjelica Min 18 .542 8.4 6.3 2.4 .8 1.4 .7 .42
0.9 Jerian Grant NYK 16 .437 10.0 3.6 5.0 1.1 2.2 .2 .37
0.8 Willie Reed Brk 10 .584 13.8 8.4 .5 .5 1.6 1.8 .90
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2016 2:48 pm
by Mike G
At 76% of the season, rookies still project to add 70 eWins on the year.
Bigs dominate the rookie class. Sorted by position:
Code: Select all
e82 center tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.2 Karl-A Towns Min 31 .585 20.8 12.6 2.1 .8 2.6 2.1 1.95
5.7 Nikola Jokic Den 20 .580 17.0 11.1 3.5 1.7 2.4 1.0 1.71
5.3 Jahlil Okafor Phl 30 .528 20.2 8.2 1.3 .5 2.8 1.4 1.23
2.9 Myles Turner Ind 22 .533 16.9 7.6 .8 .5 1.4 2.3 1.18
2.7 Frank Kaminsky Cha 21 .500 12.2 6.5 2.3 .7 1.3 .9 .76
2.4 W Cauley-Stein Sac 20 .609 10.8 8.9 .7 1.1 1.1 1.9 .93
2.2 Boban Marjanovic SAS 8 .655 23.6 13.6 1.4 .9 2.1 1.5 2.40
e82 power forward tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.8 K Porzingis NYK 28 .514 18.3 9.3 1.5 1.0 2.1 2.5 1.48
1.8 Bobby Portis Chi 18 .474 14.0 9.2 1.4 1.0 2.0 .7 .92
1.6 Larry Nance LAL 19 .556 9.5 8.3 1.2 1.4 1.1 .5 .66
1.5 Trey Lyles Uta 16 .485 10.4 8.3 1.4 .5 1.6 .5 .54
1.4 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .568 13.3 6.1 1.4 .8 1.5 1.9 .78
0.9 Willie Reed Brk 10 .558 13.5 8.8 .7 .5 1.4 2.3 1.02
0.9 Nemanja Bjelica Min 18 .542 8.2 6.4 2.4 .8 1.4 .6 .40
e82 small forward tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.1 Stanley Johnson Det 24 .471 13.0 6.2 2.4 1.0 2.2 .2 .58
1.3 Justise Winslow Mia 28 .489 8.0 6.8 1.7 1.0 1.7 .5 .28
0.9 R H-Jefferson Brk 22 .516 8.2 9.9 2.0 2.3 1.8 .7 .83
0.7 Mario Hezonja Orl 16 .538 12.0 4.2 2.2 .7 2.3 .3 .27
e82 shooting guard tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.0 Devin Booker Phx 25 .545 15.6 3.1 2.7 .7 2.2 .2 .53
1.1 Jonathon Simmons SAS 14 .580 15.2 4.0 2.8 .9 2.4 .2 .64
e82 point guard tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
3.5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 28 .514 16.0 4.3 4.2 1.5 3.0 .2 .76
2.4 T.J. McConnell Phl 20 .510 9.8 5.6 7.0 2.1 3.1 .2 .73
2.3 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 30 .409 12.9 4.0 6.8 1.3 4.0 .7 .58
1.4 Cameron Payne Okl 11 .526 14.4 4.5 5.7 1.9 1.9 .3 1.05
1.2 Raul Neto Uta 20 .516 11.5 2.8 4.3 1.5 2.4 .1 .36
0.7 Jerian Grant NYK 15 .438 9.6 3.6 4.9 1.2 2.3 .2 .32
Actually, the positions rank alphabetically:
Code: Select all
pos eWins
C 32.1
PF 15.8
PG 12.7
SF 5.8
SG 4.0
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 1:03 pm
by caliban
Crashing your thread with some rookie numbers if you don't mind.
Here's how the 16' rookie class looks like with the same single year blend I've used for my team projections over in that tread. Named it
'cal48' here with '
cal' displaying total wins added. Sticking
cal48 with a one minute work effort dummy
ageCurve that has little to no scientific backing along with
mpg as a proxy for a hard working prospect/organisational happiness with the pick/getting the NBA-game, what have you, I'd got
calP for future potential. I also added 4 randomly selected player seasons from previous rookie classes as reference points for good fun. Davis for excellence, Deng's for a long and productive NBA career. Barnes for okay rotation minutes and Rivers for scrub status/out of the league unless your dad has some serious pull which isn't very likely for any of these players. Oh, almost forgot. Added Parker & Randle's for injury reasons as well.
This is all in good fun and
calP could off course be improved quite easily with a better age curve(s for position) and weighting for said curve and mpg. Might put some time into improving this in the future.
edit - spelling (not my first language)
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:49 pm
by Mike G
More good numbers is always better.
Sticking cal48 with a one minute work effort dummy ageCurve that has little to no scientific backing along with mpg as a proxy for a hard working prospect/organisational happiness with the pick/getting the NBA-game, what have you, I'd got calP for future potential.
So, what is
calP, that it gets bigger for weaker players?
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2016 10:17 am
by caliban
Mike G wrote:More good numbers is always better.
good?
haha
Mike G wrote:
Sticking cal48 with a one minute work effort dummy ageCurve that has little to no scientific backing along with mpg as a proxy for a hard working prospect/organisational happiness with the pick/getting the NBA-game, what have you, I'd got calP for future potential.
So, what is
calP, that it gets bigger for weaker players?
I just inverted cal48 and mpg to go along with a low age number being a good thing for future potential, hence a low calP indicates a more productive NBA career. If I change the agecurve around instead to avoid confusion it would look like this.
Hopefully I understod you correctly sir.
Edit - scaled it down to make Davis a '10' and Rivers a '0' for effect
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Sun Mar 20, 2016 4:30 pm
by caliban
Better age weighting but still needs some improvement. Also added all the rookie seasons from the last 5 draft classes for reference. Once again, cal48 & cal is fairly accurate and is the single year blend used in the teamproj and calP is a fun attempt at assessing future career potential based on the rookie season alone or rather, how good has a players rookie season really been?
Jokic and Richardson are the 15-16' draft steals and Heat really hit the home-run with both of their picks and looks set with youth for the near future. Orlando and Hezonja fans should be pretty bummed out. Okafor pick also looks like a dud. Towns being the clear cut best player in the draft is debatable with Jokic a lite bit a head at the moment but it might be worth noting that the last few Euro-bigs looks to come out swinging hard their rookie year to then never really elevating. This might be something to look into.
Looking back it's also sad how many career altering injuries there's been with Beal looking like the next great SG before all the injury trouble. The positive outlier is K. Thompson who didn't score too high in calP his rookie year, off course playing alongside Curry is an outlier by itself and it would be interesting seeing him playing in an other environment.
Will update with the final numbers from this years class after the season and might ad more years and put some time into the weighting in the future.
In short: This is all based on rookie year data and aims to better evaluate rookie seasons.
Edit: Datapoints and spelling, this is not my first language if you haven't already noticed
.
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Mon Mar 21, 2016 3:54 pm
by Mike G
With 85% of the season completed, rookies now project to 74 eWins total.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.0 Karl-Anthony Towns Min 31 .590 21.0 12.3 2.0 .8 2.6 2.0 1.87
6.3 Kristaps Porzingis NYK 28 .507 18.2 9.1 1.6 .9 2.2 2.4 1.39
5.9 Nikola Jokic Den 21 .580 17.3 11.4 3.7 1.7 2.3 1.0 1.74
4.6 Jahlil Okafor Phl 30 .531 20.3 8.1 1.3 .5 2.8 1.4 1.19
3.6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 28 .517 16.5 4.3 4.2 1.5 3.0 .2 .78
3.1 Myles Turner Ind 23 .529 17.0 7.9 .8 .5 1.5 2.2 1.18
2.7 Frank Kaminsky Cha 21 .504 12.3 6.7 2.3 .8 1.3 .8 .77
2.6 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 30 .424 13.7 4.0 6.7 1.2 3.9 .6 .62
2.4 T.J. McConnell Phl 20 .519 10.2 5.4 7.0 2.1 3.1 .2 .73
2.4 Willie Cauley-Stein Sac 20 .606 10.9 8.8 .7 1.0 1.0 1.8 .93
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.3 Devin Booker Phx 26 .538 16.3 3.1 3.0 .7 2.4 .2 .58
2.1 Stanley Johnson Det 24 .470 12.6 6.3 2.5 1.1 2.2 .3 .59
2.0 Boban Marjanovic SAS 8 .645 23.5 14.1 1.5 .9 2.0 1.5 2.38
2.0 Bobby Portis Chi 18 .470 13.6 9.5 1.5 .9 1.8 .7 .95
1.8 Trey Lyles Uta 16 .509 12.0 8.0 1.4 .5 1.6 .5 .68
1.7 Larry Nance Jr. LAL 20 .551 9.6 8.4 1.1 1.4 1.2 .5 .67
1.6 Justise Winslow Mia 29 .492 8.2 6.6 1.8 1.1 1.6 .5 .35
1.3 Raul Neto Uta 19 .533 12.5 2.8 4.3 1.5 2.5 .1 .40
1.3 Cameron Payne Okl 12 .520 14.0 4.6 5.7 1.8 1.9 .4 .97
1.2 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .560 13.3 6.1 1.4 .9 1.6 1.9 .75
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.1 Jonathon Simmons SAS 14 .582 15.5 4.1 2.9 1.0 2.4 .2 .69
1.1 Willie Reed Brk 11 .577 14.3 9.0 .7 .5 1.4 2.3 1.12
1.0 Jerian Grant NYK 16 .456 10.5 3.8 4.7 1.3 2.3 .3 .40
0.9 Rondae H-Jefferson Brk 22 .520 8.3 9.9 2.0 2.3 1.8 .7 .85
0.8 Josh Richardson Mia 18 .587 11.7 3.5 2.2 1.3 1.2 .9 .50
0.8 Nemanja Bjelica Min 17 .537 8.2 6.3 2.5 .8 1.5 .6 .40
0.7 Mario Hezonja Orl 16 .527 11.9 4.3 2.4 .7 2.4 .3 .27
0.7 Salah Mejri Dal 10 .651 12.5 10.6 .4 .6 1.7 3.1 1.19
0.6 Montrezl Harrell Hou 10 .636 12.3 5.5 1.6 1.0 1.5 .8 .63
0.6 Kelly Oubre Was 11 .499 10.8 6.6 .6 1.2 1.6 .4 .40
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2016 1:47 pm
by Mike G
At 91% of the season (last night's games not included), rookies headed to almost 76 eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.2 K-Anthony Towns Min 32 .592 20.9 12.2 2.1 .8 2.5 1.9 1.90
6.5 Kristaps Porzingis NYK 28 .513 18.3 9.1 1.6 .9 2.1 2.3 1.43
6.0 Nikola Jokic Den 21 .570 16.5 11.6 3.7 1.7 2.3 1.0 1.74
4.3 Jahlil Okafor Phl 30 .531 20.0 8.1 1.3 .5 2.8 1.4 1.19
3.3 Myles Turner Ind 23 .524 16.5 8.1 .9 .6 1.6 2.2 1.19
3.2 D'Angelo Russell LAL 28 .506 16.0 4.2 4.0 1.5 3.0 .2 .71
2.6 Frank Kaminsky Cha 21 .501 12.1 6.5 2.2 .8 1.2 .9 .76
2.6 W Cauley-Stein Sac 20 .595 11.3 8.8 .7 1.1 1.1 1.7 .96
2.6 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 30 .423 13.7 4.2 6.4 1.2 3.8 .7 .61
2.5 Devin Booker Phx 27 .539 16.7 3.1 3.1 .7 2.6 .3 .60
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.3 T.J. McConnell Phl 20 .517 10.2 5.3 6.8 2.1 3.1 .2 .71
2.1 Boban Marjanovic SAS 9 .636 22.2 13.2 1.5 .9 1.9 1.3 2.22
2.1 Bobby Portis Chi 17 .467 13.2 9.5 1.5 .8 1.7 .7 .96
2.0 Trey Lyles Uta 16 .507 12.3 8.1 1.5 .6 1.6 .5 .74
2.0 Stanley Johnson Det 23 .469 12.3 6.3 2.4 1.1 2.4 .2 .55
1.7 Larry Nance Jr. LAL 20 .536 9.2 8.2 1.1 1.4 1.1 .6 .67
1.7 Justise Winslow Mia 29 .493 8.3 6.5 1.9 1.1 1.6 .4 .37
1.3 Raul Neto Uta 19 .536 12.3 2.9 4.1 1.4 2.5 .0 .40
1.2 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .557 13.1 6.1 1.4 .9 1.5 1.9 .78
1.2 Cameron Payne Okl 12 .505 13.2 4.4 5.4 1.8 2.0 .3 .86
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.1 Jonathon Simmons SAS 14 .575 15.1 3.9 2.7 1.0 2.2 .2 .65
1.1 Willie Reed Brk 11 .584 14.4 9.2 .7 .5 1.3 2.3 1.18
1.0 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk 21 .534 8.6 9.7 2.2 2.4 1.7 .6 .93
1.0 Josh Richardson Mia 19 .578 11.7 3.4 2.2 1.3 1.1 .8 .50
1.0 Nemanja Bjelica Min 17 .546 8.7 6.5 2.4 .8 1.5 .6 .47
Making notable moves since 5 weeks ago:
Code: Select all
0.7 Devin Booker Phx
0.5 Nikola Jokic Den
0.5 Emmanuel Mudiay Den
0.5 Trey Lyles Uta
0.4 Myles Turner Ind
0.3 ? Josh Richardson Mia
0.3 Karl-Anthony Towns Min
0.3 Bobby Portis Chi
0.3 Willie Reed Brk
...
-0.3 Kristaps Porzingis NYK
-0.3 T.J. McConnell Phl
-0.4 Stanley Johnson Det
-0.4 Cameron Payne Okl
-1.2 Jahlil Okafor Phl
I'm guessing on Richardson, since he didn't appear on my Feb. 25 installment -- he was less than 0.8 projected eWins, and now he's at 1.0